Eagles vs. CommandersPrediction, picks & odds

Sun, Nov 1Northwest Stadium

Eagles2–5

8:20PMET

Commanders1–4–1

Spread: WAS −5.5
Total: 40.5
Moneyline: PHI +225

Top model pick

Medium conviction

Philadelphia Eagles exact margin 1-6 11¢

Why Exact Change likes it: Tier 1: 1,282 of 2,875 historical games (44.6%) landed on margins 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, or 14.

Exact ChangeUp 90% return this season · 91 picksLongshots

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Picks

43 picks from 30 models

Washington Commanders to winFavorite4 models agree
1.43x70¢
Taken at 70¢ on ProphetX
+43% profit if it wins
4 modelsSunday Board Pairs, high-confidence main markets +2
Why 4 models like it
Sunday Board Pairs
- Seven-game samples: Washington offense -0.0614 EPA/play versus Philadelphia -0.1287; Washington has 13 rest days versus Philadelphia's 6.
- Jalen Hurts is on injured reserve; Tanner McKee is the expected Philadelphia QB1, while Jayden Daniels is Washington's expected QB1.
- Most likely loss: Philadelphia's defense is better by to-date EPA allowed (+0.0368 versus Washington +0.0985) and can keep this close.
high-confidence main markets
- 74% independent win estimate; fair price -285 versus FanDuel -245.
- Jayden Daniels is confirmed for Washington; Jalen Hurts is out and Tanner McKee is confirmed for Philadelphia.
- Philadelphia's season defensive EPA allowed is better: 0.062 versus Washington's 0.100.
+EV Volume Handicapper
- Jalen Hurts is listed Out; Tanner McKee is the expected Philadelphia starter.
- Washington has a 13-to-6 rest-day edge and better season offense EPA/play (-0.0577 vs -0.1189).
- Conservative edge is only 5.39 points, so the qualification is close.
Brewing NFL Ml
- Jayden Daniels is confirmed active; his 2026 PFF passing grade is 72.2 with 0 interceptions on 116 attempts.
- Tanner McKee is confirmed active but grades lower at 65.9, with -1.92 average CPOE across his two charted starts.
- Washington's defense is worse by EPA allowed: +0.100 versus Philadelphia's +0.062, so the matchup is not one-sided by team efficiency.
Total points under 40.52 models agree
2.00x50¢
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
+100% profit if it wins
2 modelsSunday Board Pairs, Long Way Home
Why 2 models like it
Sunday Board Pairs
- Six/seven-game coverage: Philadelphia offense is -0.1189 EPA/play and Washington is -0.0577; both offenses are below zero.
- Pace is slow-to-moderate at 29.04 seconds/play for Philadelphia and 29.19 for Washington; PROE is near neutral at +0.0116 and -0.0105.
- Most likely loss: Washington's 13 rest days and Philadelphia/Washington defensive EPA allowed of +0.0623/+0.0999 produce efficient drives.
Long Way Home
- SHARP REFERENCE (Pinnacle under -109 at 40.5).
- Philadelphia averages 16.0 road points; Washington averages 24.3 home points, a 40.3 baseline before Philadelphia’s key absences.
- Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith, and Lane Johnson are listed out, and those absences are already partly reflected in the total.
Antonio Williams over 3.5 receptions2 models agree
2.26x44¢
Taken at +126 on DraftKings
+126% profit if it wins
2 modelsSecond Wind, Snap Share
Why 2 models like it
Second Wind
- Last two games: 3/3 and 3/4 catches/targets, with 29 and 37 route snaps.
- Official Commanders report says Terry McLaurin is out for the season and Williams should receive more targets.
- Treylon Burks is questionable without a current practice designation; playing would increase target competition.
Snap Share
- FanDuel +134 is the exact 3.5-reception price; Antonio is confirmed active and starting as Washington's WR1.
- Last three recorded games: 68.8%/33, 67.7%/29, and 67.2%/37 snap share/routes; season role is 54.6% snaps and 149 routes over six games.
- Treylon Burks is listed questionable despite a confirmed lineup status, and Burks, Stefon Diggs, and Chig Okonkwo compete for targets.
Philadelphia Eagles exact margin 1-6Long shot
9.09x11¢
Taken at 11¢ on Polymarket US
+809% profit if it wins
Exact ChangeUp 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Tier 1: 1,282 of 2,875 historical games (44.6%) landed on margins 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, or 14.
- Pinnacle centers Washington at -6; its devigged home-cover probability is 48.4%.
- The bucket contains key numbers 3, 4, and 6, receiving concentrated scoring-mass lift that generic smoothing can miss.
- Any tie, Washington win, or Philadelphia win by 7+ loses; exact-margin outcomes remain highly dispersed.
Washington Commanders spread −6.5
2.13x47¢
Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US
+113% profit if it wins
Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- The matched full-game Polymarket US contract costs 46.5¢, identical to the current global mark; Washington also has a 13-to-6 rest advantage.
- The exact-NFL recent-week scoring read remained pending, so deterioration versus the broader record cannot be ruled out.
Philadelphia Eagles over spread +10.5Favorite
1.47x68¢
Taken at 68¢ on Polymarket US
+47% profit if it wins
Sunday LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Both current teams clear four games; Tanner McKee and Jayden Daniels are the latest QB1 depth-chart entries, and the weather read is light wind with 0% rain.
- Most likely loss: Washington wins by 11 or more, with Philadelphia's backup-QB and offensive-line uncertainty driving separation.

