FinalAllegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 7 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 33 |
| WAKE | 7 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 20 |
Top model pick, graded
WonWake Forest Demon Deacons +20.5 52¢
Why CFB Heater likes it: SDTrading is 17-0 in its tracked CFB sample; 0xd4cfe5 is 26-0; 0x840b03 is 19-2.
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 6-7 on this game · −18% return
- Miami Hurricanes spread −20.5−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsKey Number CFB, RnjWhy 2 models like it
Key Number CFB- Miami's 2026 efficiency: +0.78 offensive EPA/play and -0.18 defensive EPA/play; Wake: +0.34 and +0.14.
- Most likely loss: Wake sustains enough drives to keep Miami at 20 points or fewer.
Rnj- Season-to-date matchup EPA differential is +0.14 per play for Miami, using the two-game fallback window.
- Miami's offense averages 0.79 EPA/play; Wake Forest allows 0.14 EPA/play. Its defense allows -0.17.
- The one-point spread range meets the minimum gate but misses the 1.5-point high-conviction threshold.
- Miami Hurricanes spread −20−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Saturday Board Pairs- 2026 sample (2 games): Miami is +0.78 EPA/play and 63.0% success; Wake is +0.34 and 52.1%.
- Miami's defensive EPA/play allowed is -0.18 versus Wake's +0.14; the matchup favors sustained Miami separation.
- Most likely loss: Wake's Gio Lopez sustains enough efficient drives for a backdoor cover inside 20.
Long Way Home- Miami's 2026 team-game profile leads Wake 0.79 to 0.34 in offensive EPA/play and 63.0% to 52.1% in success rate.
- Miami also leads explosive-play rate 22.6% to 14.9% and points per drive 4.61 to 3.74 across two games.
- Only two games of data; Miami's 70-point Florida A&M result can materially inflate its efficiency profile.
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons +20.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- SDTrading is 17-0 in its tracked CFB sample; 0xd4cfe5 is 26-0; 0x840b03 is 19-2.
- Miami has materially stronger recent EPA form; a favorite covering 20.5 makes this a wide-tail outcome.
- Miami Hurricanes win 1H by over 6.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at 31¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle Miami -20.0 full-game, scaled to a +10.0 first-half mean.
- 2024-25 regular FBS signed-margin SD was 22.28 across 1,761 games; half SD is 15.75.
- 17,225 contracts traded and the 1¢ YES width clears the 4¢ recommended gate.
- Only two 2026 games per team: EPA, explosive-rate, pace, and points-per-drive samples are thin.
- Gio Lopez anytime touchdown−100%Lost
Taken at +250 on BetMGM
CFB Moonshot SinglesUp 44% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 20 rushing attempts and 98 yards through two games, including two rushing touchdowns.
- Gio Lopez is the verified probable Wake Forest quarterback; the prop board prices him for this matchup.
- Wake averages 3.40 points per drive over the recent five-game window.
- Miami has allowed only 13 points across its first two games and owns superior recent defensive EPA.
- Miami Hurricanes 1st-half winner+22%Won
Taken at 82¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Two-game 2026 averages: Miami posted 0.78 offensive EPA/play and 63.0% success versus Wake's 0.34 and 52.1%.
- Script matchup favors Miami: Miami offense 0.78 EPA/play against Wake's +0.14 defensive EPA allowed; Wake offense faces Miami's -0.18 allowed rate.
- Miami's explosive rate is .226 versus Wake's .149, while Miami's PROE averages .092 versus .075 for Wake.
- Coverage is thin: only two 2026 games per team, with no opponent-quality adjustment.
Show all 11 picks
- 1H total over 28.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Conservative script projection is 30, 32 first-half points after down-weighting the two-game mismatch sample.
- Miami averaged 73 offensive plays with 27.86, 28.86 seconds per play; Wake averaged 66.5 plays at 25.49, 28.62.
- Miami’s recent offensive success rate was 57.5% and 68.5%; Wake’s was 49.3% and 54.8%.
- Only two 2026 games per team; Miami’s 77-point FAMU game and Wake’s 38, 36 Purdue game inflate early efficiency.
- Miami Hurricanes −20.5−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days - Mark Fletcher Jr. over 78.5 rushing yards+88%Won
Taken at −114 on FanDuel
Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model estimate 62%; FanDuel -114 implies 53.3%, an 8.7-point value margin.
- Fletcher cleared 78.5 rushing yards in 7 of his last 10 appearances.
- FanDuel offers the best verified price found for this prop at -114.
- Wake Forest allowed only 137.5 rushing yards per game in 2026, below the 178.1 top-35 favorable-over cutoff.
- 1H total over 27.5+75%Won
Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Miami averaged 73 plays at 28.36 seconds/play; Wake averaged 66.5 at 27.05, blending to 27.71 seconds/play.
- Miami first-half PPD was 5.40 (28/6 and 49/8); Wake was 5.17 (28/6 and 17/3), above baselines of 4.61 and 3.74.
- Only two 2026 games per team; prior opponents were weaker than this ACC matchup, so uplift may be overstated.
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons spread +20.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX’s current Wake +20.5 quote is 51.92¢ (-108); Wake +20 last showed 50.50¢ (-102).
- The remaining 0.28-point gap is small and may reflect unmodeled market information.
Questions
Who won Miami vs. Wake Forest?
Miami won 33-20 on Friday, Sep 18, 2026.