FinalLincoln Financial Field
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARMY | 7 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 21 |
| TEM | 7 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 17 |
Top model pick, graded
WonArmy Black Knights spread −3.5 52¢
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 9-11 on this game · −19% return
- Army Black Knights spread −3.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket
4 modelsCFB Heater, Saturday Board +2Why 4 models like it
CFB Heater- Army is only 1-1 this season after a loss to South Florida; late availability information remains incomplete.
Saturday Board- Army's current offense posted +0.41 EPA/play and 3.79 points/drive; Temple's defense allowed +0.22 EPA/play and 2.40 points/drive.
- Confirmed starters are Cale Hellums and Ajani Sheppard; Hellums led Army's latest pass attempts and Sheppard led Temple's latest pass attempts. Army efficiency edge supports the rung.
- Army has only two current-season advanced rows; the 59-3 Bryant result inflates efficiency and requires garbage-time discounting.
ProphetX CFB Lines- Army averages +0.41 EPA/play and 59.5% success; Temple averages +0.12 EPA/play and 47.5% success.
- Run-heavy, slower Army profile (32.3 seconds/play; -17.5% PROE) supports controlled possessions and the favorite margin.
- Most likely loss: Temple's passing and explosive offense exploits Army's defensive volatility and wins outright.
Saturday Board Pairs- 2026 sample (2 Army, 3 Temple): Army offense +0.41 EPA/play versus Temple defense +0.22 allowed; Temple offense +0.12 versus Army defense -0.00 allowed.
- Army owns a 60.2% success rate versus Temple's 47.5%, plus a 17.7% explosive rate versus 11.2%.
- Most likely loss: Temple turns this into a one-score game, landing inside Army -3.5 despite the efficiency gap.
- Army Black Knights to win+61%Won
Taken at 62¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsDrift, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Drift- Army efficiency: +0.41 offensive EPA/play, 60.2% success, 17.7% explosive rate; Temple: +0.12, 47.5%, 11.2%.
- Army defense allowed +0.00 EPA/play versus Temple +0.22; Army also has the rest edge, 13 days to Temple's 6.
- Partial early-season sample: Army has 2 rated games and Temple 3, so efficiency strength may be schedule-noisy.
Long Way Home- Army's 2026 profile leads Temple by 0.29 EPA/play offensively and 0.12 success-rate points.
- My projection makes Army approximately 68% to win, above ProphetX's 63.5¢ break-even price.
- Army's projection uses only two 2026 games; Temple's sample covers three games and is also noisy.
- Over 48.5 total points−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Raw Kalshi YES is 0.51, a fractional probability convention: 51c; implied price is -104; trading status is active.
- The current sample is only two Army games and three Temple games; the 59, 3 Army result and 49, 48 Temple result inflate raw totals.
- Army Black Knights−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi
Front RunnerDown 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Army season-to-date: +0.40 offensive EPA/play and 62.4% success, versus Temple +0.20 and 50.2%.
- Army defense allowed +0.14 EPA/play versus Temple's +0.26; lower is better, supporting Army's first-half direction.
- Live PBP confirms Cale Hellums and Ajani Sheppard; game is tied 7-7 after Q1, while live Pinnacle favors Army -173.
- Temple lead or a halftime tie both defeat Army YES; Kalshi's tie mid is 14.5%.
- Army Black Knights −3+87%Won
Taken at −115 on DraftKings
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Army’s offense averages +0.41 EPA/play and 60.2% success; Temple allows +0.22 defensive EPA/play.
- Temple averages +0.12 offensive EPA/play and 47.5% success against Army’s near-neutral -0.00 defensive EPA/play.
- Army’s 32.28-second pace and 18.2% pass rate fit the forecast north wind at 15, 20 mph with no rain.
- Temple has home-field advantage and Sheppard’s dual-threat ability can punish Army if its defense regresses.
- Game total over 47.5−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 scoring averages: Army 41.5 points, Temple 31.7; offense-defense midpoint projects 59.4.
- Current-season totals went over in 4 of 5 team games; pooled historical DK totals are 11 of 19 over.
