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FinalCitizens Bank Park
Rays96-63
2-0
Phillies87-72
Score by period
Team123456789T
TB1100000002
PHI0000000000

Top model pick, graded

Won

Tampa Bay Rays moneyline +150 +150

Why Brewing MLB Ml likes it: Pattern was profitable in 2023 (10.6%) and 2025 (6.5%), satisfying the two-of-three-season requirement.

Brewing MLB MlUp 27% return this season · 70 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 16-11 on this game · +13% return

  1. Freddy Peralta over 14.5 outs recorded3 models agreeHigh conviction
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    3 modelsMLB Pitcher Outs Recorded Model, Bello +1
    Why 3 models like it
    MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded Model
    • Model projects 16.45 outs with 80% clearing probability; +1.95 outs versus the 14.5 line.
    • Last five starts: 17, 15, 18, 18, 18 outs; 86.0 pitches/start and 5-for-5 over this line.
    • Season workload is 92.5 pitches/start versus 86.0 over the last five, so the recent downtrend could cap him at five or six innings.
    Bello
    • Peralta's last 3 starts produced 16.67 IP across 275 pitches: 5.56 IP and 16.67 outs per start against a 14.5 line.
    • Physical gate clears: fastball velocity is +0.88 mph and spin +52 rpm versus season baselines; 16.50 P/IP is below the 17.5 decay trigger.
    • Season workload is only 5.28 IP/start, so the 14.5 line has limited margin despite the stronger recent run.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • Projected 16.4 outs versus the 14.5 line, a 13.1% workload edge.
    • Peralta cleared 14.5 outs in 7 of his last 10 starts and all 5 of his last 5.
    • Philadelphia owns a .3176 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching and can force early pitch-count trouble.
  2. Cristopher Sánchez under 6.5 strikeouts2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −160 on BetMGM

    2 modelsMLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL, Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    Why 2 models like it
    MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL
    • Model projects 5.7 strikeouts, 0.8 below the 6.5 line.
    • Confirmed Rays lineup has an 18.5% K rate versus left-handed pitching across 1,473 PA.
    • Six or more innings and 27-plus batters faced can overcome the contact-oriented lineup.
    Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    • 27 strikeouts across Sánchez's last five starts: 5.4 per game, 16.9% below 6.5.
    • His last-five K/9 is 7.67 versus a 9.95 season mark, a 22.8% decline.
    • Sánchez has reached 6 strikeouts in two of his last five starts; one additional K turns this into a loss.
  3. Philadelphia Phillies to win2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 62¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsDrift, Selective Pressure
    Why 2 models like it
    Drift
    • Model 64%; Sánchez xERA 3.39 vs Peralta 3.83, with confirmed starters.
    • Phillies xFIP 3.52 vs Rays 3.89; Phillies xwOBA vs RHP .3176 vs Rays .2849 vs LHP.
    • Tampa Bay owns a +77 current-season run differential versus Philadelphia's +24.
    Selective Pressure
    • My matchup estimate is Philadelphia 64%, above the 61.83¢ ProphetX price.
    • Cristopher Sánchez: 2.97 ERA, 3.39 xERA and 9.95 K/9; Freddy Peralta: 4.45 ERA and 3.83 xERA.
    • Philadelphia is 4-5 across its sampled September 15-24 games, while Tampa Bay is 6-4.
  4. Tampa Bay Rays moneyline +150
    +150%Won

    Taken at +150 on FanDuel

    Brewing MLB MlUp 50% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pattern was profitable in 2023 (10.6%) and 2025 (6.5%), satisfying the two-of-three-season requirement.
    • Freddy Peralta’s current L5 ERA is 0.94 versus Cristopher Sánchez’s 4.55.
    • Sánchez owns the stronger season baseline: 2.97 ERA and 3.39 xERA versus Peralta’s 4.45 and 3.83.
  5. Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies first-five total over 3.5 (first 5 innings)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2-0 bottom 2, with full-game total 7.5: roughly 5.5 runs remain in the anchor picture.
    • Live moneyline anchor: Rays 56%, Phillies 44%; close game, but two runs are already banked.
    • 2026 finals average 8.95 total runs, median 8; the empirical shape is right-skewed, not ultra-low scoring.
    • Only roughly 3.5 innings remain to reach F5; a scoreless stretch loses despite the early runs.
  6. First-five innings drawLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 20¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full-game anchors are coherent: Philadelphia win 61.5¢ and Over 6.5 runs 51¢.
    • First-five total ladder centers near 3, 4 runs: Over 2.5 at 64¢, Over 3.5 at 47¢.
    • Unequal early run allocation can turn a 3, 2 or 2, 1 F5 into a non-draw.
Show all 23 picks
  1. Tampa Bay Rays spread +2.5Favorite
    +39%Won

