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Patriots vs. DolphinsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalHard Rock Stadium
Patriots4–3
24–19Final
Dolphins1–5
Score by period
Team1234T
NE3014724
MIA3100619

Top model pick, graded

Won

Jaylen Wright under 13.5 rushing yards −137

Why Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix likes it: 0 of 5 recent rushing logs cleared 13.5; average was 7.2 yards.

Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 8% this season · 628 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 10-12 on this game · −15% return

  1. New England Patriots −74 models agree
    1.95x51¢

    Taken at −105 on BetMGM

    +95% profit if it wins

    4 modelsNFL Trench Mismatch, NFL baby +2
    Why 4 models like it
    NFL Trench Mismatch
    • Trench score: New England +0.37 vs Miami -0.64; +1.01 edge, clearing both required gates.
    • Primary pass-trench: New England +0.35 vs Miami -0.62; +0.97 edge.
    • Miami LG Kadyn Proctor is out and replacement quality is not fully normalized; New England's five OL starters are confirmed active.
    NFL baby
    • 0.255 net EPA/play advantage for New England in the point-in-time feature matrix; conservative translation projects Patriots by about 9.5 points.
    • Recent advanced form also favors New England: net EPA/play gap is 0.286, with a +0.6 recent scoring margin versus Miami's -9.0.
    • A.J. Brown is out for New England, while Miami's weather outlook includes rain and roughly 12-15 mph wind with stronger gusts.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Base cover estimate 58.5%; conservative injury-adjusted estimate 55.5%.
    • Patriots lead in season offense EPA/play, success rate, explosive rate, and points per drive.
    • Miami's recent rushing form and quarterback mobility can keep a seven-point game within range.
    Number Earned
    • Model fair spread is approximately Patriots -8; estimated cover probability 55%.
    • New England leads recent EPA/play form: -0.0299 defensive EPA allowed versus Miami's +0.0711.
    • New England's defense has allowed 30 points in its latest game; explosive-play variance can erase the matchup edge.
  2. New England Patriots to winFavorite3 models agreeHigh conviction
    1.29x78¢

    Taken at −345 on DraftKings

    +29% profit if it wins

    3 modelsBrewing NFL Ml, Pigskin Pete +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Brewing NFL Ml
    • Drake Maye is confirmed active; his 78.4 PFF passing grade and +3.6% weighted CPOE contrast with Malik Willis at 47.9 and -2.0%.
    • Under pressure, Maye has -0.05 EPA/dropback, 46.2% positive plays and 11.5% sacks; Willis is -0.37, 32.9% and 17.6%.
    • Miami is at home and its last game produced 28 points, so the Dolphins can outperform their six-game baseline.
    Pigskin Pete
    • Season EPA profile strongly favors New England: offense +0.0093/play versus Miami -0.1002; defense -0.0185 versus +0.1268 allowed.
    • Last-six efficiency also converges: Patriots offense +0.0218 and defense -0.0106; Dolphins offense -0.1002 and defense +0.1268.
    • A.J. Brown is out for New England, removing a major receiving component; Miami is at home.
    Quantitative +EV Analyst
    • +0.255 EPA/play net-efficiency gap favors New England over Miami.
    • New England success rate is 48.1% versus Miami's 41.4%.
    • Miami has home field; Christian Gonzalez and other defenders remain questionable.
  3. New England Patriots spread −73 models agree
    2.04x49¢

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    +104% profit if it wins

    3 modelsSunday Board Pairs, NFL Spread Detective +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Sunday Board Pairs
    • Six-game Miami sample versus seven-game New England sample: Patriots offense is +0.0093 EPA/play against Miami's +0.1268 defensive EPA allowed; Miami offense is -0.1002 against New England's -0.0185 defensive EPA allowed.
    • Possession and aggression favor New England: Patriots pace is 30.544 seconds/play versus Miami's 31.895, PROE is +0.0680 versus +0.0163, and New England has 10 rest days versus Miami's 7.
    • Most likely loss: Miami's home field and a backdoor score keep the Dolphins within seven; exactly seven is a push rather than a win.
    NFL Spread Detective
    • Strategy score: New England +0.451 vs Miami -0.899; EPA edge +1.350.
    • Primary EPA edge: New England +0.214 vs Miami -0.488, a +0.702 advantage; both triggers clear.
    • The current-season split uses only six-to-seven games and raw play EPA, not reliable opponent-adjusted rates.
    Long Way Home
    • Patriots lead the pregame feature read in offense EPA/play (+0.0093 vs Miami -0.1002), success rate (.4814 vs .4141), and explosive rate (.1369 vs .1088).
    • New England's defense is also better in the feature matrix (-0.0185 EPA allowed/play vs Miami +0.1268), while the Patriots have 10 rest days versus Miami's 7.
    • Most likely loss: New England wins but by 1-6 points, or Miami scores a late backdoor touchdown; exactly 7 is a push.
  4. Miami Dolphins to winLong shot3 models agree
    4.17x24¢

