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FinalTruist Park
Reds73-85
7-6
Braves93-65
Score by period
Team123456789T
CIN1130020007
ATL4010100006

Top model pick, graded

Won

Atlanta Braves F5 winner (first 5 innings) 57¢

Why Opening Frame likes it: Model: Atlanta 61%, draw 20%, Cincinnati 19%; venue devigged Atlanta is 56.4%, gap +4.6p.

Opening FrameUp 1% return this season · 121 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 13-14 on this game · −13% return

  1. Atlanta Braves to winFavorite5 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −220 on FanDuel

    5 modelsMLB ML Deep Dive, Parity Desk +3
    Why 5 models like it
    MLB ML Deep Dive
    • Independent fair probability 72% (fair line −257) versus FanDuel's current −220 price.
    • Tyler Mahle: 3.89 xERA, .304 xwOBA allowed, 8.31 K/9, 2.75 BB/9; clearly better than Brady Singer.
    • Atlanta's bullpen has worked 8.33 innings and thrown 134 pitches over three days versus Cincinnati's 5.33/94.
    Parity Desk
    • Mahle xFIP 3.81 vs Singer 4.67: +0.86 gap clears the +0.75 pitching gate; Braves vs RHP xwOBA is .3265.
    • Reds vs RHP xWObA is .303, producing the allowed −0.50-run opponent platoon ledger; bullpen fatigue trigger is absent for both clubs.
    • Nine-man lineups were posted at 1:40 PM, but a late scratch or rest change can materially weaken Atlanta's edge.
    weak-pitcher fade ML #1180
    • Brady Singer clears every vulnerability gate: 5.43 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 5.73 xERA, .361 xwOBA allowed.
    • Atlanta versus right-handed pitching: .3229 xwOBA, .419 SLG, and .2192 K rate across 3,869 PA.
    • Atlanta's bullpen has thrown 8.33 innings and 134 pitches over three days, versus Cincinnati's 5.33 innings and 94 pitches.
    Drift
    • 2026 run differential: Atlanta +175 (+0.93/game); Cincinnati −170 (−0.89/game).
    • Confirmed Mahle xERA 3.89 versus Singer 5.73; 2026 wRC+ is Atlanta 92.36 versus Cincinnati 64.7.
    • Mahle's Atlanta sample is only 8 starts and 49.33 innings; late lineup or scratch news could change the estimate.
  2. Atlanta Braves first-five to win (first 5 innings)Favorite2 models agree
    +48%Won

    Taken at −210 on FanDuel

    2 modelsPuddinsPOP F5 MLB, The Core 6 Independent Syndicate
    Why 2 models like it
    PuddinsPOP F5 MLB
    • Mahle: 3.89 xERA and .304 xwOBA allowed; Singer: 5.73 xERA and .361 xwOBA allowed.
    • Mahle's last five starts: 30.7 innings, 4 earned runs; Singer's: 22.3 innings, 28 earned runs.
    • Singer reached five innings only twice in his last five starts; early Reds bullpen entry adds F5 workload uncertainty.
    The Core 6 Independent Syndicate
    • Singer: 5.73 xERA and .361 xwOBA allowed; Mahle: 3.89 xERA and .304 xwOBA allowed.
    • Recent form reinforces the gap: Singer's ERA_l3/l5 is 15.32/11.28 versus Mahle's 0.95/1.17.
    • Atlanta's .323 xwOBA versus right-handers is only modestly above Cincinnati's .309.
  3. Atlanta Braves F5 winner (first 5 innings)
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model: Atlanta 61%, draw 20%, Cincinnati 19%; venue devigged Atlanta is 56.4%, gap +4.6p.
    • Mahle L5: 1.17 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 30.67 IP; Singer L5: 11.28 ERA, 2.42 WHIP, 22.33 IP.
    • Posted top-three lineup xwOBA: Atlanta .362 versus Cincinnati .319; this supports Atlanta's starter-quality edge.
    • Singer's L5 workload is 4.47 IP/start, below the 4.7 guideline; regression or a short outing can erase the edge.
  4. No 8th-inning draw
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 68c Atlanta moneyline anchor and 67.6% Pinnacle devig point to a Braves-leaning game.
    • Polymarket full-game totals of 56c over 7.5 and 47c over 8.5 fit an approximately 8.4, 8.5 run center.
    • The 2026 MLB final sample has 2,298 games: 8.96 average runs, 8-run median, 15-run 90th percentile; the right-skewed shape is used rather than a symmetric assumption.
    • Per-inning contracts are thinner than the anchors, and this specific rung has no exposed market-history series to verify whether its quote is frozen.
  5. Atlanta Braves over 7.5 runs scored
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kalshi team-total medians sum to 11 runs (Atlanta 7, Cincinnati 4), versus a 12-run game-total median: a one-run fire against a 0.75-run tolerance.
    • Atlanta leads 4-2 after two innings and needs four more runs for 8+.
    • Brady Singer is right-handed with 5.73 xERA and .361 xwOBA allowed; Atlanta owns a .3265 xwOBA versus right-handers.
    • The one-run coherence gap does not identify which team-total rung is wrong.
  6. Total runs under 6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 34¢ on Polymarket US

