Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina: Final Score & Model Picks

FinalBrooks Stadium (SC)

Liberty2-1

34–17Final

Coastal Carolina1-2

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
LIB	10	0	10	14	34
CCU	3	14	0	0	17

Top model pick, graded

Won

Liberty Flames spread −2.5 51¢

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 11-10 on this game · +6% return

Liberty Flames spread −2.52 models agree
+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket
2 modelsCFB Heater, Saturday Board Pairs
Why 2 models like it
CFB Heater
- 0xb4f also holds a small 303-share Coastal Carolina position, indicating partial hedging.
Saturday Board Pairs
- current 3-game average: Liberty off EPA/play +0.17 vs Coastal +0.12; success rate .482 vs .444.
- Current explosive rates are close (.139 Liberty, .152 Coastal), but Liberty owns the clearer down-to-down efficiency edge rather than relying on variance.
- Coastal's 2026 defense grade is 78.5 versus Liberty's 76.1, and home field can keep this inside 2.5.
Liberty Flames wins 1st half2 models agree
−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsFront Runner, Kickoff Script
Why 2 models like it
Front Runner
- Pinnacle full-game Liberty -138 / Coastal +123, scaled to first-half margin; raised 5-point bar used.
- Only three 2026 first-half samples per team; Liberty margins ranged from -11 to +16, Coastal from -24 to +21.
Kickoff Script
- Liberty averaged +0.17 offensive EPA/play over three 2026 games versus Coastal's +0.12.
- Liberty's 48.2% offensive success rate and 2.59 points/drive exceed Coastal's 44.4% and 2.15.
- Only three games of 2026 data; Liberty's 51-point Ball State result may inflate its efficiency sample.
Coastal Carolina +7 spreadFavoriteHigh conviction
−100%Lost
Taken at 71¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Coastal +7 pushes if Liberty wins by exactly 7; Coastal +7.5 wins that outcome.
- ProphetX priced Coastal +7 at 70.59¢ versus 71.43¢ for +7.5: only a 0.84-point premium for the half-point.
- Coastal +7 loses on an 8-point-or-larger Liberty win; the push protection is not a win.
Under total 49.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
DriftUp 12% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Three-game scoring averages project 48.2 points: Liberty 29.3 for/19.3 against, Coastal 27.7 for/20.0 against.
- Pinnacle at exact 49.5 devigs to 48.4% under (over -115/under -101); model under 53.0%, gap 4.6p.
- Movement is nearly flat: under was 48.1% at open and 47.6% current, a 0.5p move toward over, below the 3p warning.
- Only three games per team make the 48.2-point projection an early-season, high-variance estimate.
Over 50.5 total
+95%Won
Taken at −105 on DraftKings
Short WeekDown 35% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Season scoring averages are 29.3 Liberty and 27.7 Coastal, a 57.0-point baseline versus 50.5.
- Liberty averages 0.17 offensive EPA/play and 2.59 points/drive; Coastal averages 0.12 and 2.15.
- Both projected starters are active in current-season game logs: Deshawn Purdie has 563 passing yards, Deuce Bailey 826.
- The 57.0 baseline is only a three-game sample and includes opponent-quality noise.
Liberty Flames wins 1H by over 1.5 points
−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- mean +1.4, full-game SD 23.15, half SD 16.4; P(Liberty 1H margin >1.5) ≈49.8%.
- Pinnacle's full-game Liberty -2.0 supports a small Liberty mean edge before half-time variance scaling.
- Liberty >1.5 YES is 44¢ while the nested >2.5 contract is 45¢; adjacent pricing is backwards.
- Only three 2026 games per team; PPD/EPA and opponent adjustment are noisy.

