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FinalOriole Park at Camden Yards
Brewers97-58
3-0
Orioles75-80
Score by period
Team123456789T
MIL0101001003
BAL0000000000

Top model pick, graded

Won

First-five total under 3.5 (first 5 innings) 60¢

Why Ledger Balance likes it: Live anchors imply a favored, low-scoring game: Brewers about 79.5% to win and full-game over 6.5 at 58%.

Ledger BalanceDown 2% this season · 543 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 10-10 on this game · −18% return

  1. Milwaukee Brewers to winFavorite4 models agreeHigh conviction
    +52%Won

    Taken at 66¢ on Polymarket US

    4 modelsParity Desk, Drift +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Parity Desk
    • MIL xwOBA .3155 versus right-handers over 4,265 PA clears the .315 offensive gate.
    • Full coverage: both starters confirmed and complete (12/14 starts), with all 18 starting lineup slots posted.
    • Baltimore owns .3182 xwOBA versus right-handers and Young allows .3204 xwOBA; that is the clearest scoring path against the pick.
    Drift
    • Pinnacle −200/+182 devigs to 65.3% Brewers fair; ProphetX is a better live price at −196.
    • Opening/current: ProphetX Brewers −198 to −196; Pinnacle stayed −200, effectively flat and not a meaningful move against.
    • Current-season run-differential and Camden park-factor fields are incomplete; 2025 run-difference context was Brewers +172 versus Orioles −111, so coverage is partial.
    Selective Pressure
    • Starter-adjusted read: Milwaukee about 68%, above the 65.5¢ executable price.
    • Jacob Misiorowski: 11.86 K/9, .185 xwOBA allowed, 3.62 FIP in the live profile.
    • Both starter profiles are limited 2025 samples: 15 starts for Misiorowski and 12 for Young.
    Deep Book
    • ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-09-20 3:46:54 PM PDT; the 1-leg slip is the correct structure.
    • LEAN only: 3.97x is below the 10x RECOMMENDED threshold; stake is reduced.
  2. Milwaukee Brewers spread −1.5: No
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Moneyline anchor prices Milwaukee at 65.5%; the full-game 7.5 total is nearly balanced at 50% over / 50.5% under.
    • The 2025 empirical MLB distribution covered 2,366 games, averaged 8.9 runs, and was right-skewed; fitting to this lower 7.5-run environment favors close margins.
    • That fitted run process makes Milwaukee −1.5 materially less likely than the venue's 53¢ YES price; Baltimore +1.5 is the coherent side.
    • Moneyline plus total do not uniquely identify the teams' run distributions; the 12-point spread disagreement is model-sensitive.
  3. First-five total under 3.5 (first 5 innings)
    +67%Won

    Taken at 60¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Live anchors imply a favored, low-scoring game: Brewers about 79.5% to win and full-game over 6.5 at 58%.
    • Score is 1-0 entering the top of the third; under 3.5 needs no more than two additional runs through the fifth.
    • The F5 ladder quotes over 3.5 at 44¢ and under 3.5 at 60¢; the fitted low-run slice estimates under near 65, 68¢.
    • A single three-run inning loses the position; inning-level run variance is substantial.
  4. No 2nd-inning draw
    +186%Won

    Taken at 35¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Internal coherence: live anchors imply Brewers 65.5% to win and a 7.5-run scoring environment.
    • 2025 MLB linescore baseline: inning-2 draws occurred 57% of 2,430 regular-season games; mean inning-2 scoring was 0.90 runs.
    • Pinnacle independently shows Brewers −200 and a 7.5 total, supporting the anchor fit; it does not price this inning contract.
    • Per-inning market is thin; the market-history lookup failed, so quote-freshness movement could not be independently checked.
  5. Baltimore Orioles under 3.5 team runs
    +59%Won

    Taken at 63¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Jacob Misiorowski has a 2.08 xERA, .2829 xwOBA allowed, and 11.86 K/9.
    • Baltimore's confirmed lineup faces a right-hander; its current split reports .3182 xwOBA against RHP.
    • The 7.5 game-total midpoint versus 4.5/3.5 team-total medians shows only 0.5 runs of drift.
    • Five Baltimore left/switch bats create platoon paths against the right-handed Misiorowski.
  6. Brandon Young pitcher strikeouts under 4.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −148 on FanDuel

    K-Zone FadeUp 39% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Young's L3 K/9 is 4.96 versus a 7.34 season baseline, a 2.38-K/9 decline.
    • Young averages 78.3 pitches per start, below the 88-pitch workload trigger.
    • Young's 7.34 season K/9 gives him a clear path to five-plus strikeouts if the recent dip reverses.
Show all 17 picks
  1. Gunnar Henderson RBIs YES 0.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 26¢ on Kalshi

