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FinalUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Padres88-70
4-2
Dodgers97-61
Score by period
Team123456789T
SD0000013004
LAD0000000112

Top model pick, graded

Won

San Diego Padres F5 spread +1.5 (first 5 innings) 64¢

Why Opening Frame likes it: Model F5 means are Dodgers 2.71 and Padres 2.26; a run-differential model makes Padres +1.5 fair at 68%.

Opening FrameUp 1% return this season · 121 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 16-14 on this game · −2% return

  1. Tyler Glasnow over 6.5 strikeouts5 models agree
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi

    5 modelsMLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL, Señor Strikeouts +3
    Why 5 models like it
    MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL
    • 38 strikeouts across his last five starts; 91.8 pitches and 23.2 batters faced per start.
    • Confirmed nine-man Padres lineup averages 24.2% strikeouts versus right-handed pitching; only one hitter has under 60 PA.
    • Will Little is assigned, but the pitcher-umpire fit fields are unpublished; model applies zero umpire adjustment and conviction is capped at medium.
    Señor Strikeouts
    • Glasnow is at 14.06 K/9 over his last three starts and 12.21 K/9 over his last five.
    • He has recorded 10, 7, and 8 strikeouts in his last three starts; five days' rest is confirmed.
    • Glasnow averages 5.64 innings per start this season, so seven strikeouts still depends on adequate workload.
    Picks with pink pro reader
    • Model: 70% over versus FanDuel −140 implied 58.3% (11.7-point margin).
    • Glasnow cleared 6.5 Ks in 7 of his last 10 starts, averaging 7.2 strikeouts.
    • He failed to reach seven strikeouts in three of those 10 starts, including two six-K outings.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Estimated fair probability 64.5% versus FanDuel −140 break-even 58.3%: +6.2 percentage points.
    • Glasnow owns an 11.57 K/9 season rate, 12.21 K/9 over his last five, and 88.17 pitches per start.
    • Glasnow's recent strikeout outcomes include 6, and his season includes abbreviated 1- and 4-inning starts.
  2. Los Angeles Dodgers to win4 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −170 on BetMGM

    4 modelsMLB ML Deep Dive, Selective Pressure +2
    Why 4 models like it
    MLB ML Deep Dive
    • Fair probability 64.5%, fair line approximately −183 versus BetMGM's −170.
    • Dodgers are 97-61 with a +196 run differential and 51-29 home record; Padres are 88-70.
    • Dodgers bullpen has logged 11.0 innings and 182 pitches over three days, with two back-to-back relievers flagged.
    Selective Pressure
    • Confirmed Tyler Glasnow: 3.46 ERA, 11.57 K/9 and 2.94 xERA; his recent starts supplied more length than Pivetta's.
    • Dodgers lead Padres in 2026 versus-right-handed-pitcher xwOBA, .3386 to .3211.
    • Both teams are 7-2 across the inspected nine-game window, so recent form adds little separation.
    Deep Book
    • Dodgers −1 carries $1,723 versus Padres +1 at $501; run-line flow agrees with the moneyline.
    • Pinnacle is −163; Glasnow's expected ERA is 2.94 versus Pivetta's 3.30.
    • Dodgers bullpen logged 11.0 innings and 182 pitches over three days; two relievers are on back-to-back days.
    Undertow
    • Signal decay is 1.5% for the freshest qualifying Dodgers position; neither tracked position is on both outcomes.
    • Confirmed lineup and starters: Tyler Glasnow faces Nick Pivetta; Dodgers post a .3386 xwOBA versus right-handers.
    • Glasnow's listed 3.46 ERA and Pivetta's 3.30 ERA make the starting-pitching gap modest.
  3. Nick Pivetta under 4.5 strikeouts2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on BetMGM

    2 modelsK-Zone Fade, K’s
    Why 2 models like it
    K-Zone Fade
    • Pivetta's K/9 has fallen to 7.07 over his last three starts from 10.50 for the season.
    • The L3 sample is only 14 innings, and Pivetta still owns a 10.50 season K/9.
    K’s
    • 20.4% K rate over his last three starts (11 Ks/54 BF) versus 29.2% season-to-date.
    • 20.5% season whiff rate and 27.9% CSW rate; his 54.6% fastball carries only an 18.7% whiff rate.
    • Pivetta's last-five sample is 23 Ks in 83 BF (27.7%), so the three-start dip may be noisy.
  4. San Diego Padres F5 spread +1.5 (first 5 innings)
    +56%Won

