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FinalT-Mobile Park
Angels61-98
7-5
Mariners74-85
Score by period
Team123456789T
LAA1001031017
SEA0000000235

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game first-five total under 3.5 (first 5 innings) 51¢

Why Ledger Balance likes it: Liquid anchors agree: Seattle 52c / Angels 48.5c and a 6.5 full-game total imply a near-even, low-scoring game.

Ledger BalanceDown 2% this season · 543 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 13-14 on this game · +5% return

  1. Seattle Mariners to win3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −118 on FanDuel

    3 modelsBullpen Buzzards, Selective Pressure +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Bullpen Buzzards
    • FanDuel home price is −118, inside the rule's −150 to −110 short-favorite band.
    • Probables and the posted nine-man lineups were confirmed at 6:50 PM PDT; Seattle is batting last.
    • Seattle is only 74-85 while Bryce Miller's season xWoba against is .352.
    Selective Pressure
    • Seattle's season xwOBA versus left-handed pitching is .3085 versus the Angels' .3018 versus righties.
    • Over the last 30 days, Seattle's matchup split is .3079 xwOBA versus lefties; the Angels are at .2845 versus righties.
    • Reid Detmers has the stronger season line: 3.47 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 10.26 K/9 versus Bryce Miller's 3.99, 1.15 and 8.95.
    Deep Book
      • 4.7x is LEAN territory, below the 10x recommended threshold.
    • Reid Detmers over 6.5 strikeouts3 models agree
      +102%Won

      Taken at +102 on DraftKings

      3 modelsBello, Mr. Strikeouts +1
      Why 3 models like it
      Bello
      • 7.33 strikeouts per start across his last three outings (5, 8, 9); season rate is 10.26 K/9.
      • Rolling three-start workload is 17.0 IP and 288 pitches: 5.67 IP/start and 16.94 P/IP, clearing the workload gate.
      • Six-and-a-half requires seven strikeouts; early contact or elevated counts can end the outing below the number.
      Mr. Strikeouts
      • 11.65 L3 K/9 with 288 pitches across three starts projects to 6.0 IP and 7.8 Ks.
      • Last four starts: 81, 95, 112, 99 pitches; every start cleared 80 with no workload red flag.
      • The last four strikeout outputs were 5, 8, 9, and 8; one ordinary outing misses 7.
      Señor Strikeouts
      • 29.4% CSW rate and 35.8% O-Swing rate support a strong bat-missing profile.
      • Detmers is at 10.26 K/9 for 2026, with 11.65 K/9 over his last three and 9.60 over his last five.
      • The last five starts include only three games over this line, including a two-strikeout outlier.
    • Bryce Miller under 6.5 strikeouts2 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −154 on FanDuel

      2 modelsMLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL, +EV Volume Handicapper
      Why 2 models like it
      MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL
      • Model projects 5.6 strikeouts from roughly 21.5 expected batters faced and a regressed 25, 26% K probability.
      • Miller's last five starts totaled 23.0 innings and 433 pitches; the recent workload profile supports a sub-6.5 distribution.
      • The Angels' confirmed lineup has a high 26.4% K rate versus right-handers, creating meaningful over-tail risk.
      +EV Volume Handicapper
      • 10-start baseline: 4.1 strikeouts, with 10 of 10 starts staying below 6.5.
      • Last five starts averaged 5.0 strikeouts; all five stayed below the line.
      • A high-strikeout outing can clear 6.5 even with Miller's recent workload decline.
    • Game first-five total under 3.5 (first 5 innings)
      +96%Won

      Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

      Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Liquid anchors agree: Seattle 52c / Angels 48.5c and a 6.5 full-game total imply a near-even, low-scoring game.
      • 2026 MLB finals show an 8-run median and 8.94-run mean; this matchup's 6.5 anchor is a materially lower scoring environment.
      • A flat half-game split is 3.25 runs; stronger first-five starter conditions support a lower F5 center than that baseline.
      • Four or more early runs defeats the position; baseball scoring remains wide-tailed even in a 6.5 game.
    • No 9th-inning draw
      +223%Won

      Taken at 31¢ on Polymarket US

      Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Anchors imply Seattle near 52% and a 6.5-run environment; Pinnacle independently shows Seattle −111 and 6.5, so the guard passes.
      • T-Mobile Park historical sample: 328 games, 7.78 mean, 7 median, 13-run 90th percentile; the fit respects MLB's right-skew rather than assuming symmetry.
      • A 6.5-run fit distributes about 0.72 runs per inning; a balanced inning model gives roughly 55% draw and 45% no-draw.
      • A flat 0.72-run inning rate ignores bullpen quality, leverage, and ninth-inning game state.
    • Total runs under 6.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

