App StoreGoogle Play

Updated

FinalWrigley Field
Marlins76-80
8-2
Cubs87-69
Score by period
Team123456789101112T
MIA0001010000068
CHC0000020000002

Top model pick, graded

Won

Shota Imanaga under 17.5 outs recorded +123

Why MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded Model likes it: Projected 15.4 outs and 60% under probability; DraftKings offers +123 versus a 44.8% breakeven.

MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded ModelUp 12% return this season · 78 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 10-19 on this game · −31% return

  1. Chicago Cubs to winFavorite4 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 66¢ on ProphetX

    4 modelsDrift, Selective Pressure +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Drift
    • Cubs are 87-69 with +152 run differential; Miami is 76-80 with −3.
    • Cubs vs RHP: .325 xwOBA; Marlins vs LHP: .305 xwOBA, supporting the home-side rating.
    • A 3.2-point model gap is moderate, not oversized; one-game baseball variance remains wide.
    Selective Pressure
    • Cubs are 87-69 with a +152 run differential and .591 Pythagorean win rate; Miami is 76-80 with a −3 differential.
    • Shota Imanaga: 3.81 xERA and 1.11 WHIP; Janson Junk: 4.42 xERA and 1.34 WHIP.
    • The 65.5¢ price is near the desk's 0.66 upper band; the modeled edge is modest and variance dominates.
    Fade the Arm
    • Janson Junk's 2026 xFIP is 4.60 and xERA 4.42; his L3/L5 ERAs are 8.18/5.31.
    • Junk's TTO3 xwOBA is .4049 versus .3333 in TTO1, a specific contact-quality decay signal.
    • Shota Imanaga is the opposing starter and his snapshot xERA is 3.81; a strong Cubs offense may not overcome a poor home-start performance.
    Undertow
    • Own matchup read agrees: Imanaga's .301 xwOBA-against and 8.82 K/9 beat Junk's .322 and 6.16; Miami's bullpen has 115 pitches in three days versus Chicago's 99.
    • Pinnacle's devigged fair probability is 64.8%, so the placement margin is narrow rather than a large model edge.
  2. Chicago Cubs F5 winner (first 5 innings)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Janson Junk's L5 WHIP is 1.33 with a 5.31 ERA; the away-starter Gone-by-Six mirror favors Chicago.
    • Chicago's top three average .3488 xwOBA versus right-handers; Miami's top three average .3375 versus left-handers.
    • Listing is open and tradable with both sides quoted: Cubs yes 0.54, no 0.47; 1.01 sum passes the 3-point depth check.
    • Both starters average under 4.7 innings over their L5 logs, Imanaga 4.20 and Junk 4.07, so coverage is full but workload downgrades this to Tier 2.
  3. No 9th-inning drawLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 27¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket US anchors: Cubs 65¢ and full-game Over 6.5 at 52.5¢; both imply the same low-scoring Cubs-favored game.
    • Pinnacle reference agrees: Cubs −196 with a 6.5 total, independently supporting the anchor direction.
    • 26 regular-season totals: 7,201 games, mean 8.88, median 8, p25 6, p75 11, right-skew 0.77.
    • Bullpen quality, leverage, and game state can make ninth-inning scoring differ materially from the flat-rate baseline.
  4. Chicago Cubs over 2.5 team runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 64¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Anchor fit: Polymarket US prices Chicago win at 69¢ and the live full-game total over 6.5 at 35.5¢.
    • Fitted anchor picture is roughly 69% Cubs, 6.5 total runs, with about 3.8, 4.0 Cubs runs after the 0-0 second-inning state.
    • 2025 MLB scoring is right-skewed: 8.89 mean total, 8-run median, 21.08 variance; the low-total anchor still leaves the favorite room to reach three.
    • The game is 0-0 through the bottom of the second, so the remaining scoring window is shorter than pregame.
  5. Miami Marlins team total under 2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed nine-man Miami lineup faces lefty Shota Imanaga; Marlins vs LHP xwOBA is .3048 over 1,379 PA.
    • Imanaga allows .301 xwOBA season-to-date; Chicago used 7 bullpen innings and 99 pitches over three days.
    • No coherence fire: team-total midpoint estimates sum near 7.0 versus the 6.5 game total, only 0.5 runs apart.
  6. Janson Junk under 3.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −160 on BetMGM

    K-Zone FadeUp 39% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Junk's five-start K/9 is 5.31 versus a 6.16 season mark, a declining trend proxy.
    • Junk averaged 69.0 pitches over his last three starts and 68.2 over his last five.
    • The lineup gate passes by only 0.12 percentage points, so a small lineup change could erase the edge.
Show all 26 picks
  1. Shota Imanaga under 17.5 outs recorded
    +123%Won

