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FinalCoors Field
Diamondbacks82-74
7-2
Rockies57-99
Score by period
Team123456789T
ARI3011101007
COL0020000002

Top model pick, graded

Won

Arizona Diamondbacks to win −181

Why Brewing MLB Ml likes it: Michael Soroka owns a 4.21 expected ERA versus Kyle Freeland's 5.33; season ERAs are 3.45 versus 6.38.

Brewing MLB MlUp 27% return this season · 70 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 15-12 on this game · −0% return

  1. Arizona Diamondbacks to win5 models agree
    +55%Won

    Taken at −181 on DraftKings

    5 modelsBrewing MLB Ml, weak-pitcher fade ML #1180 +3
    Why 5 models like it
    Brewing MLB Ml
    • Michael Soroka owns a 4.21 expected ERA versus Kyle Freeland's 5.33; season ERAs are 3.45 versus 6.38.
    • Arizona's lineup xwOBA versus left-handed pitching is .326 versus Colorado's .304 against right-handed pitching.
    • Freeland's last-five ERA is 3.10 versus Soroka's 4.19, giving Colorado the recent-starter edge.
    weak-pitcher fade ML #1180
    • Freeland: 6.38 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 5.33 xERA, and .350 xwOBA allowed.
    • Arizona's posted lineup: .3374 PA-weighted xwOBA and .4652 SLG versus left-handed pitching.
    • Arizona's bullpen used 5 arms, 6.33 innings, and 85 pitches over the last three days.
    Fade the Arm
    • Freeland owns a 5.33 xERA and 6.38 ERA; his 4.25 xFIP still leaves run-prevention uncertainty.
    • Times-through-order decay: Freeland's third-time-through-order xwOBA is .4019 versus .3213 the second time.
    • Freeland's last-five ERA is 4.60, materially better than his 6.38 season ERA.
    Deep Book
    • Lineups posted at 5:00 PM PDT. Soroka: 3.45 ERA, 1.13 WHIP. Freeland: 6.38 ERA, 1.47 WHIP.
    • ProphetX board as_of_pt: 2026-09-22T17:06:35-07:00. Run-line flow also leaned Arizona, but weakly.
    • LEAN. The 7.9x ratio is below the 10x RECOMMENDED threshold.
  2. Michael Soroka over 4.5 strikeouts3 models agree
    +105%Won

    Taken at +105 on DraftKings

    3 modelsK’s, Señor Strikeouts +1
    Why 3 models like it
    K’s
    • Model mean is approximately 4.9 Ks: 20.5 projected TBF × 23.2% blended rate, including the +1.52-point matchup delta.
    • Estimated over probability is about 54% with a 51.6%-57% stress range versus 48.8% breakeven at +105.
    • Recent workload averages 19.6 TBF/start, below his 22.6-season TBF/start baseline, so five strikeouts needs adequate leash.
    Señor Strikeouts
    • Soroka has a 9.00 K/9 over his last three starts and 8.38 over his last five.
    • His slurve generates a 35.2% whiff rate; David Rackley's pitcher fit is favorable at +2.44 z.
    • He reached five strikeouts in only one of his last three starts: 6, 4, and 3.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Estimated true probability ~56%, about 6.5 points above FanDuel's 49.5% break-even.
    • Soroka owns an 8.71 K/9 season mark, with 9.00 K/9 over his last three starts.
    • Soroka averaged 4.4 strikeouts across his last five starts, leaving limited margin above 4.5.
  3. Colorado Rockies team total over 2.5Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 71¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Arizona's live moneyline anchor is 84.5c, while the full-game total anchor is 11.5 with Over at 56.5c.
    • Three runs have scored by the top of the 2nd, reinforcing the board's elevated run-environment signal.
    • The 2023-26 MLB final-game baseline is 9.15 runs (median 9; 90th percentile 15), below this live fitted environment.
    • The two anchors do not uniquely identify the team-run split; the approximately 77% estimate uses an approximate empirical calibration.
  4. First-five total over 5.5 (first 5 innings)
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Internal coherence: anchors imply a 62.5% Arizona win probability and a 10.5-run full-game environment.
    • In 1,373 recent MLB games with full totals of 10-11, the first-five mean was 5.96 runs.
    • FanDuel's independently posted first-five over 5.5 at −138 corroborates the high-scoring first-five shape.
    • The structural edge is modest: roughly 3-4 probability points before exchange costs and fees.
  5. 2nd-inning draw
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Anchor fit: Polymarket US prices Arizona to win at 63¢ and the full-game over 10.5 at 54¢.
    • 2026 empirical first-nine data shows a 59.8% second-inning draw rate across 2,340 games.
    • Scaling that right-skewed inning distribution toward the anchor total near 10.5, 11 still puts the draw around 55%.
    • The elevated run environment can suppress ties; the estimated cushion is only about 4¢.
  6. Colorado Rockies over 3.5 runs scored
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Unit sanity: Kalshi's raw 0.49 is fractional probability, equal to 49¢; converted bet price is +104.
    • Confirmed Colorado lineup faced right-handed Michael Soroka; the matchup board lists Colorado at .3189 xwOBA versus him.
    • Coors Field park-factor runs were 117; conditions were 76°F with a 5-mph wind.
    • Colorado was scoreless through two innings and still needs four runs to clear 3.5.
Show all 21 picks
  1. Kyle Freeland under 2.5 strikeouts
    +98%Won

