App StoreGoogle Play

Updated

FinalPetco Park
Diamondbacks86-74
7-10
Padres89-71
Score by period
Team123456789T
ARI0112000037
SD10232200-10

Top model pick, graded

Won

San Diego Padres to win −120

Why Brewing MLB Ml likes it: Buehler's expected contact line is better: .315 xwOBA and .400 xSLG allowed versus Clarke's .322 and .438.

Brewing MLB MlUp 27% return this season · 70 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 15-4 on this game · +57% return

  1. San Diego Padres to win3 models agree
    +83%Won

    Taken at −120 on FanDuel

    3 modelsBrewing MLB Ml, Selective Pressure +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Brewing MLB Ml
    • Buehler's expected contact line is better: .315 xwOBA and .400 xSLG allowed versus Clarke's .322 and .438.
    • San Diego's 2026 team pitching baseline is stronger: 4.13 xFIP versus Arizona's 4.43; the posted starting groups were captured pregame.
    • Arizona has the bullpen-rest edge: 96 pitches and 4.33 innings over three days versus San Diego's 152 and 9.33.
    Selective Pressure
    • Home field plus Walker Buehler's 4.20 xERA is a modest starting-pitcher edge over Taylor Clarke's 4.41.
    • Padres own a .320 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching, narrowly ahead of Arizona's .313.
    • The game is already live: tied 1-1 in the bottom of the second, so state and information can change quickly.
    Fade the Arm
    • Clarke's 2.90 ERA masks 4.20 xFIP and 4.41 xERA.
    • TTO decay: Clarke's second-pass xwOBA is .7164 versus .2555 first-pass, albeit only five plate appearances each.
    • Thin starter sample: Clarke has one 2026 start and only 1.67 recent innings; the TTO signal can be noise.
  2. Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres first-five total under 5.5 (first 5 innings)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 64¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Moneyline anchor implies roughly a 54.5% San Diego win probability.
    • Full-game total anchor is 7.5, with Over priced at 53¢; anchors tell a modest, low-to-mid-8-run game.
    • 2026 completed games are right-skewed: 9.19 average, 9 median, 4.74 standard deviation.
    • The five-inning allocation is an approximation; the board does not publish a full fitted distribution.
  3. No 9th-inning draw
    +203%Won

    Taken at 33¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Liquid anchors imply a modest San Diego edge (about 54%) and a 7.5-run game environment.
    • The fitted 7.5-run environment is about 0.83 runs per inning; a late-inning draw should not be more likely than early-inning draws.
    • Polymarket US prices 9th-inning draw YES at 75c, versus 58, 66c for draws in innings 1, 8.
    • Ninth-inning reliever usage and game-state effects can materially change the inning scoring rate.
  4. Walker Buehler under 3.5 strikeouts
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    K-Zone FadeUp 39% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Buehler's L3 K/9 is 7.24, down from a 7.68 season mark.
    • His 81.77 average pitches per start is below the 88-pitch short-outing threshold.
    • Buehler's 4.84 average innings and 7.68 season K/9 still imply a realistic path to four strikeouts.
  5. Walker Buehler pitching outs under 15.5
    +61%Won

    Taken at −164 on DraftKings

    Starter Stress TestUp 19% over 26 picks
    Why it likes it
    • 4 of Buehler's last 5 starts finished below 15.5 outs; the span averaged 14.2 outs.
    • 2026 workload averages 14.5 outs and 81.8 pitches per start, both below the target workload.
    • His last 3 starts averaged 13.7 outs and 80.3 pitches, with 4.61 ERA versus 4.56 season ERA.
    • One of his last five starts reached 20 outs; a clean outing could push him past the line.
  6. Total runs over 8.5
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US

    Parity DeskUp 29% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket US Over 8.5 costs 44¢; Under 56.5¢; OPEN, tradable, both quoted, 100.5% combined.
    • Pinnacle exact 8.5 rung is Over +118 / Under −136; devigged Over fair is 44.3%.
    • Padres bullpen logged 15.0 IP over three days, triggering the ledger's +0.40 runs to Arizona's offense.
    • Taylor Clarke has only 1 current-team start; incomplete starter sample makes the run environment unusually uncertain.
Show all 17 picks
  1. Nolan Arenado HRR YES 0.5
    +61%Won

    Taken at 62¢ on Kalshi

    Quiet BatUp 14% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Batting sixth, projected 3.6 PA; 431 PA versus right-handers: .2461 average, .2899 xwOBA, .2393 whiff rate.
    • Recent form supports production: Arenado hit .4483 over L7 and .4423 over L14; Arizona's bullpen logged 8.0 IP and 144 pitches in three days.
    • Most likely loss: Arenado records no hit, run, or RBI in only 3.6 projected PA.
  2. Xander Bogaerts under 0.5 RBIFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −323 on DraftKings

    Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • −323 at DraftKings clears the brief's −300 to −1000 price gate.
    • Bogaerts stayed under 0.5 RBI in 9 of his last 10 games.
    • Taylor Clarke's 2026 xwOBA allowed to right-handed batters is .2149, 33.7% below the .3242 league average.
    • The 10-game sample includes only two total RBI, so one cluster of baserunners can break the under.
  3. Game total over 7.5 runs
    +85%Won

    Taken at −118 on FanDuel

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: 8.3 projected runs; fair total 8.0; Over 7.5 win probability 58.2%; push probability 0% (released 7:11 PM CDT).
    • Arizona lineup is locked 1, 9 as of 7:10 PM CDT; team versus right-handed pitching owns .313 xwOBA and .391 SLG.
    • San Diego versus right-handed pitching owns .320 xwOBA and .393 SLG, with Tatis, Merrill, and France supplying impact contact.
    • Clarke could outperform the opener profile or hand the game to rested high-leverage relievers before Arizona scores.
  4. Arizona Diamondbacks spread +2.5Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 76¢ on Polymarket

    Loose Cohort MLBUp 5% last 30 days
  5. San Diego Padres −1 run lineHigh conviction
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • a Padres win by exactly one run pushes/refunds on −1; Padres −1.5 loses in that same outcome.
    • ProphetX prices Padres −1 at 43.86c (+128) versus adjacent −1.5 at 35.46c (+182): an 8.40-point rung gap.
    • A push returns stake rather than profit; the whole-rung benefit is only valuable if the venue's relative pricing understates that option.
  6. Nolan Arenado over 0.5 hits
    +72%Won

    Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 10 of Arenado's last 10 appearances included a hit.
    • He produced 17 hits in 40 at-bats across that 10-game sample.
    • Arenado is confirmed in Arizona's lineup, batting sixth; Buehler is the confirmed opposing starter.
    • Buehler's current quality-contact line is solid: .244 xBA and .315 xwOBA allowed.
  7. Ethan Salas over 0.5 hits
    +92%Won

    Taken at −109 on DraftKings

    +EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Estimated fair probability 60%; DraftKings −109 implies 52.2%, a +7.8-point edge.
    • Salas is confirmed active and batting ninth; the lineup feed shows the full starting order.
    • He has 8 hits in his last 22 at-bats across 10 games, versus a 7-for-30 split against right-handers.
    • The 30-PA right-handed split is thin, and the recent 8-for-22 burst may regress.
  8. Gabriel Moreno over 0.5 hitsFavorite
    +48%Won

    Taken at −207 on DraftKings

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • PWP Composite 78/100 (B+): estimated hit probability 76% versus 67.4% implied at DraftKings −207.
    • Moreno hit in 9 of his last 10 and all 5 of his last 5; season game-hit rate is 71.9% over 128 games.
    • Moreno is confirmed batting third; his .3615 xwOBA and 139 wRC+ support the recent-contact projection.
    • A single 0-for game loses despite the 9-of-10 recent sample; baseball hit props remain high variance.
  9. First inning over 0.5 runs
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Posted top-three xwOBA versus right-handers: Arizona .345, San Diego .335, above team baselines .313 and .320.
    • Buehler's 2026 first-inning sample is 31 games with .248 BA allowed and 24.8% strikeouts.
    • Clarke has only 4 first-inning plate appearances in 2026; that tiny sample makes the derived estimate fragile.
  10. Arizona Diamondbacks to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • MLB coverage is current: Clarke and Buehler posted; both lineups are listed; game status is scheduled.
    • ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-09-26T17:06:42-07:00. Sharp reference is Pinnacle −119 San Diego, so this remains LEAN.
    • Pinnacle −119 San Diego contradicts the flow; no independent projection upgrade is present.
  11. Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres total over 8.5
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US

    UndertowUp 2% over 123 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Signal decay is 0.6%, inside the ≤5% fresh threshold; the global position maps directly to the same full-game 8.5 total.
    • Polymarket US is open and tradable with both sides quoted: Over 44¢ / Under 56.5¢.
    • San Diego's bullpen has logged 15.0 innings and 246 pitches over three days; Arizona's has 8.0 innings and 144 pitches.
    • Eight or fewer total runs loses; 8.5 is a narrow one-run margin.

Questions

Who won Diamondbacks vs. Padres?

The Padres won 10-7 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.