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FinalT-Mobile Park
Astros77-79
7-0
Mariners73-83
Score by period
Team123456789T
HOU1030010207
SEA0000000000

Top model pick, graded

Won

Houston Astros F5 winner (first 5 innings) 36¢

Why Opening Frame likes it: Logan Gilbert's home L5 WHIP is 1.34 with a 5.53 L5 ERA, firing the Gone-by-Six signal toward Houston.

Opening FrameUp 1% return this season · 121 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 12-19 on this game · −28% return

  1. Seattle Mariners to win5 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US

    5 modelsParity Desk, Bullpen Buzzards +3
    Why 5 models like it
    Parity Desk
    • Ledger: Seattle +0.00 runs; Houston xwOBA versus RHP is .3071, producing −0.50 runs capped at −0.40 for Partial coverage.
    • Javier can outperform his 4.98 xFIP, and the capped 0.40-run Houston penalty may overstate the matchup effect.
    Bullpen Buzzards
    • FanDuel home price −142 is inside the rule's −150 to −110 short-favorite band.
    • Assigned plate umpire Ryan Blakney's blended K rate is 17.72 K/PG, above the 17.0 threshold.
    • This is a rule-based signal, not an independent matchup projection; the early-season backtest has only 89 games.
    Selective Pressure
    • Seattle starter Logan Gilbert: 3.63 xERA and .294 xwOBA allowed versus Cristian Javier's 4.73 xERA and .332 xwOBA allowed.
    • Gilbert's 2026 profile shows a 9.81 K/9; Javier is at 8.41 K/9, supporting the stronger starting-pitching side.
    • Seattle's overall 2026 record is 73-83 versus Houston's 77-79, so the team-strength signal is not one-way.
    The Core 6 Independent Syndicate
    • Independent cash estimate 60%; DraftKings −135 implies 57.4%, fair price about −150.
    • Cristian Javier: 5.31 ERA, 4.73 xERA, .332 xwOBA allowed; Logan Gilbert: 3.69 ERA, 3.63 xERA, .294 xwOBA allowed.
    • Gilbert's recent form is poor: 6.11 ERA over his last three starts and 5.53 over his last five.
  2. Logan Gilbert over 6.5 strikeouts2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +121 on DraftKings

    2 modelsPesto Changeup, K’s
    Why 2 models like it
    Pesto Changeup
    • Ryan Blakney fit CS delta +0.00 and fit_z +0.50; positive zone fit supports completing Gilbert's third turn.
    • G1: TTO3 K rate drops 14.45 points versus TTO1 and xwOBA rises .0258; third-turn decay can hold him below seven Ks.
    K’s
    • L5 workload is 5.53 IP and 96.8 pitches per start; the last five produced 7, 11, 10, 4 and 5 Ks.
    • L5 fastball velocity is 96.84 mph versus a 95.74 mph season baseline; the umpire fit adds 0.78 K/game versus average.
    • The last-five average is 7.4 Ks, but removing the 11-K outlier leaves exactly 6.5.
  3. Cristian Javier over 4.5 strikeouts2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +106 on FanDuel

    2 modelsSeñor Strikeouts, +EV Volume Handicapper
    Why 2 models like it
    Señor Strikeouts
    • Javier's last three starts produced 2, 5, and 8 strikeouts; his last-five K/9 is 10.36.
    • Recent workloads were 79, 79, and 85 pitches on five days' rest; no IL flag.
    • Seattle's 22.5% K rate is below the 25% prime-over threshold.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Estimated fair probability 56%; FanDuel +106 breaks even at 48.5%, a +7.5-point price edge.
    • Javier owns an 8.41 K/9 season mark and 10.36 K/9 over his last five starts.
    • Javier struck out only two in his latest start and carries a 5.31 ERA with a 1.46 WHIP.
  4. Houston Astros F5 winner (first 5 innings)High conviction
    +178%Won

