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FinalMemorial Stadium (Bloomington
Northwestern2-0
23–29Final
Indiana3-0
Score by period
Team1234T
NU0071623
IU21031429

Top model pick, graded

Won

Over 49.5 total 52¢

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 13-11 on this game · −1% return

  1. Northwestern Wildcats spread +20.53 models agree
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsProphetX CFB Lines, Kickoff Ledger +1
    Why 3 models like it
    ProphetX CFB Lines
    • Model margin mean is Indiana by 18.3 with SD 17.0: Northwestern +20.5 fair probability 55.0%.
    • Discounting blowout/garbage-time margin inflation narrows the distribution toward the dog while preserving the efficiency-based Indiana edge.
    • Indiana's current offense averages 0.47 EPA/play and 4.62 points per drive; sustained explosiveness can produce a 28-plus-point win.
    Kickoff Ledger
    • Indiana’s +0.48 offensive EPA/play leads Northwestern’s defense at -0.15, but not by a 20-point matchup margin.
    • Northwestern’s offense posts +0.27 EPA/play against Indiana’s -0.18 defensive EPA allowed; both defenses are efficient.
    • Indiana’s +0.48 offensive EPA is a three-game sample against weaker opposition; schedule adjustment is uncertain.
    Long Week
    • Northwestern posts 0.27 offensive EPA/play, 54.7% success, and -0.15 defensive EPA/play allowed.
    • Indiana is stronger at 0.48 offensive EPA/play, but its 55-0 Howard result inflates the early sample.
    • Indiana's efficiency edge is real: 0.56 success rate versus Northwestern's 0.55 and a superior -0.18 defensive mark.
  2. Northwestern Wildcats to winLong shot3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 8¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsCFB Moonshot Singles, Resting Money +1
    Why 3 models like it
    CFB Moonshot Singles
    • Northwestern is 2-0 with 41-7 and 34-18 wins, while Indiana's current 3-0 record and 95.8 grade justify the long price but not a zero chance.
    • Indiana owns a 95.8 team grade versus Northwestern's 81.5 and has won five straight including the 2025 title run.
    Resting Money
    • Book levels are tied 3-3, so the signal clears on two measures: thin at quote plus deep behind it.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate: Northwestern 3 versus Indiana 3.
    Long Way Home
    • Early efficiency is tighter than the moneyline gap: Northwestern defensive EPA allowed -0.15 versus Indiana -0.18; success rates 54.7% versus 55.5%.
    • The live ProphetX +20.5 spread is near even, preserving a credible upset path rather than a pure lottery profile. Single-leg ticket; no combination tax.
    • Indiana's +0.48 offensive EPA/play versus Northwestern's +0.27 can produce the multi-score lead that kills upset equity.
  3. Indiana Hoosiers spread −20.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Key Number CFB
    Why 2 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Indiana averages +0.48 EPA/play and .555 success rate in 3 current-season games; Northwestern's defense allows -0.15 EPA/play in 2.
    • Indiana's 2026 PFF team grade is 95.8 versus Northwestern's 81.5; pass-block grades are 81.4 versus 59.0.
    • Northwestern has only 2 current-season efficiency rows; prior-season data is the fallback, so this is capped at LEAN.
    Key Number CFB
    • The -20.5/-21 rung pair is not flat: historical CFB margin 21 occurred 398/10,840 times, versus 178 at 20 and 147 at 22.
    • Indiana's 2026 offense averages +0.48 EPA/play versus Northwestern's +0.27, while Indiana allows -0.18 defensive EPA/play.
    • Indiana's 2026 efficiency sample is only three games; Northwestern's is only two.
  4. Over 49.5 total
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket

    CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
  5. Indiana Hoosiers to winFavorite
    +8%Won

    Taken at 93¢ on Kalshi

    D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Bayesian-shrunk EPA: Indiana offense +0.38 versus Northwestern +0.11; defensive EPA allowed -0.13 versus -0.04.
    • Indiana's latest team grade is 95.8 versus Northwestern's 81.5, with a home venue and seven days of rest.
    • Current-season samples are small: Indiana has three games and Northwestern two; shrinkage relies materially on 2025 data.
  6. Game 1H total over 27.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Season-to-date PPD averages are 3.12 for Northwestern and 4.61 for Indiana.
    • EPA and success-rate inputs support a productive opening script: .274/.483 offensive EPA and 54.7%/55.5% success.
    • Pace inputs (30.11 and 32.79 seconds per play) support roughly 30, 31 projected first-half points.
    • Only two Northwestern games and three Indiana games supply the 2026 sample.
Show all 19 picks
  1. Game total over 51
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX quotes over 51 at 47.17¢ (+112) versus over 51.5 at 46.30¢ (+116): only a 0.87-point premium for the inferior half-point contract.
  2. Northwestern Wildcats spread +20 (push if Indiana wins by exactly 20)
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Northwestern +20 pushes at an Indiana margin of exactly 20; +20.5 has no push.
    • The comparison rung is ProphetX self-reference, not an independent sharp-book validation.
  3. Northwestern Wildcats spread +24.5
    +56%Won

