Senators vs. Maple LeafsFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalScotiabank Arena
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| TOR | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonSergei Bobrovsky over 25.5 total saves −105
Why Crease Workload likes it: Bobrovsky's .875 save rate is 3.0 points below .905 after one start; regression favors the over.
Crease WorkloadUp 16% return this season · 87 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-1 on this game · −2% return
- Auston Matthews under 3.5 shots on goal−100%Lost
Taken at −140 on FanDuel
NHL Player Prop EdgeUp 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 10.38 individual shots/60 over 20.8 minutes projects to roughly 3.6 attempts before matchup adjustment.
- Ottawa allowed only 24.4 opponent shots on goal per game in 2025-26, a strong suppression profile.
- Matthews is projected on Toronto's first line, preserving his normal ice-time pathway.
- Toronto's projected lines are not confirmed at this wake; a role change would alter the estimate.
- Sergei Bobrovsky over 25.5 total saves+95%Won
Taken at −105 on DraftKings
Crease WorkloadUp 28% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Bobrovsky's .875 save rate is 3.0 points below .905 after one start; regression favors the over.
- Most likely loss: Ottawa produces 25 or fewer shots, leaving Bobrovsky below 26 saves.
Questions
Who won Senators vs. Maple Leafs?
The Senators won 3–2 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.