    Taken at 72¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Anchors agree: Phillies win price is 62c and full-game over 6.5 is only 51c, a favorite in a suppressed run environment.
    • 2026 empirical shape: games finishing at 7 runs or fewer produced +2.5 coverage about 79.7%, versus 73% overall.
    • The entire spread ladder is internally directional: Rays +1.5 is 60c, but +2.5 is only 71.5c despite the low 6.5 anchor.
    • This is venue self-reference: the fitted distribution is built mainly from Polymarket US anchors, not an independent projection.
  2. Tampa Bay Rays over 2.5 runs
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed Rays lineup faces lefty Cristopher Sánchez; Tampa Bay's vs-LHP xwOBA is .2849 versus .3139 versus RHP, with .1843 K%.
    • Sánchez allows .285 xwOBA with 3.39 xERA; Philadelphia's bullpen is rested at 0 B2B relievers and 9.33 IP/156 pitches over three days.
    • Venue coherence is not a fire: TB's 2.5 and Philadelphia's 3.5 team-total medians sum to 6.0 versus the 6.5 game-total median, only 0.5 runs apart.
    • Sánchez's last five starts are worse than his season line: 4.55 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over 31.67 innings.
  3. Cristopher Sanchez under 5.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +108 on FanDuel

    K-Zone FadeUp 39% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Sanchez's L3 K/9 is 6.75, down from a 9.95 season mark.
    • Rays' 19.7% team whiff rate is the contact-heavy fallback signal.
    • FanDuel offers +108 on the under, a favorable price for the downside trend.
    • Sanchez averages 95.56 pitches per start, so workload, not a quick hook, can produce six strikeouts.
  4. Game total under 6.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at −104 on FanDuel

    Alex's Sharp Line ScannerUp 28% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Cristopher Sánchez owns a 3.39 xERA and .285 xwOBA allowed; Freddy Peralta is at 3.83 and .302.
    • Tampa Bay and Philadelphia post only .314 and .318 team xwOBA versus right-handed pitching.
    • All 18 starting lineup spots and both probable pitchers were confirmed at 2:50 PM PDT.
    • Tampa Bay's bullpen logged 11.67 innings and 209 pitches over three days, with two back-to-back arms.
  5. Total runs under 6.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    Parity DeskUp 29% last 30 days
  6. Cristopher Sánchez over 4.5 strikeoutsFavoriteHigh conviction
    +31%Won

    Taken at −325 on BetMGM

    Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed projected starter; Sánchez owns a 9.95 K/9 season line through yesterday.
    • Sánchez cleared 4.5 Ks in 9 of his last 10 starts (90%), averaging 6.4 Ks and 6.13 innings.
    • BetMGM's −325 price is inside the extreme-chalk lane and materially below the recent 90% hit-rate sample.
    • The recent sample is only 10 starts; one sub-five-K outing materially changes the apparent edge.
  7. Philadelphia Phillies spread −1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Phillies team xFIP 3.52 versus Tampa Bay's 3.89; Rays bullpen has logged 209 pitches and 11.67 IP over three days.
    • Movement was flat: Polymarket opened at 40.5% for Philadelphia −1.5 and remains 40.5%.
    • Tampa Bay owns a +77 run differential and 96-63 record, versus Philadelphia's +24 and 87-72.
  8. Game total runs over 6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on DraftKings

