Cavaliers vs. MagicFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalKia Center · Orlando
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 28 | 24 | 31 | 33 | 116 |
| ORL | 35 | 37 | 36 | 24 | 132 |
Top model pick, graded
WonOver 229.5 total points 51¢
Why Shot Clock likes it: Cleveland's 106.6 pace is 3.9 possessions above Orlando's 102.7; Cleveland is the likelier tempo setter.
Shot ClockUp 1% return this season · 238 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-3 on this game · −51% return
- Cleveland Cavaliers under 230 total points−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2025 team-rating baseline projects approximately 225.9 combined points, 4.1 below 230.
- Cleveland and Orlando averaged 102.8 and 103.7 possessions in 2025; no pace-based over adjustment is warranted.
- ProphetX under strengthened from +101 to -107; Polymarket under probability also rose roughly 9 points from its opening capture.
- Preseason has no completed 2026 sample; minutes and fourth-quarter lineups are unusually volatile.
- Game total under 229.5−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US
Coaches CornerDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Oct. 11 rematch totaled 224 points; Orlando scored only 105 in the 119-105 loss.
- Orlando's coach identified defensive-rotation, spacing, paint-entry and turnover problems for the immediate rematch.
- Cleveland's defense dictated the prior game, while Orlando's preseason pace is 102.7 possessions.
- Both teams' two-game preseason totals average 232.0 for Orlando and 230.5 for Cleveland.
- Over 229.5 total points+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Cleveland's 106.6 pace is 3.9 possessions above Orlando's 102.7; Cleveland is the likelier tempo setter.
- Current offense/defense blend: Cleveland offense 108.8 vs Orlando defense 115.6; Orlando offense 111.1 vs Cleveland defense 107.7.
- Raw probability sanity check: 0.505 is a fraction (50.5%), not cents; complementary Under midpoint is 0.495, so the two-way read is 50.5% Over / 49.5% Under.
- Only two preseason games inform each team's 2026 pace and efficiency; both pace_l10 deltas are 0.0.
- Cleveland Cavaliers to win−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Cleveland won the Oct. 11 meeting 119-105; same-game net ratings were +12.8 CLE and -13.1 ORL.
- Cleveland's projected starters logged 21.8, 26.7 minutes Sunday; local reporting expects them to play into the fourth tonight.
- Preseason minute limits and late scratches remain uncertain; there is no official preseason injury report.
Questions
Who won Cavaliers vs. Magic?
The Magic won 132–116 on Tuesday, Oct 13, 2026.