      Parity DeskUp 29% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Pinnacle 6.5 is Over −110 / Under −102; devigged Under fair is 49.1%.
      • LAA platoon xwOBA .3018 vs R: −0.50 runs; SEA .3085 vs L: −0.50 runs.
      • SEA bullpen logged 13.67 IP/3d: +0.40 runs to LAA offense; Partial cap yields LAA −0.10, SEA −0.40.
      • Seattle bullpen fatigue is the clearest loss path; seven or more runs beats the Under 6.5.
    Show all 22 picks
    1. Bryce Teodosio under 0.5 RBIFavoriteHigh conviction
      +14%Won

      Taken at −740 on DraftKings

      Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • −740 DraftKings price clears the −300 to −1000 chalk gate.
      • Teodosio stayed under 0.5 RBI in 9 of his last 10 games.
      • His 2026 .0769 average versus right-handers is 68% below the .2429 league split average.
      • One RBI opportunity or a bases-clearing hit can beat the under quickly.
    2. Los Angeles Angels first-five to win (first 5 innings)
      +150%Won

      Taken at 40¢ on Kalshi

      PuddinsPOP F5 MLBUp 24% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Detmers: 3.24 xERA, .279 xwOBA allowed, and 1.04 WHIP versus Miller's 3.65, .295, and 1.15.
      • Detmers' last-five-start line is 2.70 ERA/1.00 WHIP; Miller's is 5.09 ERA/1.61 WHIP.
      • Detmers averages 92.7 pitches and 5.77 innings; Miller averages 85.5 pitches and 5.38 innings.
      • Seattle's top five and its season split versus lefties are stronger: .340 top-five xwOBA and .3085 team xwOBA.
    3. Los Angeles Angels 6th-inning winnerLong shot
      +335%Won

      Taken at 23¢ on Polymarket US

      Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • F5 prices Seattle 0.42 vs Los Angeles 0.40 and full-game Seattle near 0.52, yet sixth-inning prices normalize to Los Angeles 0.21 vs Seattle 0.19.
      • The sixth is the transition point: Detmers averages 5.77 innings and Miller 5.38, making Seattle more likely to expose its bullpen first.
      • Seattle's bullpen has 8 appearances, 8.67 innings and 135 pitches over three days versus Los Angeles at 7, 8.00 and 116.
      • The directional gap is only about 1.8 percentage points after normalizing the three quoted outcomes; variance dominates.
    4. Game total runs over 6.5
      +87%Won

      Taken at −115 on FanDuel

      Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected 7.6 total runs; fair total line 7.5; Over 6.5 win probability 60.4%; push probability 0%; released 8:40 PM CDT, first pitch 9:10 PM CDT.
      • Market comparison: FanDuel −115 implies 53.5% before considering any model adjustment; the simulation clears that by 6.9 percentage points.
      • Bullpen workload: Seattle logged 18.33 innings/308 pitches and Los Angeles 21.0 innings/368 pitches over the prior three days.
      • Reid Detmers owns a 3.24 xERA and 0.28 xwOBA allowed; a deep, efficient start can keep Seattle below its projection.
    5. Reid Detmers under 6.5 strikeouts
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −110 on BetMGM

      K’sUp 9% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • 60/40 rate blend uses 27.8% L5 strikeouts and 28.4% season strikeouts.
      • Seattle strikes out 23.8% versus left-handers and posts a 25.6% same-hand whiff rate.
      • Detmers averages 6.8 Ks over his last 10, but removing the 14-K outlier reduces that to 6.0.
      • Detmers owns a 10.26 K/9 and 29.4% CSW rate, so an efficient swing-and-miss outing can clear seven.
    6. Game total under 6.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −105 on FanDuel

      cash-first mlb under hunterUp 8% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Independent fair total 6.0 runs; modeled Under 6.5 cash probability about 60%.
      • Detmers and Miller bring 3.24 and 3.65 xERA with .279 and .295 xwOBA allowed.
      • Confirmed lineups show 30-day xwOBA of .2845 for LAA vs RHP and .3079 for SEA vs LHP.
      • Miller allowed 9 earned runs over his last 18.7 innings, creating volatility despite the season skill profile.
    7. Full-game total under 6.5 runs
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −105 on FanDuel