    Taken at 36¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Logan Gilbert's home L5 WHIP is 1.34 with a 5.53 L5 ERA, firing the Gone-by-Six signal toward Houston.
    • Cristian Javier owns a 1.15 L5 WHIP, 3.33 L5 ERA and 24.33 L5 innings against this Seattle lineup.
    • Seattle's vs-righty team xwOBA is .3219 versus Houston's .3071; its top three are all posted and can exploit Javier.
  5. Houston Astros F5 total over 3.5 (first 5 innings)
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 F5 run inputs: HOU 2.62 runs/game vs SEA 2.37 allowed; SEA 2.42 vs HOU 3.04 allowed; park factor 86.
    • Javier owns a 5.31 F5 ERA and .332 xwOBA against; Gilbert's L5 is 5.53 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.
    • T-Mobile Park's 86 run factor can suppress the modeled 4.5-run mean.
  6. Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners first-five total under 3.5 (first 5 innings)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full-game anchors center the scoring environment near 7.5 runs: Polymarket US over 7.5 is 46¢ and sharp reference is 7.0, 7.5.
    • A five-inning slice should be below half the full-game environment because starters generally outperform later relievers.
    • 2026 MLB totals are right-skewed, spanning 1, 32 runs with 7 the modal total; the fitted read is not based on a symmetric assumption.
    • The F5 ladder may already encode confirmed starter quality more accurately than the broad full-game anchor.
Show all 28 picks
  1. No 9th inning drawLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 27¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Seattle win anchor is 55.5%; full-game total anchor centers the game near 7.5 runs.
    • 2026 MLB totals are right-skewed but the 2,342-game sample has an 8-run median; a 7.5-run fit implies roughly 49% no-draw.
    • The 9th-inning draw quote is 74¢ YES / 27¢ NO, far below the anchor-derived no-draw probability.
    • Per-inning contracts are thin and the ninth-inning bullpen assignments are unknown.
  2. Seattle Mariners over 3.5 runs scored
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Seattle's posted lineup has five left-handed hitters plus two switch hitters against right-handed Cristian Javier.
    • Seattle owns a .3219 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching; Javier allows .332 xwOBA with a 5.31 season ERA.
    • Houston's bullpen has used 7.67 innings and 141 pitches in three days, increasing Seattle's late-inning scoring path.
    • Logan Gilbert remains a strong counterweight for Houston: 3.63 ERA, .294 xwOBA allowed, and 94.7 pitches per start.
  3. Logan Gilbert under 18.5 outs recordedFavoriteHigh conviction
    +52%Won

    Taken at 66¢ on Kalshi

    MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded ModelUp 27% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 16.6 projected outs; boundary-weighted model gives 72% under 18.5, about 6 points above the 66¢ cost.
    • Gilbert’s last five starts: 18, 21, 14, 15, 15 outs; 96.8 average pitches and 4.09 observed pitches per batter.
    • Seattle starters over the latest 30 starts averaged 16.1 outs; 25 of 30 stayed below 19 outs.
    • Five-start pitcher sample is thin; Gilbert’s lone 21-out start shows meaningful upper-tail risk.
  4. Total runs under 7.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

    Parity DeskUp 29% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Houston xwOBA .3071 versus RHP triggers the −0.50-run platoon ledger, capped at −0.40 in Partial coverage.
    • Seattle has a .3219 xwOBA versus RHP, so its offense can overwhelm Houston's platoon drag.
  5. Logan Gilbert over 5.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −164 on FanDuel

    MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODELUp 24% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model projects 6.8 strikeouts; approximately 68, 70% probability of 6+, a 1.3-K gap.
    • 2026 baseline: 27.2% strikeout rate and 9.81 K/9; last five starts produced 37 Ks in 119 batters faced.
    • Gilbert averaged 23.8 batters faced across his last five starts, with 87, 102 pitches in each.
    • Third-time-through-order strikeout rate falls to 19.1%, so an early contact-heavy path can strand the projection near five.
  6. MLB game total under 7.5
    +80%Won