    Taken at 24¢ on Polymarket US

    +317% profit if it wins

    3 modelsInactives Parity, Pick with Pink (NFL) Money lines +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Inactives Parity
    • A.J. Brown was officially downgraded to out; Patriots lineup data recorded the inactive at 11:57 AM PT.
    • A WR1 absence is approximately 1.5 points under the desk's adjustment rule.
    • Brown's absence was reported before the formal inactive timestamp, so some information may already be embedded in the sharp line.
    Pick with Pink (NFL) Money lines
    • 729-game calibration maps the pregame net-EPA gap to a projected Miami margin of -2.7 points.
    • New England leads season net EPA by 0.256/play, success rate 48.1%-41.4%, and points/drive 2.025-1.757.
    • A.J. Brown and TreVeyon Henderson are confirmed out for New England; Miami also loses De'Von Achane.
    Resting Money
    • Book levels: Miami 3 vs New England 3; the thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it pattern agrees on two of three measures.
    • Directional check: backing Miami Dolphins, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • The book-level count is tied, so only two measures support the signal rather than all three.
  5. Game total under 41.53 models agree
    1.91x52¢

    Taken at −110 on BetMGM

    +91% profit if it wins

    3 modelsPigskin Pete, NFL HunterV2 +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Pigskin Pete
    • Miami’s last-six offense is -0.1002 EPA/play with a 1.757 points-per-drive rate; New England’s defense is -0.0106 EPA/play recently.
    • A.J. Brown and De’Von Achane are out, reducing explosive-play and red-zone personnel on both sides.
    • Miami’s defense allows +0.1268 EPA/play season-to-date, creating a path for New England to score efficiently.
    NFL HunterV2
    • Model total centers near 39 points; simulated under probability 58.0%.
    • New England averages 22.9 points and Miami 16.3 through the current season.
    • Miami's defense has allowed +0.071 EPA/play recently, so New England can score efficiently despite the weather.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Current-season EPA favors a controlled game: New England offense +0.009 vs Miami -0.100, while New England defense is -0.0185 vs Miami +0.1268.
    • Pace is modest at 30.54 plays/minute proxy for New England and 31.90 for Miami; no clear tempo-up signal.
    • Miami's +0.1268 defensive EPA can create short fields and cheap New England points, breaking the under in a one-sided game.
  6. New England Patriots spread −7.52 models agree
    2.17x46¢

    Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

    +117% profit if it wins

    2 modelsKey Number Pairs, ProphetX Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Key Number Pairs
    • FPI projects New England by 8.334 points and a 79.627% win probability; the -7.5 rung sits below that margin.
    • PFF 2026 grades favor New England 75.3, 58.7 overall and Drake Maye 78.4, 47.9 in passing grade versus Malik Willis.
    • Most likely loss: New England wins by 1, 7, especially exactly seven; Miami winning outright also loses the ticket.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Current-season EPA/play favors New England on both sides: offense +0.0093 vs Miami -0.1002, defense -0.0185 vs Miami +0.1268.
    • New England has 10 rest days versus Miami's 7, while recent margins are Patriots +2.4 over seven games and Dolphins -9.8 over six.
    • The ticket loses if New England wins by 7 or fewer, loses outright, or Miami covers the home-field number.
Show all 43 picks
  1. New England Patriots exact margin 1-6Long shot
    6.67x15¢

