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FinalPetco Park
Diamondbacks85-74
11-4
Padres89-70
Score by period
Team123456789T
ARI31210310011
SD0200001104

Top model pick, graded

Won

Arizona Diamondbacks to win +111

Why Brewing MLB Ml likes it: Bullpen Model B favors Arizona: San Diego logged 14.0 innings and 218 pitches over three days versus Arizona's 8.67 innings and 145 pitches.

Brewing MLB MlUp 27% return this season · 70 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 25-7 on this game · +63% return

  1. Casey Mize under 3.5 strikeouts4 models agree
    +120%Won

    Taken at +120 on BetMGM

    4 modelsK-Zone Fade, Shawn's K-Floor Staircase +2
    Why 4 models like it
    K-Zone Fade
    • Mize's L3 K/9 is 5.93 versus 7.70 for the season, a 23% recent decline.
    • L3 workload is 239 pitches across three starts, about 79.7 per start, below the 88-pitch hook threshold.
    • A normal 5-to-6-inning outing or a few two-strike misses can still produce four or more Ks.
    Shawn's K-Floor Staircase
    • Confirmed Arizona lineup projects to an 18.7% K rate versus a right-handed pitcher across 2,858 lineup PA.
    • Mize has 14 Ks in his last five starts and 27 in his last ten; L5 K/9 is 5.56 versus 7.70 for the season.
    • TTO3 K rate is 21.1% versus 26.4% in TTO1, only a 5.3-point decline; there is no verified extreme third-trip collapse.
    Señor Strikeouts
    • Mize's K/9 fell to 5.93 over his last three and 5.56 over his last five starts.
    • He recorded 2, 0, and 7 strikeouts in his last three starts; the 7-K outing required 90 pitches.
    • Mize's season K/9 is 7.70, materially better than his recent-form figures.
    Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    • Last five starts: 2.8 strikeouts per start, 20% below the 3.5 line.
    • Mize stayed under 3.5 in 3 of his last 5 starts.
    • Two of the last five starts cleared 3.5, including a seven-strikeout outing.
  2. Brandon Pfaadt over 15.5 outs recorded3 models agree
    +95%Won

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    3 modelsMLB Pitcher Outs Recorded Model, Bello +1
    Why 3 models like it
    MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded Model
    • Projected 18.0 outs; modeled 68% probability of 16+ versus the 15.5 line.
    • Pfaadt cleared 15.5 in 4 of his last 5 starts; recent average was 18.0 outs and 89.2 pitches.
    • Pfaadt's full-season record is only 15 of 27 starts over 15.5, so the recent workload surge may regress.
    Bello
    • Pfaadt's last three starts average 17.33 outs (5.78 IP); his 2026 baseline is 5.94 IP/start.
    • Rolling workload is 256 pitches over 17.33 IP: 14.77 P/IP, well below the 17.5 decay trigger.
    • His latest start lasted only 13 outs, so one repeat of that short outing loses.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • 14 of Pfaadt's 17 2026 starts cleared 15.5 outs.
    • Last 10 starts averaged 6.33 innings and 91.1 pitches.
    • San Diego's projected lineup owns a .3209 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching.
  3. Arizona Diamondbacks to win2 models agree
    +111%Won

    Taken at +111 on DraftKings

    2 modelsBrewing MLB Ml, Selective Pressure
    Why 2 models like it
    Brewing MLB Ml
    • Bullpen Model B favors Arizona: San Diego logged 14.0 innings and 218 pitches over three days versus Arizona's 8.67 innings and 145 pitches.
    • Both starters are confirmed: Brandon Pfaadt and Casey Mize; the model treats the near-even rotation matchup as secondary to the late-inning availability gap.
    • Mize owns the better expected ERA, 3.73 versus Pfaadt's 3.86, and the higher season K/9, 7.70 versus 6.33.
    Selective Pressure
    • Pfaadt: 3.75 season ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 4.80 ERA over his last five starts.
    • Mize has a 6.35 last-five ERA against Pfaadt's 4.80 in the same warehouse snapshot.
    • San Diego has the stronger full-season record, 89-70 versus Arizona's 85-74, plus home field.
  4. Game total under 7.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsHouse Rules, Undertow
    Why 2 models like it
    House Rules
    • Under 7.5 wins on exactly seven runs; under 7 pushes and therefore does not capture that win.
    • ProphetX prices under 7.5 at 49.02c versus under 7 at 42.74c: only a 6.28-point gap.
    • A total of eight or more loses the half-point under outright; there is no push protection.
    Undertow
    • Signal decay is 1%, comfortably inside Undertow's 5% live threshold.
    • Global full-game 7.5 direction maps cleanly to the Polymarket US full-game total contract.
    • A home run or early crooked inning can beat a low total before bullpen quality matters.
  5. Fernando Tatis Jr. over 0.5 hitsFavorite2 models agree
    +43%Won