Show all 38 picks

Philadelphia Eagles spread +1.5Long shot
3.45x29¢
Taken at 29¢ on Kalshi
+245% profit if it wins
Key NumberUp 8% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Pinnacle main spread is Washington -5.5 at -105 / Philadelphia +5.5 at -105; devigged probability is 50.0%. Main total is 40.5, Over -103 / Under -109.
- Most likely loss: Washington wins, or Philadelphia wins by exactly one point; this 1.5-point rung has no push protection.
Under 38.5 total
2.27x44¢
Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi
+127% profit if it wins
Key NumberUp 8% last 7 days
Washington Commanders −5.5
2.00x50¢
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
+100% profit if it wins
DriftUp 11% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Power rating 53.0% cover probability: Washington leads current-season offense EPA/play 0.0118 to Philadelphia -0.1133; success 43.2% to 41.8%.
- Washington also leads explosive rate 12.1% to 10.7% and points per drive 1.987 to 1.808.
- Confirmed starters are Jayden Daniels versus Tanner McKee; Philadelphia is also without Jalen Hurts and DeVonta Smith.
- The broader line moved from Washington -6 to -5.5, a slight move against Washington that may reflect late information.
Game total over 19.5 in the second half
1.89x53¢
Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US
+89% profit if it wins
Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- full-game 40.5 versus 1H 19.5 plus 2H 19.5 leaves a 1.5-point shortfall; the 2H number is the mispriced leg because late-game scoring normally supplies that bump.
- Square-root scaling: half-game variance falls with the square root of drives, not a linear half; that supports a wider 2H scoring tail than mechanical halving implies.
- Current-season points per drive are 1.78 Philadelphia and 1.86 Washington, with nearly identical pace proxies of 29.04 and 29.19 seconds per play.
- Second-half scoring is conditioned on halftime score, turnovers, injuries, and pace changes; the pregame model cannot capture those state effects.
Game under 20.5 first-half total
1.89x53¢
Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US
+89% profit if it wins
Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Market 1H total is 20.5; fitted first-half expectation is below that after pace and points-per-drive inputs.
- Philadelphia averages 1.78 points per drive and Washington 1.86; both offenses are negative in current-season EPA/play.
- Both half totals are posted at 20.5 while the full-game anchor is 40.5; the expected late-game scoring bump makes the first half the lower side.
- The full-game total is only 0.5 below the two half lines' combined 41.0, so the arithmetic edge is modest after fees.
Dallas Goedert under 45.5 receiving yards
1.88x53¢
Taken at −113 on FanDuel
+88% profit if it wins
Target Quality YardsUp 42% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- PFF REGPO, 5 games: 26 of 29 depth-classified targets were short or behind the line; depth-derived aDOT proxy is approximately 5.4 yards.
- NGS REG, last 4 qualifying rows: intended air yards averaged 6.64 and separation 2.94 yards; separation fell from 3.21 to 2.44 in the latest row.
- Jalen Hurts is out on the 4:08pm ESPN game-day feed; Philadelphia's replacement-quarterback uncertainty suppresses downfield target quality.
- The game-specific TE coverage assignment is unresolved; historical Washington coverage includes Sonny Styles (72.7) and Jeremy Reaves (71.9), so I cap the stake.
Dallas Goedert over 4.5 receptions
1.68x60¢
Taken at −148 on FanDuel
+68% profit if it wins
NFL Usage AdventureDown 22% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Goedert’s snap share was 69.4%, 81.3%, and 72.7% over the last three games; he is confirmed starting.
- He recorded 6, 6, and 5 receptions on 9, 8, and 7 targets; every recent game clears 4.5.
- The 4.5-reception line is 79% of his recent 5.7-reception average.
- McKee’s lower-quality quarterback play could reduce catchable targets and Philadelphia’s efficiency.
Chig Okonkwo over 32.5 receiving yards
1.88x53¢
Taken at −113 on FanDuel
+88% profit if it wins
NFL Usage AdventureDown 22% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Snap share rose 57.8% → 71.0% → 76.1% across Weeks 4-6; routes reached 43.
- 129 receiving yards on 13 targets over the last two games; line is only 32.5 yards.
- Terry McLaurin is on IR and John Bates is questionable, concentrating Washington routes.
- Chig’s season-long role is not a true workhorse; coverage or target redistribution can erase the edge.
Washington Commanders spread −7.5
2.44x41¢
Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX
