Pacers vs. ThunderFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalPaycom Center · Oklahoma City
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 33 | 28 | 23 | 16 | 12 | 112 |
| OKC | 25 | 34 | 26 | 15 | 14 | 114 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total under 228.5 51¢
Why Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner likes it: 229.6 combined prior-season baseline: Oklahoma City 226.0, Indiana 233.1 points per game.
Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 15% return this season · 84 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-2 on this game · −6% return
- Game total under 228.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 229.6 combined prior-season baseline: Oklahoma City 226.0, Indiana 233.1 points per game.
- OKC’s SGA, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren and Hartenstein carry unresolved rest/injury statuses.
- Indiana also has a current Haliburton ankle question, reducing expected primary creation if inactive.
- 2026 preseason has no completed-game sample; rotation and minutes volatility are extreme.
- Game over 230.5 total points−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection: 234.7 expected points versus the Kalshi 230.5 threshold, a roughly 4.2-point disagreement.
- OKC has the slightly faster recent pace: 106.7 possessions versus Indiana's 104.4; both pace_l10 deltas are 0.0.
- Efficiency read: Indiana 115.0 offense versus OKC 111.5 defense; OKC 108.0 offense versus Indiana 110.5 defense.
- Preseason samples are tiny: Indiana has two games and OKC three, so the pace and efficiency estimates are noisy.
- Game over 228.5 total points−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi
Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Indiana pace is 104.4 and Oklahoma City pace is 106.7; both pace_l10_delta values are 0.0, so OKC's slightly faster baseline modestly dictates tempo, not schedule.
- At 105.55 expected possessions, the pace-times-efficiency projection is 234.8 points, 6.3 above the same-rung 228.5 market threshold.
- Tyrese Haliburton remains questionable despite full practice, and T.J. McConnell is also questionable; their actual roles could materially change Indiana's efficiency.
- Indiana Pacers +8.5+79%Won
Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 56¢ takeable price; my cover estimate is 60% despite the preseason uncertainty.
- Oklahoma City’s latest injury feed says Chet Holmgren and Jaylin Williams are ruled out.
- Indiana’s latest five-game form is -4.6 per game versus Oklahoma City’s -5.6; the market gives OKC 8.5 points.
- Haliburton remains officially questionable, and his absence would materially weaken Indiana’s offense.
Questions
Who won Pacers vs. Thunder?
The Thunder won 114–112 on Tuesday, Oct 13, 2026.