    Taken at +123 on DraftKings

    MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded ModelUp 27% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected 15.4 outs and 60% under probability; DraftKings offers +123 versus a 44.8% breakeven.
    • Last five starts averaged 12.6 outs and 77.2 pitches; recent workload is well below the 88.1-pitch season average.
    • Counsell-era Cubs starters average 15.69 outs, with a 16-out median and 18-out upper quartile.
    • Season under 17.5 is only 15 of 30; the 60% projection is a modest qualifying edge.
  2. Total runs under 6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    Parity DeskUp 29% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Best US book is FanDuel Under 6.5 at −102; 48¢ is more favorable than its 50.5% implied price.
    • Pinnacle exact-rung quote is Over −112 / Under +100; multiplicative devig makes Under fair 48.6%.
    • Ledger: Cubs 0.00; Marlins −0.50 runs from .3048 xwOBA vs LHP below the .310 threshold; adjusted total 6.15.
    • The total is only 6.5, so seven or more runs loses; Chicago enters at 5.35 team runs per game.
  3. Shota Imanaga over 5.5 strikeouts
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi

    Pesto ChangeupUp 9% over 82 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Depth is routine: ttop3 PA nearly matches ttop1/2; decay is absent versus ttop2, with K% rising and xwOBA improving.
    • none, last-five K counts were 8, 1, 4, 4, 4; ordinary strikeout variance and early contact can leave him below six.
  4. Deyvison De Los Santos under 0.5 RBIFavorite
    +16%Won

    Taken at −630 on DraftKings

    Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • −630 DraftKings price passes the strict −300 to −1000 prop gate.
    • De Los Santos recorded 0 RBI in all 10 most recent games (10/10 under 0.5).
    • Versus left-handers, his .2627 xwOBA is 15% below the .309 league weighted baseline.
    • The handedness split is only 13 plate appearances, so the 15% advantage is sample-thin.
  5. Game total runs over 6.5
    +87%Won

    Taken at −115 on DraftKings

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected 7.3 runs; fair total line 7.0; Over 6.5 win probability 59.1%; push probability 0% (model run 6:12 PM CDT).
    • Chicago owns a .3253 xwOBA and .4277 SLG versus right-handed pitching; all nine starters were verified at 6:10 PM CDT.
    • Miami starter Janson Junk carries a 4.50 ERA, 4.42 xERA and .322 xwOBA allowed; his last-five ERA is 5.31.
    • 61°F with a 14-mph wind blowing in from center field at open Wrigley suppresses home runs and carry.
  6. Shota Imanaga under 5.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +105 on DraftKings

    K’sUp 9% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model blends 23.3% L5 K rate with 24.1% season rate: 23.6% adjusted.
    • Recent workload is 17.6 TBF and 4.2 IP per start versus 22.3 TBF and 5.48 IP season baselines.
    • Projected 19 TBF yields approximately 4.5 expected strikeouts; Poisson/NB P(K≤5) estimates 64, 70%.
    • The recent workload sample is only five starts and includes a two-inning outing, creating leash uncertainty.
  7. Janson Junk over 4 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 62¢ on Kalshi

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed Cubs lineup is contact-heavy versus righties: 21.7% lineup K rate.
    • Last-5 Ks: 4, 0, 4, 2, 2; last-10 total: 27 Ks in 10 starts.
    • No official pitch cap is posted today; a normal 90-pitch outing could reach four Ks.
  8. Janson Junk under 14.5 outs recorded
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −133 on DraftKings

    BelloUp 7% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20.33 innings across Junk's last five starts: 12.2 outs per start, under 14.5 in four of five.
    • Last three starts average 3.67 innings and 18.82 pitches per inning; workload has not produced length.
    • Miami's bullpen has thrown only 32 pitches over three days, supporting an earlier hook.
    • Clayton McCullough is the Marlins manager; M-Factor 1.0, middle ground without a documented extreme hook pattern.
  9. Miami Marlins −1 run lineLong shot
    +270%Won

    Taken at 27¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Miami −1 pushes on exactly a 1-run win; Miami −1.5 loses there.
    • ProphetX prices Miami −1 at 26.67¢ (+275) versus Miami −1.5 at 23.53¢ (+325): only 3.14¢ for the whole-number protection.
    • Miami wins by 2+ for a win, exactly 1 for a push, and any Cubs win loses.
  10. Game total under 6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    Selective PressureUp 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Own read: under roughly 55% versus a 48¢ executable price.
    • Imanaga: 3.81 xERA and 8.82 K/9; Junk: 4.42 xERA and 6.16 K/9.
    • Cubs and Marlins rank modestly in this matchup by xwOBA: .3253 versus .3048.
    • 6.5 is a thin number; a 4-3 final loses the contract.
  11. Heriberto Hernández over 0.5 hits
    +74%Won

