Georgia at Ole Miss: the Rebels' best shot is Chambliss running
Georgia holds running backs to 3.3 yards a carry, but quarterbacks get 6.3, mostly in its two closest games, Auburn and Alabama. Brian Kelly wants Ole Miss to run Chambliss. It's a fair plan, not a sure one; we have Georgia by about 5.
Georgia stops running backs. Quarterbacks still run on it.
They're at home, you talked about running (Trinidad) Chambliss, I think they'll run him more.
Brian Kelly picked Ole Miss on CBS Sports HQ on Wednesday, and his plan for the upset is to let Trinidad Chambliss run. Our numbers back the idea: Georgia smothers running backs, but quarterbacks have found room against it.
That room mostly came in two games, though, and Georgia is still the better team. It's 2nd in our ratings and 2nd in the first CFP rankings; Ole Miss is 7th and 10th.
Georgia stops running backs, not running quarterbacks
Georgia's defense ranks 3rd in our ratings once you account for who it has played. Running backs and receivers have averaged 3.3 yards a carry against it, where a typical FBS defense gives up 4.9.
Quarterbacks are another story. Their designed runs and scrambles have gone for 6.3 yards a carry against Georgia, a bit more than they get on the average defense (5.5).
The only team to beat Georgia leaned on exactly that. Auburn won 27-24 in Athens with Byrum Brown running 21 times for 132 yards, not counting sacks. A week earlier, Alabama's Keelon Russell ran five times for 70 yards in a 20-17 Georgia win.
Most of that damage, though, came in those two games, Georgia's closest. Every other quarterback it has faced averaged under 5 yards a carry, on only about 25 runs. Two teams have made this plan work, not everyone.
Ole Miss hasn't used Chambliss like Auburn used Brown. He runs about five times a game, at 6.2 yards a carry, and leading rusher Kewan Lacy is out with a dislocated shoulder. Georgia knows it's coming: "We've just got to keep him in the trap," defensive tackle Elijah Griffin told the Athens Banner-Herald.
Georgia's pass rush meets the country's best pocket
Georgia's other weapon is pressure. It gets to the quarterback on 40% of dropbacks, 3rd in FBS. Ole Miss allows pressure on just 18%, the fewest in the country.
And when the rush does get home, Chambliss usually escapes. Only 8% of his pressured dropbacks have ended in a sack; the typical FBS quarterback goes down 18% of the time.
Georgia lives on pressure. Ole Miss almost never allows it.
His worst game came at Texas, the best defense in our ratings, and it wasn't the pass rush. He threw three interceptions and ran just four times for 15 yards in a 34-27 loss.
He didn't need his legs last time, either. In January's Sugar Bowl win over Georgia, Chambliss threw for 362 yards and ran only four times.
Ole Miss's defense is the bigger worry
Ole Miss can score, with the 3rd-best offense in our ratings. Its defense is 31st, and the problem is getting off the field: it ranks 107th at third-down stops.
That's bad news against Georgia, whose offense ranks 7th in our ratings and 6th in FBS at big plays. Ole Miss ranks 99th at stopping them.
The Bulldogs also keep drives alive on manageable third downs, converting 69% of the ones needing 1 to 6 yards (4th in FBS). Ole Miss allows 58% in those spots, 107th.
Ole Miss's defense struggles to get off the field
One worry for Georgia is its passing lately. Gunner Stockton threw for just 101 yards in the 27-8 win over Florida, and Georgia leaned on 217 rushing yards instead.
Our numbers make Georgia about a 5-point favorite
Georgia's edge in our ratings is worth about 7.5 points on a neutral field, based on how these ratings predicted 2025 games. Ole Miss gets about 2.5 back at home, which leaves Georgia by about 5, a 62% chance. That's a modest edge: projections like this miss by about 11 points in a typical game.
Prediction markets agree, with Georgia around 62% on Polymarket US and Kalshi Thursday morning. Josh Pate still likes Georgia, even though Chambliss has already beaten Kirby Smart's defense once.
A win keeps Georgia on track for a first-round bye. Ole Miss sits 10th, which in Tuesday's bracket means a first-round trip to Texas; beating the No. 2 team would change that. More on that in who the committee got wrong, plus the game page and our college football predictions.
Questions people ask
Who will win Georgia vs. Ole Miss in 2026?
Our ratings make Georgia about a 5-point favorite in Oxford, a 62% chance. Prediction markets had Georgia near 62% on Thursday morning. Kickoff is Saturday, Nov. 7, at 4:30pm PT.
Is Kewan Lacy playing against Georgia?
No. Ole Miss's leading rusher dislocated his shoulder against Texas on Oct. 24 and is listed out. Makhi Frazier and Shekai Mills-Knight split the carries against Auburn.
How did Auburn beat Georgia?
Auburn won 27-24 in Athens by running its quarterback: Byrum Brown ran 21 times for 132 yards, not counting sacks. Quarterbacks average 6.3 yards a carry against Georgia, mostly from Auburn and Alabama; running backs get 3.3.
Where are Georgia and Ole Miss in the CFP rankings?
In the first rankings on Nov. 3, Georgia was No. 2 and Ole Miss No. 10. That bracket gives Georgia a first-round bye and sends Ole Miss to Texas.
How we did this
Snapp's college football warehouse: ESPN play-by-play, PFF charting and official availability reports, games through Oct. 31, 2026. Ratings and carry splits use plays between FBS teams, without lopsided-score plays (2nd quarter 39+, 3rd 29+, 4th 23+), and ratings adjust for opponents. Runs leave out sacks and kneel-downs; quarterback runs include scrambles. Pressure numbers are PFF's. Projection: margin = 2.6 + 49.2 x rating gap, fit on 2025 Week 10+ games with these ratings (typical miss 11 points). Markets as of Nov. 5, 6:20am PT.