Jaguars vs. Ravens DFS: Derrick Henry's touchdowns dried up
Derrick Henry still gets his yards without Lamar Jackson, but the touchdowns stopped: seven in Lamar's four starts, two in the four games since. The cheap touchdown play is Jacksonville's $3,400 backup, who has more carries inside the 10 than the starter.
Henry's DraftKings scoring fell by half once Lamar went down
King Henry could get a huge workload and be a solid leverage option.
Zach Thompson of FantasyLabs makes the contrarian case for Derrick Henry tonight, and Henry is one of SportsLine pro Mike McClure's top plays in CBS Sports' rundown. Thompson thinks the field will fade him. Our ownership estimate, a rough model, still has him in about 59% of DraftKings showdown lineups.
Baltimore will keep feeding him the ball, and that part is fine. What's gone is the touchdowns: seven in Lamar Jackson's four starts, two in the four games since. The books give him a 41% chance to score tonight.
Lines as of 6:39 a.m. PT; news before the 5:15 p.m. PT lock can change this.
Henry still gets his yards, just not the touchdowns
Our game preview found Henry gaining the same yards per carry with or without Lamar. The scoring is what left: with Lamar, Henry scored seven times in four games.
Then Lamar hurt his thumb and is headed to injured reserve, Tyler Huntley went down for the year, and undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano gets the start. Since then Henry has two touchdowns in four games, one of them a catch, and his DraftKings scoring went from 23.5 points a game to 12.2.
The books don't see that changing tonight. They set Baltimore's total at about 15 points, against about 25 for Jacksonville.
They aren't fading Henry's workload either: his yards line is 68, close to the 65 a game he's averaged since Week 5. At $10,200, the prop market prices him near 12.5 DraftKings points, and Snapp's blend says 15, lifted by FanDuel's own 18.7.
Jacksonville's backup back shares the goal-line work
Bhayshul Tuten is the Jaguars' lead back, but he's questionable with an ankle and foot injury and didn't practice Wednesday. Even with Tuten healthy, Chris Rodriguez Jr. has gotten as many short carries on far fewer touches.
If Tuten sits, Rodriguez also takes over the early downs, and his $3,400 price can't change before lock. If Tuten plays, Rodriguez still splits the goal-line carries, in a game the books expect the Jaguars to control.
7carries inside the 10- Rodriguez has 45 carries and three touchdowns. Four of his carries came inside the 5.
- By the books' numbers he's the likeliest scorer in the game, barely: Tuten is at 48% and Henry 41%.
- He was limited in practice Wednesday with a hand injury but has no game status.
Build around Jacksonville, with Rodriguez in every tournament lineup
We built one cash and two tournament lineups with Snapp's optimizer at 6:32 a.m. PT. All three pass DraftKings' rules. Ownership is the tool's estimate, not a measured number.
The cash build: Lawrence at captain, Henry only as a flex
Trevor LawrenceJAX @ BAL$15,90026.9
Parker WashingtonJAX @ BAL$9,40014.5
Derrick HenryBAL vs JAX$10,20015.0
Cam LittleJAX @ BAL$5,4008.6
Mark AndrewsBAL vs JAX$4,4007.2
Justice HillBAL vs JAX$3,2005.9Built 6:32 a.m. PT. DraftKings points; ownership is an estimate, summed across the six players.
| Lineup | Captain | Flex (5) | Salary | Projection | Est. ownership |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | Trevor Lawrence ($15,900) | Parker Washington, Derrick Henry, Cam Little, Mark Andrews, Justice Hill | $48,500 | 78.0 | 184% summed |
| Tournament 1 | Parker Washington ($14,100) | Trevor Lawrence, Chris Rodriguez Jr., Zay Flowers, Joe Fagnano, Josh Cameron | $49,700 | 75.1 | 136% summed |
| Tournament 2 | Parker Washington ($14,100) | Trevor Lawrence, Brenton Strange, Mark Andrews, Chris Rodriguez Jr., Jaguars D/ST | $45,700 | 71.5 | 141% summed |
- Cash leaves Tuten out because he's questionable after missing practice. Henry's floor is fine there; in tournaments, his touchdown slide is the bigger risk.
- Both tournament builds drop Henry, lock Rodriguez and captain Washington, whom our estimate puts at 15% as captain.
- Zay Flowers is only a bring-back. He caught none of five targets from Fagnano at Buffalo, and his yards line is 48.5.
- Kickers had no prop line, so Cam Little carries Sleeper and ESPN's average (8.6), with no downside built in.
Two DFS pick'em unders the books back
Snapp's pick'em board checked five sites against Pinnacle, DraftKings and FanDuel at 6:39 a.m. PT. Both catch unders clear the break-even at all three books, one leg per player.
The books back Henry and Meyers to catch fewer passes
Derrick HenryBAL · ReceptionsPrizePicks·Underdog1.5Pick61.5Sleeper1.5Market57% underUnder 1.5
Jakobi MeyersJAX · ReceptionsPrizePicks·Underdog3.5Pick63.5Sleeper3.5Market59% underUnder 3.5- Henry under 1.5 catches (Pick6): he's caught two or more in just three of eight games, and the books make the under 57% to 60%.
- Meyers under 3.5 catches (Pick6): he was limited in practice Wednesday with hamstring and ankle injuries, and the books make it 58% to 59%.
- Both clear a 3-pick power play's 55% break-even at every book; neither clears a 2-pick at all three.
- We left off Lawrence under 29.5 throws on Dabble: Pinnacle calls it a coin flip, and he captains all three lineups.
Before lock, check the NFL injury report for Tuten and ESPN's injury list for late moves. Our game page has live prices, our NFL predictions more picks, and Pete Prisco has Jacksonville winning 27-16. Our Monday night breakdown used the same method.
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Questions people ask
Should I play Derrick Henry in the Jaguars vs. Ravens showdown?
In cash, he's fine. In tournaments, fade him: he has two touchdowns in four games without Lamar Jackson, after seven in four with him. Our estimate has him in about 59% of lineups.
Who is the best value in Jaguars vs. Ravens DFS?
Chris Rodriguez Jr. at $3,400. He has seven carries inside the 10 to Bhayshul Tuten's six, on far fewer total carries, and the books make him about 50% to score.
What are the best DFS pick'em plays for Jaguars vs. Ravens?
As of 6:39 a.m. PT: Derrick Henry under 1.5 catches and Jakobi Meyers under 3.5 catches, both on Pick6. Each clears a 3-pick power play's break-even at Pinnacle, DraftKings and FanDuel.
What time does the Jaguars vs. Ravens showdown lock?
Thursday, Nov. 5, at 5:15 p.m. PT (8:15 p.m. ET), kickoff in Baltimore. Showdown contests lock at kickoff.
How we did this
DraftKings showdown draft group 156000. Projections are Snapp's blend of no-vig prop lines, pick'em lines, Sleeper and ESPN projections and FanDuel's own, read 6:30 a.m. PT. Ownership is a hand-set estimate. Lineups come from Snapp's optimizer (cash: projection plus floor; tournaments: ceiling minus an ownership penalty, seed 1105); kickers set to Sleeper and ESPN, Rodriguez set to his prop-market line. Pick'em: Snapp's board, five sites against Pinnacle, DraftKings and FanDuel, re-read 6:39 a.m. PT. Henry's points and red-zone carries: Snapp's NFL warehouse, regular season through Nov. 1.