    Taken at −102 on FanDuel

    K-Zone FadeUp 39% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Freeland's last three starts produced 8 Ks in 15.67 innings: 4.60 K/9 versus a 7.29 season K/9.
    • His 2026 average is 85.67 pitches per start, below the 88-pitch hook threshold.
    • Freeland's 7.29 season K/9 over 128.3 innings shows the recent three-start dip could rebound.
  2. Kyle Freeland strikeouts over 2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −125 on FanDuel

    MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODELUp 24% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Poisson-binomial projection clears 2 Ks in approximately 80% of simulations, about 1.8 Ks above the posted line.
    • David Rackley is confirmed behind the plate; his starter fit is mildly positive (+0.00 called-strike delta).
    • FanDuel's −125 price is materially below the model's estimated break-even for the over.
    • Freeland's latest outing was only 4.0 innings and 50 pitches on a reported tight count; an unannounced cap would sharply reduce the over probability.
  3. Tim Tawa hits over 0.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 33¢ on Kalshi

    Quiet BatUp 14% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tawa is confirmed 8th in Arizona's lineup: projected 3.6 PA; versus LHP, 87 PA produced .218 AVG and .282 xwOBA.
    • His season contact profile is weak for this spot: 24.9% K rate, 82.9% zone-contact, and 26.5% hard-hit.
    • Colorado's Coors Field run factor is 117, a clear hitter-friendly environment that can create a cheap hit.
  4. Colorado Rockies 8th-inning winnerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 17¢ on Polymarket US

    Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Colorado's 8th-inning price is 0.17, below its 7th (0.23) and 9th (0.19) prices.
    • Full-game Colorado is 0.38 and F5 Colorado is 0.35; the isolated 8th-inning trough is structurally out of step.
    • Arizona has 6.33 IP, 85 pitches and 5 arms used in three days; Colorado has 4.0 IP, 77 pitches and 2 arms.
    • No sharp per-inning reference exists; the coherence comparison is venue self-reference plus matchup mechanism.
  5. Game total runs over 10.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −132 on FanDuel

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: 11.6 projected total runs, 11.5 fair total line, 58.9% win probability, 0% push probability; snapshot 7:10 PM CDT.
    • Coors Field carries a 117 runs park factor; 76°F with 9-mph wind out to center supports run conversion.
    • Kyle Freeland allows .402 xwOBA third time through; Michael Soroka's third-time-through K rate is .291, leaving late-inning scoring paths.
    • Colorado's recent vs-RHP window xwOBA is only .3166 and Arizona's recent vs-LHP window is .2877, so the lineup signal is mixed.
  6. Michael Soroka 5+ strikeouts: No
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection 4.5 Ks; fair NO probability 59% (fair price 59¢) versus executable 53¢.
    • Soroka's last five starts produced 6, 4, 3, 5, 4 Ks; last-four pitch counts were 80, 58, 84, 80.
    • The 5+ NO rung is better priced than sportsbook Under 4.5, which ranged from −125 to −130; Kalshi NO was 53¢.
    • Coors Field and a 76°F, 9-mph wind-out environment create a wide run and workload distribution.
  7. Michael Soroka under 14.5 outs recorded
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +118 on FanDuel