    Taken at 15¢ on Polymarket US

    +567% profit if it wins

    Exact ChangeUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's live anchor is New England -6.5 (-116), centering the margin baseline at Patriots +6.5.
    • 2016+ empirical key margins 3, 4, and 6 total 26.3% of final margins, concentrating probability inside the 1-6 bucket.
    • NE's current EPA profile is stronger: +0.009 offensive EPA/play and -0.0185 defensive EPA/play allowed, versus Miami -0.1002 and +0.1268.
    • A Patriots win by 7+ or any Miami win loses this exact bucket; final margins are inherently high variance.
  2. Jaylen Wright under 13.5 rushing yardsHigh conviction
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 0 of 5 recent rushing logs cleared 13.5; average was 7.2 yards.
    • Wright has only 20 carries across five games (4.0 per game); Ollie Gordon has 72 in the same span.
    • Miami ranks 27th in offensive EPA and 30th in pace; New England is 14th in defensive EPA allowed.
    • Wright is officially starting and De'Von Achane is out, so his workload could expand.
  3. Miami Dolphins +7.5 spread
    1.85x54¢

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    +85% profit if it wins

    Sunday LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Miami is home, neither side is on a short week, and the official venue preview calls for consistent rain/showers, modestly favoring a compressed margin distribution.
    • Most likely loss: New England wins by eight or more, clearing the key-number buffer and beating Miami +7.5.
  4. New England Patriots spread −6.5
    2.13x47¢

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    +113% profit if it wins

    Key NumberUp 8% last 7 days
  5. Under 38.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 8% last 7 days
  6. New England Patriots first-half spread over 2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 59¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • New England has 10 rest days to Miami's 7; the three-day gap is concentrated in the scripted first half.
    • EPA composite favors NE by approximately 0.255 per play, while success rate favors NE .481 to .414.
    • the spread projection agrees with the 67% New England first-half winner projection.
    • This is a derived first-half rung, not a directly quoted first-half sportsbook line.
  7. New England Patriots first-half winner
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 64¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • rest is 10 days for New England versus 7 for Miami, a three-day first-half freshness edge.
    • EPA gap: NE offense +0.009 versus MIA -0.100; NE defensive EPA allowed -0.019 versus MIA +0.127.
    • Success rate is .481 versus .414; NE pace is 30.54 seconds/play versus 31.90, with PROE +6.8% versus +1.6%.
    • QB gate passes with both starters status-null/full-practice, but lineup_status remains expected and game-day inactives are not posted.
  8. Game under 21.5 first-half total
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • REFERENCE; PROJECTION plus INTERNAL COHERENCE: Polymarket US prices Under 21.5 at 54¢, while the full-game total is 41.5 and the second-half total is 19.5.
    • 2026 points per drive are 2.02 for New England and 1.76 for Miami; their matchup EPA inputs are NE offense +0.009 versus MIA defense +0.127 allowed, and MIA offense -0.100 versus NE defense -0.018 allowed.
    • Using roughly five first-half drives per team, the matchup-adjusted scoring estimate is about 19 points before widening the distribution; the fitted under probability remains 60%.
    • The first-half market is venue self-reference, not a sharp-book reference; the selected rung has activity, but half markets remain thinner than the full-game board.
  9. DeMario Douglas over 40.5 receiving yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    NFL Usage AdventureDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 58.0 receiving-yard average over the last three (23, 86, 65); 40.5 is 70% of that sample.
    • A.J. Brown is officially out after 92.5% snaps and 35 routes in New England's last game.
    • Miami allowed positive defensive EPA/play in each of its last four regular-season games: +0.211, +0.127, +0.065, +0.414.
    • New England is a seven-point favorite, creating a second-half rush-heavy script risk.
  10. Game second-quarter total under 12.5
    +117%Won

    Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US

    Cross FootUp 114% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Internal coherence only: full-game spread rungs and 40.5, 43.5 total rungs agree on one distribution.
    • Fitted parameters: NE margin mean +7.0, SD 10.5; game total mean 41.5, SD 12.5.
    • Quarter slice uses sqrt(drives) scaling: mean 10.4 points, SD 6.25; fitted Under 12.5 probability is approximately 63%.
    • Quarter scoring is discrete; equal quarter means and sqrt-drive variance are structural approximations.
  11. Total points under 42
    1.85x54¢

