Updated
FinalWintrust Arena · Chicago
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 20 | 24 | 11 | 30 | 85 |
| CHI | 18 | 26 | 28 | 25 | 97 |
Top model pick, graded
WonChicago Sky over 4.5-point margin 55¢
Why WNBA Secret Sauce likes it: Path: Chicago anchor Stevens OUT and Toronto’s frontcourt depleted → both Tier 4 → depth branch favors the rested home side → Filter D short-rest favorite ban does not fire.
WNBA Secret SauceUp 1% return this season · 307 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-3 on this game · −29% return
- Game total under 180.5−100%Lost
Taken at −108 on DraftKings
ReeveUp 45% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Top factor: recent 20 team-games average 174.0 total points; 13 of 20 finished below 180.5.
- Chicago and Toronto average 80.5 and 79.9 points over their last 10, well below season marks of 86.4 and 85.8.
- Recent average pace is 92.35 for Chicago and 91.32 for Toronto; both teams carry extensive current injury absences.
- Official model total of 180.1 is nearly identical to the market, so the edge depends on weighting recent form more heavily.
- Toronto Tempo under 180.5 game total−100%Lost
Taken at −106 on FanDuel
Pace RiotUp 39% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- 180.5 sits 6.5 points above Chicago's 10-game average total of 173.0.
- 180.5 sits 5.8 points above Toronto's 10-game average total of 174.7.
- Current 10-game scoring is only 80.5 Chicago points and 79.9 Toronto points per game.
- Chicago and Toronto's current defensive ratings are leaky at 99.9 and 104.9.
- Chicago Sky over 4.5-point margin+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi
WNBA Secret SauceUp 26% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Path: Chicago anchor Stevens OUT and Toronto’s frontcourt depleted → both Tier 4 → depth branch favors the rested home side → Filter D short-rest favorite ban does not fire.
- Kalshi prices Chicago by more than 4.5 at 55¢, while sportsbook boards are laying Chicago −5.5; the Kalshi contract gives a one-point cushion.
- Chicago has three rest days at home; Toronto arrives after playing at New York on Sep. 20 with two rest days.
- Chicago has six players out plus Coulibaly questionable, including high-usage scorers Rickea Jackson, Natasha Cloud, and Skylar Diggins.
- Game total over 178.5 points+75%Won
Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi
WNBA Secret SauceUp 26% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Path: Chicago interior anchor Azura Stevens OUT and Toronto frontcourt anchors Aneesah Morrow/Nyara Sabally OUT → Tier 4 matchup → both benches thin → Filter B/E over route.
- Model projects 180.1 total points, 1.6 above the Kalshi 178.5 threshold.
- The four latest completed team games produced totals of 175, 187, 188, and 190; three cleared 178.5.
- Toronto scored only 69 and 85 in its last two games; Chicago scored 81 and 80 in its last two.
- WNBA total under 181.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Shot ClockDown 1% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Chicago's recent pace is 91.06 versus a 93.43 season pace; Toronto is 90.96 versus 91.74, so the slower recent profile should dictate tempo.
- Form efficiency is weak on both sides: Chicago 87.3 offense against Toronto's 104.9 defense, Toronto 86.7 offense against Chicago's 99.9 defense.
- A conservative pace-times-efficiency blend projects about 176.0 points versus the exact 181.5 Kalshi rung.
- Chicago or Toronto can recover from their poor recent offensive form, especially against Toronto's 104.9 defensive rating.
Questions
Who won Tempo vs. Sky?
The Sky won 97-85 on Tuesday, Sep 22, 2026.