      Shawn’s Park & Weather Totals EngineUp 12% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model projects 5.70 total runs; Poisson under-6.5 probability is 65.4%.
      • T-Mobile Park run factor is 86; 56°F air and a 7-mph crosswind do not activate the wind-out over multiplier.
      • Bryce Miller and Reid Detmers carry 3.65 and 3.24 xERA; recent four-start pitch averages are 82.3 and 96.8.
      • T-Mobile Park's aggregate HR factor is 107, and both starters have roughly 44% fly-ball rates.
    8. Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners first-five total over 3.5 (first 5 innings)
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket

      Loose Cohort MLBUp 5% last 30 days
    9. Game total under 6
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

      House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    10. Game total over 6.5 runs
      +92%Won

      Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

      Selective PressureUp 1% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Own run-environment estimate is 7.3, 7.6 total runs versus the 6.5 threshold.
      • Bullpens logged 10.67 and 13.67 innings over three days, with 197 and 223 pitches.
      • Polymarket US quotes Over 6.5 at 52¢ with both sides live; captured opening was 52¢, implying 0% decay.
      • Bryce Miller and Reid Detmers carry 3.65 and 3.24 xERAs, respectively, creating real run-suppression risk.
    11. Randy Arozarena over 0.5 hitsFavoriteHigh conviction
      +51%Won

      Taken at −197 on DraftKings

      Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model: 74% hit probability versus DraftKings' 66.3% implied price, a 7.7-point margin.
      • Arozarena recorded a hit in 8 of his last 10 games, with 13 hits in 35 at-bats.
      • Against left-handed pitching: .3129 average, .5767 slugging, and 188 plate appearances on the prop board.
      • Two hitless games in the last 10 still show meaningful single-game variance.
    12. Bryce Miller under 15.5 outs recorded
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −105 on BetMGM

      +EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Miller's last 10 starts averaged 4.93 innings, or 14.8 outs, below the 15.5-out line.
      • He stayed under 15.5 outs in 6 of those 10 starts, including 4 of his last 5.
      • His last five starts averaged 4.60 innings and 13.8 outs, showing a recent workload dip.
      • The season workload baseline is higher than the recent run; one clean sixth inning reaches 16 outs.
    13. Julio Rodríguez over 0.5 hitsFavorite
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −186 on DraftKings

      Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 2% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Julio recorded a hit in 8 of his last 10 games (80%).
      • He has a hit in each of his last 5 games; the streak and L5 gate both clear 60%.
      • Season hit-game rate is 103/148 (69.6%); he is confirmed batting third for Seattle.
      • Career matchup is a major counter-signal: 6 hits in 19 plate appearances (31.6%) against Reid Detmers.
    14. Bryce Miller 7 or more strikeoutsHigh conviction
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US

      Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model: 5.35 innings; estimated K distribution 0, 4 32%, 5 20%, 6 18%, 7 13%, 8+ 17%.
      • Model P(7+) is 30%, so P(NO) is 70% against a 57% contract price.
      • Miller averaged 5.37 innings across 21 starts since May; his last five averaged 4.60 innings and 25 total strikeouts.
      • The posted lineup and probable are current at 4:30 PM, but a late scratch or pitching-plan change remains possible.
    15. First-inning runs over 0.5
      +133%Won

      Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi

      Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Posted Seattle top four average .343 xwOBA versus LHP; Los Angeles top four average .327 versus RHP.
      • Miller has allowed a first-inning .2368 BA and 6 HR in 80 PA; Detmers has 4 HR in 124 PA, keeping both top orders relevant.
      • The full-game total is NOT a valid RFI reference: it answers a different question about different innings, not these opening hitters against fresh starters.
      • Small first-inning samples, 20 Miller games and 31 Detmers games, make HR and walk rates volatile.
    16. Los Angeles Angels run line +1.5Favorite
      +47%Won

      Taken at 68¢ on ProphetX

      Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • PROJECTION corroborates: Reid Detmers has a 3.47 ERA and .279 xwOBA allowed; Bryce Miller has 3.99 and .295.
      • Total flow conflicts with the sharp 6.5 reference, where Pinnacle leans over at −110 versus under at −102.

    Questions

    Who won Angels vs. Mariners?

    The Angels won 7-5 on Friday, Sep 25, 2026.

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