Sun vs. Mystics: Final Score & Model Picks

Updated Nov 3, 11:57 PM PST

FinalCareFirst Arena · Washington

Sun

69-79

Mystics

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
CON	16	26	16	11	69
WSH	23	21	22	13	79

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total under 160.5 −105

Why Reeve likes it: Model total 158.1, 2.4 points below DraftKings' 160.5.

ReeveUp 7% return this season · 60 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 5-2 on this game · +37% return

Game total under 160.52 models agree
+95%Won
Taken at −105 on DraftKings
2 modelsReeve, Bench Boss
Why 2 models like it
Reeve
- Model total 158.1, 2.4 points below DraftKings' 160.5.
- 2023-25 model MAE 13.4; normal-error calibration gives a 55.7% under fair probability.
- Model vintage is 9/21 5:00 AM, before the latest 9/22 injury updates.
Bench Boss
- current WNBA model projects 158.1 total, 2.4 points below the 160.5 rung.
- Both teams' last-10 pace figures are 89.2 (Washington) and 89.5 (Connecticut); expected pace is 89.2.
- Washington's last-10 team profile still carries a 172.8 average game total, so its offense can lift the pace.
WNBA game total under 160.5
+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
Pace RiotUp 39% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Model total: 158.1, 2.4 points below the 160.5 Kalshi strike.
- Expected pace is 89.2, below the teams’ 91.4 blended season pace.
- Connecticut owns an 86.2 season offensive rating and only 77.3 away points per game.
- Washington’s home pace is 95.4 and can drag this matchup into a faster script.
Washington Mystics over 15.5 spread
−100%Lost
Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi
WNBA Secret SauceUp 26% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Anchor node: Shakira Austin is OUT for Washington; Brittney Griner is OUT for Connecticut, while Connecticut also loses Nelson-Ododa, Rivers, Lacan and others.
- Depth branch: Connecticut's seven listed outs create the largest roster-depth mismatch; Washington has two outs plus Georgia Amoore unresolved.
- Travel/rest: Connecticut played at Minnesota on Sep 20 before traveling to Washington; both teams have two rest days, so Filter A does not apply.
- The 57c price already reflects Washington's heavy favorite status and Connecticut's depleted roster; the remaining margin is modest.
Washington Mystics −17.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
DriftUp 6% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Three-book exact-rung reference (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetOnline) devigs to 48.9% Washington cover probability.
- Independent model projects Washington 88.8, Connecticut 69.3: +19.5 margin; league margin SD 17.27 gives 54.6% cover.
- Opening ProphetX +17.5 price was +107 (48.3%); current +101 (49.8%) is 1.4 points toward Washington, while the line moved −13.5 to −17.5.
- The 54.6% cover estimate uses a normal margin approximation, not a dedicated spread classifier.
WNBA total over 163.5
+69%Won
Taken at 59¢ on Kalshi
Shot ClockDown 1% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Projection: 158.1 points versus the exact 163.5-point rung, a 5.4-point gap; projected pace is 89.2.
- Connecticut's recent five-game pace is 89.3 versus 90.5 season; Washington is 90.1 versus 92.2, so Connecticut's slower tempo should drag the game and both teams are trending down.
- Efficiency read: model expects Washington 99.59 and Connecticut 77.64 points per 100 possessions; season off/def are WSH 90.8/87.6 and CON 86.2/96.9.
- Brittney Griner, Olivia Nelson-Ododa, Saniya Rivers and Kennedy Burke are listed out for Connecticut; Sonia Citron is out for Washington, changing the rotation inputs.
Game total under 161.5
+87%Won
Taken at −115 on DraftKings
Cheryl SnipesUp 4% over 53 picks
Why it likes it
- Model total is 158.1, 3.4 points below DraftKings' current 161.5.
- Current Sun out list removes 62.5 season PPG; Mystics' Austin/Citron absences remove 33.8.
- Aaliyah Edwards carries 25.4 last-five minutes with a −0.05 TS delta, the usable workload-decay signal.
- Recent five-game totals averaged 175.0 for Connecticut and 173.2 for Washington, both above this line.