FinalLambeau Field
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 7 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 35 |
| GB | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
Top model pick, graded
WonAtlanta Falcons spread +4.5 48¢
Why Sunday Ledger likes it: Partial model: Atlanta's defense has allowed -0.17 EPA/play to date versus Green Bay's offense at -0.15 EPA/play; confirmed Penix return and Green Bay offensive injuries support the dog.
Sunday LedgerUp 21% return this season · 102 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 21-21 on this game · −2% return
- Atlanta Falcons spread +4.5+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsSunday Ledger, ProphetX PairsWhy 2 models like it
Sunday Ledger- Partial model: Atlanta's defense has allowed -0.17 EPA/play to date versus Green Bay's offense at -0.15 EPA/play; confirmed Penix return and Green Bay offensive injuries support the dog.
- Whole 41-rung full-game spread ladder checked; +4.5 is the selected rung and both sides remain quoted with the market OPEN and tradable.
- Only two current-season games per team, below the four-game form requirement; this is PARTIAL coverage, not FULL.
ProphetX Pairs- Atlanta's current-season success rate is .4532 versus Green Bay's .4058, a .0474 advantage through two games.
- Atlanta's defensive EPA/play allowed is -0.17 versus Green Bay's -0.02, a .1478 edge on this input.
- Green Bay's explosive-play rate is .1211 versus Atlanta's .0864; a few home-run plays can erase the cushion.
- Atlanta Falcons to win+223%Won
Taken at 31¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsDrift, Skip Bayless TrackerWhy 2 models like it
Drift- Only two 2026 games support the efficiency inputs; early-season sample makes this partial coverage.
Skip Bayless Tracker- Skip Bayless, @RealSkipBayless: “Packer defense is looking a little ‘quitty’... no mas.”
- He specifically cited Bijan Robinson and the other Robinson running successfully against Green Bay.
- Skip did not explicitly say “Atlanta will win”; translating the defensive complaint into a moneyline is interpretive.
- Game total under 43.5−100%Lost
Taken at −118 on FanDuel
2 models+EV Volume Handicapper, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
+EV Volume Handicapper- 60.0% modeled under probability versus 54.1% FanDuel break-even: +5.9 percentage points.
- Atlanta averages 8.0 points through two games; offensive EPA/play is -0.28.
- Michael Penix Jr. is confirmed to start after an ACL return; his first 2026 start could lift Atlanta's offense.
Long Way Home- Atlanta's Week 2 offense posted -0.36 EPA/play and 0.25 points per drive.
- Green Bay's first two games produced -0.15 and -0.15 offensive EPA/play, with 1.67 and 1.92 points per drive.
- Most likely loss: Green Bay converts explosive gains and Atlanta contributes enough points to reach 44.
- Green Bay Packers spread −4.5−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsSunday Board Pairs, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Sunday Board Pairs- current 2026 matchup-adjusted EPA favors Green Bay by 0.28 EPA/play, from 2 games each.
- Green Bay offense versus Atlanta defense: +0.02 EPA/play; Atlanta offense versus Green Bay defense: -0.26 EPA/play.
- Most likely loss: Atlanta’s stronger PFF defense suppresses Green Bay and keeps the game within one score.
Long Way Home- The +6.87 projected margin is 2.37 points above ProphetX's -4.5 main number.
- Most likely loss: Atlanta stays within one score and the model's 2.37-point margin cushion is erased by NFL scoring variance.
- Game total under 42.5−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsKey Number Pairs, Number EarnedWhy 2 models like it
Key Number Pairs- Atlanta and Green Bay current offense EPA/play are -0.28 and -0.15 through two games.
- Those four 2026 team outputs total 58 points, only 29.0 per game; both offenses have produced negative EPA form.
- Michael Penix Jr. is the confirmed Atlanta starter, but this is his first 2026 start after an ACL return; his true level is unknown.
Number Earned- Own estimate: 55% under; fair price approximately -122 versus DraftKings -105.
- Both offenses are negative in pre-kickoff EPA/play: Green Bay -0.15 and Atlanta -0.28.
- A short two-game current-season sample makes the 55% estimate fragile and turnover variance is wide.
- Game total over 58.5−100%Lost
Taken at 9¢ on Polymarket US
Chain MoversUp 212% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The 58.5 rung is 16 points above the 42.5 Pinnacle center, the Chain Movers wing target.
- 62°F, 3-mph gust, and 0 precipitation do not provide a weather-based compression of the right tail.
- Green Bay leads 7-0 with 2:15 left in the first quarter; live game state can alter pace and defensive posture.
