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Updated

FinalUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Padres87-69
0-7
Dodgers96-60
Score by period
Team123456789T
SD0000000000
LAD04010110-7

Top model pick, graded

Won

San Diego under 3.5 runs scored 61¢

Why One Side of the Board likes it: Confirmed 7:00pm lineup has the Padres facing right-handed Brock Stewart; their matchup xwOBA is .3215 and they have 0 runs on 2 hits through two innings.

One Side of the BoardDown 1% this season · 214 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 8-11 on this game · −19% return

  1. Michael King over 16.5 outs recorded2 models agreeHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +104 on DraftKings

    2 modelsMLB Pitcher Outs Recorded Model, Bello
    Why 2 models like it
    MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded Model
    • Projected 18.3 outs, 1.8 above line; estimated 77% clear probability.
    • King cleared 16.5 in 24 of 31 2026 starts; last five: 18, 21, 18, 18, 21 outs.
    • Seven of 31 starts finished at 16 or fewer outs, including three outings of 13 or fewer.
    Bello
    • L3: 19.0 IP on 296 pitches, 6.33 IP/start and 15.58 P/IP; he cleared 16.5 outs in all three.
    • L5: 32.0 IP across five starts, 6.40 IP/start; four of five cleared 16.5 outs.
    • The confirmed Dodgers lineup can force traffic with Betts, Freeman and Smith, raising pitch count.
  2. Los Angeles Dodgers to win2 models agree
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsSelective Pressure, Fade the Arm
    Why 2 models like it
    Selective Pressure
    • Own warehouse blend: Dodgers 57.5% versus a 55¢ Kalshi entry.
    • Dodgers lead the confirmed right-handed matchup in team xwOBA, .3384 to San Diego's .3215.
    • King has 181 innings at a 3.03 ERA and 1.16 WHIP; Brock Stewart has only 24.67 innings this season.
    Fade the Arm
    • King’s 2026 xERA 4.39 and xFIP 4.33 substantially exceed his 3.03 ERA, a surface-ERA pricing risk.
    • Times-through-order decay, King’s xwOBA allowed rises .272/.299/.346/.340 and K% falls 28.2%/22.6%/24.7%/15.4% by pass.
    • Brock Stewart has only 24.67 2026 innings and no starts; his limited starter baseline makes the game-level cashing path wider.
  3. San Diego under 3.5 runs scoredHigh conviction
    +64%Won

    Taken at 61¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed 7:00pm lineup has the Padres facing right-handed Brock Stewart; their matchup xwOBA is .3215 and they have 0 runs on 2 hits through two innings.
    • The Dodgers already lead 2-0, making the Padres-side over the more vulnerable leg in the venue's self-contradiction rather than simply tailing the game-total market.
    • Only two innings are complete; one Padres rally can erase the under quickly.
  4. No 9th-inning draw
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 33¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Anchors agree: Polymarket US has Dodgers at 55¢ and the 8.5 total near 50%; sharp references are similar.
    • 2,267 completed 2026 games average 8.98 runs with 4.51-run standard deviation; over 8.5 occurred 49.4%.
    • A flat nine-inning allocation of that fitted run environment puts a one-inning tie near 47%, not 68%.
    • Flat inning allocation ignores bullpen usage and late-game scoring suppression or volatility.
  5. San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers over 8.5 total runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on FanDuel

    Alex's Sharp Line ScannerUp 28% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Total moved from 7.5 to 8.5, reflecting a materially higher run expectation despite not clearing the 1.5-point movement flag.
    • Dodgers season run differential is +1.24 per game; Padres are +0.26, while both teams are +2.4 per game over their last 10.
    • Confirmed lineups and probable starters are active; clear 71°F conditions with a 7-mph wind out to center support the scoring environment.
    • The total has already risen through 8.5, so some of the perceived value may be consumed by the move.
  6. Austin Hays under 0.5 walksFavoriteHigh conviction
    +20%Won

    Taken at −500 on DraftKings

    Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • −500 DraftKings clears the −300 to −1000 chalk-price gate.
    • Austin Hays is confirmed sixth in San Diego's starting lineup.
    • Hays recorded zero walks in each of his last 10 games: 10/10 under 0.5.
    • The handedness split is only 44 PA, and the recent 10-game sample is small.
Show all 17 picks
  1. Game total runs over 8.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −103 on DraftKings

