App StoreGoogle Play

Updated

FinalCitizens Bank Park
Rays97-63
12-1
Phillies87-73
Score by period
Team123456789T
TB30004300212
PHI0000001001

Top model pick, graded

Won

Tampa Bay Rays to win +106

Why Brewing MLB Ml likes it: The pattern was profitable in 2024 (+10.1%) and 2025 (+10.8%), satisfying the two-of-three-season check.

Brewing MLB MlUp 27% return this season · 70 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 11-13 on this game · −7% return

  1. Tampa Bay Rays to win2 models agree
    +106%Won

    Taken at +106 on DraftKings

    2 modelsBrewing MLB Ml, Deep Book
    Why 2 models like it
    Brewing MLB Ml
    • The pattern was profitable in 2024 (+10.1%) and 2025 (+10.8%), satisfying the two-of-three-season check.
    • Rays lead current-season pythagorean win rate 55.3% to Philadelphia's 51.5%; Jax's 3.79 FIP/3.61 SIERA beat Nola's 4.80/3.90.
    • Tampa's bullpen logged 198 pitches and 11 innings over three days versus Philadelphia's 147 and 8; workload may erase the starting edge.
    Deep Book
    • Personnel gate passed. Griffin Jax and Aaron Nola were both posted; 18 starters were confirmed at 1:40pm PT, with no game-linked injury signal returned.
    • Price is 47.17¢ (+112 American) at the 1:47pm PT ProphetX pull. One-leg ticket. No parlay tax.
    • LEAN only. The 4.1x ratio is below the 10x recommended threshold.
  2. Griffin Jax under 4.5 strikeouts2 models agree
    +87%Won

    Taken at −115 on FanDuel

    2 modelsK-Zone Fade, K’s
    Why 2 models like it
    K-Zone Fade
    • Jax's last-three-start K/9 is 8.4, down from 9.47 for the season.
    • Jax averages 67.68 pitches per start, below the 88-pitch hook threshold.
    • Philadelphia's confirmed nine still includes high-impact bats such as Schwarber and Harper.
    K’s
    • 201 recent-start batters faced produced 57 Ks; removing the 10-K outlier leaves 47/183 (25.7%).
    • Jax logged 23 Ks in 91 L5 batters faced and only 17.7 L3 batters faced per start.
    • Ramon De Jesus carries a mildly positive Jax called-strike fit delta (+0.01).
  3. Philadelphia Phillies to win2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsSelective Pressure, Fade the Arm
    Why 2 models like it
    Selective Pressure
    • Aaron Nola is the verified probable: 4.11 xERA and 2.79 ERA over his last three starts.
    • Philadelphia's bullpen has worked 14.0 innings in seven days versus Tampa Bay's 19.33; both clubs have zero back-to-back relievers.
    • Tampa Bay has the better current split versus right-handers: .264/.419 versus Philadelphia's .244/.399.
    Fade the Arm
    • Griffin Jax's 4.35 xERA is 0.98 runs above his 3.38 ERA, signaling run-prevention risk.
    • Jax's second-time-through-order xwOBA is .374 versus .285 first time through; the decay supports Philadelphia late in his outing.
    • Nola is also vulnerable by profile: 4.54 ERA, 4.11 xERA, and a 3.82 xFIP, so Philadelphia's edge is not one-sided.
  4. No 9th-inning draw
    +213%Won

    Taken at 32¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Moneyline anchor implies 53% Phillies; full-game total implies a roughly 7-run center.
    • Empirical 2025-26 regular-season totals are right-skewed: 2,402 games averaged 8.96 runs, with 68.5% reaching 7+.
    • A flat nine-inning allocation of the game anchor implies roughly 53-55% for an inning tie, not 74%.
    • Ninth-inning scoring can differ materially from a flat-rate process; bullpen quality and usage are not fully known.
  5. TB @ PHI first-five total under 6.5 (first 5 innings)Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 81¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Liquid anchors imply a modest scoring game: Phillies win about 53.5% and full-game total over 6.5 is 54.5%.
    • Full-game total ladder falls to 42% over 7.5 and 34.5% over 8.5, fitting a center near 7, 8 runs.
    • Both confirmed starters are on the board; first-five scoring is the lower-scoring slice before bullpens, while this rung charges only 81¢ for under 6.5.
    • The fitted first-five tail is approximate rather than a fully estimated inning-by-inning joint model.
  6. Aaron Nola over 2.5 hits allowed
    +112%Won

