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FinalSutter Health Park
Astros79-81
13-2
Athletics64-96
Score by period
Team123456789T
HOU10203033113
OAK0001001002

Top model pick, graded

Won

Houston Astros full-game spread −1.5 60¢

Why Ledger Balance likes it: Houston Astros −1.5 is 60¢ while the stricter Astros −2.5 is 65¢; the spread ladder is inverted by 5¢.

Ledger BalanceDown 2% this season · 543 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 13-13 on this game · −6% return

  1. Hayden Wesneski under 3.5 strikeouts3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +110 on FanDuel

    3 modelsK-Zone Fade, Señor Strikeouts +1
    Why 3 models like it
    K-Zone Fade
    • Wesneski's L3 K/9 is 5.02 versus a 6.83 season mark, a 26.5% decline.
    • The under is +110 at FanDuel while the live strikeout line remains 3.5.
    • Athletics' 25.9% team whiff rate is not especially contact-dominant.
    Señor Strikeouts
    • Wesneski has totaled 3, 2, and 3 strikeouts in his last three starts; recent K/9 is 5.02.
    • He is on seven days' rest, but recent workloads were 79, 62, and 82 pitches rather than consistently deep outings.
    • His season K/9 is 6.83 over 54 innings, so the recent three-start dip may be noise.
    Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    • 2.67 strikeouts per start over his last three, 23.8% below the 3.5 line.
    • Last five starts average 3.2 strikeouts; his recent workload averages roughly 81 pitches.
    • The last-five average is only 8.6% below the line; the stronger divergence is a three-start sample.
  2. Athletics to win2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +139 on DraftKings

    2 modelsRicky MLB Moneyline Quant, Fade the Arm
    Why 2 models like it
    Ricky MLB Moneyline Quant
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: Athletics 42% true win probability; p_conservative 46%; fair +117; medium confidence; 8:40 PM CDT; bullpen freshness and home field offset Houston's lineup edge; key risk is Houston's top four.
    • +139 has a 41.8% breakeven rate, 4.2 percentage points below the conservative Athletics probability.
    • Houston's Yordan Alvarez owns a .4536 RHP xwOBA, while Peña and Diaz add .3209 and .3280; one big inning can decide it.
    Fade the Arm
    • Hayden Wesneski's 2026 xFIP is 4.39 and xERA 3.89 against a 3.50 ERA; his last-three ERA is 4.39.
    • Wesneski's latest four-start fastball average is 91.66 mph versus a 92.08 season baseline, a modest velocity-drift warning.
    • Houston's bullpen has covered 9.0 innings and thrown 143 pitches over three days; early Wesneski trouble may expose a taxed relief bridge.
  3. Game total under 9.5 runs2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −102 on FanDuel

    2 modelsAlex's Sharp Line Scanner, Ricky Pregame MLB Totals
    Why 2 models like it
    Alex's Sharp Line Scanner
    • Season scoring: Astros 4.45 and Athletics 4.36 runs/game, or 8.81 combined.
    • Last-10 game totals average 9.1; Houston's games averaged 8.5, Oakland's 9.7.
    • Pinnacle's total rose from 8.5 to 9.5, a market move against the under.
    Ricky Pregame MLB Totals
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected total 9.1 runs; fair total line 9.0; Under 9.5 win probability 55.2%; push probability 0% (model run 8:10 PM CDT).
    • Official 1, 9 lineups and both listed starters were posted at 8:10 PM CDT; game remained scheduled 0-0 with no innings recorded.
    • Sutter Health Park carries a 130 run-factor reading; the hitter-friendly environment can overwhelm modest pitcher edges.
  4. Jack Perkins over 4.5 strikeouts2 models agree
    +96%Won

    Taken at −104 on DraftKings

    2 modelsMLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL, K’s
    Why 2 models like it
    MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL
    • 5.6 projected strikeouts from a Poisson-binomial blend; 1.1 Ks above the 4.5 line.
    • Perkins owns a 25.2% 2026 strikeout rate (131 K in 519 BF); his last five starts produced 27 K in 108 BF.
    • Houston's 21% lineup-specific vs-RHP K rate is below Perkins's baseline, so the over relies on the matchup adjustment.
    K’s
    • His last five starts averaged 5.4 strikeouts across 5.13 innings and 21.6 batters faced.
    • Projected workload is about 5.1 innings and 21-22 batters faced with no IL, rehab or pitch-limit flag.
    • Recent five-start K/9 is 9.47, below his 10.16 season mark; the last three are lower still at 7.64.
  5. Hayden Wesneski over 3.5 strikeouts2 models agree
    +68%Won

