App StoreGoogle Play

Updated

FinalYankee Stadium
Rays96-62
4-6
Yankees91-67
Score by period
Team123456789T
TB0020110004
NYY00000132-6

Top model pick, graded

Won

New York Yankees to win −146

Why Ricky MLB Moneyline Quant likes it: 20,000-trial PA simulation model: 64.2% true win probability; raw fair −179; p_conservative 62.6% (fair −167); medium confidence; locked 5:35 PM CDT.

Ricky MLB Moneyline QuantDown 6% this season · 237 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 13-17 on this game · −14% return

  1. New York Yankees to win5 models agree
    +68%Won

    Taken at −146 on FanDuel

    5 modelsRicky MLB Moneyline Quant, Pen Check +3
    Why 5 models like it
    Ricky MLB Moneyline Quant
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: 64.2% true win probability; raw fair −179; p_conservative 62.6% (fair −167); medium confidence; locked 5:35 PM CDT.
    • Cam Schlittler: 1.94 ERA, 2.85 xERA, 11.05 K/9 and 0.91 WHIP; Ian Seymour: 4.38 ERA, 3.65 xERA and 1.17 WHIP.
    • Tampa Bay's posted lineup averages about 110 wRC+ versus roughly 100 for New York, narrowing the starting-pitcher advantage.
    Pen Check
    • Model fair probability 62.5% (fair price about −167) versus 57% Pinnacle devigged market.
    • Cam Schlittler: 2.85 xERA, 31.3% strikeout rate, .262 xwOBA allowed; last-three ERA 0.95.
    • The offensive split is essentially neutral: Yankees .3154 xwOBA versus LHP, Rays .3146 versus RHP.
    Drift
    • Power rating: Yankees 60.5%, versus Pinnacle devigged fair market 57%; gap 3.5 percentage points.
    • 2026 run differential favors New York 141 to 79; Schlittler leads Seymour in ERA 1.94 to 4.38 and xwOBA allowed .262 to .295.
    • The Rays own the better 2026 record, 96-62 versus New York's 91-67, so the run-differential model may overrate the Yankees.
    Selective Pressure
    • Own read: Yankees win probability ~62%, above the 58.5¢ executable price.
    • Confirmed starters: Cam Schlittler 1.94 ERA/0.91 WHIP versus Ian Seymour 4.38 ERA/1.17 WHIP.
    • A single MLB game remains high variance, and Seymour's 10.96 K/9 can produce a sharper outing than his ERA implies.
  2. Game total over 6.5 runs2 models agree
    +110%Won

    Taken at +110 on FanDuel

    2 modelsAlex's Sharp Line Scanner, Ricky Pregame MLB Totals
    Why 2 models like it
    Alex's Sharp Line Scanner
    • The 6.5 line provides a half-run cushion over Pinnacle's current 6, while both bullpens carry heavy three-day workloads: TB 140 pitches, NYY 113.
    • Live checks confirm both probable starters and all 18 listed batting-order starters; no starter is on the IL.
    • Pinnacle is pricing 6 while FanDuel is offering 6.5, so the sharp-line comparison has meaningful half-run conversion uncertainty.
    Ricky Pregame MLB Totals
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: 7.1 projected total runs, fair total line 7.0, Over 6.5 win probability 55.2%, push probability 0%; inputs locked 5:30 PM CDT and released 5:35 PM CDT.
    • Confirmed 1, 9 lineups posted for both teams; Yankees bring a .3154 xwOBA split versus left-handed pitching, while Tampa Bay has .3146 versus right-handed pitching.
    • Cam Schlittler's 2.85 xERA, .262 xwOBA allowed, 11.05 K/9 and 97-mph fastball can suppress Tampa Bay's scoring.
  3. Cam Schlittler over 5.5 strikeouts2 models agreeHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsMLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL, Señor Strikeouts
    Why 2 models like it
    MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL
    • Poisson-binomial projection: 6.7 Ks and 70% probability of 6+; 1.2 Ks above the line.
    • Schlittler owns a 31.3% 2026 K/BF rate, 11.30 L5 K/9, and 8.2 Ks across his last five starts.
    • The 70% projection is only the medium-confidence band; one or two extra contact-heavy plate appearances flips the result.
    Señor Strikeouts
    • Schlittler's recent K/9 is 11.37 over his last 3 starts and 11.30 over his last 5.
    • He recorded 6 strikeouts in 6 innings in his September 19 start and is on five days' rest.
    • The 5.5 line requires at least 6 strikeouts; an early pitch-count or efficiency issue can leave the over short.
  4. Cam Schlittler over 6.5 strikeouts2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +114 on FanDuel