    Taken at 70¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsPicks with pink pro reader, Picks With Pink Grading System
    Why 2 models like it
    Picks with pink pro reader
    • Tatis recorded a hit in 9 of his last 10 games, with 12 hits in that span.
    • Confirmed leadoff starter on MLB's current lineup page; Arizona starter Brandon Pfaadt is confirmed at 6.33 K/9.
    • A hit prop can lose in four or five plate appearances despite strong recent form.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • PWP grade 72/100: qualifies as a Grade B play with medium conviction.
    • L10 hit rate is 9/10 (90%); L5 hit rate is 5/5 (100%).
    • Career matchup sample versus Brandon Pfaadt is unfavorable: 6 hits in 33 plate appearances (18.2%).
  6. Arizona Diamondbacks F5 winner (first 5 innings)
    +150%Won

    Taken at 40¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pfaadt L5 WHIP 1.27 vs Mize 1.68; L5 ERA 4.80 vs 6.35 favors Arizona.
    • Gone-by-six signal fires: home Mize WHIP L5 1.68 and ERA L5 6.35 favor the away side.
    • Top-two lineup xwOBA is .224 for San Diego versus Pfaadt and .300 for Arizona versus Mize; Arizona team xwOBA vs RHP is .328 vs San Diego .326.
    • Mize's 22.67 L5 innings equal 4.53 per start, below the 4.7 workload threshold and forcing Tier 2 rather than Tier 1.
Show all 24 picks
  1. Arizona Diamondbacks/San Diego Padres F5 total over 4.5 (first 5 innings)
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model mean is 5.03 F5 runs: Arizona 2.46 plus San Diego 2.57; Poisson fair over 4.5 is 56.5%.
    • Both L5 starter reads support runs: Mize 6.35 ERA/1.68 WHIP; Pfaadt 4.80 ERA/1.27 WHIP.
    • All 18 lineup spots were captured at 4:20 PM; top-three xwOBA is .347 Arizona and .341 San Diego, with team-vs-R xwOBA .3281/.3262.
    • Pfaadt's 1.27 L5 WHIP and six-inning L5 workload can suppress Arizona's contribution.
  2. Any run in the 1st inning
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Moneyline anchor implies roughly 53.5% Padres win probability; the full-game total ladder centers near 7.5 runs.
    • 2025-26 MLB scoring checked: 8.9-run average, 8-run median, 12-run 75th percentile; the fitted shape is right-skewed.
    • That anchored environment implies roughly 0.8 first-inning runs and about 52, 55% any-run probability after starter suppression.
    • A scoreless first inning loses immediately despite the fitted rate; one inning has substantial variance.
  3. No 8th-inning draw
    +150%Won

    Taken at 40¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket US quotes the 8th-inning draw YES at 65¢ but NO at only 40¢, a wide rung-level disagreement.
    • Liquid anchors imply a modest Padres edge (~53%) and a near-balanced 7.5-run total (~51.5% over).
    • The 2026 MLB total-run sample is right-skewed (mean 8.94, median 8); fitting the anchor near 7.5-8 runs gives roughly 50% draw probability per flat inning baseline.
    • The flat-rate conversion from a full-game total to one inning is approximate; scoring is not independent across innings.
  4. San Diego Padres under 4.5 runs
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • San Diego has 2 runs after two innings, leaving only two additional runs for this under to lose.
    • Padres versus right-handed pitching carry a .3209 xwOBA over 4,645 PA; this is not a weak split.
  5. Game total over 7.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    Alex's Sharp Line ScannerUp 28% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Arizona and San Diego score 4.51 and 4.40 runs per game this season, 8.91 combined.
    • Both confirmed lineups posted at 5:50 PM; all 18 starter slots were populated.
    • Bullpens carried 14.0 and 8.67 innings over the last three days, adding late-inning volatility.
    • Mize and Pfaadt xERAs are 3.73 and 3.86; clean starts can strand this at seven or fewer.
  6. Total runs over 7.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    Parity DeskUp 29% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • San Diego bullpen: 14.0 IP over three days and 3 consecutive-day relievers; ledger adds +0.40 runs to Arizona's offense.
    • No platoon penalty: Arizona xwOBA versus RHP is .3121 and San Diego's is .3209; both teams exceed .310.
    • Casey Mize xFIP is 4.42 versus Brandon Pfaadt's 4.33, a close matchup with no meaningful pitching-led total boost.
  7. Brandon Pfaadt over 3.5 strikeouts
    +77%Won

    Taken at −130 on FanDuel

    MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODELUp 24% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected mean 4.8 Ks; simulated over-3.5 probability approximately 69%.
    • Confirmed Padres lineup carries a 20.1% K rate versus right-handed pitching; all nine hitters have at least 60 PA.
    • Pfaadt has 17 starts, 86 Ks in 505 batters faced, and a five-start workload of 89.2 pitches per start.
    • Pfaadt's last five starts produced only 3.6 Ks per game, below the projection.
  8. Nolan Arenado RBIs YES 0.5Long shot
    +245%Won