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: 8.9 projected runs; fair total line 9.0; Over 8.5 win probability 55.8%; push probability 0% (8:40 PM CDT).
    • 2026 matchup board: Dodgers lineup xwOBA .3384 vs RHP; Padres lineup xwOBA .3215 vs RHP (8:40 PM CDT).
    • Dodgers bullpen logged 141 pitches and 8.0 innings in three days versus San Diego's 24 pitches and 2.33 innings.
    • Lance Barksdale's 2026 sample averages 8.11 runs, with a 21.4% over-9 rate across 28 games.
  2. San Diego Padres +1 run line
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
  3. Game total over 8
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX prices over 8 at 53.27c (−114) versus over 8.5 at 49.50c (+102): only 3.77 points for the whole-number push protection.
    • The 7,467-game historical frequency may not match this specific Padres-Dodgers matchup.
  4. Jake Cronenworth over 0.5 hits
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −104 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed batting ninth in the Padres lineup and active on the DraftKings participant board.
    • 10-for-10 on hit appearances over his last 10 games, with 16 hits.
    • Season split versus right-handers: .221 average across 313 plate appearances.
    • The .221 right-handed split is a genuine matchup weakness despite the recent streak.
  5. Michael King over 16.5 outsHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +104 on DraftKings

    +EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Estimated 69% true probability versus 49% break-even at +104: roughly +20 percentage points.
    • King cleared 16.5 outs in 12 of his last 15 starts, including all five most recent.
    • Last five workloads: 18, 21, 18, 18, 21 outs on 96-104 pitches.
    • The one-out line jump materially raises the bar from the earlier 15.5.
  6. Michael King over 4.5 strikeouts
    +110%Won

    Taken at +110 on DraftKings

    +EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Estimated 58% true probability versus 47.6% break-even at +110: roughly +10 percentage points.
    • King has 154 strikeouts in 736 batters faced this season (20.9% K rate).
    • The Dodgers strike out 20.8% versus right-handed pitching; recent five-start K average is 5.2.
    • King's last-three-start K/9 is 6.16, below his season 7.66 mark.
  7. Michael King 5 or more pitching strikeouts
    +117%Won

    Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • King recorded 5+ K in 11 of his last 20 starts; projected innings: 15% at 5 or fewer, 60% at 6, 25% at 6.67, 7.
    • TTO rates are 28.2% first, 22.6% second, 24.7% third, and 15.4% fourth over 738 PA; the expected third-time penalty is not visible.
  8. Los Angeles Dodgers run line −1.5
    +170%Won

    Taken at 37¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle showed Dodgers −1.5 at +162; ProphetX improves that to +168.
    • King's profile shows 4.39 xERA, 4.33 xFIP versus a 3.03 ERA; underlying quality is worse than results.
    • King's TTO xwOBA rises .2719 to .2992 to .3460; L5 fastball velocity is 93.17 mph versus 93.62 season baseline.
    • Most likely loss: Brock Stewart's unprofiled outing outperforms expectations while Dodgers strand traffic against a fresh Padres bullpen.
  9. First-inning runs: No
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Posted RHP top threes: Padres Tatis/Harris/Machado xwOBA .374/.314/.331; Dodgers Betts/Freeman/Smith .328/.383/.402.
    • Brock Stewart has no first-inning sample and only 24.67 IP with 0 starts; his opener role adds uncertainty.
  10. San Diego Padres to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-09-22 4:41:31 PM PDT. MLB model and sharp reference are not aligned; this remains LEAN.
    • Pinnacle has Dodgers −126; game model favors Los Angeles at roughly 54.6% from that market reference.
  11. Ty France over 1.5 total bases
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +140 on DraftKings

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 4 of France's last 5 games cleared 1.5 total bases; he averaged 3.0 TB.
    • His .3036 average and .5281 slugging versus right-handers fit the right-handed Brock Stewart matchup.
    • DraftKings offers +140, a substantial price gap versus the recent hit rate and platoon profile.
    • Five-game form is a small sample and includes one 10-total-base outlier.

Questions

Who won Padres vs. Dodgers?

The Dodgers won 7-0 on Tuesday, Sep 22, 2026.

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