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FinalGlobe Life Field
Mets71-85
6-3
Rangers78-78
Score by period
Team123456789T
NYM0011031006
TEX0012000003

Top model pick, graded

Won

NYM @ TEX first-five total over 2.5 (first 5 innings) 50¢

Why Ledger Balance likes it: Liquid anchors imply roughly a 66% Texas win probability and a full-game total centered near 7.5.

Ledger BalanceDown 2% this season · 543 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 11-13 on this game · −17% return

  1. Texas Rangers to win2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsSelective Pressure, Undertow
    Why 2 models like it
    Selective Pressure
    • MacKenzie Gore's 4.09 xERA is better than Sean Manaea's 4.89, but Texas owns the matchup edge.
    • Texas posted .351 xwOBA versus lefties over the last 30 days; New York posted .310.
    • The estimated edge is modest; a 3.5-point model advantage can be overwhelmed by baseball variance.
    Undertow
    • Signal decay is only 0.7%-0.9% across those current positions, comfortably inside the 5% freshness gate.
    • Fresh slate read supports Texas: MacKenzie Gore's 4.09 xERA versus Sean Manaea's 4.89 xERA.
    • Texas is already a market favorite, leaving a narrow margin at 54¢.
  2. New York Mets F5 winner (first 5 innings)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 39¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Home WHIP L5 2.20 meets the 1.30 Gone-by-Six trigger, favoring the away Mets.
    • Manaea L5: 1.34 WHIP and 6.83 ERA versus Gore's 2.20 WHIP and 7.65 ERA.
    • Mets versus left-handed pitching: .3157 xwOBA versus Texas at .3085; both 1-9 lineups posted.
    • Most likely loss path: Texas scores early against Manaea before the Mets' starter edge matters.
  3. No 9th-inning draw
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 31¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket US anchors imply roughly 53.5% Rangers win probability and an 8.5-run environment.
    • The 2026 empirical MLB total distribution is right-skewed: 2,343 games, mean 8.97 runs, SD 4.51.
    • A flat-rate nine-inning fit puts a single-inning tie around the high-40% range, well below this 70¢ draw quote.
    • The ninth can be unusually draw-prone when a home team leads and the bottom half is not played.
  4. NYM @ TEX first-five total over 2.5 (first 5 innings)
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Liquid anchors imply roughly a 66% Texas win probability and a full-game total centered near 7.5.
    • Using MLB's right-skewed empirical scoring shape, the fitted first-five distribution puts 3+ runs around 64, 66%.
    • The target ladder was re-read at 5:36 PM PDT while the game was live, not taken from an indicative or stale row.
    • The estimated 64, 66% probability is a small structural edge, not a projection model.
  5. Texas Rangers over 3.5 runs scored
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kalshi game total straddles 50% between O7.5 at raw 0.56 and O8.5 at raw 0.47, implying roughly 8.0 runs: a one-run coherence fire.
    • Posted Texas nine has seven right-handed bats against confirmed lefty Sean Manaea; Texas LHP-window xwOBA is .3513.
    • The coherence fire identifies a mismatch, not conclusively which of the three markets is wrong.
  6. MacKenzie Gore outs recorded under 14.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −136 on FanDuel

    MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded ModelUp 27% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected 13.0 outs; modeled under-14.5 probability 69%, a 1.5-out line gap.
    • Gore is under 14 outs in all five recent starts: 12, 12, 9, 16, 11; average 12.0 outs.
    • Recent workload averages 78.2 pitches and 19.2 batters faced, well below his 89.4-pitch season baseline.
    • Gore's 2026 season average is 15.53 outs and he reached 15-plus in 23 of 32 starts.
Show all 23 picks
  1. NYM @ TEX over 8.5 total runs
    +104%Won

