FinalProtective Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAVY | 0 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 20 |
| UAB | 0 | 17 | 0 | 7 | 24 |
Top model pick, graded
WonUAB Blazers spread +3.5 42¢
Why Resting Money likes it: Book levels are UAB 3 versus Navy 3: thin-at-quote plus deeper total depth clears the two-of-three consistency standard.
Resting MoneyDown 3% this season · 1232 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-6 on this game · −3% return
- UAB Blazers spread +6.5+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsLong Way Home, ProphetX PairsWhy 2 models like it
Long Way Home- 2026 form points to Navy by roughly 4, below the 6.5-point main spread.
- Navy offense is +0.22 EPA/play; UAB offense is -0.11, but UAB home field narrows the gap.
- Most likely loss: Navy's explosive offense creates early separation and UAB cannot answer.
ProphetX Pairs- Action Network's Sep. 23 preview reports Navy starter Braxton Woodson out; Jackson Gutierrez is expected to take over.
- UAB's defense has allowed 0.10 EPA/play versus Navy's 0.16 through current-season games.
- Early-season sample is thin: Navy has two games and UAB three.
- Navy Midshipmen spread −12.5−100%Lost
Taken at 33¢ on ProphetX
CFB Moonshot SinglesUp 44% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 39.0% independent fair probability from Navy's 8.64-point projected margin plus its stronger recent EPA profile.
- Navy has 0.15 recent offensive EPA/play and 0.50 success rate versus UAB's -0.00 EPA/play and 0.48 success rate.
- Navy must win by 13 or more, materially beyond the current market spread near -6.5.
- Game total over 51.5−100%Lost
Taken at −105 on FanDuel
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 55.6-point offense/defense blend projection is 7.9% above the 51.5 line.
- Combined last-10 total-over rate is 60% (12 of 20); UAB has cleared this number in 7 of 10.
- Navy's expected quarterback replacement, Jackson Gutierrez, produced 100 passing yards, 75 rushing yards and 2 total TDs last game.
- Navy's last-five over rate is only 40%, so the recent signal is team-dependent rather than uniform.
- Game 1H total under 23.5−100%Lost
Taken at 74¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Q1 ended 0-0 after five drives; the season drive sample projects roughly 5.1 combined drives remaining in Q2.
- Navy averages 3.50 points/drive and UAB 2.12; a 2.65/2.43 Navy-UAB Q2 drive split gives 14.4 points before adjustment.
- First-half adjustment is only +0.5 points: mean PROE is -4.9% and explosive rate 11.8%, not a hot-script profile.
- A short-field turnover or busted coverage can create 14+ second-quarter points; the 0-0 live sample is thin.
- Navy Midshipmen spread −7−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Navy -7 pushes on an exact 7-point win; Navy -7.5 loses on that same margin.
- ProphetX quotes Navy -7 at +113 versus Navy -7.5 at +128: only 15 American points separate the rungs.
- point Navy win refunds rather than wins; the adjacent -7.5 contract would cash there.
- UAB Blazers spread +3.5+138%Won
Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Book levels are UAB 3 versus Navy 3: thin-at-quote plus deeper total depth clears the two-of-three consistency standard.
- Backing UAB +3.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- A single late book cancellation or reprice can erase this two-measure venue-self-reference signal.
Show all 9 picks
- UAB Blazers to win+233%Won
Taken at 30¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Book levels are UAB 3 versus Navy 3: the thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it pattern qualifies on two of three measures.
- Backing UAB, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- Depth stake is queued at worse prices and is not all executable at the +230 quote.
- Navy Midshipmen to win−100%Lost
Taken at 70¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Navy averages +0.22 offensive EPA/play versus UAB allowing +0.09; a +0.14 EPA/play mismatch.
- Navy's .490 success rate and .135 explosive rate exceed UAB's .476 and .101 current-season marks.
- Navy's prior-season 13-game blend was +0.13 EPA/play and .516 success rate; the two-game current sample makes this a flagged LEAN.
- Most likely loss: Navy's defense allowed +0.16 EPA/play in its two 2026 games, giving UAB a live shootout path.
- Game total over 50−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- five 2026 game totals average 54.2 points, above ProphetX's 50-point rung.
- Both defenses allowed positive EPA/play in four of five sampled games, pointing to scoring leakage.
- Combined pace averaged about 27.8 seconds per play across the teams' sampled games.
- Most likely loss: UAB repeats its 14-point, 218-yard performance and the game finishes at 50 or fewer.
Questions
Who won Navy vs. UAB?
UAB won 24-20 on Friday, Sep 25, 2026.