    Parity DeskUp 29% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Partial ledger: CIN xwOBA .3085 vs RHP gives −0.50, capped at −0.40; ATL .3229 gives 0.00; bullpen adjustments 0.00.
    • Most likely loss: Atlanta's .3229 xwOBA versus RHP and Singer's 4.67 xFIP produce seven or more runs.
Show all 22 picks
  1. Brady Singer over 3.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −122 on DraftKings

    MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODELUp 24% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed Braves nine-man lineup owns a 23.2% K rate versus right-handers (742 Ks in 3,200 PA).
    • Last-five workload is 22.33 innings and 466 pitches, supporting roughly 21, 22 expected batters faced.
    • Poisson-binomial projection: 4.4 strikeouts and approximately 63% probability of clearing 3.5; projected gap is 0.9 Ks.
    • Junior Valentine is a negative zone fit for Singer (fit z −2.56; called-strike delta −0.00), so no umpire boost was applied.
  2. Ke'Bryan Hayes under 0.5 RBIsFavoriteHigh conviction
    +18%Won

    Taken at −551 on DraftKings

    Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 0 RBIs in 9 of his last 10 games (90% hitless rate; 18 at-bats).
    • His .133 AVG versus right-handed pitching is 45.1% below the .243 league average.
    • He is confirmed batting ninth; Tyler Mahle is the confirmed opposing right-handed starter.
    • Only 18 recent at-bats and 177 vs-RHP PA make the samples thin.
  3. Game total runs over 8.5
    +102%Won

    Taken at +102 on FanDuel

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected total 8.8 runs; fair total line 8.8; Over 8.5 win probability 54%; push probability 0%.
    • Official 9-man lineups and starters were locked at 5:40 PM CDT; Braves lineup xwOBA vs RHP is .327, Reds .310.
    • Atlanta's bullpen has thrown 134 pitches over 8.33 innings in three days; Truist Park factors are 102 runs and 105 home runs.
    • Tyler Mahle has a 3.89 xERA and .304 xwOBA allowed, with a 91.64 mph fastball that can suppress Cincinnati.
  4. Tyler Mahle under 5.5 strikeouts
    +120%Won

    Taken at +120 on DraftKings

    K’sUp 9% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model λ ≈4.6 Ks: projected 23.5 TBF and adjusted K rate ≈19.7%.
    • Six-test review held: removing the L5 9-K outlier lowers the projection, cross-source whiff/SwStr/CSW signals agree, and no IL or pitch-limit flag is present; +117 is above the model's fair range.
    • Mahle averages 23.8 TBF and 94.4 pitches across his last five starts, so normal workload can still reach six Ks.
  5. Brady Singer 6+ strikeouts: NoFavorite
    +20%Won

    Taken at 83¢ on Kalshi

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Singer's last 10 starts produced 37 Ks (3.7 per start); last five: 0, 5, 3, 5, 5.
    • The 6+ NO edge is only slightly above the +3% action gate, so model error and count variance matter.
  6. Game total over 8.5
    +102%Won

    Taken at +102 on FanDuel

    BelloUp 7% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Atlanta is averaging 4.8 runs over its last 10; Truist Park carries a 102 run factor.
    • Brady Singer's L3 form: 4.11 IP/start, 23.35 pitches/IP, 15.32 ERA and 2.92 WHIP.
    • Tyler Mahle's L3 form: 6.33 IP/start and 15.21 pitches/IP; recent stuff is stable at +0.31 mph and −70 rpm versus season.
    • Cincinnati is in a ghost-offense state at 2.8 runs/game over its last 10, creating a real one-sided scoring failure path.
  7. Brady Singer under 3.5 strikeouts
    +100%Won