    Taken at 64¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model F5 means are Dodgers 2.71 and Padres 2.26; a run-differential model makes Padres +1.5 fair at 68%.
    • Pivetta L5: 2.04 ERA and 0.77 WHIP; Glasnow L5: 4.50 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, supporting a close early margin.
    • Pivetta averaged 22.0 L5 innings over five starts, 4.4 per start; below the 4.7 workload marker, so this is downgraded from Tier 1.
  5. San Diego Padres F5 winner (first 5 innings)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 33¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full tier coverage: both starters posted and non-stale; both 1-9 lineups captured; both starters have L5 logs.
    • Nick Pivetta's F5-board L5 is 2.04 ERA and 0.77 WHIP versus Tyler Glasnow's 4.50 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.
    • Padres F5 offense is 2.49 runs per game, while Dodgers F5 runs allowed are 2.55.
    • Pivetta has 22.0 L5 innings, 4.4 per start, below the 4.7 workload threshold; that downgrades this to Tier 2.
  6. San Diego Padres first-five spread +1.5 (first 5 innings)Favorite
    +37%Won

    Taken at 73¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Fitted board view: Dodgers are about 59% to win outright while the 6.5-run anchor favors a low-scoring game.
    • Game is 0-0 entering the top of the third, with Glasnow and Pivetta still the live starters; three F5 innings remain.
    • 2026 MLB scoring is right-skewed but low-anchor context matters: median total 8, mean 8.95; this game is being priced materially below that baseline.
    • One crooked inning, defensive error, or pitcher injury can create the two-run deficit this bet needs to avoid.
Show all 22 picks
  1. Los Angeles Dodgers team total over 3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Anchors agree: Dodgers win probability is about 61.2% from the 0.61 home quote, matching Pinnacle's −162 reference.
    • Combining that total with the home-win anchor allocates roughly 4.5 Dodgers runs and 3.9 Padres runs; 4+ Dodgers runs grades above the venue's 59¢.
    • 2026 MLB empirical shape: 2,867 games averaged 9.18 runs, median 9, and 58.4% cleared 7.5; this is an anchor-calibrated coherence read, not a team projection.
    • The team-run split is not uniquely identified by a moneyline and total; close low-scoring games would lower the 4+ probability.
  2. Los Angeles Dodgers over 4.5 runs scored
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Posted lineup has Ohtani, Freeman, Tucker, Muncy and Feduccia batting left-handed versus verified righty Nick Pivetta, plus switch-hitter Tommy Edman.
    • Dodgers vs right-handers: .3386 team xwOBA; Padres: .3211. Pivetta's .3074 xwOBA allowed is higher than Glasnow's .266.
    • The one-run mismatch does not prove the Dodgers rung is the stale leg; the game-total or Padres rung could be wrong instead.
  3. Teoscar Hernández hits NO 0.5
    +163%Won

    Taken at 38¢ on Kalshi

    Quiet BatUp 14% last 30 days
  4. Mookie Betts RBIs over 0.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 34¢ on Kalshi

    Quiet BatUp 14% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Posted lineup has Betts batting 2nd: projected 4.3 PA, with high-OBP leadoff hitter Shohei Ohtani ahead of him.
    • Season RBI baseline 68/512 PA gives 45.9% at 4.3 PA; matchup/park shading produces model 38%.
    • Dodger Stadium park factor is 96 for runs, suppressing the RBI environment.
  5. Xander Bogaerts under 0.5 RBIsFavoriteHigh conviction
    +27%Won

    Taken at −373 on DraftKings

    Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 9 of Xander Bogaerts' last 10 games finished with zero RBI (90% hit rate).
    • Confirmed starter batting sixth for San Diego.
    • Bogaerts owns a .222 average and .348 slugging versus right-handed pitching over 438 PA.
    • One hit with runners in scoring position can beat a low RBI line immediately.
  6. San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers total runs over 7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −117 on DraftKings

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: 8.1 projected runs; fair total 8.0; win 56%; push 0%; run 8:40 PM CDT; first pitch 9:10 PM CDT.
    • Dodgers and Padres posted lineups rate .339 and .321 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching.
    • Open roof, 82°F, and 7-mph wind out to right field add modest run-environment support.
    • Glasnow and Pivetta both allow only .266/.265 xwOBA this season with 11.57/10.50 K/9.
  7. Nick Pivetta 5+ strikeouts: No
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection: 4.0 Ks; 69.3 recent pitches/start implies 4.33 projected IP.
    • Confirmed Dodgers lineup is contact-heavy versus right-handers: 20.4% K rate (641 strikeouts in 3,143 PA).
    • Pivetta’s last four starts: 76, 69, 63, 46 pitches; strikeouts 4, 5, 2, 4, no verified YES leash.
    • Pivetta still owns a 10.5 K/9 season mark and 27.8% strikeout rate versus right-handed batters.
  8. Game first-five total under 3.5 (first 5 innings)
    +138%Won

    Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket

    Loose Cohort MLBUp 5% last 30 days
  9. Game total runs under 7.5
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Under 7.5 wins at exactly 7 runs; under 7 only pushes; exact contract matches.
    • ProphetX under 7.5 is +109 (47.85c); adjacent under 7 is +142 (41.32c).
    • Quote-implied rung gap is 6.53 points, about 5.79 points below the observed exact-7 mass.
    • Under 7.5 loses at 8 or more runs; one late scoring swing decides the contract.
  10. Los Angeles Dodgers −1.5 run line
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dodgers −1.5 wins only by 2+ runs; adjacent Dodgers −1 pushes on an exact one-run home win, while this leg cannot push.
    • The independent reference gap is only six American-price points; the exchange quote may move before publication or grading.
  11. Game total under 7.5 runs
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    Selective PressureUp 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Own blended estimate: 53% for under 7.5, about 5 points above Kalshi’s 48¢ under cost.
    • Nick Pivetta and Tyler Glasnow both show strong season contact-quality marks: .265-.266 xwOBA allowed.
    • The starters bring 10.50 and 11.57 K/9, supporting empty-base innings and fewer balls in play.
    • Both bullpens are heavily worked over three days: San Diego 160 pitches and Los Angeles 182.
  12. Jake Cronenworth over 0.5 hits
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model: 62% for a hit versus DraftKings −113 implied 53.1% (8.9-point margin).
    • Cronenworth recorded a hit in 8 of his last 10 games, with 14 hits in that span.
    • He is confirmed active and batting seventh in the posted Padres lineup, averaging 4.2 plate appearances over his last 10.
    • Cronenworth's 2026 split versus right-handed pitching is only .217 (61-for-281), so the matchup split itself is not favorable.
  13. San Diego Padres run line +1.5
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Glasnow's recent ERA is 4.50 over five starts versus 3.46 season ERA; his TTO2 K rate falls from 45.2% to 34% TTO3 and 30.7% TTO4.
    • Padres versus right-handers clear the platoon gate: .3211 xwOBA, .2124 K rate, with 4,614 plate appearances.
    • Pinnacle showed Padres +1.5 at −146; ProphetX −142 is four cents better, while the profile, not payout, drives the position.
    • Glasnow's 2.94 xERA, 2.98 xFIP, 32.6% CSW rate, and 95.58 mph fastball remain strong underlying indicators.
  14. First-inning runs: No
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • posted top threes are Ohtani, Betts, Freeman and Tatis Jr., Dustin Harris, Machado; no lineup inference.
    • Pivetta's 2026 first-inning sample allowed 3 hits plus 3 walks in 27 PA; Glasnow allowed 9 hits plus 5 walks in 50 PA.
    • Kalshi raw yes_ask 0.47 and yes_bid 0.46 are probability fractions, equal to 47¢/46¢; NO costs 54¢ from 1−0.46.
    • Glasnow's first-inning H+BB rate is 28%, and either elite top order can score on one mistake.
  15. Mookie Betts over 1.5 total bases
    +137%Won

    Taken at +137 on DraftKings

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2.8 total bases per game across his last 10; 86.7% above the 1.5 threshold.
    • Betts exceeded 1.5 total bases in 6 of those 10 games.
    • His .4633 slugging percentage versus right-handers and second-place lineup slot support opportunity.
    • Ten games is a small sample, and the 6-of-10 hit rate leaves substantial variance.
  16. San Diego Padres +1.5
    +64%Won

    Taken at 61¢ on Polymarket US

    UndertowUp 2% over 123 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Signal decay is 3.4%, inside the brief’s live threshold.
    • Global Dodgers −1.5 market maps directly to Polymarket US Padres +1.5; US quotes both sides, Padres at 0.61 and Dodgers at 0.40.
    • The game is confirmed live at 0-0 in the second inning, with Glasnow and Pivetta verified as the starters.
    • The game is already live, so the price can move faster than this read and early score state is noisy.

Questions

Who won Padres vs. Dodgers?

The Padres won 4-2 on Thursday, Sep 24, 2026.

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