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FinalFenway Park
Guardians82-76
1-0
Red Sox85-73
Score by period
Team123456789T
CLE0100000001
BOS0000000000

Top model pick, graded

Won

Cleveland Guardians +1.5 79¢

Why Ledger Balance likes it: Polymarket US anchors: Cleveland 59.5¢ moneyline and 6.5 total, a modest favorite in a low-scoring game.

Ledger BalanceDown 2% this season · 543 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 8-15 on this game · −34% return

  1. Ranger Suarez under 4.5 strikeouts3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi

    3 modelsK-Zone Fade, K’s +1
    Why 3 models like it
    K-Zone Fade
    • Suarez's K/9 has fallen from 8.48 season-long to 7.32 over his last three starts.
    • His 85.11 average pitches per start is below the 88-pitch hook threshold.
    • Season K/9 and 5.31 innings per start imply roughly 5.0 Ks if his recent decline reverses.
    K’s
    • 2026 profile: 22.8% K rate (135/593 BF); last 10 starts fell to 17.5% (38/217), with L3/L5 K/9 at 7.32/6.60 versus 8.48 season.
    • The under survives outlier removal, dropping recent form, arsenal-weighted whiff cross-check (21.6%) versus profile whiff (21.9%), and workload overrides; projected lambda is about 4.1, P(K≤4) about 60%.
    • The 10-start sample is noisy, and three recent games reached 5+ Ks; one efficient outing can defeat the under.
    Picks with pink pro reader
    • Model probability 66% versus 59.8% implied by −149: 6.2 percentage-point value margin.
    • Suarez stayed under 4.5 Ks in 7 of his last 10 starts.
    • He struck out eight Guardians in his September 12 start and reached five in his latest outing.
  2. Boston Red Sox to win3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −130 on FanDuel

    3 modelsMLB ML Deep Dive, Drift +1
    Why 3 models like it
    MLB ML Deep Dive
    • Independent fair probability: Boston 59%; fair line approximately −144.
    • Ranger Suarez: 3.33 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 3.73 xERA and .298 xwOBA allowed over 143.1 innings.
    • Espino's 14.85 K/9 creates substantial strikeout-driven upside despite the tiny sample.
    Drift
    • Boston is +80 in run differential after 158 games; Cleveland is +2.
    • Boston staff SIERA 3.52 and FIP 3.13 versus Cleveland 3.95 and 4.05.
    • Espino's 14.85 K9 and 32.1% CSW create strikeout-driven upset variance.
    Selective Pressure
    • My composite read makes Boston approximately 57%: +80 run differential and .557 Pythagorean win rate versus Cleveland's .501.
    • Ranger Suarez has 143.3 innings, a 3.33 ERA and 1.20 WHIP; Cleveland is using Daniel Espino as an opener before Joey Cantillo.
    • Espino's 14.85 K/9 and .291 xwOBA allowed are strong despite his small 13.33-inning sample.
  3. Cleveland Guardians +1.5Favorite
    +27%Won

    Taken at 79¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket US anchors: Cleveland 59.5¢ moneyline and 6.5 total, a modest favorite in a low-scoring game.
    • The 2025-26 MLB sample averages 8.92 runs with an 8-run median; 6.5 is a materially compressed scoring environment.
    • This is internal coherence, with the live sharp reference independently pointing toward Cleveland and a low total.
    • The fitted 83% estimate is approximate; the current 1-0 score in the second inning can move the live distribution quickly.
  4. No cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox 2nd-inning draw
    +163%Won

    Taken at 38¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full-game anchors imply a low-scoring game: Boston is about a 54% favorite and the total anchor is 6.5.
    • The 6.5 total is priced near 52% over by Polymarket US and about 52% by the sharp reference, so the anchors agree.
    • First-inning draw is 60¢ on the same board; second-inning draw is 68¢ despite the same fitted run process.
    • This is a thin, high-variance inning market; the estimated edge is small after the exchange spread and fees.
  5. Boston Red Sox over 3.5 runs scored
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Posted nine-man Boston lineup is captured; Boston owns a .3157 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching, and Daniel Espino is the listed RHP.
    • Fenway's game preview run factor is 108; the venue adds scoring upside despite 59°F conditions.
    • Espino has no usable pitcher-profile row in the warehouse, so his current quality and workload are uncertain.
  6. Ranger Suarez over 15.5 outs recorded
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +102 on FanDuel

    MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded ModelUp 27% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 61% projected clear probability; 16.8 projected outs, a 1.3-out edge over 15.5.
    • Last five starts: 15, 16, 17, 21, 21 outs; Suarez cleared in 4 of 5.
    • Recent workload averaged 95.8 pitches; Boston's bullpen threw 121 pitches over the prior two days.
    • Full-season baseline is only 15.93 outs with 13 of 27 starts clearing 15.5; the edge is recent-form dependent.
Show all 19 picks
  1. Total runs under 6.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    Parity DeskUp 29% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Cleveland vs left-handers: .3076 xwOBA over 1,925 PA triggers a −0.50-run ledger.
    • Boston vs right-handers: .3112 xwOBA over 4,436 PA; no opposing platoon penalty added.
    • Polymarket US Under costs 0.48; OPEN, tradable, both sides quoted, sum 1.00.
    • Daniel Espino has only 2 starts and 13.33 innings; short-sample variance can break the under.
  2. First-inning runs over 0.5
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket US