Show all 20 picks

Game total under 50.5 points
−100%Lost
Taken at −115 on DraftKings
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 48.2 points is the combined average from both teams' first three games; my weather-adjusted fair total is 47.5.
- Liberty leads the efficiency matchup at +0.17 offensive EPA/play, but both defenses allow roughly -0.04 EPA/play.
- Both teams have equal five-day rest after playing September 19; no short-rest scoring boost is present.
- Both quarterbacks have been efficient, and Coastal's offense posts a 0.15 explosive-play rate.
Liberty Flames to win
+75%Won
Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Liberty's current three-game offense averages +0.17 EPA/play versus Coastal's +0.12.
- Liberty's offense also owns the better current success rate, 48.2% to Coastal's 44.4%.
- The matchup read remains positive after opponent defense: Liberty offense versus Coastal defense is the cleaner efficiency side.
- Coastal is at home and its offense has the higher current explosive-play rate, 15.2% to 13.9%.
1H total over 23.5
+75%Won
Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Pinnacle full-game 49.5; possession scaling produces 28.1 first-half points, not flat 24.75.
- Three-game 2026 sample: 66.7 Liberty and 66.0 Coastal plays per game; 5.94/5.37 plays per drive implies 11.8 raw first-half drives.
- Only three 2026 games per team; Liberty's 3.06-second pace row is an apparent data outlier.
Liberty Flames spread −4.5
+144%Won
Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Backing Liberty, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- The moneyline read was conflicted; the total market is closed to this desk because an under-45.5 position is already open. Spread -4.5 is the only qualifying game-market band.
- Book levels tie 3-3, so this read has only two supporting measures rather than full three-measure corroboration.
Total points under 45.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 39¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Book levels are tied 3-3, so levels do not corroborate; backing Under, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- This is venue self-reference, not an independent statistical edge; the order-flow hypothesis may simply be wrong.
Total points under 47.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- CFB histogram: totals 48, 50 occurred 705 of 10,838 games (6.5%), below that ladder interval's implied 11.4 points.
- The 2026 teams' six recent game totals average 48.2; Liberty and Coastal average +0.17 and +0.12 offensive EPA/play.
- Key-number mass is present: 47 occurred 213 times and 44 occurred 271 times in 10,838 FBS games.
- Most likely loss: Liberty's fast 20.94-second pace and explosive offense turn this into a 49-plus shootout.
Liberty Flames spread −3
+117%Won
Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Liberty’s 2026 offense is +0.17 EPA/play versus Coastal’s +0.12; sharp context made Liberty a 2-point favorite.
- CFB margin histogram: exact 3-point margins occurred 978 of 10,838 regular/postseason games, 9.0%.
- Most likely loss: Liberty wins by 1-2 or Coastal wins; exactly 3 is a push.
Game total under 51
0%Push
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- ProphetX full-game total is 51; team-total rungs sum to 50.
- 2026 three-game sample: Liberty .482 success/.140 explosive; Coastal .444/.152; Coastal averages 26.21 seconds per play.
- 2026 PFF offense grades are 72.8/68.7 versus defense grades 76.1/78.5, modestly favoring the under.
- Both teams are Group of Five, so this is capped at LEAN rather than RECOMMENDED.
Jamari Person over 2.5 receptions
−100%Lost
Taken at +108 on FanDuel
Touch Share SaturdayDown 53% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Target share rose 11.1%→16.7% across 3 games; yards per target fell 16.3→9.3 (-43%).
- Targets were 3/2/4 against 27/21/24 team pass attempts; share CV is 30.1%, below the stability cutoff.
- Route rate stayed high at 93.5%, 100.0%, 100.0%; the opportunity role persisted through the yardage crater.
- Most likely loss: Liberty controls the game on the ground and Person finishes with two receptions.
Liberty Flames −1.5
+87%Won
Taken at −115 on DraftKings
RnjDown 65% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Market spans Liberty -1.5 to -2.5, a full 1.0-point cross-book discrepancy; DraftKings offers the best number.
- Last-four matchup EPA differential is +0.29 for Liberty: offense +0.20 versus Coastal defense allowed -0.09.
- Points per drive favors Liberty 2.75 to 1.81, a +0.94 scoring-efficiency proxy.
- The 1.0-point spread variance only clears the minimum; it misses the 1.5-point high-conviction bar.
Liberty Flames over 26.5 team points
+87%Won
Taken at −115 on FanDuel
Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 77% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted EPA delta is +0.01/play: Liberty offense .1746 minus Coastal defense allowed .1668 across three 2026 games.
- Pace supports possessions: Liberty 20.94 seconds/play and Coastal 26.43, versus a 27.0-second current FBS median.
- Only three qualifying 2026 games and 11 Liberty red-zone trips make this a partial, volatile sample.
Deuce Bailey over 1.5 passing touchdowns
+140%Won
Taken at +140 on FanDuel
Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 3 of Bailey's last 5 qualifying games cleared 1.5 passing TDs; all 3 games this season did.
- Bailey has thrown 8 TDs in his three 2026 starts, including 2, 3, and 3.
- FanDuel +140 implies 41.7%; the five-game hit-rate model is 60%, an 18.3-point value margin.
- Only five qualifying appearances inform the exact-line model; the sample is thin.
game total over 58.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 33¢ on ProphetX
CFB Moonshot SinglesUp 44% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Estimated fair probability 27%; fair odds approximately +270 versus ProphetX +205.
- Liberty and Coastal average 56.3 combined points per game through three current-season games.
- Liberty averages 2.65 points per drive in the recent five-game window; Coastal adds 1.59.
- Forecast rain and wind gusts near 25 mph could suppress passing efficiency and total scoring.
Liberty Flames −3
+117%Won
Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Liberty's first three 2026 games average +0.17 offensive EPA/play and .482 success rate, versus Coastal's +0.12 and .444.
- Liberty just beat Ball State 51-15; Coastal lost at Delaware 22-14, supporting a Liberty matchup edge beyond the current home-field adjustment.
- Main structural edge is PROJECTION: the early-season efficiency gap is larger than the market's short favorite spread implies.
- Three-game samples are thin and opponent-adjustment is incomplete; Liberty also lost outright to James Madison.