    Taken at −125 on DraftKings

    Always winsUp 16% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 88% of public tickets are on the Over, per ScoresAndOdds consensus data.
    • Pinnacle total moved from 7.5 to 7 despite the public Over majority: clear resistance.
    • Seattle's park factor is 86 runs; Logan Gilbert's expected wOBA allowed is .294.
    • Seven is a key push number; eight or more runs loses the 7.5 ticket.
  7. Brock Rodden under 0.5 RBIFavoriteHigh conviction
    +18%Won

    Taken at −550 on BetMGM

    Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 100% (10/10) last-10 games produced 0 RBI.
    • 0.23 xwOBA vs RHP is 27.7% below the 0.32 league average.
    • Confirmed batting ninth; Cristian Javier is a confirmed right-handed starter.
    • The 53-PA current-season split is thin despite the strong xWoba gap.
  8. Under 7 total
    0%Push

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Power inputs: park run factor 86; Houston and Seattle are both below-average in run differential at −29 and −94.
    • Confirmed starters: Logan Gilbert xERA 3.63; Astros and Mariners wOBA vs right-handed pitching are .307 and .322.
    • Cristian Javier's 4.73 xERA creates a real early-inning blowup path.
  9. 3rd-inning draw
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • inning-3 draw is 54c versus 59c, 58c, 62c and 61c in innings 1, 2, 4 and 5.
    • the first-five board is SEA 48c, HOU 36c, draw 17c; inning 3 is the clear early-inning draw discount.
    • inning 3 uses both clubs’ 7-9 hitters, unlike the stronger top and middle-order cycles around it.
    • The contract loses on any unequal inning score, including one multi-run swing; variance is substantial.
  10. Game total runs over 7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +104 on FanDuel

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected 8.2 total runs; fair total line 8.0; Over 7.5 win probability 57.6%; push probability 0%.
    • Official 1, 9 lineups, starters, weather, and open-roof state were locked at 8:10 PM CDT.
    • Cristian Javier carries a 5.31 ERA and .332 xwOBA allowed; Seattle's right-handed split is .322 xwOBA.
    • Logan Gilbert is the stronger starter: 3.69 ERA, .294 xwOBA allowed, and 9.81 K/9.
  11. Full game under 7.5 runs
    +78%Won

    Taken at −128 on FanDuel

    BelloUp 7% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Market mismatch: FanDuel offers 7.5 at −128 while the sharp reference is 7, creating valuable half-run protection.
    • Houston averaged 2.8 runs across its last 10 games; its 30-day xwOBA versus right-handers is .282.
    • Logan Gilbert owns a 1.06 season WHIP and 9.81 K/9; his last three starts produced 17.67 innings.
    • Cristian Javier’s 1.46 WHIP leaves a direct path for Seattle to clear its share of the total.
  12. Game total under 7.0 runs
    0%Push

    Taken at +100 on DraftKings

    Shawn’s Park & Weather Totals EngineUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model total 6.78 runs; Poisson gives 48.3% under, 36.8% over, and 14.9% exactly seven (push).
    • T-Mobile Park run factor is 86 with 10-foot elevation; cool 65°F air and only 3 mph out suppress the scoring environment.
    • Logan Gilbert owns a 3.63 xERA and 1.06 WHIP; Cristian Javier's 4.73 xERA is the main over concern, but his high fly-ball profile gets no wind multiplier at 3 mph.
    • Javier's 1.48 HR/9 and 1.46 WHIP can create early damage despite the park suppression.
  13. Seattle Mariners first-five winner (first 5 innings)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket

    Loose Cohort MLBUp 5% last 30 days
  14. Houston Astros run line +1
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Houston +1 pushes on a one-run Seattle win; Houston +1.5 instead wins that exact outcome.
    • ProphetX prices Houston +1 at −124 (55.36¢) versus Houston +1.5 at −174 (63.50¢), an 8.14¢ gap.
    • A push is not a win: Houston must win outright to cash this contract.
  15. Game total under 7 runs
    0%Push

