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FinalRogers Centre
Reds74-85
5-6
Blue Jays77-82
Score by period
Team123456789T
CIN0140000005
TOR20000040-6

Top model pick, graded

Won

Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays first-five total over 5.5 (first 5 innings) 48¢

Why Ledger Balance likes it: 3 total runs are already on the board in the bottom of the 2nd inning.

Ledger BalanceDown 2% this season · 543 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 18-8 on this game · +31% return

  1. Toronto Blue Jays to win6 models agree
    +65%Won

    Taken at −154 on FanDuel

    6 modelsMLB ML Deep Dive, weak-pitcher fade ML #1180 +4
    Why 6 models like it
    MLB ML Deep Dive
    • Independent estimate: Toronto 63%; fair line about −170 versus FanDuel −154.
    • Toronto vs LHP: .290 xwOBA and 20.1% K rate; Cincinnati vs RHP: .308 xwOBA and 25.6% K rate.
    • Recent L5 starter form is close: Soriano 5.10 ERA versus Lodolo 5.02, so the season gap may overstate today's edge.
    weak-pitcher fade ML #1180
    • Nick Lodolo clears every vulnerability marker: 5.04 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 6.42 xERA, and .379 xwOBA allowed.
    • Toronto's confirmed lineup versus the lefty clears the matchup gate: .319 xwOBA, .404 SLG, and .2152 whiff rate.
    • Toronto is 3-7 in its last 10 and 77-82 overall, so team-form support is weak.
    bully ball strategy
    • Soriano: 3.77 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 3.86 FIP; Lodolo: 5.04 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 5.77 FIP.
    • Confirmed lineups average 95 wRC+ for Toronto versus 63 for Cincinnati, a clear current-lineup strength edge.
    • Toronto's platoon split is not dominant: .290 xwOBA versus lefties versus Cincinnati's .308 versus righties.
    Drift
    • Power rating 63%: Toronto run differential −47 (−0.30/game) versus Cincinnati −159 (−1.00/game).
    • Movement favors Toronto: Pinnacle home price moved from roughly −132 open to −152 current; current direction is toward Toronto.
    • Most likely loss: Soriano suppresses Toronto while Reds convert Lodolo's command problems into early runs.
  2. Nick Lodolo under 4.5 strikeouts2 models agree
    +62%Won

    Taken at −162 on FanDuel

    2 modelsK-Zone Fade, Picks with pink pro reader
    Why 2 models like it
    K-Zone Fade
    • Lodolo's 2026 K/9 has fallen from 6.95 season-wide to 5.30 over his last three starts.
    • His last three starts produced 11 strikeouts across 18.67 innings, while the market still charges −162 for the under.
    • A 4.5 line leaves little room for error; five strikeouts loses despite the contact matchup.
    Picks with pink pro reader
    • Model estimates 66.8%: Poisson CDF from Lodolo's 3.8-K average across his last 10 starts.
    • Under 4.5 Ks landed in 6 of Lodolo's last 10 starts, meeting the 60% form threshold.
    • The 4.5 threshold is fragile: one concentrated strikeout inning can decide the prop.
  3. Toronto Blue Jays F5 winner (first 5 innings)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model F5 split: Toronto 51%, Cincinnati 31%, draw 18%; the three-way probabilities sum to 100%.
    • Starter-quality read favors Toronto: Soriano xwOBA against .321 vs Lodolo .379; L5 WHIP 1.13 vs 1.33.
    • Soriano's L5 ERA is 5.10 despite the 1.13 WHIP; sequencing or home-run variance can erase the quality edge.
  4. Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays first-five total over 5.5 (first 5 innings)
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 3 total runs are already on the board in the bottom of the 2nd inning.
    • Polymarket US anchors Toronto at 72.5% to win and full-game over 8.5 at 60.5%.
    • The 2026 MLB final-game sample averages 8.95 runs, with a 12-run 75th percentile.
    • Only three runs are needed for the over, but scoring can still stall across the next three innings.
  5. No 5th-inning draw
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Anchors fit a modest scoring game: Toronto ~59% to win and 7.5 total with over ~52%.
    • Current-season MLB data shows 1,287 draws in 2,381 fifth innings (54.1%); fitted draw probability is about 54%, so draw-NO is about 46%.
    • This is internal coherence only; no independent sharp book prices the fifth-inning winner market.
    • The gross gap is only about 3 percentage points before the venue fee; this is a thin, low-confidence edge.
  6. No 2nd-inning draw
    +138%Won

    Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Anchors imply Toronto near 59% to win; Pinnacle independently posts Toronto −152.
    • The 7.5-run total is near balanced, fitting a game center around 8.0 runs after MLB's right-skewed scoring calibration.
    • An approximately 8-run game gives a flat per-inning draw baseline near 50%; the NO side is priced at only 42¢.
    • Per-inning scoring is much noisier than the full-game distribution; the 8-point gap is approximate.
Show all 20 picks
  1. Toronto Blue Jays over 3.5 runs
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Toronto's posted lineup is 8 right-handed hitters and 1 lefty against confirmed left-handed starter Nick Lodolo.
    • Lodolo's current season line is 5.04 ERA, 6.42 xERA and .379 xwOBA allowed.
    • Cincinnati's bullpen enters with 11.33 innings and 179 pitches over three days, supporting Toronto's late-inning scoring path.
    • Toronto's current split versus left-handed pitching is only .290 xwOBA, a direct counter-signal.
  2. José Soriano over 5.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Pesto ChangeupUp 9% over 82 picks
    Why it likes it
    • comparable TTO3 PA supports depth, but the 2.47-point K drop, rising TTO3 xwOBA, and hook risk temper the over.
    • Adrian Johnson fit_z +1.74 is positive strike-stealing fit for Soriano, moving him toward a third turn/18+ outs.
    • None, fit_z is directional rather than an out-calibrated forecast; positive fit is not a guarantee of a sixth strikeout.
  3. Carlos Jorge under 0.5 RBIFavorite
    +22%Won

    Taken at −447 on DraftKings

    Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 9 of Carlos Jorge's last 10 games stayed below 0.5 RBI.
    • His .1429 average versus right-handed pitching is 41.5% below the .2442 league split.
    • José Soriano is a confirmed right-handed starter; Jorge is confirmed batting leadoff.
    • The 10-game sample is thin: Jorge has only 36 season plate appearances.
  4. Over 7.5 total
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model 53.5% vs Pinnacle devigged 50.9%; gap 2.6 points.
    • Nick Lodolo's confirmed 6.42 xERA creates the primary over pressure.
    • Rogers Centre weather is clear, 65°F, with 6-mph wind out to right field.
    • Combined team run differential is −206, a depressed baseline for this total.
  5. Toronto Blue Jays 7th-inning winnerLong shot
    +300%Won

    Taken at 25¢ on Polymarket US

    Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Venue references Toronto at 0.52 in the first-five winner and 0.72 in the full-game winner; the 7th-inning quote does not reflect that late-game direction.
    • Cincinnati's bullpen has 126 pitches across 8 appearances in three days versus Toronto's 83 pitches across 5 appearances.
    • The 7th-inning three-way board still makes the draw modal at 0.63; any tied or scoreless 7th loses.
  6. Game total runs over 7.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: 8.9 projected total runs; fair total 8.5; Over 7.5 win probability 65.8%; push probability 0% (model run at 5:41 PM CDT).
    • Nick Lodolo's current 6.42 xERA and .379 xwOBA allowed create a major Toronto scoring pathway.
    • Cincinnati's confirmed nine-man lineup faces José Soriano's 4.38 xERA, while both bullpens have logged meaningful three-day workloads.
    • Toronto's lineup owns only a .2903 xwOBA versus left-handed pitching, limiting the Lodolo-driven Over case.
  7. José Soriano strikeouts over 6
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • The 6+ NO rung beats Soriano NO on 4+ (19¢) and 5+ (31¢); higher-threshold protection is better than paying for the lower rungs.
    • Last four starts were 80, 90, 89, and 98 pitches; projected workload is 5.4 innings from the L3 pitch average.
    • Soriano's 8.62 season K/9 and two put-away pitches support a six-strikeout spike.
  8. José Soriano over 16.5 outs recorded
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −115 on DraftKings