    Taken at 64¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are 3 versus 3; backing Northwestern +24.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Only two measures support the read; book-level corroboration is tied 3-3.
  4. Game total points over 50.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 completed CFB games average 54.96 points; this ladder's main number is 50.5.
    • Indiana's 2026 offense is +0.48 EPA/play and Northwestern's is +0.27; recent scoring averages are 48.3 and 37.5.
    • QB gate passed: official checks identify Josh Hoover and Aidan Chiles, matching each team's latest pass-attempt leader.
    • Most likely loss: Indiana's strong defense controls the game, then the Hoosiers coast after building a lead.
  5. Indiana Hoosiers first-half spread NO 13.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • FBS 2026 sample: 468 completed games, full-game margin SD 18.80; square-root scaling gives first-half SD 13.29, not 9.40.
    • The model is a lean, not a recommendation: only two Northwestern and three Indiana games inform the matchup-specific efficiency read.
  6. Indiana Hoosiers spread −19.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −120 on FanDuel

    RnjDown 65% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Spread variance is exactly 1.0 point: FanDuel -19.5 versus DraftKings -20.5.
    • Last-four offense-versus-opponent-defense EPA matchup favors Indiana by +0.40 per play: +0.55 versus +0.15.
    • Indiana's last-four offensive EPA is +0.39/play versus Northwestern's +0.09.
    • The 1.0-point discrepancy only clears the minimum; the 1.5-point high-conviction threshold is not met.
  7. Aidan Chiles over 0.5 passing touchdowns
    +60%Won

    Taken at −166 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 70% model hit rate: Chiles recorded at least one passing touchdown in 7 of his last 10 appearances.
    • Estimated value margin is 7.59 percentage points before accounting for variance.
    • FanDuel's live board confirms Chiles is priced for this game and lists -166.
    • Indiana's defense is 7th of 151 in current yards allowed, and has allowed only 16 points through three games.
  8. Aidan Chiles over 183.5 passing yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 60% model hit rate: Chiles cleared 183.5 in 6 of his last 10 appearances.
    • Estimated value margin is 6.73 percentage points before accounting for variance.
    • FanDuel's live board confirms Chiles is priced for this game and lists -114.
    • Indiana ranks 7th of 151 current teams in defensive yards allowed at 203.3 per game, a difficult matchup.
  9. Game total under 49.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • game advanced window has Northwestern at 0.15 EPA/play and .5035 success, while Indiana allows -0.03 EPA/play.
    • Both offenses are relatively deliberate: Northwestern 30.38 and Indiana 32.06 seconds per play; current-season PROE is +0.01 and -0.02.
    • Indiana's 91.0 PFF defense grade and Northwestern's 70.0 defense grade support a one-sided, clock-draining script rather than a shootout.
    • Northwestern has only 2 current-season efficiency rows; the 5-game window blends prior-season games, so this is capped LEAN.
  10. 1H total over 26.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Script adjustment is only +1.0 point: weighted explosive rate is 18.5%; negative weighted PROE of -1.7% limits the uplift. Projection: 26.8.
    • H1 drive window: Northwestern averaged 6.5 and Indiana 5.0; weighted pace was 30.2/32.8 seconds per play, a 31.5-second blend.
    • QB gate cleared live: PennLive names Josh Hoover and Aidan Chiles; warehouse attempts also give each the clear plurality of starts.
    • Only two Northwestern and three Indiana games inform the drive sample; variance is wide.
  11. Northwestern Wildcats spread +16.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • live books show Indiana -20.5, while ProphetX offers Northwestern +16.5, a four-point better underdog entry.
    • Live cfb_query confirms Indiana leads only 2-0 with 4:53 remaining in the first quarter.
    • Indiana can separate quickly; Northwestern +16.5 loses at a 17-point margin or worse.
  12. Game total under 50
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Indiana and Northwestern posted -0.35 and -0.33 defensive EPA/play in their latest games.
    • Both offenses are relatively deliberate: latest pace was 32.98 seconds/play for Indiana and 30.82 for Northwestern.
    • Indiana has consecutive shutouts entering this game; Northwestern's latest game totaled 48 points.
    • Most likely loss: Indiana's offense reaches 40-plus and Northwestern adds enough scoring to clear 50.
  13. Total points under 49.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 pace averages are 32.59 seconds/play Indiana and 30.11 Northwestern.
    • Indiana PROE averages -0.02; Northwestern +0.01 across the current two- and three-game samples.
    • Explosive rates are similar at roughly 18.5%; defensive EPA allowed averages -0.18 Indiana and -0.15 Northwestern.
    • Northwestern has only two 2026 advanced rows; the 13-game 2025 fallback is flagged and makes this a LEAN.

Questions

Who won Northwestern vs. Indiana?

Indiana won 29-23 on Friday, Sep 25, 2026.

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