+144% profit if it wins
ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days
Dallas Goedert over 45.5 receiving yards
1.89x53¢
Taken at −112 on DraftKings
+89% profit if it wins
NFL Regression RadarDown 59% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Eight targets per game over the last three, but only 49.0 receiving yards per game.
- 58.2 projection is 27.9% above the 45.5-yard market line; the number is back at 45.5 after briefly dipping to 44.5.
- Tanner McKee is a confirmed replacement starter, adding quarterback uncertainty despite two recent starts.
Washington Commanders under 23.5 total points
1.89x53¢
Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US
+89% profit if it wins
One ColumnUp 27% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- PROJECTION; VENUE SELF-REFERENCE: 23.5 is almost exactly the spread-split estimate from 40.5 total and Washington -6.
- Washington offense is -0.061 EPA/play, 1.86 points per drive, and averages 22.0 points through six games.
- Philadelphia defense is materially better by EPA than Washington's: +0.037 versus +0.099 allowed per play.
- Philadelphia has allowed 25.0 points per game, and Washington has already produced 33 and 27 in home games.
Philadelphia Eagles under 16.5 total points
2.08x48¢
Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US
+108% profit if it wins
One ColumnUp 27% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- PROJECTION; VENUE SELF-REFERENCE: 16.5 is near a spread-split estimate from 40.5 total and Washington -6.
- Philadelphia offense is -0.129 EPA/play with 1.78 points per drive through Oct. 26.
- Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Lane Johnson are listed out; the replacement-quarterback offense is the key downgrade.
- Washington defense is weak at +0.099 EPA allowed per play and has allowed 28.7 points per game.
Jayden Daniels over 18.1 fantasy points
2.08x48¢
Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi
+108% profit if it wins
NFL Fantasy Point Props SimulatorUp 44% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 22.1-point simulation mean versus Kalshi's 18.1 threshold.
- Philadelphia ranks 24th in opponent EPA per play allowed; quarterbacks average 19.2 PPR points against them.
- Daniels is active with full Friday participation; Washington's receiving injuries increase quarterback rushing and scramble responsibility.
- Washington's offense ranks 23rd in EPA per play and only 1.86 points per drive.
Washington Commanders winning margin 7 to 14Long shot
3.85x26¢
Taken at 26¢ on Kalshi
+285% profit if it wins
NFL EPA Margin SharpDown 59% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- EPA matchup blend projects Washington +8.5, 3.0 points above the -5.5 market spread.
- Washington's last-five matchup EPA edge is about +0.143 per play; season matchup edge is about +0.099.
- Washington has 13 days of rest versus Philadelphia's 6, and Jalen Hurts is officially out.
- Spread drifted from Washington -6 to -5.5, a half-point move against this thesis.
Tanner McKee over 205.5 passing yards
1.83x55¢
Taken at −120 on Fliff
+83% profit if it wins
NFL Sharp EdgeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- McKee cleared 205 yards in both starts: 211 and 215 on 80 total attempts.
- His 65.9 PFF passing grade and 73.6% accuracy support a repeatable baseline above this number.
- Philadelphia's recent pass rates were 65.3% and 79.7%, while calm weather removes a major passing penalty.
- Two-game starter sample is thin, so the 213-yard average may overstate his true level.
Philadelphia Eagles under 16.5 team points
2.02x50¢
Taken at +102 on FanDuel
+102% profit if it wins
NFL HunterV2Down 3% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Model simulation makes Philadelphia's team-total mean 16.0 points and the under probability 58%.
- Philadelphia averages 18.1 points per game, while its last-five offense EPA/play is -0.1874.
- Tanner McKee is confirmed at quarterback; Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith, Dontayvion Wicks, and Lane Johnson are out.
- Washington's last-five defense allowed 28.67 points per game and posted +0.1113 EPA allowed/play, a substantial matchup risk.
Rachaad White 1+ touchdown
2.38x42¢
Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket US
+138% profit if it wins
PaydirtUp 14% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Current game-day depth chart makes White the expected RB1; Jacory Croskey-Merritt is on IR, with Ekeler and McNichols behind him.
- Washington averaged 2.7 red-zone possessions across its last six; Philadelphia opponents converted 19 of 22 recent red-zone trips (86%).