    BelloUp 7% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2 of Soriano's last 3 starts cleared 16.5 outs; the three-start average is 18.33 outs.
    • Three-start workload is 18.33 IP, or 6.11 IP/start, with 14.1 pitches/IP.
    • Fastball velocity is stable: 96.47 mph over the last three starts versus a 96.63 mph season baseline (−0.16 mph).
    • The season baseline is only about 16.9 outs per start, so this is a narrow workload edge, not a mismatch.
  9. Cincinnati Reds over 7.5 total runs
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    Shawn’s Park & Weather Totals EngineUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Lodolo's 5.04 ERA / 6.42 xERA creates the primary pitching-upside path; Soriano's 3.77 ERA / 4.38 xERA is less suppressive than his surface line.
    • Cincinnati and Toronto hand-split xwOBAs are .308 and .290; the posted lineups still provide multiple above-average bats, including Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart.
    • Toronto's bullpen saw 83 pitches in three days; Cincinnati's bullpen saw 179, supporting a modest late-inning run-environment uplift.
    • The 6 mph wind is below the brief's 12-mph interaction threshold, and Soriano's 53.2% GB rate suppresses the wind-out mechanism.
  10. Game total under 7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX same-venue devigged under-rung gap is 7.07 points: under 7.5 at 49.50c versus under 7 at 42.43c.
    • The 2023, 25 all-game exact-7 rate may not equal this matchup's total-7 probability.
  11. Cincinnati Reds under 3.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −125 on FanDuel

    +EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Estimated true probability 61% versus 55.6% market break-even: +5.4 percentage points.
    • Cincinnati has scored 31 runs across its last 10 games (3.1 per game).
    • Reds versus right-handed pitching: .219 average, .380 slugging, .308 xwOBA across 4,141 PA.
    • The season-long Reds scoring rate is 4.12 runs per game, materially higher than the recent window.
  12. Charles McAdoo under 0.5 hits
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +138 on DraftKings

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Recency-weighted no-hit projection 56% versus 39.3% devig fair probability: +16.7 percentage points.
    • No-hit in 6 of his last 10 games and 3 of his last 5 with plate appearances: 60% each.
    • Confirmed batting first; no active IL listing, supporting stable opportunity and role.
    • Season no-hit rate is only 46.9% across 32 games with plate appearances, below the 55% preferred season baseline.
  13. First-inning runs: No
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Posted top-three xwOBA versus the opposing hand: Cincinnati about .357 weighted by PA; Toronto about .327.
    • Nick Lodolo and José Soriano first-inning BA are .197 and .189, with 2026 K rates of 23.2% and 26.8%.
    • Vladimir Guerrero Jr. owns a .379 xwOBA versus left-handers, and Lodolo has allowed 3 first-inning HR in 20 games.
  14. Game total over 7.5 runs
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle also has over 7.5 at −109; the sharp reference agrees with the ProphetX flow.
    • Reds relievers logged 179 pitches and 11.33 innings over three days versus Toronto's 83 pitches and 6.0 innings; Adrian Johnson's games average 10.23 runs.
    • The most likely loss is Soriano suppressing Cincinnati while Lodolo avoids a major mistake, leaving six runs or fewer.

Questions

Who won Reds vs. Blue Jays?

The Blue Jays won 6-5 on Friday, Sep 25, 2026.

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