    Taken at +112 on DraftKings

    Starter Stress TestUp 19% over 26 picks
    Why it likes it
    • 5.4 hits allowed per start this season (173 in 32 starts) versus a 2.5-hit line.
    • Nola allowed 4, 3, and 6 hits in his last three starts; all cleared 2.5.
    • Tampa Bay averages 4.51 runs per game, clearing the offense fallback threshold.
    • Recent form is improved: 3.10 ERA and 1.03 WHIP across his last three starts.
Show all 22 picks
  1. Total runs under 6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US

    Parity DeskUp 29% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle 7: Over +105 / Under −118; devig 47.4% / 52.6%, implying 6.72 runs; derived Under 6.5 reference 48%.
    • Most likely loss path is early home-run variance at Citizens Bank Park despite the under ledger.
  2. Junior Caminero HRR YES 0.5Favorite
    +43%Won

    Taken at 70¢ on Kalshi

    Quiet BatUp 14% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Caminero bats 4th: projected 4.3 PA; lineup was posted at 1:50 PM PDT.
    • Versus RHP: 505 PA, .266 AVG, .346 xwOBA, 18.3% K rate, 34.3% hard-hit rate.
    • Aaron Nola: 29% CSW, 9.14 K/9, 4.11 xERA; Tampa's park factors favor runs 104 and homers 109.
    • Most likely loss: Nola wins early counts and Caminero fails to hit, score, or drive in a run.
  3. Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies over 0.5 first-inning runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket

    Ricky NRFI QuantUp 15% over 121 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Engine estimate: T1 xRuns 0.27 (TB), B1 xRuns 0.28 (PHI); NRFI 57.2%, fair 57.2c.
    • Polymarket No is 55.5c; the model is 1.7 percentage points higher.
    • Nola first inning: .2167 BA, 27.2% K, 16% K-BB, 64% first-pitch strikes.
    • Only 1.7 points above the 55.5c market; modest edge means variance dominates.
  4. Philadelphia Phillies inning 9 winnerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 14¢ on Polymarket US

    Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full-game Phillies moneyline is 0.53, while innings 1-8 price Philadelphia at only 0.21-0.24; inning 9 drops to 0.14.
    • F5 Phillies price is 0.40 versus Rays 0.43; first-five inning winner prices slightly favor Tampa Bay, unlike the full-game side.
    • Inning 9 draw is 0.74 versus 0.66 in innings 7-8, despite full-game over 6.5 priced at 0.55.
    • The warehouse slate omitted Philadelphia's probable starter; MLB.com lists Aaron Nola, but source timing creates residual uncertainty.
  5. Game total over 6.5 runs
    +76%Won

    Taken at −132 on FanDuel

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: 8.1 projected total runs; fair total line 8.1; Over 6.5 win probability 69%; push probability 0% (5:45 PM CDT release).
    • Official 1, 9 lineups and listed starters were confirmed at 5:40 PM CDT: Aaron Nola vs Griffin Jax.
    • Confirmed lineup xwOBA averages are .321 for Philadelphia and .310 for Tampa Bay; Citizens Bank Park carries a 1.04 run factor and 1.09 home-run factor.
    • Nola and Jax carry 2026 xERAs of 4.11 and 4.35, respectively, so efficient six-inning starts can hold scoring down.
  6. Griffin Jax 5+ strikeouts: No
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Jax's last-three K/9 is 8.4, but 207 pitches across those starts imply only 4.3 projected innings.
    • Last four pitch counts are 74, 67, 66, 63; he has no 80-pitch outing and three sub-70 outings in that span.
    • Philadelphia's confirmed nine owns a 21.3% K rate versus right-handed pitching (717 Ks/3,372 PA), below the 22% contact-heavy threshold.
    • Jax has reached 5+ Ks in 7 of his 10 2026 starts and 3 of his last 5, so the recent-hit rate is a real variance warning.
  7. Tampa Bay Rays first-five to win (first 5 innings)
    +95%Won