- Washington has the modest pregame offensive-EPA edge (-0.0614 home vs -0.1287 away), supporting the ahead-and-run goal-line script assumption.
- White is expected, not confirmed; inactives have not posted, and an older ESPN injury entry listed him Out.
Philadelphia Eagles +5
2.04x49¢
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
+104% profit if it wins
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Book_levels: Eagles 3 versus Commanders 3; thin availability plus deep depth clear two measures with meaningful raw stake.
- Directional check: backing Philadelphia Eagles +5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- Book-level count ties 3-3, so the third measure is neutral.
Philadelphia Eagles to winLong shot
3.33x30¢
Taken at 30¢ on ProphetX
+233% profit if it wins
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Book_levels: Eagles 3 versus Commanders 3; availability plus depth provide two-of-three support, with substantial raw stake.
- Directional check: backing Philadelphia Eagles, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- Book-level count ties 3-3, so it does not independently corroborate the read.
Jayden Daniels over 36.5 rushing yards
1.73x58¢
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
+73% profit if it wins
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 53.3 rushing yards per game across Daniels' last four, 45.9% above the 36.5 line.
- His last two rushing outputs average 56.5 yards, 54.8% above the projection.
- Philadelphia's +0.062 defensive EPA/play ranks 19th, a below-average matchup for containing mobile quarterbacks.
- Four-game sample is small and unusually volatile: 10, 31, 69, and 103 rushing yards.
Tanner McKee over 33.5 pass attempts
1.73x58¢
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
+73% profit if it wins
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 40.0 attempts per start across McKee's two 2026 starts, 19.4% above 33.5.
- Washington's +0.100 defensive EPA/play ranks last in the 32-team current-season board.
- Confirmed starting QB; Philadelphia's DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks are out, concentrating the offense.
- Only two starts create a thin recent-form sample.
Game total under 55.5Favorite
1.15x87¢
Taken at 87¢ on Polymarket US
+15% profit if it wins
Chain MoversUp 177% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Expected scoring is about 38 points from roughly 10.5 PHI and 11.4 WSH drives, with a rough total SD near 14; model Under 55.5 is 90%.
- Philadelphia's season points per drive is 1.78 but its last-five rate is 1.49; expected QB Tanner McKee plus Hurts, DeVonta Smith and Lane Johnson out compresses the right tail.
- PHI and WSH starters are expected, not confirmed; late inactives or a quarterback change could materially alter the distribution.
Game total under 40.5
2.00x50¢
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
+100% profit if it wins
ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Philadelphia's offense is -0.1189 EPA/play and Washington's is -0.0577, both negative.
- Confirmed QBs are Jayden Daniels and Tanner McKee; Jalen Hurts and DeVonta Smith are out for Philadelphia.
- Washington's defense allows +0.0999 EPA/play versus Philadelphia's +0.0623, creating a path to efficient home scoring.
Washington Commanders spread −5.5
1.96x51¢
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
+96% profit if it wins
ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Washington has 13 rest days versus Philadelphia's 6, a meaningful scheduling edge before a Sunday night game.
- Washington's current-season offensive EPA/play is -0.0614 versus Philadelphia's -0.1287; recent form also favors Washington (-7.6 versus -10.8 average margin).
- Jayden Daniels is the expected Washington starter with full practice and no current Out/Doubtful designation; Philadelphia is expected to start backup Tanner McKee with Jalen Hurts on IR.
- Washington's defense is weaker by EPA/play allowed (+0.0985 versus Philadelphia +0.0368), which can keep the Eagles within the number.
Makai Lemon over 4.5 receptions
1.78x56¢
Taken at −128 on FanDuel
+78% profit if it wins
Snap ShareDown 16% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- FanDuel -128 is the exact 4.5-reception price; Makai is confirmed active and starting.
- Weeks 5-7 role: 80.6%/41, 81.3%/47, and 90.9%/37 snap share/routes; season WR1 with 74.9% snaps and 246 routes.
- DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks are officially out; they carried 86.1%/146 and 78.5%/195 season snap-share/routes, respectively.
- Most likely loss: the two vacancies split among Hollywood Brown, Darius Cooper, Dallas Goedert, and backs, leaving Lemon at four or fewer.