    Taken at −148 on FanDuel

    2 modelsPicks with pink pro reader, Slate K Model · Sharp Reference Layer
    Why 2 models like it
    Picks with pink pro reader
    • 7 of Wesneski's last 10 appearances cleared 3.5 strikeouts.
    • His last-five K/9 is 6.49, supporting a 70% empirical over estimate.
    • The over went 3-for-10 in his most recent three appearances, so recent form has cooled.
    Slate K Model · Sharp Reference Layer
    • The posted nine-man Athletics lineup feeds a shifted Poisson-binomial distribution at 60% for 4+ strikeouts.
    • Wesneski's last-five K/9 is 6.49, and his recent workload was only 26.33 innings across five starts.
  6. Houston Astros full-game spread −1.5
    +67%Won

    Taken at 60¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Houston Astros −1.5 is 60¢ while the stricter Astros −2.5 is 65¢; the spread ladder is inverted by 5¢.
    • Liquid anchors imply an 85% Astros win probability and 58% for over 8.5 runs.
    • The 2026 MLB empirical distribution is centered near 9 runs: 2,898 games, 9.19 mean and 9-run median.
    • The game is already live: Houston leads 1-0 in the top of the third, so late-inning state and bullpen usage can rapidly change the spread.
Show all 20 picks
  1. Game first-five total under 6.5 (first 5 innings)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 63¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Moneyline anchor prices Houston at about 60.5%; the full-game total ladder centers the fitted run environment near 9.5, 10 runs.
    • 2026 MLB empirical totals are right-skewed: 2,402 games, mean 8.96 runs, SD 4.52.
    • Applying the fitted full-game distribution to the lower-scoring first-five window puts under 6.5 near 72%, above Polymarket US's 63¢ cost.
    • A high-scoring opening frame or early command failure can clear 7 runs before bullpen effects matter.
  2. No 9th-inning draw
    +138%Won

    Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Anchors agree: Houston is priced near 60.5% to win and the full-game total centers around 9.5 runs.
    • The 9.5-run anchor implies roughly 1.06 runs per inning; a flat-rate fitted baseline puts a tied inning near 45%.
    • The 750-game reference sample is right-skewed (8.87 average, 8.5 median, 39.9% at 10+), supporting a run-rich rather than tie-heavy fit.
    • The 9th inning is a thin, high-variance rung; bullpen quality and leverage can materially alter its scoring rate.
  3. Houston Astros over 4.5 runs scored
    +67%Won

    Taken at 60¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed Astros lineup includes Yordan Alvarez (.4425 xwOBA, 180.8 wRC+) against right-hander Jack Perkins.
    • Perkins owns a 5.90 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and .309 xwOBA allowed; his last-five ERA is 5.68.
    • Houston's righty split is .3081 xwOBA, while Sutter Health Park carries a 130 run-factor reading.
    • Perkins' 4.03 xERA and 10.16 K/9 imply his surface ERA may overstate the matchup vulnerability.
  4. Total runs under 9.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    Parity DeskUp 29% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Best US book is FanDuel Under 9.5 −102 (50.5% implied); the exchange price is more favorable.
    • Pinnacle 9.5 is Over −113 / Under +101; devigged Under fair is 48.4%, with the exchange slightly better.
    • Ledger: Houston xwOBA .3081 versus RHP triggers −0.50 runs; Athletics .3165 triggers no penalty; bullpen fatigue adds 0.00.
    • Houston’s 104.8 wRC+ and a .3081 xwOBA penalty are only a modest one-team adjustment; a strong Astros start can beat the under quickly.
  5. Yordan Alvarez HRR YES 0.5Favorite
    +22%Won

    Taken at 82¢ on Kalshi

    Quiet BatUp 14% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Posted batting order 2nd; projected 4.3 PA. Versus RHP in 2026: .311 AVG, .4536 xwOBA, 499 PA.
    • Yordan's .4425 season xwOBA and Sutter Health Park's 130 run-factor support at least one hit/run/RBI.
    • preferred combined-production instrument, with the YES side carrying substantial displayed market activity.
    • The most likely loss is Yordan finishing 0-for-3/4 without a run or RBI despite the favorable environment.
  6. Hayden Wesneski over 5 strikeoutsFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 66¢ on Kalshi