    Taken at +100 on FanDuel

    Señor StrikeoutsUp 4% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Singer has 0, 5, and 3 strikeouts in his last three starts; his recent L3 K/9 is 5.84.
    • FanDuel offers +100 on the under, while the live board lists over −128, giving the under a plus-money entry against a low-K opponent.
    • Singer still reached 5 strikeouts in two of his last five starts, so ordinary variance can beat a 3.5 line.
  8. Cincinnati Reds under 7 total runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
  9. Atlanta Braves run line −1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Atlanta −1.5 is a half-run line; it cannot push and wins only when Atlanta wins by 2+.
    • The measured gap is modest; a small quote change or game-specific margin shape can erase it.
  10. Game total under 8.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    Selective PressureUp 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Own estimate: 57% under 8.5 versus a 54¢ Kalshi under price.
    • Atlanta and Cincinnati carry .3265 and .303 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching, respectively.
    • Recent scoring has been modest: Atlanta scored 19 runs in its last five listed games; Cincinnati scored 17 in six.
    • Brady Singer's slate xERA is 5.73, creating meaningful early-run risk.
  11. Elly De La Cruz over 0.5 hitsFavorite
    +52%Won

    Taken at −193 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed batting second in the posted Cincinnati lineup.
    • 7 hits in his last 10 games (70% recent hit rate).
    • 2026 average is .265 versus right-handed pitching; Tyler Mahle is confirmed right-handed.
    • Recent sample is only 10 games and includes no guarantee of four plate appearances.
  12. Tyler Mahle over 15.5 outsFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 74¢ on Kalshi

    +EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Mahle reached at least 16 outs in 9 of his last 10 starts, averaging 18.3 outs.
    • Recent workload averaged 92.4 pitches; his season average is 16.62 outs and 88.88 pitches.
    • Full-season threshold rate is only 15 of 26 starts; the recent 9-of-10 run may regress.
  13. Tyler Mahle 6 or more pitching strikeouts: No
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 26-start innings prior: <5.0 IP 11.5%, 5.0, 5.9 46.2%, 6.0, 6.9 30.8%, 7+ 11.5%; mean 5.54.
    • F5 over 4.5 costs 0.51 and Cincinnati 2.5+ runs costs 0.57, structurally consistent with innings truncation rather than dominance.
    • Mahle reached 6+ in 10 of 26 starts; the empirical under rate is not overwhelming.
  14. Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves total over 8
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Brady Singer owns a 5.73 xERA and 4.67 xFIP; Atlanta posts .3229 xwOBA and .419 SLG versus right-handers.
    • Singer's recent line worsened sharply: 11.28 ERA and 7.25 K/9 over his last five starts, versus 15.32 ERA and 5.84 K/9 over his last three.
    • Atlanta's nine-man lineup was posted at 3:40 PM PDT, satisfying the roster gate; the matchup is locked against Singer's right-handed profile.
    • Mahle is not vulnerable: 3.89 xERA, 3.81 xFIP, and a 1.17 ERA over his last five starts; Cincinnati's .3085 xwOBA versus right-handers is weak.
  15. First-inning runs: No
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed top-three xwOBA vs RHP: Atlanta .375 average (Baldwin/Acuña/Olson); Cincinnati .320 (Jorge/De La Cruz/Stewart).
    • Mahle's current first-inning BA/K profile is .2936/.2314; Singer's is .2458/.2117, supporting a low-scoring first-frame baseline.
    • Atlanta's confirmed top three are materially stronger than Cincinnati's and can beat the aggregate scoreless-rate baseline.
  16. Ronald Acuña Jr. over 1.5 total bases
    +109%Won

    Taken at +109 on DraftKings

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 6 of his last 10 games cleared 1.5 total bases; he averaged 2.7 TB.
    • His .680 SLG over the last 7 games is 45.7% above his .467 season mark.
    • Singer enters with a 5.43 ERA and 1.56 WHIP; Acuña is confirmed batting second.
    • The 10-game sample is thin, and Acuña missed the mark in 4 of those games.

Questions

Who won Reds vs. Braves?

The Reds won 7-6 on Thursday, Sep 24, 2026.

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