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Whole-number under 7 pushes at exactly 7 runs; under 7.5 wins that outcome.
    • Seven runs pushes rather than wins, so a 4-3 final returns stake and does not generate profit.
  16. Dominic Canzone over 0.5 hits
    +55%Won

    Taken at −182 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed batting third in Seattle's posted lineup; sportsbook participant feed lists him active.
    • 10 hits in his last 10 games, clearing the brief's 60% recent-form threshold.
    • His .2601 average versus right-handed pitching implies a 70% four-PA hit model versus 64.5% implied at −182.
    • for-10 hit streak is a small, highly volatile sample and can regress sharply.
  17. Yordan Alvarez over 0.5 hitsFavorite
    +51%Won

    Taken at −196 on DraftKings

    +EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Estimated fair probability 72%; DraftKings −196 breaks even at 66.2%, a +5.8-point edge.
    • Alvarez is hitting .3099 versus right-handed pitching this season and bats second in the confirmed lineup.
    • The matchup board lists Logan Gilbert at a .227 expected batting average allowed, but Alvarez's platoon offense remains materially stronger.
    • The hit price moved sharply against the over, from −248 overnight to −196 pregame.
  18. Cristian Javier 5+ pitching strikeouts: No
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last 8 starts: 39.7 IP and 36 K; innings averaged 4.96, with 3 of 8 outings at 4.0, 4.33 IP.
    • Confirmed Houston lineup: 687 strikeouts in 3,221 PA versus right-handers, a 21.3% K rate.
    • Recent TTO sample: 118 PA; Javier struck out 27.8% first time, 27.8% second, 20% third.
    • Four of Javier’s last eight starts reached five strikeouts; this is a volatile count market.
  19. Seattle Mariners run line −1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 37¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • TTO decay: Javier's xwOBA allowed rises .303 (TTO1) → .327 (TTO2) → .357 (TTO3).
    • Seattle's posted lineup clears the RHP gate: .3219 xwOBA and 22.5% strikeout rate versus right-handers.
    • Cashing likelihood: moderate, driven by Javier's TTO/velocity deterioration; price quality is separately strong at +170.
    • Most likely loss: Gilbert controls the game and Seattle cannot convert against Houston's rested bullpen.
  20. First-inning runs: No
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Derived first-frame estimate is 56% NO: Javier allowed .154 BA with 20.9% K and 0 HR in 43 first-inning PA; Gilbert's 32.3% K rate adds strikeout suppression.
    • Posted top threes are verified: Houston Peña/Alvarez/Paredes and Seattle Crawford/Arozarena/Canzone; no inferred batting-order substitution drives this read.
    • T-Mobile Park's 86 run factor and only 3-mph wind modestly restrain the environment; the full-game 7/7.5 total is NOT a valid RFI reference because it answers a different inning mix.
    • Gilbert's first-inning BA is .281 with 5 HR allowed in 130 PA, a direct path to an Astros score.
  21. Seattle Mariners run line −1
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Houston's bullpen logged 7.67 innings and 141 pitches over three days. Seattle logged 4.67 innings and 85 pitches.
    • Cross-market flow is coherent: Seattle moneyline and −1 carry more size; under 7.5 also leads 4.17x. Board as_of_pt: 2026-09-22T18:06:32-07:00.
    • LEAN. The 5.52x ratio is below the 10x RECOMMENDED threshold.
  22. Houston Astros F5 to win (first 5 innings)
    +178%Won

    Taken at 36¢ on Kalshi

    Five FramesUp 9% over 37 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Coverage arithmetic: fair 43%, Kalshi devigged 35.5%, gap +7.5p; exact F5 moneyline rung; gap is below 10p.
    • Gone by Six fires for Houston: Gilbert WHIP L5 1.34 and ERA L5 5.53; aligned top-three xwOBA HOU .363 versus SEA .342.
    • Gilbert season xERA 3.63 and xWoba-against .294 beat Javier's 4.73 and .332; L5 regression can erase the signal.

Questions

Who won Astros vs. Mariners?

The Astros won 7-0 on Tuesday, Sep 22, 2026.

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