    2 modelsK’s, Picks with pink pro reader
    Why 2 models like it
    K’s
    • Model estimate is roughly 58, 61% for 7+ Ks versus +114's 46.7% break-even.
    • Schlittler's last five starts produced 41 Ks in 120 BF (34.2%); season rate is 31.3%.
    • Tampa Bay's 17.8% K rate versus right-handed pitching is a materially adverse matchup signal.
    Picks with pink pro reader
    • Model: 63% estimated probability versus FanDuel +114 implied 46.7%.
    • Schlittler cleared 6.5 Ks in 7 of his last 10 starts.
    • The line requires seven strikeouts; six Ks loses despite a strong outing.
  5. Tampa Bay Rays run line +12 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsHouse Rules, Deep Book
    Why 2 models like it
    House Rules
    • Rays +1 is 53.05¢ versus Rays +1.5 at 62.96¢, a 9.91-point gap.
    • Rays +1 loses if New York wins by two or more; only a one-run Yankees win pushes.
    Deep Book
    • Pinnacle favors the Rays on the adjacent +1.5 rung (−185); the line differs, but direction agrees.
    • Board pull as_of_pt 2026-09-24T15:31:18-07:00; this is a half-size LEAN, not a recommended play.
    • The 3.13x run-line ratio barely clears the LEAN band.
  6. New York Yankees F5 winner (first 5 innings)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model fair: Yankees 52%, Rays 32%, draw 16%; draw remains a separate F5 outcome.
    • Cam Schlittler's ported xWBOA-against is .262 versus Ian Seymour's .295.
    • Yankees vs LHP team xWBOA is .3341; Rays vs RHP team xWBOA is .3139.
    • F5 draw probability is modeled at 16%; a tie after five is a separate losing outcome.
Show all 22 picks
  1. Tampa Bay Rays first-five spread +1.5 (first 5 innings)Favorite
    +47%Won

    Taken at 68¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • NYY moneyline anchor implies 58.5% home win; the 5.5 full-game total and F5 2.5/3.5 ladder imply a low-scoring game.
    • F5 winner board: Yankees 48%, draw 21%, Rays 33%; Rays +1.5 loses only when New York wins the F5 by 2+.
    • A single early multi-run inning can turn the F5 margin into a two-run loss.
  2. No 9th-inning draw
    +213%Won

    Taken at 32¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Liquid anchors imply a Yankees win probability near 57, 58% and a low 5.5-run environment, so an inning draw remains the modal single outcome but not 75%.
    • Using the 2026 final-score shape (8.95 average runs, 4.52 SD) and the live low-total anchor gives roughly 0.6, 0.7 runs per inning; flat-rate draw probability is about 55, 60%, implying no-draw near 40, 45%.
    • Both bullpens have meaningful recent workload: Yankees 6.67 IP/113 pitches and Rays 8.67 IP/140 pitches over three days, supporting more late-inning scoring than a 75% draw price suggests.
    • The game is live at 0, 0 in the top of the 2nd, so the observed scoreless start may make a ninth-inning draw more likely than the flat-rate baseline.
  3. New York Yankees over 2.5 runs scored
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • The one-run venue mismatch meets my explicit coherence-fire threshold; this is the tight, actionable Yankees rung.
    • The game is live at 0-0 through two innings, top of the third underway; the remaining scoring window is shorter.
  4. Ian Seymour over 4.5 strikeoutsFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −376 on DraftKings

    Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 9 of Seymour's last 10 starts cleared 4.5 strikeouts (90%).
    • He has 10.96 K/9 this season and 12.43 K/9 over his last five starts.
    • Seymour is listed as the Rays' starter and the live DraftKings alternate line is −376.
    • The Yankees split is favorable but below the brief's 15% strong-advantage benchmark.
  5. Full-game total over 6.5 runs
    +110%Won

    Taken at +110 on FanDuel

    Shawn’s Park & Weather Totals EngineUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Yankee Stadium carries a 1.02 run factor and 1.21 HR factor; the park boost offsets some of the cool air.
    • Wind is 13 mph in from left at 64°F: it removes the brief's wind-out multiplier but does not erase the strong HR environment.
    • Starters clear the workload gate: last-four pitch averages are 96.8 (Schlittler) and 82.3 (Seymour), with 32 and 15 prior starts.
    • Cam Schlittler owns a 2.85 xERA, 1.94 ERA and 11.05 K/9; six-plus dominant innings can strand the over.
  6. Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees first-five innings total over 3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 39¢ on Polymarket US

    Loose Cohort MLBUp 5% last 30 days
  7. Game over 0.5 first-inning runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +138 on FanDuel

