Ducks vs. JetsFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalCanada Life Centre
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
| WPG | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Top model pick, graded
WonAnaheim Ducks first-period total under 1.5 44¢
Why First Frame Sum likes it: Matchup rate blend implies 5.92 total goals: ANA 3.00 GF/3.33 GA, WPG 3.00 GF/2.50 GA.
First Frame SumDown 16% this season · 87 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-3 on this game · −13% return
- Beckett Sennecke over 2.5 shots on goal−100%Lost
Taken at −125 on DraftKings
2 modelsNHL Shot Volume Hunter, Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixWhy 2 models like it
NHL Shot Volume Hunter- 3.67 SOG average across three 2026 games, exceeding the 2.5 line by 1.17.
- 21:35 average ice time and 5:29 average recent power-play time.
- The current-season sample is only three games, creating meaningful estimate uncertainty.
Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix- 11 shots in three 2026-27 games: 3.67 per game, 46.7% above the 2.5 line.
- Sennecke is listed as a participant on the fresh PrizePicks board for this game.
- The official preview lists projected, not confirmed, goaltending and line combinations.
- Cutter Gauthier over 3.5 shots on goal−100%Lost
Taken at −120 on DraftKings
NHL Shot Volume HunterDown 10% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 5.33 SOG average across three 2026 games, beating the 3.5 line by 1.83.
- 20:57 average ice time with 5:30 average recent power-play time.
- Expected on Anaheim's top line; October 9 expected-lines page lists him in the Ducks power-play personnel.
- Only three completed games in the current-season sample; the baseline is not stable.
- Anaheim Ducks first-period total under 1.5+127%Won
Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US
First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Matchup rate blend implies 5.92 total goals: ANA 3.00 GF/3.33 GA, WPG 3.00 GF/2.50 GA.
- Nesting that total with 1.76/2.06/2.14 period means and 0.20 empty-net/OT allowance gives a first-period mean near 1.69.
- Poisson P(0 or 1 first-period goals) is 49.7%, versus a 0.44 Polymarket US under price: roughly 5.7 points of edge.
- ANA and WPG rates come from only 3 and 4 games, so early-season variance is substantial.
- Anaheim Ducks to win+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US
Scratch TapeDown 35% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Josh Morrissey is confirmed out; his 24.72 average minutes were 8.2% of Winnipeg's skater-minutes, with positive 5v5 SAT/USAT relative.
- My conservative rebuild assigns Winnipeg a 0.25-goal net hit, moving Anaheim's win chance to 50.3%.
- The 48¢ exchange price is cheaper than the US sportsbook references: Anaheim was +100 at FanDuel and +105 at DraftKings.
- The 0.25-goal Morrissey impact estimate is model judgment, not a directly observed lineup-market number.
Questions
Who won Ducks vs. Jets?
The Ducks won 5–1 on Friday, Oct 9, 2026.