    BelloUp 7% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Soroka averaged 4.11 IP and 18.0 pitches/IP across his last three starts; two of three stayed below 14.5 outs.
    • Current stuff is stable, not decay: rolling velocity is −0.04 mph and spin is +30 rpm versus his 2026 baseline.
    • Arizona's bullpen has only 55 pitches over the last three days, preserving a credible early-hook route.
    • Soroka reached exactly 5.0 IP and 15 outs in his most recent start, so normal workload can beat this number.
  8. Game total over 10.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket

    Loose Cohort MLBUp 5% last 30 days
  9. First-inning run
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US

    Brewing MLB NRFI/YRFI Stat BasedUp 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Coors Field produced YRFI in 70.9% of 79 games this season; 64.4% across 160 games since April 2025.
    • Kyle Freeland allows a .311 first-inning BA and .342 xwOBA; his season ERA is 6.38 with 1.89 HR/9.
    • Confirmed top-four orders show Arizona averaging .350 versus left-handers and Colorado .320 versus right-handers by top-four xwOBA.
    • Michael Soroka is the stabilizer: .239 first-inning BA and .315 season xwOBA allowed, with 3.45 ERA.
  10. Colorado Rockies run line −1Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 28¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX quotes whole −1 at +255 (28.17¢) versus adjacent −1.5 at +310 (24.39¢): only a 3.78¢ premium.
    • The contract loses on a Rockies loss; it only pushes on exactly a one-run Rockies win and cashes at two or more.
  11. Nolan Arenado over 1.5 total basesHigh conviction
    +85%Won

    Taken at −118 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model: 67% versus DraftKings implied 54.1%, a 12.9-point value margin.
    • Arenado cleared 1.5 total bases in 7 of his last 10 games, with 32 TB in 35 AB.
    • Against left-handers this season: .540 SLG; Freeland owns a 6.38 ERA and 1.89 HR/9.
    • The 10-game power surge is a small, high-variance sample and can regress sharply.
  12. Kyle Freeland 3 or more pitching strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 15-start proxy: 10/15 cleared 3+ K (66.7%); mean 4.33 K and 5.73 innings.
    • Freeland ladder screened: 5 contracts; 3 quoted and monotone at 1+ 0.93, 2+ 0.76, 3+ 0.54.
    • Last five starts cleared 3+ only 3/5, averaging 3.8 strikeouts.
  13. Arizona Diamondbacks run line −1.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kyle Freeland's 2026 xFIP is 4.25 against a 6.38 ERA, with a 7.29 K/9 and 0.27 CSW%; the profile is vulnerable despite the surface ERA.
    • Velocity signal, Freeland's season fastball baseline is 89.87 mph, but his latest start was 88.37 mph; third-time-through-order xwOBA is .4019 versus .3571 first time through.
    • Most likely loss: Freeland avoids the third trip through the order, and Colorado's rested-enough relief group contains Arizona after an early exit.
  14. First-inning runs
    +72%Won

    Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Arizona's posted Vargas, Marte, Moreno top three are confirmed; Arizona's vs-L proxy is .3262 xwOBA with a .1782 K rate.
    • Coors runs park factor is 117; 76°F and 9-mph wind out to center add first-frame run context.
    • The model-market gap is only about 3 percentage points; one early double, walk or stranded runner dominates a low-sample binary outcome.
  15. Colorado Rockies spread +1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days

Questions

Who won Diamondbacks vs. Rockies?

The Diamondbacks won 7-2 on Tuesday, Sep 22, 2026.

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