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Recent Ks: 3, 2, 3, 5, 6; season 6.83 K/9, L3 5.02, L5 6.49.
    • Active listed starter with seven days' rest; quarter-Kelly is 5.1% bankroll, capped at 0.5u.
    • Lineup was captured at 6:10 PM; a late scratch or unusually efficient outing remains possible.
  7. Athletics over 4.5 team runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +112 on FanDuel

    BelloUp 7% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Athletics have scored 4.3 runs per game over their last 10; Houston has allowed a tired-pen path after Wesneski's short recent outings.
    • The posted Athletics lineup is live: Bolte, Butler, Langeliers, McNeil, Gelof and company are confirmed starters.
    • No Ghost Offense trigger: Oakland averages 4.3 and Houston 4.1 runs over the trailing 10, both above the 3.0 gate.
    • Oakland's current-season production versus right-handed pitching is modest: .246 average, .405 slugging and .3165 xwOBA.
  8. Houston Astros @ Athletics game total under 10
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Total Runs under 10 pushes at exactly 10; it wins at 9 or fewer and loses only at 11+.
    • Sharp reference pulled: Pinnacle showed under 10 −120 and under 9.5 +101, so the broader market may already recognize much of the rung difference.
  9. First-inning runs
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket

    Brewing MLB NRFI/YRFI Stat BasedUp 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Sutter Health Park carries 130 runs and 134 home-run factors; 79°F with 6 mph wind out to left.
    • Astros top four average .359 wOBA; Yordan Alvarez owns a .428 season wOBA against a right-handed starter.
    • Jack Perkins has a 5.90 ERA, .309 xwOBA allowed, and five first-inning homers allowed in 81 PA.
    • Hayden Wesneski is steadier at 3.89 xERA and .304 xwOBA allowed, muting Athletics-side scoring.
  10. Hayden Wesneski over 15.5 outs recorded
    +178%Won

    Taken at 36¢ on Polymarket US

    +EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Wesneski cleared 15.5 outs in 6 of his last 10 starts; his season workload averages 16.2 outs per start.
    • He has six days' rest and averaged 81 pitches across his last five starts; DraftKings also posts his over 14.5 outs at −142.
    • Athletics' .2139 strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching supports efficient innings rather than a short, strikeout-driven outing.
    • Four of his last 10 starts stayed below 16 outs, including two exactly at 15.
  11. Hayden Wesneski over 14.5 outs
    +62%Won

    Taken at −162 on DraftKings

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • PWP Composite Grade: 82/100 (B+); qualifies with a positive edge.
    • Wesneski cleared 14.5 outs in 9 of his last 10 starts; the only miss was a three-inning outing.
    • Recent workload: 5.0+ innings in 4 of his last 5 starts; season average is 5.4 innings per start.
    • One recent three-inning start shows genuine early-exit risk despite the otherwise stable workload.
  12. Jack Perkins 5+ strikeouts
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 16-start innings mixture plus a 23.7% matchup K/PA model gives P(5+) ≈ 0.58.
    • Perkins averaged 4.77 IP in 16 2026 starts; the model distribution is P(5+) .58, P(6+) .41, P(7+) .27, P(8+) .17.
    • The innings/rate model is estimated from only 16 starts; tail probabilities are sensitive to their correlation.
  13. Athletics spread +1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle also posts Athletics +1.5 at −112. This corroborates the spread side, not a ProphetX placement price.
    • Personnel gate passed: Hayden Wesneski and Jack Perkins were both posted at 6:00 PM PDT; the 6:00 PM lineup has 18 starters and no game-specific injury signal.
    • ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-09-26T18:06:16-07:00. Reference context: Sutter Health Park run factor 130; 79°F, 6-mph wind out to left.
    • LEAN only: 6.14x is below the 10x recommended threshold.
  14. Houston Astros F5 to win (first 5 innings)
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Five FramesUp 9% over 37 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Full coverage: both starters posted, probables fresh, both 1, 9 lineups captured; current L5 profiles show Wesneski 26.33 IP and Perkins 25.67 IP.
    • Gone-by-six fires for Houston: home Jack Perkins WHIP L5 1.32 exceeds the 1.30 threshold; he averages 5.13 L5 innings/start.
    • Aligned starter read: Wesneski WHIP L5 1.06 and ERA L5 2.73 versus Perkins 1.32 and 3.16; Houston's top three include Yordan Alvarez (.4425 xwOBA).
    • Kalshi has no sharp F5 reference; the 56% fair estimate is an independent starter-plus-lineup read, not a Pinnacle line.

Questions

Who won Astros vs. Athletics?

The Astros won 13-2 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.

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