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    BelloUp 7% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Nola threw 88 pitches over 6.0 IP on Sept. 23; he is confirmed to start again on two-day rest.
    • F5 isolates the short-rest variable before Philadelphia's bullpen; both batting orders were confirmed at 3:50 PM PDT.
    • Jax's last three starts were exactly 5.0 IP each with a 0.60 ERA; the workload gate clears at 5.0 IP.
    • Stable recent stuff means this is a short-rest and role inference, not verified physical decay; Nola may be fully effective.
  8. Griffin Jax over 4.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −106 on DraftKings

    Señor StrikeoutsUp 4% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 9.47 season K/9; 9.13 over his last five starts and 8.4 over his last three.
    • Recent strikeout totals are 5, 7, and 2, with 5+ in two of three starts.
    • −106 is near a coin-flip price for a pitcher with this swing-and-miss profile.
    • The recent K sample is volatile: 5, 7, then 2.
  9. Philadelphia Phillies −1 run line
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Phillies −1 pushes on an exact one-run home win; Phillies −1.5 loses.
    • ProphetX prices Phillies −1 at 42.02¢ versus −1.5 at 33.33¢, only an 8.69-point gap.
    • Historical unconditional margin frequency may not equal this matchup's conditional one-run rate.
  10. Over 7 total runs
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX prices Over 7 at 47.62¢ (+110) versus Over 7.5 at 42.02¢ (+138): only a 5.60-point premium for the whole-number push state.
    • If the game finishes with 6 or fewer runs, both Over 7 and Over 7.5 lose.
  11. Chandler Simpson over 0.5 hitsFavorite
    0%Push

    Taken at −233 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 13 hits in 39 at-bats across his last 10 appearances; hit in 8 of 10 games (80%).
    • Recent .333 hit-per-at-bat rate with 3.9 average at-bats models roughly 79.5% for at least one hit.
    • DraftKings −233 implies 69.9%; estimated margin is about 9.6 percentage points.
    • The Phillies' starting pitcher was still unposted in the warehouse and absent from the live Savant preview.
  12. Griffin Jax over 12.5 outs recorded
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −109 on DraftKings

    +EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 65% estimated true probability versus 52.2% DraftKings break-even: +12.8 points.
    • Jax cleared 12.5 outs in 17 of 22 2026 starts (77.3%).
    • His latest three starts all reached five innings, with 67, 74 pitches.
    • The 22-start sample includes role and matchup variation; the 65% estimate is below its raw 77.3% hit rate.
  13. Alec Bohm over 0.5 hits
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −185 on BetMGM

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 70% L10 hit rate (7/10) clears the 60% consistency gate.
    • Griffin Jax is the listed Tampa Bay starter; his 4.35 xERA and .320 xwOBA allowed offer a workable matchup.
    • L5 hit rate is only 60% (3/5), so the recent signal is qualifying rather than dominant.
  14. Philadelphia Phillies −1
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Jax's TTO profile deteriorates: xwOBA .285 in first-time PA to .374 second-time, with K rate falling 32.4% to 19.2%.
    • Jax's 2026 xERA is 4.35 versus a 3.38 ERA, indicating the surface run prevention understates contact risk.
    • Jax has allowed zero earned runs in each of his last two starts; recent results may be masking the TTO warning.
  15. First-inning runs NO 0.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed top-three lineups face right-handers: Nola's first-inning BA is .2167 with 27.2% K; Jax's is .2195 with 33% K.
    • Citizens Bank Park is only 104 runs/109 HR, while the 14-mph wind is in from center field; the venue-specific tail is modestly suppressed.
    • Philadelphia's first three versus RHP include Harper at .4223 xwOBA and Schwarber at .3507; one early extra-base hit loses.
  16. Philadelphia Phillies run line −1
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION. Griffin Jax: 3.38 ERA. Aaron Nola: 4.54 ERA. Tampa Bay's bullpen carried 198 pitches over three days versus Philadelphia's 147.
    • The ProphetX board pull is timestamped 2026-09-26T15:44:05-07:00. Both probable-starter posts were true at 3:40 PM PDT.
    • LEAN only. The spread size ratio is 3-10x, not the 10x RECOMMENDED threshold.

Questions

Who won Rays vs. Phillies?

The Rays won 12-1 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.