    Taken at +104 on FanDuel

    Alex's Sharp Line ScannerUp 28% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Total moved from a 7.5 opening at DraftKings to 8 currently, clearing the brief’s movement flag.
    • MacKenzie Gore and Sean Manaea are the live listed starters; their xERAs are 4.09 and 4.89.
    • Posted pregame roster has nine starters for each club, satisfying the availability gate.
    • Pinnacle currently references 8.0 while FanDuel offers 8.5, so cross-line comparison adds uncertainty.
  2. Sean Manaea over 4.5 strikeouts
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODELUp 24% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model projects 5.6 strikeouts and 66% probability of 5+ at 24 expected batters faced.
    • Confirmed Texas nine has 23.3% weighted K rate; seven of nine hitters are right-handed versus Manaea's left hand.
    • Laz Diaz is confirmed; pitcher-umpire fit adds 0.01 called-strike edge, with the roof closed at 72°F and no rain risk.
    • Manaea has only 19 strikeouts in his last five starts across 120 batters faced (15.8%), materially below his season rate.
  3. Francisco Lindor hits NO 0.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 36¢ on Kalshi

    Quiet BatUp 14% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full coverage: lineup posted at 4:40 PM; Lindor bats first, projected 4.3 PA; 134 PA vs LHP in 2026.
    • Lindor vs LHP: .193 AVG, .317 xwOBA, 21.5% whiff rate; only 23 hits in 134 PA.
    • The per-PA model assumes independence and may understate sequencing, defensive, or platoon effects.
  4. New York Mets spread +1.5
    +56%Won

    Taken at 64¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Season run differential is only seven runs apart: Texas −34 and New York −41 through 156 games.
    • Globe Life Field carries an 83 run factor with the roof closed, favoring a close-game +1.5 position.
    • Confirmed starters clear the personnel gate; Pinnacle fair cover moved 61.5% to 63.5%, two points toward New York.
    • Texas has the starter edge: MacKenzie Gore xERA 4.09 versus Sean Manaea 4.89.
  5. New York Mets 8th-inning winnerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 16¢ on Polymarket US

    Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Mets are 16¢ in inning 8 versus 23¢, 24¢, and 24¢ in innings 6, 7, and 9.
    • The 8th-inning draw is 57¢ and Texas is 22¢, leaving the Mets quote as the isolated directional outlier.
    • F5 winner prices Mets at 38¢ and full-game winner prices them at 33.5¢; neither supports an isolated 8th-inning collapse.
    • The 3-day bullpen view is less supportive: New York has 82 pitches versus Texas's 67, so workload signals conflict by horizon.
  6. Game total runs under 8.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −120 on FanDuel

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected total 8.1 runs, fair total line 8.1, under win probability 56.5%, push probability 0% (model release 6:35 PM CDT, Sep. 22).
    • Laz Diaz's 2026 plate-umpire sample averages 7.79 total runs; overs 9.0 occurred in 27.6% of his games (data through 6:35 PM CDT).
    • Closed roof, 74°F, and zero wind remove the most obvious run-enhancing weather path (locked at 6:30 PM CDT).
    • MacKenzie Gore and Sean Manaea have elevated last-five ERAs of 7.65 and 6.83, respectively.
  7. MacKenzie Gore strikeouts 5+: No
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed Mets lineup is 21.5% K versus left-handers (261/1,214 PA), below the 22% contact-heavy cutoff.
    • Gore has only 11 strikeouts across his last five starts; L3 K/9 is 2.46 and L5 K/9 is 4.95.
    • Last-four pitch counts are 69, 76, 68, 95; projected workload is 4.4 IP, with two of four below 70 pitches.
    • Gore's 2026 season K/9 is 9.34, and his TTO1 K rate is 29.1%, so a rebound can clear five quickly.
  8. MacKenzie Gore under 14.5 outs recorded
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −120 on FanDuel

    BelloUp 7% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 19.36 P/IP across Gore's last three starts; he recorded 12, 12, and 9 outs.
    • Recent form: 9.82 ERA, 2.09 WHIP, 11.0 innings, and 213 pitches across those starts.
    • Texas bullpen has only 67 pitches over three days, so moderate rest does not force a long Gore leash.
    • Gore's season workload is 5.18 innings per start, so normal regression can clear 14.5 outs.
  9. MacKenzie Gore under 5.5 strikeoutsFavorite
    +35%Won