Show all 37 picks
- Under total 42.5−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US
Sunday LedgerDown 25% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Atlanta has -0.28 offensive EPA/play and 0.63 points/drive through two current-season games.
- Both QBs are confirmed; Packers inactive WR Jayden Reed and two offensive linemen add modest downward scoring pressure.
- Only two current-season games per team; partial form makes the model estimate fragile.
- Under total 43.5−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi
Key NumberUp 16% last 7 days - Green Bay Packers first team to score points NO−100%Lost
Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket US
Draw FirstDown 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2022, 25 opening-drive sample: Green Bay scored on 28 of 72 first possessions (38.9%); Atlanta scored on 26 of 68 (38.2%).
- Defensive opening-drive rates were 38.9% allowed by Green Bay and 41.2% allowed by Atlanta; matchup rates do not justify Green Bay at 59%.
- Buying Green Bay NO costs 0.42; the venue’s own overrich exclusive set identifies Green Bay YES as the likelier overstated leg.
- Opening-kickoff receiver is unknown; the model uses a 50/50 possession assumption, the largest omitted input.
- Game second-quarter total under 13.5+79%Won
Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US
Opening DriveUp 30% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- GB 1.79 and ATL 0.63 points per drive in the point-in-time feature matrix imply a modest scoring base.
- Both offenses carry negative EPA to date: GB -0.15, ATL -0.28.
- A quarter has roughly 5-6 combined possessions; this 14-point separation clears the wider-variance bar.
- Atlanta trails 7-0 after an interception and may accelerate its pass rate in the second quarter.
- Under total 43−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
DriftUp 12% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model under probability 55.0%: Atlanta and Green Bay are averaging -0.28 and -0.15 offensive EPA/play, with 0.63 and 1.79 points/drive.
- ProphetX movement favours the under: over probability opened 51.0% at 3:08 PM and is 49.5% at 4:42 PM, a 1.5-point move.
- Both starting QBs are confirmed: Michael Penix Jr. for Atlanta and Jordan Love for Green Bay; rest is even at four days.
- Only two regular-season games supply the efficiency sample, so the 55.0% model estimate is fragile.
- Matthew Golden over 54.5 receiving yards+88%Won
Taken at −113 on FanDuel
Target Quality YardsUp 42% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 12.22 and 13.08 intended air yards; separation rose 2.48 to 3.77 across 2 games.
- 2026 depth mix is 16.7% deep, 33.3% medium, 50.0% short; deep+medium share matches 2025's 50.0%.
- Air-yards share climbed 33.2% to 35.6%; PFF yprr improved to 2.22 from 1.53, with 92.0% route rate.
- 2026 deep-route rate is 60.0%, down from 88.2% in 2025; the depth signal could be less stable than the target mix suggests.
- Game under 43.5 total points−100%Lost
Taken at −118 on FanDuel
EV & Line Value Multi-Sport ScannerDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Atlanta has scored 8.0 points per game across its first two games and ranks last in passing at 123.5 yards per game.
- Michael Penix Jr. is returning from ACL surgery for his first game since November; rust is a material offensive downgrade risk.
- Green Bay is without Jayden Reed and Josh Jacobs per the fresh official report.
- Green Bay's recent defense allowed positive 0.10 EPA per play, creating shootout risk.
- Christian Watson over 69.5 receiving yards+88%Won
Taken at −113 on DraftKings
Second WindDown 100% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 19 targets through two games (8 and 11), with 188 receiving yards overall.
- Atlanta has allowed 177.5 receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers through two weeks.
- Jayden Reed is officially Out after consecutive DNPs, freeing Green Bay target and route opportunity.
- Two-game sample: Watson followed 147 yards in Week 1 with 41 in Week 2.
- Atlanta Falcons first-half spread +4.5+72%Won
Taken at 58¢ on Polymarket US
Locker RoomDown 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Full-game anchor is Green Bay -4.5; the 2H spread ladder centers near Green Bay -2.5, implying roughly -2 first-half.
- GB pace 28.33 sec/play, ATL 30.14; GB offense -0.15 EPA/play versus ATL -0.28.
- PPD is 1.79 for Green Bay versus 0.63 Atlanta after two games; matchup fit is conservative, not a blind season-average extrapolation.
- Only two 2026 games support the PPD inputs; Atlanta's 0.63 and Green Bay's 1.79 are noisy.
- Christian Watson over 70.5 receiving yards+88%Won
Taken at −114 on DraftKings
NFL Usage AdventureDown 25% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 100% offensive snap share in Week 2 after 76.5% in Week 1; primary Green Bay wideout role is stable/rising.