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    +85% profit if it wins

    Sunday Board PairsUp 33% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Seven completed Patriots games show +0.0093 offensive EPA/play versus Miami's +0.1268 defensive EPA/play allowed; six Dolphins games show -0.1002 offense versus New England's -0.0185 defense.
    • Pace is moderate at 30.544 seconds/play for New England and 31.895 for Miami; PROE is only +0.0696 and +0.0178, limiting the possession-growth case.
    • New England has 10 rest days to Miami's 7; 2026 PFF grades also favor New England's offense 75.3, 61.0 and defense 62.8, 55.0.
    • Most likely loss: Miami's +0.1268 defensive EPA allowed creates short fields or efficient Patriots drives, while the Dolphins contribute enough late points.
  12. Miami Dolphins 1Q to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +164 on DraftKings

    NFL Division Dogs 1st Q MLDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Miami averaged 5.6 first-quarter points across its last five games (14, 7, 0, 7, 0).
    • Miami is the exact-division underdog in this AFC East matchup.
    • DraftKings offers +164, above the +157 to +160 range at other books.
    • Miami's first-quarter scoring differential was -0.4 points per game over that five-game span.
  13. New England Patriots −10.5
    2.56x39¢

    Taken at 39¢ on Polymarket US

    +156% profit if it wins

    Comfortable MarginDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle makes New England -6.5 at -114; no independent book quotes -10.5, so the exact rung is derived with key-number mass.
    • New England's point-in-time edge: +0.109 offensive EPA/play, +0.145 defensive EPA/play allowed advantage, and a 6.7-point success-rate edge.
    • New England has 10 rest days versus Miami's 7; recent form is +2.4 margin over seven games for New England versus -9.8 over six for Miami.
    • This is a derived exact-rung reference rather than a rung-matched sharp quote; the 45% estimate could be overstated.
  14. Ollie Gordon II over 61.5 rushing yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    NFL Regression RadarDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last three played games: 52 carries produced 291 yards; 72-season carries imply 244.8 yards at his 4.71 season YPC, an 18.9% actual-over-expected gap.
    • Snap share rose 56.4% to 65.2% to 83.1%; the three-game average is 68.2% with opportunity clearly increasing.
    • De'Von Achane is ruled out, supporting Gordon's recently expanding workload.
    • The 18.9% efficiency overperformance is exactly the negative-regression signal; Miami may not sustain 5.60 yards per carry.
  15. Miami Dolphins under 17.5 team points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION; Miami offense is -0.1002 EPA/play with 1.76 points/drive through six games.
    • The 17.5 board number looks spread-split: 41.5 game total and Patriots -7 imply roughly 17.25 Miami points; matchup data supports lower.
    • Miami can beat the number through short fields, defensive scores, or an unusually efficient red-zone day.
  16. Drake Maye over 21.9 fantasy points
    2.78x36¢

    Taken at 36¢ on Kalshi

    +178% profit if it wins

    NFL Fantasy Point Props SimulatorUp 44% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 23.0-point simulation mean versus Kalshi's 21.9 threshold.
    • Miami ranks 32nd in opponent EPA per play allowed; quarterbacks average 19.3 PPR points, 14% above league average.
    • Kalshi fantasy points use Sleeper PPR scoring; Maye is officially active with full Friday participation.
    • A.J. Brown is out, reducing receiving efficiency and red-zone spacing.
  17. Miami Dolphins winning margin 1 to 6Long shot
    8.33x12¢

    Taken at 12¢ on Kalshi

    +733% profit if it wins

    NFL EPA Margin SharpDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • NE last-5 offense EPA/play +0.057 vs Miami -0.060, but Miami home field keeps a narrow-win path live.
    • Recent success rate favors New England 49.1% to 43.3%; the matchup still supports a close Miami result more than a Miami blowout.
    • Key-number mass at 3 and 6 materially boosts the 1-6 band versus a plain normal distribution.
    • The model mean is approximately New England by 5.5, so this is a distribution play rather than a side-quality mismatch.
  18. Malik Willis under 176.5 passing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −120 on Fliff

    NFL Sharp EdgeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 58.5% model win probability versus Fliff's -120 price (54.5% implied; approximately 7.3% expected value).
    • Willis averages 143.3 passing yards across his last three starts (85, 137, 208); the under hit in two of three.
    • Miami's offensive line grades 55.6 in pass blocking and has allowed 64 pressures; New England's defensive line grades 71.6 in pass rush.
    • Willis exceeded 176.5 in three of six starts, including 208 yards last week.
  19. Rhamondre Stevenson under 14.5 rushing attempts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on BetMGM

