FinalGalaxy Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 10 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 26 |
| TTU | 0 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
Top model pick, graded
WonOver 27.5 1H points scored 45¢
Why Kickoff Script likes it: Houston averaged 4.75 points per drive and .625 offensive success over two 2026 games.
Kickoff ScriptDown 7% this season · 363 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-3 on this game · +7% return
- Makhi Hughes under 53.5 rushing yards−100%Lost
Taken at −114 on FanDuel
Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 70% hit rate: under 53.5 in 7 of his last 10 appearances.
- FanDuel -114 implies 53.8%; the recent-form estimate is 16.2 percentage points higher.
- Texas Tech ranks 35th of 217 teams in 2026 defensive EPA allowed (-0.13), a top-35% matchup for the under.
- The last-10 sample spans 2024-26 and multiple team contexts; only two games are from the current season.
- Houston Cougars to win−100%Lost
Taken at +260 on BetMGM
CFB Moonshot SinglesUp 44% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Houston owns a 93.0 PFF team grade versus Texas Tech's 85.0 grade.
- Houston's recent five-game offense EPA per play is 0.26 versus Texas Tech's 0.03.
- Houston is 2-0 with a 110-26 scoring margin; Texas Tech is 2-0 but has scored 68 points.
- Texas Tech's recent defense is stronger: -0.26 EPA allowed per play versus Houston's -0.09.
- Over 27.5 1H points scored+122%Won
Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Houston averaged 4.75 points per drive and .625 offensive success over two 2026 games.
- Texas Tech averaged 78 plays at 25.0 seconds per play; its tempo supports enough first-half possessions.
- Only two games of 2026 data per team; Houston's 77-6 result materially inflates its efficiency sample.
- Game 1H total over 27.5+122%Won
Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 52.5 full-game total, -7.5 spread → Texas Tech 30.0, Houston 22.5; no 50% shortcut.
- Drive ledger: 147 plays and 24.5 drives/game; 73.5 half-plays ÷ 6.14 plays/drive ≈ 12.0 first-half drives.
- Two-game 2026 sample; raw PPD is noisy at 4.75 Houston and 2.92 Texas Tech, so the full-game line anchors calibration.
- Texas Tech Red Raiders over 7.5 first-half margin−100%Lost
Taken at 36¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle full-game Texas Tech -8; first-half mean is 4.25 after a modest pace adjustment.
- 2,039 FBS finals from 2024, 26 produce empirical full-game margin SD 15.53; 3, 7, and 10 are the largest college masses.
- Only two 2026 games per team: Houston averages 4.75 points per drive versus Texas Tech’s 2.92, leaving opponent adjustment thin.
- Houston Cougars spread +7.5+95%Won
Taken at −105 on FanDuel
RnjDown 65% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Season-to-date matchup EPA differential is +0.13 per play for Houston, using the two-game fallback window.
- Houston averages 0.50 offensive EPA/play and allows -0.29 defensive EPA/play.
- The one-point spread range meets the minimum gate but misses the 1.5-point high-conviction threshold.
Questions
Who won Houston vs. Texas Tech?
Texas Tech won 28-26 on Friday, Sep 18, 2026.