    Taken at 29¢ on Kalshi

    Quiet BatUp 14% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Arenado bats sixth: projected 3.6 PA, five hitters precede him; 81 RBI in 584 season PA (13.9%).
    • San Diego's bullpen has logged 10.0 IP and 152 pitches over three days, improving late-inning RBI opportunity.
    • Vs R: .2415 AVG and .2885 xwOBA over 426 PA; Casey Mize posts 27.1% CSW, 8.40 K/9 and 3.73 xERA.
  9. Corbin Carroll hits over 0.5
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi

    Quiet BatUp 14% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full coverage: posted lineup, batting fifth, projected 4.3 PA, and 447 PA versus right-handed pitching with 80 hits (.179 hits/PA).
    • A fifth-place hitter projects for 4.3 PA; one clean early ball in play loses the contract.
  10. 2nd-inning draw
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 61¢ on Polymarket US

    Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • second-inning draw is 0.61; innings 1, 5 draws are 0.58, 0.61, 0.60, 0.59, 0.59.
    • Those five three-way prices normalize to roughly 40% cumulative F5-tie probability; the F5 draw contract is only 0.17.
    • F5 winner prices San Diego 0.45 / Arizona 0.38 / draw 0.17 conflict with the early-inning ladder.
    • Five-inning aggregation assumes weak dependence and misses multi-run inning cancellation.
  11. Game total runs over 7.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected total runs 7.8, fair total line 7.5, win probability 54.5%, push probability 0%; release 8:10 PM CDT.
    • Arizona .3281 and San Diego .3262 team xwOBA versus right-handed pitching support above-average contact quality.
    • Bullpens have absorbed 10.0 IP/152 pitches (San Diego) and 6.67 IP/125 pitches (Arizona) over the past three days.
    • Petco Park carries a 0.90 run factor, and the 10-mph left-to-right wind is not a clear offensive boost.
  12. Full-game total under 7.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on FanDuel

    Shawn’s Park & Weather Totals EngineUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model projects 7.35 total runs; Poisson under-7.5 probability 54.6% versus 49.5% devigged Pinnacle baseline.
    • Petco Park suppresses scoring: 0.90 run factor and 0.93 HR factor; elevation is only 23 feet.
    • Clear, 75°F, open-air conditions with 10 mph left-to-right wind do not trigger the 12 mph wind-out HR multiplier.
    • Marine-layer boost is not activated: current-log WHIP estimates combine to about 1.13, above the 1.12 gate.
  13. Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5
    +56%Won

    Taken at 64¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Arizona +1.5 wins when San Diego wins by exactly one; Arizona +1 only pushes in that outcome.
    • ProphetX prices +1.5 at 64.29c versus +1 at 56.52c: only a 7.77-point gap.
    • Forecast and team-strength shading can also explain the adjacent-line price gap.
  14. MLB game total over 7.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pfaadt's recent ERA is 5.19 (L3) and 4.80 (L5) versus 3.75 season ERA; Mize is 6.59/6.35 versus 3.96.
    • Mize's recent fastball readings (92.31, 92.49 mph) sit below his 93.34-mph season profile; both starters carry season xFIPs above 4.30.
    • San Diego's bullpen has thrown 218 pitches in three days with three back-to-back arms, increasing late scoring risk.
    • Petco Park's 90 run factor and clear 75°F conditions suppress the environment.
  15. San Diego Padres to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pfaadt's current profile: 5.19 ERA over his last 3 starts and 4.80 over his last 5 versus a 3.75 season ERA; recent K/9 is 5.40 over five.
    • San Diego versus right-handed pitching: .3209 xwOBA and .2118 K rate, both clearing the platoon gate against Pfaadt's right-handedness.
    • Pfaadt's full-season xERA is 3.86 and his season ERA is 3.75, so the recent deterioration may regress.
  16. First-inning runs over 0.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed lineups: Arizona's top four average .342 xwOBA versus right-handers; San Diego's top four average .337.
    • First-inning samples are only 69 and 97 PA; the HR and walk components are noisy.
  17. San Diego Padres run line −2.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 27¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle Padres moneyline −120; Padres are 89-70 versus Arizona 85-74.
    • ProphetX spread board as_of_pt 2026-09-25T16:12:03-07:00; 1-leg ticket, no parlay tax.
    • Most likely loss: Padres win by one or two; −2.5 requires a three-run margin.
  18. Arizona Diamondbacks/San Diego Padres total runs over 8.5
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle over 7.5 is −108. The sharp line is lower, but direction is over.
    • MLB context: San Diego bullpen logged 218 pitches in three days, with three relievers on back-to-back days; Brennan Miller's average total is 8.86 runs.
    • The main 8.0 rung is less directional: over has $2,905 versus $2,069 under; the 8.5 imbalance may be rung-specific.

Questions

Who won Diamondbacks vs. Padres?

The Diamondbacks won 11-4 on Friday, Sep 25, 2026.

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