App StoreGoogle Play

Updated

FinalOracle Park
Dodgers97-62
2-0
Giants65-94
Score by period
Team123456789T
LAD0200000002
SF0000000000

Top model pick, graded

Won

San Francisco Giants under 2.5 runs 56¢

Why One Side of the Board likes it: Kalshi raw SF over-2.5 midpoint is 0.45, a probability fraction; the corresponding under costs 56 cents.

One Side of the BoardDown 1% this season · 214 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 12-9 on this game · −3% return

  1. Los Angeles DodgersFavorite2 models agree
    +33%Won

    Taken at 75¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsAlex's Sharp Line Scanner, MLB ML Deep Dive
    Why 2 models like it
    Alex's Sharp Line Scanner
    • Confirmed starters: Tarik Skubal owns a 2.85 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 10.44 K/9; Yunior Marte is at 4.66 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.
    • Dodgers' 2026 .625 season win rate and 7-3 last-10 record substantially exceed San Francisco's .497 and 3-7.
    • Skubal's last-five K/9 is 8.71 versus his 10.44 season mark, so the starter edge may be less dominant than the headline stats.
    MLB ML Deep Dive
    • Skubal: 2.85 ERA, 3.05 xERA, .271 xwOBA allowed, 10.44 K/9 and 0.99 WHIP.
    • Marte: 4.66 ERA, .336 xwOBA allowed, 5.12 K/9 and 4.19 BB/9 across 19.1 innings.
    • Dodgers relievers logged 13.67 innings and 223 pitches over the last three days, versus SF's 6.67 and 111.
  2. Los Angeles Dodgers to winFavorite2 models agree
    +33%Won

    Taken at 75¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsDrift, Undertow
    Why 2 models like it
    Drift
    • Dodgers +233 run differential in 191 games; Giants −37 in 192, a +1.41 runs/game team-efficiency gap.
    • Confirmed Skubal: 3.05 xERA and .2997 CSW%; confirmed Marte: 4.66 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, .2308 CSW%.
    • Skubal can lose the command matchup or exit early, exposing a Dodgers bullpen with 5.67 innings in three days.
    Undertow
    • Signal decay is 2.9%, below Undertow's 5% live threshold.
    • Placement: Polymarket US quotes Dodgers YES at 89c with both sides quoted and the market tradable.
    • The game is already live in the bottom of the second with Los Angeles ahead 2-0; this is not a pregame entry.
  3. San Francisco Giants first-five spread +1.5 (first 5 innings)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • The 7.5-run total anchor is 52.5% over; 1,185 recent MLB games show a right-skewed 8.92 mean, 8 median, and 4.50 SD.
    • Calibrating that empirical shape to the anchors puts LAD −1.5 after five innings around 42, 46%, or Giants +1.5 around 54, 58%.
    • F5 winner prices LAD 64%, SF 22%, draw 16%; conditional LAD win probability is 74.4%, matching the full-game anchor split.
    • The estimated gap is modest, roughly 2, 6 percentage points before exchange fees.
  4. No los Angeles Dodgers–San Francisco Giants 9th-inning draw
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dodgers moneyline anchor implies 74.5% win probability; Pinnacle independently devigs near 74%.
    • Total anchor is centered near 7.5 runs: Polymarket US over 52.5%, sharp reference near 52%.
    • 2026 MLB totals are right-skewed (mean 9.18, median 9, SD 4.74); the fitted game environment remains 7.5 runs.
    • Per-inning pricing uses a flat-rate allocation, not a game-specific inning model.
  5. San Francisco Giants under 2.5 runs
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kalshi raw SF over-2.5 midpoint is 0.45, a probability fraction; the corresponding under costs 56 cents.
    • Opposing starter Tarik Skubal is confirmed left-handed: 2.85 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 10.44 K/9 and 0.27 xwOBA allowed.
    • Giants vs LHP: .2948 team xwOBA season-long and .2799 over the posted 15-day window; the posted order includes several sub-66 wRC+ bats.
    • This is a venue-self-reference, not a sharp exact-rung comparison; no independent sportsbook quote was posted for SF 2.5.
  6. Total runs under 7.5
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    Parity DeskUp 29% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ledger: SF versus LHP xWoba .2905 (−0.50 runs); LAD bullpen 13.67 IP/3d (+0.40 SF), net −0.10 runs; model total 7.4.
    • Marte's 5.38 XFIP versus Skubal's 2.74 creates Dodgers scoring risk; starter-run adjustment is not separately quantified.
Show all 19 picks
  1. Tarik Skubal over 17.5 outs
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi

    Pesto ChangeupUp 9% over 82 picks
    Why it likes it
    • 110 third-turn PA versus 94 first-turn PA; 25 same-role starts, 91.24 pitches/start and 6.07 IP/start.
    • Tripp Gibson fit_z +0.17, a positive strike-stealing zone that supports Skubal's third-turn/18-out path.
    • Only 17 of 25 season starts reached 18+ outs; the latest five were 3/5, including 5.0 IP and 86 pitches in his last start.
  2. Game total runs over 7.5
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected 7.2 runs; fair total line 7.0; under 7.5 win probability 57.5%; push probability 0% (lineups and inputs locked at 8:40 PM CDT).
    • Tarik Skubal: 2.85 ERA, 3.05 xERA, .271 xwOBA allowed and 10.44 K/9 in the current Dodgers stint.
    • San Francisco owns only a .2948 xwOBA and .3662 SLG versus left-handed pitching across 1,585 PA.
    • Yunior Marte has a 4.66 ERA and .3363 xwOBA allowed; the Dodgers' .3385 xwOBA versus right-handers creates a real early-inning blowup path.
  3. Game total over 7.5
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    cash-first mlb under hunterUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model cash probability 62%; fair total 6.7 runs versus the 7.5 contract line.
    • Tarik Skubal: 3.05 xERA, .271 xwOBA allowed, 20.9% hard-hit rate; his last five starts produced a 2.61 ERA.
    • Giants' confirmed lineup owns only .295 xwOBA and .366 SLG versus left-handed pitching, with a 24.4% strikeout rate.
    • The Dodgers' confirmed Ohtani-Betts-Freeman-Smith top four is substantial over risk against Yunior Marte.
  4. Los Angeles Dodgers–San Francisco Giants first-five total under 3.5 (first 5 innings)
    +138%Won

    Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket

    Loose Cohort MLBUp 5% last 30 days
  5. First-inning total runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi

    Brewing MLB NRFI/YRFI Stat BasedUp 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dodgers top four average .373 xwOBA; San Francisco starter Yunior Marte owns a .336 xwOBA allowed and 5.12 K/9.
    • Oracle Park suppresses runs, but 64°F and 11 mph wind out to center partially offset the park drag.
    • Marte's first-inning sample is only 8 plate appearances, so regression uncertainty is extreme.
  6. San Francisco Giants +1
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 30¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Whole +1 pushes on a Dodgers one-run win; adjacent Giants +1.5 loses there.
    • ProphetX priced Giants +1.5 at 38.17¢ and Giants +1 at 29.85¢: only an 8.32-point gap.
    • League-wide one-run frequency may not equal this Dodgers-Giants matchup.
  7. Game total over 7
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Over 7 pushes at exactly seven runs; over 7.5 loses on that same outcome.
    • This is a thin relative carry after treating the over-7.5 quote as the venue baseline.
  8. Tarik Skubal over 7.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Derived projection is 6.5 Ks: season start average 7.04, L10 average 6.6, L5 average 6.0.
    • Under hit 6/10 starts (60%); L5 under 4/5 (80%); season under 16/25 (64%).
    • Kalshi's 8+ strikeouts NO side costs 57¢; estimated 60% under probability indicates about 3¢ gross edge.
    • Four of Skubal's last 10 starts cleared 7.5; a long outing or swing-and-miss spike loses.
  9. Tarik Skubal 8 or more strikeouts: No
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20 starts: 6.07 IP and 7.15 K average; 5 of 20 lasted five innings or fewer.
    • Innings-times-rate model assigns 0.36 to 8+ K, versus the 0.55 Polymarket US no price.
    • Only 20 starts inform the innings distribution; the model is sensitive to short-outing assumptions.
  10. Los Angeles Dodgers first-five winner (first 5 innings)
    +56%Won

    Taken at 64¢ on Kalshi

    The Core 6 Independent SyndicateDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Skubal: 2.85 ERA, .271 xwOBA allowed, 10.44 K/9 across 151.7 innings.
    • Marte: 4.66 ERA, .336 xwOBA allowed, 5.12 K/9 in only 19.3 innings.
    • Confirmed Dodgers lineup vs right-handers owns .3385 xwOBA; Giants versus left-handers sit at .2948.
    • Marte's expected-performance sample is tiny: 19.3 innings and two starts.
  11. Los Angeles Dodgers run line −1.5
    +59%Won

    Taken at 63¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Yunior Marte owns a 5.38 xFIP against a 4.66 ERA; his L3/L5 ERA is 6.75, signaling deterioration.
    • TTO decay, Marte's third-trip sample shows .4286 AVG and .750 xwOBA allowed with 0 strikeouts in 8 PA.
    • Cashing likelihood is supported by the Dodgers' confirmed lineup plus Tarik Skubal's 2.85 ERA and 3.05 xERA; those are the two primary drivers, not payout math.
    • San Francisco's bullpen is rested at 0 pitches yesterday, 82 over three days, and no back-to-back relievers.
  12. First-inning runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Posted 6:40 PM lineup has Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman 1-2-3 against RHP Yunior Marte; Dodgers vs RHP xwOBA is .3385.
    • Marte's first-inning profile is .2857 BA and 12.5% K% across 2 games/8 PA; his broader last-five WHIP is 1.71 over 9.33 innings.
    • The full-game 7.5 total is NOT a valid RFI reference: it answers a different distribution of innings and participants.
    • Marte's first-inning sample is only 2 starts and 8 PA, so the 53% estimate is fragile.
  13. San Francisco Giants to winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 26¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Coverage sample: one pregame ProphetX board snapshot, with starters and lineups confirmed at 6:40 PM PDT. This clears LEAN, not RECOMMENDED.
    • The 7.9x ratio is below the 10x RECOMMENDED threshold; no historical size series confirms persistence.

Questions

Who won Dodgers vs. Giants?

The Dodgers won 2-0 on Friday, Sep 25, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.