    Taken at −135 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 80% hit-game rate over his last 10 appearances (8/10), versus 56.9% across 211 season games.
    • 2026 split versus left-handed pitching: .233 AVG and .408 xwOBA over 155 PA against Shota Imanaga's left-handed delivery.
    • Blended model: 70.8% using 60% L10 hit rate and 40% season hit-game rate; DraftKings −135 implies 57.4%, a 13.4-point margin.
    • The recent 8-for-10 hit-game run is a small sample and can regress sharply.
  12. Shota Imanaga under 17.5 outs
    +123%Won

    Taken at +123 on DraftKings

    +EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Imanaga averages 5.48 innings, or 16.4 outs, across 30 starts; only 15 reached six innings.
    • His last five starts averaged 4.20 innings and 77.2 pitches, with two of five reaching six innings.
    • Estimated under probability is 55%; DraftKings +123 break-even is 44.8%, a +10.2-point edge.
    • His season under rate is exactly 50% (15 of 30), so the edge depends on recent workload weighting.
  13. Otto Lopez over 0.5 hits
    +55%Won

    Taken at −181 on DraftKings

    +EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 184 hits in 606 AB (.304); hit in 113 of 152 games (74.3%).
    • Confirmed second in Miami's lineup, with a .340 average versus left-handed pitching over 163 PA.
    • Estimated hit probability 74%; DraftKings −181 break-even is 64.4%, a +9.6-point edge.
    • Lopez hit .207 over his last seven games, materially below his season baseline.
  14. Shota Imanaga 6 or more pitching strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Imanaga's last 10 starts averaged 4.93 IP; two ended at exactly 2.0 IP.
    • Sharp reference: Pinnacle under 5.5 at +109 devigs to 0.45 NO; F5 3.5 and Miami TT 2.5 do not contradict.
    • Season average is 5.48 IP and 8.82 K/9; six strikeouts remain reachable with normal length.
  15. Chicago Cubs run line −1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Janson Junk's 2026 profile shows 4.60 xFIP and recent ERA of 8.18 L3 / 5.31 L5 versus 4.50 season ERA.
    • Junk's TTO profile decays sharply: third-time-through xwOBA .4049 versus .3333 the first time through.
    • Cashing likelihood is better than the quoted rung because the vulnerable arm, platoon matchup and rested Cubs bullpen point the same way; price quality remains moderate, not a stale-number giveaway.
    • A one-run Cubs win loses the −1.5 despite the directional read; that is the most likely ticket failure.
  16. Chicago Cubs win first 3 innings
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • matchup-specific estimate is about 51% versus Kalshi's raw 0.46 probability (46c).
    • Chicago's posted 1-6 averages carry a .3368 xwOBA versus Miami's .3098; the Cubs' team split is .3253 xwOBA versus RHP.
    • Miami's lineup faces LHP Shota Imanaga, while Miami's LHP split is .3048 xwOBA; Chicago's RHP split is .3253 against Janson Junk.
    • The first-three market has a 0.28 tie quote; one-run sequencing and the tie outcome create substantial variance.
  17. First-inning runs: No
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Posted top-four orders are confirmed: Cubs Crow-Armstrong/Suzuki/Busch/Conforto; Marlins Hernández/Lopez/Stowers/Sanoja.
    • Full-game 6.5 total is NOT a valid RFI reference; it answers a different question across different innings, starters, and bullpens.
    • Wrigley is a 119 HR-factor park, but the live pregame wind is 14 mph in from center field.
    • Chicago's first four versus RHP carry a .3253 xwOBA proxy, so one early extra-base hit can beat NO.
  18. Game total under 7
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle holds 6.5, Under +100. ProphetX board as_of_pt: 2026-09-22T14:11:38-07:00.
    • Wrigley park factor is 106; Junk's 4.50 ERA leaves a path to eight runs.
  19. Chicago Cubs F5 to win (first 5 innings)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    Five FramesUp 9% over 37 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Aligned starter/lineup read: Imanaga L5 is 4.29 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 versus Junk at 5.31, 1.33, 5.31; Cubs top-three xwOBA averages .349 versus Miami .333, and lineup wOBA is .373 versus .266.
    • The WHIP signal is the mirror, half-weight version and is not backtested; Chicago lacks the primary home-side Gone-by-Six trigger.
  20. Game total over 6.5 runs
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    UndertowUp 2% over 123 picks

Questions

Who won Marlins vs. Cubs?

The Marlins won 8-2 on Tuesday, Sep 22, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.