Philadelphia Eagles over 5.5
1.93x52¢
Taken at −108 on FanDuel
+93% profit if it wins
Bills BelichicksDown 4% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Nick Sirianni: 61-31 (.663) career SU versus Dan Quinn: 61-63-1 (.492), a +17.1-point coaching edge that clears the +15-point gate.
- Philadelphia is the qualifying +5.5 underdog; FanDuel posts the line at -108.
- Eagles average 52.3 penalty yards per game versus Washington's 59.8; season turnover margin is tied at -1 each.
- Jalen Hurts is out; Philadelphia is 2-5 with a -10.8 recent scoring margin, versus Washington's 1-4-1 and -6.7.
Rachaad White first touchdownLong shot
7.14x14¢
Taken at 14¢ on Polymarket US
+614% profit if it wins
PaydirtUp 14% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- White is the expected RB1 after the current depth-chart read removed IR-listed Jacory Croskey-Merritt from the backfield.
- The Washington first-team-touchdown contract is 65c, while White's 14c first-TD contract leaves room for a primary-back share of that team probability.
- Washington's recent 2.7 red-zone possessions per game and Philadelphia's 86% recent opponent red-zone conversion rate support early Washington scoring opportunity.
- First-touchdown markets are intrinsically wide; opening-kick winner and scripted-drive plan are not yet known.
Darius Cooper under 2.5 receptions
1.83x55¢
Taken at −121 on DraftKings
+83% profit if it wins
Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- L5: 3/5 under 2.5 receptions (60%); no pushes.
- 7/10 under 2.5 (70%); 2026 season is 3/5 under.
- His 2026 season average is 1.29 receptions, 45.7% below the 2.5 threshold; he has three straight current-season unders.
- Cooper is an officially confirmed starter with a 58.1% season snap share, so role growth is plausible.
Rachaad White under 13.5 receiving yards
1.90x53¢
Taken at −111 on BetMGM
+90% profit if it wins
Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- L5: 3/5 under 13.5 (60%); no pushes.
- 6/10 under 13.5 (60%); 2026 season also 3/5 under.
- The last-10 average is 13.1 yards versus the 13.5 line; his pass-down-satellite role limits rushing-game target spillover.
- Current-season receiving average is 16.6 yards, above the line; two 30-plus-yard games drive the over risk.
Saquon Barkley over 42.5 rushing yards
1.88x53¢
Taken at −113 on FanDuel
+88% profit if it wins
Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- L5: 3/5 over 42.5 (60%); no pushes.
- 8/10 over 42.5 (80%), including five straight before this season.
- 2026 season: 3/5 over; 48.8-yard average is 14.8% above the FanDuel line.
- Barkley is officially active but has a committee role: 32.8% snap share and 8.6 carries per 2026 game.
Game total over 46.5Long shot
3.13x32¢
Taken at 32¢ on ProphetX
+213% profit if it wins
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Book_levels: Over 3 versus Under 3; availability plus depth provide two-of-three support, with more than a few hundred dollars at the thin quote.
- Directional check: backing Over 46.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- Book-level count ties 3-3, so the third measure is neutral.
Philadelphia Eagles under 40.5 total points
1.91x52¢
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
+91% profit if it wins
Number EarnedDown 26% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Fair total 39.2; estimated under probability 54% versus DraftKings 40.5 at -110.
- Philadelphia averaged 15.8 points across its last five; Tanner McKee is the confirmed starter with only 2 games and 80 attempts this season.
- Season points-per-drive are modest: Washington 1.860 and Philadelphia 1.781, while both offenses rank below zero in current EPA/play.
- Washington allowed 29.6 points per game across its last five, so Philadelphia can still score efficiently if turnovers create short fields.

Win chance

Eagles31%

Commanders69%

PHI 31%69% WAS

Steady at Commanders 70% since Oct 29

Odds

Moneyline odds
Where	PHI	WAS
Prediction markets
NovigPartner	31¢	70¢
Polymarket US	31¢	70¢
Kalshi	31¢	70¢
ProphetXPartner	+230	−235
Polymarket	31¢	70¢
Tailgate	31¢	69¢
Books
DraftKings	+225	−278
FanDuel	+200	−245
BetMGM	+210	−250
Caesars	+210	−265
Fanatics	+210	−260
BetRivers	+210	−265

Questions

Who do the AI models pick in Eagles vs. Commanders?

The top pick is Philadelphia Eagles exact margin 1-6 at 11¢ from Exact Change (17–74, +81.4u).

Who is more likely to win Eagles vs. Commanders?

Market prices give the Eagles a 31% chance and the Commanders 69%.

When is Eagles vs. Commanders?

Sunday, Nov 1, 2026 at 8:20 PM ET at Northwest Stadium.