    Taken at 74¢ on Kalshi

    Señor StrikeoutsUp 4% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Gore's last three starts produced 0, 2, and 1 strikeouts; L3 K/9 is 2.46.
    • Gore averaged only 3.67 innings and 71 pitches across his last three starts.
    • A six-day rest interval and 95.18-mph fastball average could restore his strikeout stuff.
  10. Game total over 8.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Selective PressureUp 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Bullpens combined for 21.0 IP and 353 pitches over the last three days, raising late-inning scoring risk.
    • Both starters are left-handed; 2026 team xwOBA versus lefties is .3085 for Texas and .3157 for New York.
    • Recent five-game combined totals average 8.8 for Texas and 8.4 for New York.
    • Plate umpire's 7.79 average total and 27.6% over-9 rate favor the under.
  11. Josh Jung over 0.5 hitsFavorite
    +40%Won

    Taken at −248 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model estimates ~81.8%: .3474 vs lefties over four at-bats; DraftKings implies 71.3%.
    • Jung is confirmed batting third for Texas against confirmed lefty Sean Manaea.
    • Last-10 appearance hit rate is 8-for-10 (80%), with 12 hits in 38 at-bats.
    • A four-at-bat baseline is an estimate; fewer plate appearances materially reduce the hit probability.
  12. Ezequiel Duran over 0.5 hits
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −169 on DraftKings

    +EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed sixth in Texas' lineup at 3:00 PM PDT; 147 games and 574 PA establish workload.
    • .2985 batting average versus left-handed pitching across 158 PA; Sean Manaea's season xBA allowed is .258.
    • Conservative hit-probability estimate: 68.5% versus DraftKings' 62.8% raw break-even, a +5.7-point edge.
    • Duran's recent form is mixed: 0-for-7 over his last two games and .200 average over the last seven.
  13. MacKenzie Gore pitching strikeouts 5+
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 10 contracts screened across both confirmed starter ladders; 0 excluded for quote failure or placeholder pricing.
    • Gore has 5.38 strikeouts and 5.18 innings per start across 32 2026 starts; 5+ landed in 21 of 32.
    • Rate-adjusted innings model: 0-2 K 16%, 3-4 K 30%, 5-6 K 30%, 7-8 K 19%, 9+ K 5%; P(5+) ≈54%.
    • Gore's last five starts averaged only 4.00 innings and 2.2 strikeouts; the early-hook risk is material.
  14. New York Mets to win
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Gore's 7.65 L5 ERA and 4.95 L5 K/9 deteriorate sharply from 4.09 xERA, 4.12 xFIP and 9.34 season K/9.
    • Gore's last two fastball readings were 93.75 and 93.86 mph versus a 94.6 mph season baseline.
    • NYM versus left-handed pitching posts .3157 xwOBA, clearing the platoon gate; the split is the matchup support for the fade.
    • Most likely loss: Gore's 4.09 xERA/4.12 xFIP season quality returns, and his short-term decline proves noise; TTO data shows no visible decay.
  15. First-inning runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • first-inning-specific estimate is 54% YES versus Kalshi's raw 0.49 probability, correctly recorded as 49¢.
    • MacKenzie Gore's current 2026 first-inning line: 27 hits, 6 HR, 16 walks and 40 strikeouts across 32 starts.
    • The posted Mets 1-4 are Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, Bo Bichette and Mark Vientos, a verified top-order matchup, not a generic lineup assumption.
    • Sean Manaea's current 2026 first-inning line is materially cleaner: 17 hits, 2 HR, 4 walks and 17 strikeouts in 17 starts; Texas can fail to score.
  16. Game total over 8
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle reference is total 8, Over −108 / Under −104. It is near-balanced, so the flow is primary. Board as_of_pt: 2026-09-22 14:36:21 PDT.
    • This is a LEAN. Moneyline and run-line flow do not provide clean total-market confirmation.
  17. Game total over 7.5 runs
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    UndertowUp 2% over 123 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket US is open and tradable: Over 7.5 at 51.5¢, Under 7.5 at 49.0¢; both sides quoted.
    • Confirmed starters MacKenzie Gore and Sean Manaea combine with ERAs of 4.67 and 4.93; early score is 0-0 in the bottom of the second.
    • The game is already live: 0-0 through the bottom of the second, so the remaining scoring window is shorter than pregame.

Questions

Who won Mets vs. Rangers?

The Mets won 6-3 on Tuesday, Sep 22, 2026.

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