    Ricky NRFI QuantUp 15% over 121 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Model estimate: T1 xRuns 0.24, B1 xRuns 0.24; total 0.48 implies 62% NRFI, fair price −163 versus a 59¢ NO contract.
    • Confirmed top-six versus pitcher hand: CLE xwOBA .317/.362/.307/.295/.356/.273; BOS .313/.387/.334/.348/.290/.285.
    • Espino's first-inning sample is only 2 games and 11 plate appearances; he has 3 first-inning walks in that sample.
  3. Boston Red Sox spread −1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 36¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Boston run differential is +80 versus Cleveland +2 through 158 games; model cover probability 39%.
    • Espino's 14.85 K/9 and 32.1% CSW can overpower Boston despite his 4.72 ERA.
  4. Boston Red Sox win the 7th inningLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 21¢ on Polymarket US

    Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 7th-inning board flips the side: Cleveland 22¢ versus Boston 21¢; full-game Boston is 54¢ versus Cleveland 46.5¢.
    • F5 winner also favors Boston 49¢ to Cleveland 35¢, with a 19¢ draw.
    • Late bullpen mechanism: Cleveland had 8 appearances, 6.0 IP, 116 pitches and 7 arms in 3 days; Boston had 6, 6.33, 121 and 6.
    • No external sharp per-inning reference exists; venue self-reference can be noisy and fee-adjusted.
  5. Game total over 6.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on DraftKings

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: 7.2 projected total runs; fair total line 7.0; Over 6.5 win probability 58.2%; push probability 0%; model timestamp 5:15 PM CDT.
    • Boston's vs-RHP lineup posted a .311 team xwOBA; Cleveland's vs-LHP lineup posted .308, both lineups 1, 9 confirmed at 5:10 PM CDT.
    • Both bullpens carried heavy three-day workloads: Boston 121 pitches and Cleveland 116, increasing late-inning run volatility.
    • Daniel Espino's 14.85 K/9 and .291 season xwOBA allowed could suppress Boston; the sample is only 13.33 innings.
  6. Ranger Suarez 5+ strikeouts: No
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed Boston lineup is contact-heavy versus LHP at 20.4% K, below the brief's 22% threshold.
    • Workload is insulated: last four pitch counts 98, 96, 91, 101; projected workload is 5.9 IP with none below 70.
    • Season K/9 is 8.48, but recent K/9 is 7.32 L3 and 6.60 L5; last five Ks were 5, 8, 3, 2, 4.
    • Last-10 form still includes 8 and 6 Ks; Suarez can clear five if the whiff pitches play up.
  7. Cleveland Guardians under 2.5 runs
    +120%Won

    Taken at +120 on FanDuel

    BelloUp 7% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Cleveland vs left-handed pitching: .232 AVG, .369 SLG, .308 xwOBA, and 20.4% K rate this season.
    • Ranger Suarez's last three starts: 19.67 IP, 2 ER, 14.49 pitches/IP; the workload gate clears 5.0 IP.
    • Physical check is stable: last-three velocity 86.17 mph vs 85.93 season (+0.24), spin 2,015 rpm vs 1,981 (+34); no verified decay.
    • Cleveland is not in Ghost Offense status: it averaged 4.9 runs over its last 10 completed games.
  8. Game total under 7
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX quotes under 7 at 56.33¢ versus under 6.5 at 48.78¢, a 7.55¢ gap.
    • Under 7 loses at eight or more runs; exactly seven is a push, not a win.
  9. Cleveland Guardians run line +1.5Favorite
    +54%Won

    Taken at 65¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX same-side prices: Guardians +1.5 at 65.03¢ versus +1 at 57.26¢, only a 7.77¢ gap.
    • Guardians +1.5 loses on Boston wins by two or more; the push mass is not a win probability.
  10. Adley Rutschman over 0.5 hits
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −171 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model probability 68% versus 63.1% implied by −171: 4.9 percentage-point value margin.
    • Rutschman recorded a hit in 7 of his last 10 games, totaling 10 hits in 40 plate appearances.
    • His 2026 split versus right-handed pitching is .252 across 230 at-bats.
    • Daniel Espino's 14.85 season K/9 creates a direct swing-and-miss threat despite only 13.33 innings.
  11. Boston Red Sox run line −1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 36¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Espino's profile shows 4.72 ERA, 4.30 FIP and 9.00 L3/L5 ERA after only 13.33 innings.
    • Boston vs right-handed pitching clears the platoon gate with .4088 SLG and .2094 K rate; its nine-man lineup was posted.
    • Cashing likelihood: supported by Espino's recent strike-quality collapse and Cleveland's 116 bullpen pitches over six innings in three days.
    • Most likely loss: Boston wins by exactly one, or Espino's 98.84-mph fastball overwhelms a thin 65-pitch recent sample.
  12. Over 0.5 runs in the 1st inning
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Boston's posted 1-2-3 is Nick Sogard/Mickey Gasper/Adley Rutschman against RHP Daniel Espino; Cleveland's is Steven Kwan/José Ramírez/Chase DeLauter against LHP Ranger Suárez.
    • Boston's vs-LHP team xwOBA is .3168 and Cleveland's vs-RHP team xwOBA is .3134; the full-game 6.5 total is NOT a valid RFI reference because it answers a different innings distribution.
    • Daniel Espino's first-inning sample is only 2 games and 11 PA, so his 25% first-inning BA and 1 HR are unstable.
  13. Game total under 6.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Sharp reference agrees: Pinnacle under 6.5 was −113 at 13:12 PT. Fenway weather was 59°F with wind in from center.
    • Starters were posted at 13:10 PT. Ranger Suarez: 3.33 ERA; Daniel Espino: 4.72 ERA in a 13.33-inning sample.
    • LEAN only. The 3.64x ratio is below the 10x recommended threshold.

Questions

Who won Guardians vs. Red Sox?

The Guardians won 1-0 on Thursday, Sep 24, 2026.

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