- Projected 59.4 versus 47.5 is a 25.1% projection edge.
- Historical DK-total hit rate is 57.9%, below the preferred 60% L10 threshold; grade is capped in the B range.
Show all 16 picks
- Army Black Knights wins 1st Half−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Army's two-game offensive EPA/play average is +0.41 versus Temple's three-game defensive allowance average of +0.22.
- Army's average success rate is 60.2%, ahead of Temple's 47.5% offensive rate; the script edge remains Army-positive.
- Army has only two 2026 games of usable data, so the Bryant blowout can inflate its offensive averages.
- Game total under 55+45%Won
Taken at 69¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Directional coherence confirmed: this is the game-total under-55 contract, not the open Army -7 spread position.
- Army Black Knights spread −7−100%Lost
Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Army -7 pushes on an exact seven-point Army win; Army -7.5 loses there.
- ProphetX quotes Army -7 at +144 versus Army -7.5 at +154; the implied gap is only 1.61 points.
- A seven-point Army win returns stake rather than profit; only wins by eight or more cash.
- Temple Owls to win−100%Lost
Taken at 37¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Backing Temple, the thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it side, leg matches.
- Venue self-reference only; no independent order-flow confirmation validates the resting-money hypothesis.
- Game total points over 47.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 scoring averages are 41.5 Army and 31.7 Temple points per game across five completed games.
- Army posts +0.41 offensive EPA/play; Temple allows +0.22 defensive EPA/play, a favorable matchup for Army scoring.
- The latest 2026 PFF card grades Army's offense 93.3 versus Temple's defense 75.6; Pinnacle's 48-point reference corroborates the high-total direction.
- Army has only two 2026 games, so its +0.41 EPA/play is a thin-form estimate.
- Army Black Knights over 48.5 total−100%Lost
Taken at −105 on FanDuel
Long WeekDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Army averages 0.41 offensive EPA/play and 60.2% success; Temple allows 0.22 defensive EPA/play.
- Temple averages 0.12 offensive EPA/play; Army's defense allows essentially neutral -0.00 EPA/play.
- Army last played September 12 versus Temple on September 19: a 13-day versus six-day rest edge.
- Army's 32.3-second pace and 18.2% pass rate can create too few possessions.
- Army Black Knights spread −3+91%Won
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
Long WeekDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Army leads recent offense EPA/play 0.17 to 0.13 and success rate 0.51 to 0.47.
- Temple allows 0.26 EPA/play defensively versus Army's 0.06; lower is better.
- Army has 13 days since its last game versus Temple's 6, the strongest early-week edge.
- Army's defense is not dominant despite the favorable comparison; Temple can still sustain drives.
- Temple Owls first-half spread over 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 36¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle has Temple +3.5 full-game; half-margin mean scales to Army +1.75.
- 2,764-game 2023-25 signed-margin sample has SD 21.96; sqrt-half scaling gives a 15.53-point first-half SD, not 10.98.
- At the exact Temple +2.5 rung, the derived normal reference is 39.2% Temple YES.
- Only 2 Army and 3 Temple games supply the 2026 pace/efficiency inputs; opponent-adjusted first-half data is thin.
- Temple Owls alternate spread −3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 32¢ on ProphetX
CFB Moonshot SinglesUp 44% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 31.0% independent fair probability; +215 requires 31.7% to break even.
- Temple -3.5 is the highest-return qualifying longshot after the low-total and player-prop candidates.
- Temple must win by at least four; a close Army win or Temple one-score win loses.
- Army Black Knights spread −4.5−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Army's 2026 offense averages 0.41 EPA/play and 60.2% success across two games versus Temple's 0.12 EPA/play and 47.5% success across three.
- Army's 648 rushing yards against Bryant and Cale Hellums' 142 rushing yards create a repeatable clock-and-margin path.
- TIMING support: current reporting says Temple quarterback Jaxon Smolik is out of the rotation; Ajani Sheppard has taken first-team reps.
- Most likely loss: Temple's explosive offense turns a close Army win into a non-cover or a Temple outright win.
Questions
Who won Army vs. Temple?
Army won 21-17 on Friday, Sep 25, 2026.