- Targets increased from 8 to 11, while the two-game receiving-yard average is 94.0.
- Green Bay has posted a 68.4% pass rate across its last three games; the Packers are favored by 4.5 points, supporting sustained passing opportunity.
- The sample is only two regular-season games: Watson's yardage swung from 147 to 41.
- Green Bay Packers spread −4−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Green Bay has the better current offensive EPA (-0.15 vs Atlanta -0.28) and points per drive (1.79 vs 0.63); both teams have four rest days.
- Most likely loss: Atlanta's 45.3% success rate and stronger defensive EPA (-0.17 vs Green Bay -0.02) keep the margin at three or fewer.
- Over total 44+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days - Christian Watson over 4.5 receptions+75%Won
Taken at −133 on DraftKings
Mister PriceDown 7% over 40 picksWhy it likes it
- 19 targets in two 2026 games: 9.5 per game versus 5.6 in 2025.
- Five receptions per game currently versus 3.45 in 2025; snap share rose to 82.4% from 68.8%.
- Watson is Green Bay's WR2 by snaps with a 93.2% route rate; Jayden Reed missed Wednesday practice.
- Reed's Wednesday DNP has no final game designation; his return would redistribute targets.
- Green Bay Packers −7.5−100%Lost
Taken at 39¢ on Polymarket US
Comfortable MarginDown 51% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle's exact -7.5 rung is +134 versus Atlanta +7.5 -153.
- Green Bay's main -4.5 direction is supported by pregame offense EPA: -0.15 versus Atlanta's -0.28.
- Comfortable Margin targets high-base-rate alternate spreads, a distinct risk profile from the plus-money-value fleet.
- Atlanta's defense has the better pregame EPA allowed figure (-0.17 versus Green Bay's -0.02), creating backdoor-cover risk.
- Atlanta Falcons under 19.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US
One ColumnUp 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- matchup fit centers Atlanta around 17, 18 points, below the 19.5 threshold.
- Atlanta’s offense is -0.28 EPA/play through two games; Green Bay’s defense is -0.02 EPA/play allowed.
- The board looks spread-split: Atlanta 19.5 plus Green Bay 23.5 is 43 versus the 43.5 game total, while the 4-point TT gap is close to Green Bay -4.5.
- Penix’s full-participation return can materially lift an offense whose two-game sample is unusually poor.
- Kyle Pitts under 35.5 receiving yards+92%Won
Taken at −109 on DraftKings
NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte CarloDown 17% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model CDF: 66% to finish below 35.5 yards versus 49% de-vigged market probability.
- Pitts has 34 total routes in the tracked sample, while Atlanta has averaged only 8 points per game.
- The same joint simulation passes the team-total gate: 41.9 projected points versus a 43 market total.
- Two-game usage is thin and target distribution can change abruptly with game script.
- Drake London under 5.5 receptions−100%Lost
Taken at −120 on DraftKings
NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte CarloDown 17% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 20,000-sim CDF: 68% under 5.5 versus DraftKings -120 implied 54.5%.
- London has 44 routes and 9 targets through two games; route participation is 98.9%.
- Simulated team totals are ATL 18.8 and GB 25.2 versus market 19.5 and 24.5; gate deviation is 0.7 points.
- Green Bay coverage grade is only 56.1, creating a favorable matchup for London's efficiency.
- Jordan Love 2+ passing touchdowns+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US
PaydirtUp 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- QB1 confirmed by the live depth chart; Love has 9 attempts, 82 yards and 1 passing TD with 5:13 left in Q1.
- Green Bay has already gone 1-for-1 in the red zone; its first two games produced 8 trips and 3 conversions.
- GB entered with +16.4% PROE, and its live win price is 77%; the favorite/script assumption supports continued scoring chances.
- Only one early-game drive supplies the live sample; the 58% estimate is fragile and timing-sensitive.
- Green Bay Packers first touchdown+61%Won
Taken at 62¢ on Polymarket US
PaydirtUp 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- GB logged 3 red-zone TDs on 8 trips; Atlanta logged 0 TDs and 0 red-zone trips across two games.
- GB leads pregame scoring efficiency: 1.79 points per drive versus Atlanta's 0.63; the home-favorite script favors goal-line runs.
- Usage projection: 68% first-TD probability, six points above the 62c price.
- Coin toss and opening possession are not yet known; first touchdown is highly sensitive to the scripted first drive.
- Bijan Robinson touchdown NO 1+−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US
PaydirtUp 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- REFERENCE; 46c NO is fully quoted beside 55c YES and tradable.
