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Updated

FinalRate Field
Rockies57-102
1-6
White Sox82-77
Score by period
Team123456789T
COL0100000001
CHW20100012-6

Top model pick, graded

Won

No 2nd-inning draw 44¢

Why Ledger Balance likes it: Full-game total anchor is 8.5 runs, with Polymarket US normalized near 47% over / 53% under; the anchors are mutually coherent.

Ledger BalanceDown 2% this season · 543 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 9-14 on this game · −29% return

  1. Chicago White Sox over 4.5 team runs2 models agree
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsOne Side of the Board, Bello
    Why 2 models like it
    One Side of the Board
    • Kalshi's 8.5 game-total rung contrasts with CWS 4.5 plus COL 2.5, a 1.5-run split drift.
    • CWS over 4.5 is 52c to buy; raw Kalshi mid 0.52 is a probability fraction, equal to 51.5c.
    • CWS versus right-handed pitching is only .312 team xwOBA across 4,239 plate appearances.
    Bello
    • Chicago scored 73 runs in its previous 10 games, 7.3 per game, clearing 4.5 in seven of those ten.
    • Sugano's 5.49 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and .381 xwOBA against create a concrete traffic path.
    • Chicago's full-season scoring rate is 4.78 runs/game, so the recent 7.3 pace can regress.
  2. Sean Burke under 5.5 strikeouts2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +140 on FanDuel

    2 modelsPicks with pink pro reader, Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    Why 2 models like it
    Picks with pink pro reader
    • +140 implies 41.7%; model estimates 57% for 5 or fewer strikeouts, a 15.3-point value margin.
    • Burke stayed under 5.5 Ks in 7 of his last 10 starts.
    • His 9.59 season K/9 and a six-inning workload can still produce six-plus strikeouts.
    Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    • Burke averaged 4.0 strikeouts across his last five starts, 27.3% below the 5.5 line.
    • His recent 8.18 K/9 is 14.7% below his 2026 9.59 K/9.
    • Colorado’s lineup can expand the zone if Burke gets ahead early.
  3. Colorado Rockies to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +205 on FanDuel

    Ricky MLB Moneyline QuantUp 86% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Chicago's Sean Burke owns a 3.40 ERA, 9.59 K/9 and 3.86 xERA; Colorado's Tomoyuki Sugano has a 5.49 ERA and 6.50 xERA.
    • Colorado's confirmed lineup has a .318 team xwOBA and .423 SLG versus right-handed pitching; Chicago is at .312 xwOBA and .396 SLG.
    • Colorado's bullpen has logged 129 pitches over three days versus Chicago's 191, a late-inning availability edge.
    • Burke is the materially better starter and has a 9.0 K/9 over his last three starts, creating a high-strikeout path to a Chicago win.
  4. Colorado Rockies F5 total over 4.5 (first 5 innings)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Both posted starters have aligned recent run-prevention risk: Sugano ERA L5 7.27 and Burke ERA L5 5.73.
    • F5 board blend is 5.92 runs before conservative shrink: COL 2.56 offense/CWS 2.73 allowed, CWS 2.92 offense/COL 3.62 allowed; model mean 5.0.
    • Top-three lineups are captured 1-9; CWS xwOBA .343/.305/.380 and COL .325/.263/.320, with 62F conditions and 9.03 umpire run average.
    • Park factor 98 and 8.5 full-game total can pull the first-five run mean below the conservative 5.0 estimate.
  5. No 2nd-inning draw
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full-game total anchor is 8.5 runs, with Polymarket US normalized near 47% over / 53% under; the anchors are mutually coherent.
    • Using the anchor-implied ~8.5-run environment and the 2026 empirical total shape (2,872 games; 9.18 average, 4.74 SD), a flat per-inning baseline puts a draw around 47, 49%, so no-draw around 51, 53%.
    • The per-inning fit is a flat-rate approximation; batting-order, starter, and handedness effects can move inning-two draw probability.
  6. Game total over 8.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +108 on FanDuel

    Rotation WatchUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Burke's last five starts: 20 K and 17 walks across 104 batters (19.2% K, 16.3% BB).
    • Sugano's last five: 20 K and 8 walks across 115 batters, with five home runs allowed.
    • Both offenses carry playable right-handed matchup contact: CWS .312 xwOBA, COL .318 xwOBA versus RHP.
    • Burke's season quality-contact profile is respectable (.231 hard-hit allowed), so he can outperform the recent command line.
Show all 21 picks
  1. CLE-CWS total over 8.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −102 on DraftKings

    Pen CheckUp 27% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model fair total 9.0; over 8.5 estimated 56% (fair about −127) versus DraftKings −102.
    • Sugano: 5.49 ERA, .381 xwOBA allowed, 6.50 xERA; last three starts carry a 6.75 ERA.
    • Burke's last three: 5.54 ERA and 1.77 WHIP; both bullpens logged 271 and 206 pitches over three days.
    • Lineups were not posted at 3:30 PM PDT; a late rest day or scratch is the biggest risk.
  2. Mickey Moniak HRR YES 0.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    Quiet BatUp 14% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Posted lineup has Moniak batting sixth: projected 3.6 PA; Rockies hitters ahead post .337/.366/.310/.390/.352 OBP.
    • Vs RHP over 342 PA: .2532 AVG, .3022 xwOBA, .2953 whiff%; Burke: 3.86 xERA, 9.59 K/9, .2831 CSW.
    • DraftKings devigged references: hit 50%, run 32.1%, RBI 26.9%; union 75.2%, 10% correlation haircut gives DERIVED fair 67.7%.
    • Runs/RBI inputs are season-wide rates, 49/431 runs and 65/431 RBI, not split specifically against Burke.
  3. Game total runs over 8.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −102 on DraftKings