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 6 of Stevenson's 7 exact 2026 game logs stayed under 14.5 attempts; the only over was 18.
    • His season average is 11.0 attempts and his last five average 9.2, with five straight unders.
    • Confirmed starter at 63.6% offensive snap share; Miami's defense has allowed 0.133 EPA/play and NE has passed on 66.0% of plays over its last six.
    • TreVeyon Henderson is out, which can consolidate Patriots backfield work into Stevenson.
  20. Rhamondre Stevenson over 0.5 touchdowns
    1.85x54¢

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    +85% profit if it wins

    PaydirtUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rhamondre is New England's RB1/workhorse: 63.6% snap share and first depth-chart slot.
    • Derived goal-line-role proxy: RB1/workhorse usage plus expected favorite script should concentrate short-yardage carries.
    • New England averages 2.86 red-zone attempts per game; Miami has allowed 16 scores on 24 opponent red-zone trips (67%).
    • The lineup is expected rather than confirmed; official inactives were not yet posted.
  21. Miami Dolphins spread +7.5
    1.85x54¢

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    +85% profit if it wins

    BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The venue offers +7.5 while the sharper reference is Patriots -6.5 and the broader market clusters at 7; the extra half-point is meaningful.
    • The game total fell from 43.5 to 41.5, a lower-scoring environment that improves the underdog's spread protection.
    • Grade B; research quality 78/100 because the price is fresh and the matchup data are current, but this exact rung is thin.
    • New England's recent offense EPA/play is -0.0299 versus Miami's -0.2296, and the Patriots have the much stronger 2026 PFF team grade.
  22. Game total under 41
    1.96x51¢

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    +96% profit if it wins

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are tied, 3-3; backing under 41, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. Reference: VENUE SELF-REFERENCE.
    • The third measure does not corroborate: both sides have 3 book levels.
  23. New England Patriots −3.5
    1.56x64¢

    Taken at 64¢ on ProphetX

    +56% profit if it wins

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are tied, 3-3; backing New England, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. Reference: VENUE SELF-REFERENCE.
    • The third measure does not corroborate: both sides have 3 book levels.
  24. Miami Dolphins +7.5
    1.82x55¢

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    +82% profit if it wins

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Miami +7.5 wins at a 7-point loss; adjacent Miami +7 pushes at exactly 7.
    • ProphetX quotes Miami +7.5 at 54.55¢ (-120) versus Miami +7 at 51.69¢ (-107).
    • The 8.597% exact-7 rate is a league-wide historical reference, not a matchup-specific projection.
  25. Rhamondre Stevenson over 23.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The latest game produced 93 receiving yards on five targets; he is a confirmed starter.
    • Miami ranks 32nd in defensive EPA allowed, a major matchup boost for New England skill players.
    • New England ranks 14th in offensive EPA and Stevenson has a meaningful route role when active.
  26. Game total over 40.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 5% last 7 days
  27. First-half total over 20.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PPD is 2.025 for New England and 1.757 for Miami; NE pace is 30.54 seconds/play with 6.8% PROE.
    • Miami allows +0.127 defensive EPA/play; New England's faster, more pass-oriented script supports early possession efficiency.
    • New England defensive EPA allowed is -0.019 and Miami offensive EPA is -0.100, a credible suppression path.
  28. Miami Dolphins first-half spread +4.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current-season first-half drive starts imply roughly 5.14 New England drives versus 4.17 Miami drives per game; PPD inputs are 2.02 versus 1.76.
    • That produces a fitted first-half margin near New England +3.1, below the board's 4.5-point Miami cushion; my win estimate is 57%.
    • The full-game New England -7.5 anchor and roughly -3.5 first/second-half centers are directionally coherent; this is a projection edge, not an arithmetic-arbitrage claim.
    • No depth-chart starters are on file, with multiple listed outs and questionables; the team-level lineup is not fully confirmed.
  29. Game fourth-quarter total over 10.5
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    NFL Garbage Time & Late Script QuantDown 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Miami is a 7-point underdog, clearing the brief's 6.5-point blowout gate.
    • Miami allowed 8.83 yards/play in qualifying fourth-quarter snaps while leading by 10+ over the last 30 days.
    • My estimated fourth-quarter scoring mean is 11.7 points versus the 10.5 market line.
    • The exact New England trailing sample is only 23 scrimmage plays and a 47.8% pass rate, so the fallback is materially less specific.
  30. Game total under 42
    1.82x55¢