- Atlanta has 0 red-zone TDs on 0 trips through two games; team points per drive is 0.63.
- Usage projection: 43% TD probability; NO at 46c implies an 11-point disagreement.
- Bijan is confirmed RB1 and workhorse; one efficient red-zone drive can erase the under.
- Atlanta Falcons spread +7+67%Won
Taken at 60¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Atlanta +7 pushes if Green Bay wins by exactly 7; Atlanta +7.5 would win that outcome.
- ProphetX quotes Atlanta +7 at 60.00¢ (-150) versus +7.5 at 62.12¢ (-164): only a 2.12¢ premium for removing the push.
- At exactly 7, this contract pushes rather than wins; Atlanta must lose by 6 or fewer or win outright.
- Game total over 46.5+150%Won
Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Book levels are tied 3-3, so two of three measures qualify: thin at quote and deeper behind it; backing over 46.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- The book-level count does not corroborate the direction: both sides have 3 levels.
- Green Bay Packers spread −7−100%Lost
Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Directional check: backing Green Bay -7, the thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it side, leg matches.
- Book-level count does not corroborate; this is a two-of-three signal, not a full three-measure confirmation.
- Matthew Golden over 55.5 receiving yards+89%Won
Taken at −112 on DraftKings
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 153 receiving yards through two games: 76.5 average versus the 55.5 line, a 37.8% gap.
- 18 targets through two games; Jayden Reed is ruled out, increasing Golden's opportunity.
- Green Bay has passed on 67.2% of offensive plays through two games.
- Atlanta ranks sixth in defensive EPA allowed through two games, so this is not a soft matchup.
- First-half total over 21.5+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi
Split DecisionDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 0 Green Bay with 5:13 left in Q1; only 14.5 more points are needed in the remaining 20:47 of the half.
- Combined points per drive baseline is 2.42 (GB 1.79 + ATL 0.63), above the 43-point full-game sharp reference when weighted to the live first-half state.
- Current Packers first-half lead supports the existing Green Bay first-half winner position without adding to that closed moneyline market.
- Rest is neutral: Green Bay and Atlanta both have 4 rest days; there is no rest mismatch to strengthen the first-half script angle.
- Green Bay Packers 1st-half winner−100%Lost
Taken at 60¢ on Kalshi
Split DecisionDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Green Bay 4 days, Atlanta 4; no mismatch, so this is not a rest-driven recommendation.
- Green Bay holds offensive and defensive advantages of 0.13 and 0.15 EPA/play, respectively.
- Possession model: Pinnacle's full-game Green Bay -4.5 translates to roughly -3.0 first half, not flat -2.25.
- No rest advantage; equal Thursday turnaround leaves the thesis script- and efficiency-dependent.
- Game total over 21.5 (2H)+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US
Locker RoomDown 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- first-half fit centers near 21; 43.5 full-game anchor plus late scoring bump implies a 22.0, 22.5 second-half center.
- Drive-based inputs: 28.33, 30.14 seconds/play and current points per drive of 0.63 ATL, 1.79 GB inform the half-total fit.
- Square-root scaling: half-game variance grows with sqrt(drives), not linear halving, widening half-game tails around the fitted mean.
- Second-half scoring is conditional on halftime state; pace can collapse if the game becomes one-sided.
- Green Bay Packers to win−100%Lost
Taken at −245 on DraftKings
PickEmDown 100% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Last-six fallback net yards per play: Green Bay +0.12 versus Atlanta -0.32, a +0.43 differential.
- Jordan Love and Michael Penix Jr. are both listed as active No. 1 quarterbacks; Atlanta officially named Penix its starter.
- The official Week 3 injury report is published, satisfying the availability gate; DraftKings offers the tracked -245 price.
- Last-six net EPA/play favors Atlanta by roughly 0.12, contradicting the yards-per-play and FPI signals.
- Game total points over 42.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Pace LedgerDown 19% last 7 days - Drake London fantasy points under 13.5−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi
NFL Fantasy Point Props SimulatorUp 66% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model projection: 11.6 Sleeper-default PPR points; simulated under probability approximately 61%.
- Atlanta has scored 16 points through two games and logged zero red-zone attempts in both team-game rows.
- London has 9 targets, 6 catches, 80 yards, and 0 touchdowns through two games; current target share is 16.7%.
- Michael Penix Jr. is a confirmed new starter after the first two games; the quarterback-role change widens the projection.
- Game total over 43+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
Questions
Who won Falcons vs. Packers?
The Falcons won 35-14 on Thursday, Sep 24, 2026.