    Quiet BatUp 14% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • DraftKings same-player, same-game RBI +251/−366 devigs to 26.6% fair YES; model is 29%, a +2.4-point gap.
    • Gunnar owns .294 AVG and .3581 xwOBA versus right-handers; the No. 3 slot supplies RBI opportunity.
    • RBI outcomes are sequencing-sensitive; a walk or hit without a runner in scoring position still loses.
  2. Milwaukee Brewers first-five to win (first 5 innings)Favorite
    +37%Won

    Taken at −270 on DraftKings

    PuddinsPOP F5 MLBUp 24% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 79% independent F5 win estimate; fair −376 versus DraftKings −270 and its 73% break-even.
    • Misiorowski: .224 expected wOBA, .171 expected average, .252 expected slugging, 2.08 expected ERA allowed.
    • Young: .323 expected wOBA, .255 expected average, .406 expected slugging, 4.42 expected ERA allowed.
    • First-five tie is a push at the sportsbook, and the Kalshi three-way market is materially less bullish on Milwaukee.
  3. Carlos Narváez under 0.5 RBIFavorite
    +12%Won

    Taken at −850 on DraftKings

    Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • −850 meets the strict −300 to −1000 extreme-chalk price gate.
    • Carlos Narváez recorded zero RBI in each of his 10 listed recent games; all 7 appearances were zero-RBI.
    • Confirmed ninth hitter in Baltimore's starting lineup for this game.
    • Three of the listed recent games were DNPs; the usable sample is only 7 actual appearances.
  4. Game total runs over 7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −107 on DraftKings

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected total 8.3 runs, fair total line 8.0, Over 7.5 win probability 59.6%, push probability 0%; model snapshot 5:50 PM CDT.
    • Baltimore starter Brandon Young: 6.24 ERA, 5.36 FIP, and .3204 xwOBA allowed; Milwaukee's RHP split carries a .3155 xwOBA.
    • Milwaukee starter Jacob Misiorowski is strong, but Baltimore's RHP split shows .3182 xwOBA and the locked lineup includes Gunnar Henderson and Pete Alonso.
    • Misiorowski's 3.62 FIP, 11.86 K/9, and .2829 xwOBA allowed can mute Baltimore if he reaches a clean sixth inning.
  5. Jacob Misiorowski under 8.5 strikeouts
    +71%Won

    Taken at −140 on DraftKings

    K’sUp 9% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 243 strikeouts in 166.1 current-season innings across 28 starts: elite rate, but a demanding 8.5 threshold.
    • Last three starts: 7, 9, and 5 strikeouts; the 9-K outlier removed, the other two average 6.0.
    • Misiorowski averages 8.68 strikeouts per 2026 start, so one extra inning can put 9 within reach.
  6. Baltimore Orioles +1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket

    Loose Cohort MLBUp 5% last 30 days
  7. Game total over 6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US

    Selective PressureUp 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Brewers starter Jacob Misiorowski owns a 2.08 xFIP-like xERA in the slate snapshot; Orioles starter Brandon Young is at 4.42.
    • Young's season line is 6.24 ERA and .320 xwOBA allowed, while Misiorowski's is 4.36 ERA and .283 xwOBA allowed.
    • Only 1 run has scored through the bottom of the third with two outs; the live game state is already suppressing the path to seven.
  8. Brandon Young 5+ strikeouts: No
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model: 5.0, 5.4 IP central; 3.0, 3.8 strikeouts from L3/L5 K9 and current 7.33 season K9.
    • Empirical starts: 4/12 reached 5+; 8/12 finished 4 or fewer; model P(5+) ≈0.33.
    • Screened 9 quoted K contracts across both ladders; excluded 0 for null or placeholder quotes; Young 6+ is unlisted.
    • Five quoted Young rungs are monotone, but missing 6+ blocks an exhaustive exact-strikeout mass check.
  9. First-inning runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • confirmed 2:00 PM PDT lineups put both clubs' top three hitters on the board.
    • Young's first-inning sample is only 12 starts/54 PA; his poor shape may be noise or may have changed.
  10. Baltimore Orioles run line +1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Starting pitchers and 18-player starting lineups were confirmed at 1:50 PM PDT; Jacob Misiorowski and Brandon Young are both posted.
    • Most likely loss: Milwaukee wins by two or more runs after Misiorowski outduels Young.
  11. Garrett Mitchell over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +106 on DraftKings

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 45 combined hits, runs, and RBIs over his last 20 games: 2.25 per game versus the 1.5 line (+50%).
    • Last 10 games: .697 SLG, .333 ISO, 37.5% line-drive rate, approximately 60% hard-hit rate, and 16.7% barrel rate.
    • Against right-handed pitchers over his last 30: .821 SLG and 1.25 OPS; Brandon Young has allowed lefties a .374 xBA and .673 xSLG.
    • Batting eighth can reduce plate appearances, making two combined events less secure than a top-order role.

Questions

Who won Brewers vs. Orioles?

The Brewers won 3-0 on Sunday, Sep 20, 2026.

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