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    +82% profit if it wins

    Pace LedgerDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The pace read covers 7 Patriots and 6 Dolphins completed 2026 games; Miami's recent offense is -0.2296 EPA/play with 1.346 points/drive.
    • Most likely loss: New England reaches its 24.5 team-total expectation while Miami exceeds 16.5, pushing the game to 43+.
  31. New England Patriots first touchdown
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 61¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • live offensive EPA is -0.418 for New England versus -0.754 for Miami.
    • Confirmed Rhamondre Stevenson is New England's workhorse at 63.6% snap share; TreVeyon Henderson is out.
    • Miami's confirmed RB is Ollie Gordon II, a 54.6% committee lead; De'Von Achane is absent from the confirmed game lineup.
    • The estimated edge is only about 3 probability points, so first-touchdown variance dominates.
  32. New England Patriots first scoreFavorite
    +54%Won

    Taken at 65¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • NE offense EPA/play +0.009 vs MIA -0.100; success rate 48.1% vs 41.4%.
    • NE defense allowed 12/22 red-zone conversions (54.5%); MIA allowed 17/26 (65.4%).
    • Confirmed Stevenson is the NE workhorse at 63.6% snaps; Miami's Achane is out and Gordon is a committee lead at 54.6%.
    • Coin toss, opening-kick winner, and scripted first-drive tendencies are unobserved.
  33. Greg Dulcich over 29.5 receiving yards
    +92%Won

    Taken at −109 on DraftKings

    Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • L5: over in 3/5; L10: over in 8/10; 2026 season: over in 3/5.
    • Recent receiving-yard averages are 42.4 (L5) and 43.4 (L10), versus a 29.5 line.
    • Dulcich is the confirmed TE1 with 67.2% snap share and 137 route snaps; the role is supported.
    • Miami passed on only 35.9% of plays in its latest game, and New England’s defense has negative recent EPA allowed/play.
  34. Rhamondre Stevenson under 59.5 rushing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • L5: under in 4/5; L10: under in 7/10; 2026 season: under in 6/7.
    • His recent rushing average is 38.2 yards (L5) and 44.9 (L10), well below the 59.5 line.
    • Stevenson is the confirmed RB1 at 63.6% season snap share; TreVeyon Henderson is officially out, but the starter is verified.
    • Henderson’s absence can consolidate carries; Stevenson had 18 attempts in Week 1.
  35. Malik Willis under 27.5 pass attempts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −121 on DraftKings

    Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • L5: under in 4/5; L10: under in 9/10; 2026 season: under in 5/6.
    • Recent comparable averages are 24.8 attempts (L5) and 21.3 (L10), 10%+ below 27.5.
    • Miami’s season pass rate is 49.4%; its latest game was 35.9% pass, with a +0.167 rush-rate shift.
    • Miami could trail early, forcing Willis toward his one recent over: 36 attempts in Week 4.
  36. Total points under 41.5
    1.92x52¢

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    +92% profit if it wins

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • New England's 2026 profile is stronger defensively: -0.0151 defensive EPA allowed/play versus Miami's +0.0598.
    • New England's offense is more efficient, but Miami's -0.206 offensive EPA/play and .3791 success rate support a low-output side.
    • Most likely loss: short fields or explosive plays push the game to 42-plus points despite the low baseline.
  37. Under 41.5 total points
    1.89x53¢

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    +89% profit if it wins

    Number EarnedDown 26% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model median total is approximately 40 points; estimated under probability is 54%.
    • Miami ranks poorly in recent offense: -0.2296 EPA/play, 0.3776 success rate, and 1.346 points per drive.
    • Both teams play slowly by recent pace indicators: 30.54 seconds per Patriots play and 31.78 for Miami.
    • New England's recent 45-point outburst shows scoring upside if Miami's weak defense cannot generate stops.

Win chance, start to finish

50%MIANEKickoff
Nov 1Final

Questions

Who won Patriots vs. Dolphins?

The Patriots won 24–19 on Sunday, Nov 1, 2026.

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