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: 9.3 projected total runs; fair total line 9.3; Over 8.5 win probability 58.5%; push probability 0%; release 6:10 PM CDT.
    • Tomoyuki Sugano carries a 6.50 xERA, .381 xwOBA allowed, and 5.27 innings per start; Sean Burke is the stronger counterweight at 3.86 xERA.
    • Chicago scores 4.78 runs per game and owns a .312 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching; both confirmed lineups were locked at 6:10 PM CDT.
    • Sean Burke's 3.62 FIP, 9.59 K/9, and .303 xwOBA allowed can suppress Colorado and leave the game short of the number.
  4. Tomoyuki Sugano strikeouts over 3.5
    +98%Won

    Taken at −102 on DraftKings

    K’sUp 9% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model projects about 4.0 Ks; over probability is roughly 56, 58% versus DraftKings −102.
    • Sugano’s recent K/9 is 6.92 over five starts and 6.75 over three, above his 5.55 season mark.
    • Removing any one recent start leaves 3.75, 4.50 average Ks, and the edge survives dropping the pitch-specific signal.
    • His five-start workload averages 5.2 IP and 88 pitches, leaving limited opportunity if traffic creates an early hook.
  5. Game total under 7.5 runs
    +122%Won

    Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket

    Loose Cohort MLBUp 5% last 30 days
  6. Chicago White Sox run line −1High conviction
    +61%Won

    Taken at 62¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • White Sox −1 pushes on an exactly one-run win; White Sox −1.5 loses that same outcome.
    • ProphetX self-reference: −1 at −166 versus adjacent −1.5 at −106; the push option is not fully reflected in the gap.
    • A one-run White Sox win only pushes; the pick loses if Chicago wins by two or more.
  7. Game total over 8.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    Selective PressureUp 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Combined season scoring is 9.43 runs per game against an 8.5-run threshold.
    • Rockies starter Tomoyuki Sugano carries a 6.50 xERA; both bullpens logged substantial three-day workloads.
    • Sean Burke's 3.86 xERA and 9.59 K/9 can suppress Colorado's offense.
  8. Kyle Teel under 1.5 total bases
    +56%Won

    Taken at −180 on DraftKings

    +EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed active, batting second, with 136 season PA and a current starting-lineup slot.
    • Teel stayed under 1.5 TB in 11 of his last 15 games; only 4 of 15 cleared the line.
    • Recent 15-game average was 1.07 total bases; estimated fair under probability is about 73% versus 64.3% break-even at −180.
    • The 15-game sample is modest, and the latest game included 5 total bases.
  9. Sean Burke under 6.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −155 on BetMGM

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • PWP Composite Grade: 76/100 (B); estimated Burke projection is about 70% under.
    • Burke stayed under 6.5 Ks in 8 of his last 10 starts and all 5 of his last 5.
    • Season-long under rate is 20 of 31 starts (64.5%), with a 5.74-K average.
    • Colorado's projected lineup is not officially posted yet; late personnel changes could alter the strikeout environment.
  10. Sean Burke 6 or more strikeouts: No
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 31-start innings prior: 5.39 IP average, 5.67 median, only 5/31 at 7+ IP; mean 89.97 pitches.
    • His season strikeout distribution is wide: 14/31 starts reached 6+, including 11/31 at 7+; one efficient outing defeats the short-start model.
  11. Chicago White Sox first-five to win (first 5 innings)Favorite
    +45%Won

    Taken at −220 on DraftKings

    The Core 6 Independent SyndicateDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Sugano: 0.38 xwOBA allowed and 6.50 xERA; his last-five ERA is 7.27.
    • Burke: 0.30 season xwOBA allowed, 3.86 xERA, and 9.59 K/9.
    • Rockies' RHP split is stronger than Chicago's, but the starting-pitcher gap materially favors Chicago through five.
    • The White Sox's RHP split is modest: .312 xwOBA and .232 batting average.
  12. No run in the 1st inning
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • lineup-specific estimate is 42% RFI, making 58% NRFI versus a 52¢ NO cost.
    • Posted top threes are confirmed: COL xwOBA vs RHP averages about .298; CWS top three average about .345, but Burke's first-inning BA allowed is .257.
    • Sugano's first-inning profile is the main YES threat: .308 BA allowed and 10 HR in 28 first-inning games; Burke allowed 2 HR in 26.
    • Sugano's 10 first-inning homers create meaningful tail risk, and Chicago's posted top three have .345 average xwOBA versus right-handers.
  13. Chicago White Sox to winFavorite
    +45%Won

    Taken at 69¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Personnel gate met. Tomoyuki Sugano and Sean Burke were both posted as probable starters at 4:00 PM PDT.
    • Most likely loss: Colorado wins outright. Moneyline has no spread protection.
  14. Miguel Vargas over 1.5 total bases
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −104 on DraftKings

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 10-game sample: 22 total bases, 2.2 per game versus the 1.5 line.
    • Vargas’s last-7 slugging is .600 versus .481 season-long, a 24.7% lift.
    • Tomoyuki Sugano carries a 5.49 ERA and .381 expected wOBA against.
    • The 10-game total-bases sample is noisy and includes several multi-base spikes.
  15. Colorado Rockies vs Chicago White Sox total over 8.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    UndertowUp 2% over 123 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Sugano carries a 5.49 ERA and 6.5 xERA; the two bullpens have thrown 30.34 innings and 477 pitches over three days.
    • Chicago starter Sean Burke owns a 3.40 ERA, 3.86 xERA, and 9.59 K/9, creating a credible low-scoring path.

Questions

Who won Rockies vs. White Sox?

The White Sox won 6-1 on Friday, Sep 25, 2026.

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