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected total 7.3 runs; fair total line 7.0; win probability 59.5%; push probability 0%; inputs locked 5:10 PM CDT.
    • Freddy Peralta's 2026 profile allows .302 xwOBA with a 4.31 FIP; Tampa Bay's confirmed lineup has four top-six hitters above .334 xwOBA.
    • Tampa Bay's bullpen logged 11.67 innings and 209 pitches over three days, versus Philadelphia's 6.0 innings and 109 pitches.
    • Cristopher Sánchez has a 3.39 xERA, 2.81 FIP, and .285 xwOBA allowed, creating a credible low-scoring path.
  9. Cristopher Sánchez under 5.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +120 on FanDuel

    K’sUp 9% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 26.6% season K rate falls to 20.9% over his last five starts (27 Ks in 129 BF).
    • Sánchez still has 221 strikeouts and a 26.6% season K rate; his true talent may rebound toward the full-season mark.
  10. Freddy Peralta strikeouts over 5
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Peralta's last 10 starts: 6, 4, 2, 7, 4, 6, 2, 5, 3, 3 Ks; four of the last five stayed at 4 or fewer.
    • Kalshi ladder was 4+ YES 64¢/NO 37¢, 5+ YES 47¢/NO 54¢, 6+ YES 26¢/NO 75¢; 5+ NO has the best cushion-adjusted value.
    • The Phillies' season split is not completely non-strikeout prone, and one swing-and-miss spike can beat the low recent baseline.
  11. Tampa Bay Rays +1 run line
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rays +1 pushes if Philadelphia wins by exactly 1; it loses only on a Philadelphia win by 2+.
    • DraftKings has Rays +1 at −107 and Pinnacle at +100; ProphetX is +105.
    • The adjacent +1.5 price may already incorporate matchup-specific margin distribution, so historical push mass is not proof of a full edge.
  12. Game total under 6 (push at exactly 6)
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Under 6 refunds at exactly six runs; under 6.5 wins on six.
    • ProphetX under 6 is 44.25¢ versus under 6.5 at 49.75¢; gap is only 5.50¢.
    • Broad MLB frequency is not game-specific; today's scoring environment could differ materially.
  13. Cristopher Sánchez over 5.5 strikeouts
    +65%Won

    Taken at −154 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Sánchez is the verified probable starter and is marked active on the live game board.
    • He cleared 5.5 Ks in 7 of his last 10 starts (70%).
    • Season rate is 25/32 starts (78.1%); a 50/50 season-L10 blend estimates 74.1%.
    • Tampa Bay's 18.4% lineup K rate versus lefties is contact-oriented.
  14. Jonathan Aranda over 0.5 hits
    +67%Won

    Taken at −150 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Live board lists Aranda active for this game; sportsbook pricing confirms game participation.
    • L10 hit rate is 8/10 (80%); 2026 game hit rate is 69.1%.
    • Conservative 50/50 model blend is 74.5% versus −150 DraftKings implied 60%.
    • Cristopher Sánchez has a strong .274 season xwOBA allowed; this is not a clean pitcher matchup.
  15. Freddy Peralta strikeouts 5+: No
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Recent 10 starts: 5.40 IP and 86.6 pitches per start, 4.2 K/start; 5+ K in 4 of 10.
    • Freddy's 2026 TTO K rates are 27.9% / 27.2% / 13.9%; Philadelphia's confirmed nine-man lineup is 21.3% over 3,433 PA versus RHP.
    • Peralta's season line is 8.36 K/9, so a clean six-inning outing can clear five despite the recent distribution.
  16. Philadelphia Phillies run line −1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Peralta's 2026 TTO xwOBA climbs .283 → .294 → .312, a late-order vulnerability.
    • Peralta's season xFIP is 4.36 against 3.83 xERA; Tampa's lineup versus right-handers posts .421 SLG and only a 17.8% K rate.
    • Tampa's bullpen has absorbed 7.33 innings and 156 pitches over three days; Philadelphia's has 6.0 innings and 109 pitches, with no back-to-back relievers.
    • Peralta's recent form is strong: 1.08 ERA over his last three starts and 0.94 over his last five; the TTO signal may not carry today.
  17. First-inning runs
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed top threes: Rays xWOBA vs LHP .358/.309/.400; Phillies xwOBA vs RHP .351/.278/.422.
    • Team scoreless rates are aggregate offense, not this exact six-hitter matchup; individual split samples are thinner than season totals.

Questions

Who won Rays vs. Phillies?

The Rays won 2-0 on Friday, Sep 25, 2026.

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