Updated
FinalGainbridge Fieldhouse · Indianapolis
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 16 | 18 | 30 | 13 | 77 |
| IND | 31 | 26 | 14 | 25 | 96 |
Top model pick, graded
WonIndiana Fever over 93.5 team points 53¢
Why WNBA Secret Sauce likes it: Path: Boston IN + Collier IN → Lynx Tier 1, Fever Tier 2 → Minnesota depth branch fires → 2 days rest, no B2B → Filter G.
WNBA Secret SauceUp 1% return this season · 307 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-3 on this game · −26% return
- Minnesota Lynx to win−100%Lost
Taken at +130 on DraftKings
ReeveUp 45% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Sharp market has Indiana −160, but the model's direct win-probability gap is materially wider than that price.
- Both teams are on two days' rest; no travel-rest penalty is triggered for this game.
- Caitlin Clark is listed probable, not confirmed, and a late scratch would change the matchup in either direction.
- Minnesota Lynx–Indiana Fever game total over 185.5−100%Lost
Taken at −108 on DraftKings
Pace RiotUp 39% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- 198.4 model total versus an 185.5 market number.
- 91.84 expected pace; both teams sit above 91 possessions per 40 this season.
- Season scoring baseline is 188.0 combined points: Fever 96.7, Lynx 91.3.
- Minnesota’s last five games averaged only 172.4 total points.
- Indiana Fever over 93.5 team points+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi
WNBA Secret SauceUp 26% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Path: Boston IN + Collier IN → Lynx Tier 1, Fever Tier 2 → Minnesota depth branch fires → 2 days rest, no B2B → Filter G.
- Minnesota has six current outs, including primary creator Olivia Miles (19.8 PPG, 6.0 APG) and three frontcourt rotation pieces.
- Filter G routes away from Minnesota spread/ML and toward the opponent team-total OVER; Indiana averages 96.7 PPG and 99.1 over its last 10.
- Caitlin Clark remains officially day-to-day/probable, not confirmed; a late scratch materially weakens Indiana's offense.
- WNBA game total under 187.5+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi
Shot ClockDown 1% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection: expected total 184.4 versus the exact Kalshi 187.5-point rung.
- Indiana dictates the modestly faster tempo: 92.89 pace L5 and 92.32 pace EWMA versus Minnesota's 91.28 and 90.26.
- Form efficiency read: Indiana offense 110.2 versus Minnesota defense 92.5; Minnesota offense 99.9 versus Indiana defense 97.7, yielding roughly 184 points at the pace read.
- Caitlin Clark is Probable/Day-to-Day and Olivia Miles is Questionable; unresolved rotation status caps this at LEAN.
- Aliyah Boston under 15.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at −115 on FanDuel
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 10% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- 13.0 points over her last five is 16.1% below the 15.5 line.
- Minnesota owns the WNBA's fourth-best defense at 92.6 points allowed per 100 possessions.
- Official Fever preview lists Boston as a probable starter, and FanDuel posts the under at −115.
- Her 16.4 season scoring average is 5.8% above this line.
Questions
Who won Lynx vs. Fever?
The Fever won 96-77 on Tuesday, Sep 22, 2026.