    Brewing MLB NRFI/YRFI Stat BasedUp 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed top-four orders are Yandy Díaz, Liam Hicks, Junior Caminero, Victor Mesa Jr. and Paul Goldschmidt, Cody Bellinger, Heliot Ramos, Ben Rice.
    • Team first-inning scoreless rates imply a 51.4% baseline YRFI rate before starter adjustment: Yankees 71.6% scoreless, Rays 67.5%.
    • Top-order platoon quality is sound: Yankees vs L xwOBA .3154 and Rays vs R .3146; Goldschmidt (.379) and Ramos (.396) lead the favorable matchup indicators.
    • Cam Schlittler is excellent early: .175 first-inning BA allowed and .262 season xwOBA allowed.
  8. Game total under 6
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • under 6 is 50.98¢ versus under 6.5 at 55.75¢, a 4.77-point gap.
    • Under 6 wins only at five runs or fewer, pushes at six, and loses at seven or more.
  9. Cam Schlittler over 15.5 outs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +132 on FanDuel

    +EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Blended fair estimate 64% versus 43.1% FanDuel break-even: +20.9 percentage points.
    • Schlittler cleared 15.5 outs in 7 of his last 10 starts and 10 of 15 this season.
    • He averages 92.8 pitches per start; his last five starts averaged 97.8 pitches.
    • Tampa Bay's contact profile can create traffic and elevated pitch counts despite the low strikeout rate.
  10. Ian Seymour 7+ pitching strikeouts
    +64%Won

    Taken at 61¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Seymour's current formal starting sample is 5 starts: 26.0 IP and 32 K, but the innings profile remains only 4.8 IP/start.
    • Confirmed Yankees lineup versus left-handers: 1,216 PA and 276 K (22.7%); this is below Seymour's 2026 overall 26.4% K rate.
    • Innings-times-rate estimate centers near 5.0 K and puts Seymour below 7 K at roughly 0.65, 0.70.
    • Only 5 formal 2026 starts; the broader 57.0 IP sample includes relief work, so the innings distribution is uncertain.
  11. New York Yankees first-five to win (first 5 innings)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −164 on FanDuel

    The Core 6 Independent SyndicateDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Independent cash probability: 64.5%; FanDuel price is −164.
    • Cam Schlittler owns a 2.85 xERA and .262 xwOBA allowed versus Ian Seymour's 3.65 and .295.
    • Seymour's ERA rose to 5.33 over his last five starts versus 4.38 for the season.
    • Yankees' split versus right-handed pitching is not dominant: .3154 xwOBA and .2456 average.
  12. New York Yankees run line −1.5
    +170%Won

    Taken at 37¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ian Seymour's L5 ERA is 5.33 versus 4.38 season-long, with late-form liability.
    • TTO decay: Seymour's K% falls from 37.1% in TTO1 to 25% in TTO3; TTO3 xwOBA rises to .2973 from .2603 in TTO2.
    • Yankees versus left-handers: .3154 xwOBA and .4211 SLG; the confirmed nine-man lineup was captured at 3:30 PM PDT.
    • Most likely loss: New York wins by exactly one after Seymour exits, cashing the moneyline but not −1.5.
  13. First-inning runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 40¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Posted top threes are strong versus hand: Yankees .379/.311/.396 xwOBA vs LHP; Rays .343/.341/.346 vs RHP.
    • Full-game total is NOT a valid reference: it covers all nine innings, not this cold, posted top-of-order first-frame question.
    • Cam Schlittler's current first-inning sample shows 35.8% K and .175 BA over 32 games; Ian Seymour shows 40.7% K and .232 BA over 15.
  14. Game total under 6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-09-24 1:36 PM PDT. Yankee Stadium wind is 13 mph in from left field.
    • The moneyline flow leans Tampa Bay at 5.5x, while the −1 run-line flow leans New York at 3.5x; cross-market flow is not uniform.
  15. New York Yankees alternate run line −5.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +900 on FanDuel

    Iron HorseDown 20% over 65 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Yankees starter Cam Schlittler: 1.94 ERA, 2.85 xERA, and 11.05 K/9.
    • Rays starter Ian Seymour carries a 4.38 ERA and 3.65 xERA into Yankee Stadium.
    • Tampa Bay's bullpen has thrown 8.67 innings and 140 pitches over the last three days.
    • A six-run margin is an extreme tail outcome; the Yankees can win without covering.
  16. Yandy Díaz under 1.5 total basesFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −210 on BetMGM

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 4 total bases across his last 10 games: 0.4 per game versus the 1.5 threshold.
    • Cam Schlittler enters at a 1.94 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and .262 xwOBA allowed.
    • Díaz is confirmed active and batting first in the pregame roster.
    • Díaz owns a .2907 season average and .4452 slugging percentage, creating regression risk.

Questions

Who won Rays vs. Yankees?

The Yankees won 6-4 on Thursday, Sep 24, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.