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Bruins vs. DucksFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalHonda Center
Bruins
4–2Final
Ducks
Score by period
Team123T
BOS0134
ANA2002

Top model pick, graded

Won

Over 5.5 total goals 61¢

Why Goal Ladder likes it: Internal coherence: Poisson fit to Pinnacle's de-vigged 6.5 total gives 6.66 expected goals.

Goal LadderUp 49% return this season · 51 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 7-3 on this game · +29% return

  1. Over 5.5 total goals
    +64%Won

    Taken at 61¢ on Novig

    Goal LadderUp 67% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Internal coherence: Poisson fit to Pinnacle's de-vigged 6.5 total gives 6.66 expected goals.
    • Both sides are live; Novig best-price stake is $627 on over and $936 on under.
    • Confirmed starters DiPietro (.897 SV%) and Dostal (.892 SV%) support meaningful scoring variance.
    • A six-goal game loses despite the strong five-goal-tail probability; NHL empty-net and one-goal variance are material.
  2. Lukas Dostal over 22.5 total saves
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    Crease WorkloadUp 25% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • His .8923 current save percentage regresses toward .905; five starts provide only a thin early-season sample.
    • Most likely loss: Boston produces 22 or fewer shots on goal, leaving Dostal below 23 saves.
  3. Cutter Gauthier over 3.5 shots on goal
    +85%Won

    Taken at −118 on FanDuel

    NHL Shot Volume HunterDown 10% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 7.4 individual Corsi attempts per game over his last five; 37 total attempts.
    • 16:42 average TOI over five games, with 3:40 average power-play time this season.
    • RotoWire confirms Gauthier in the lineup and on Anaheim's No. 1 power-play unit.
    • Last-five SOG average is 3.4, only 0.1 below the line; the recent sample is just five games.
  4. Anaheim Ducks to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Backup TaxNew model
    Why it likes it
    • Michael DiPietro is confirmed for Boston; Jeremy Swayman is the usual starter and is slated for Saturday.
    • Lukas Dostal is officially confirmed for Anaheim and has started five of the Ducks' first six games.
    • Pinnacle is currently a 50/50 devigged pick'em, but its opening home price implied roughly 48.9%; only about a 1-point probability move has landed.
    • DiPietro's season sample is only one prior start, at .8966 save percentage; the backup penalty may be overstated.
  5. Boston Bruins
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    Cohort CheckDown 26% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • BOS is 3.71 GF/game and 2.29 GA/game through seven; ANA is 3.33 GF and 2.83 GA through six.
    • A conservative goal-rate Poisson estimate makes Boston a 54% full-game winner versus the sharp-book 50% devig.
    • Confirmed starters are Michael DiPietro (.897 save rate) and Lukas Dostal (.892); the goaltending gap does not erase Boston's rate edge.
    • Anaheim owns home ice and a major early-season special-teams edge: 33.3% power play and 90.5% penalty kill versus Boston's 16.7% and 76.0%.
  6. Boston Bruins two-way moneyline +100
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Regulation GapUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The 3.03-point mismatch clears the brief's 3-point threshold; Boston's two-way price is the cheap side.
    • Venue self-reference is the edge class; Bruins' recent 5-2 record over seven with +1.4 margin does not contradict the side.
    • The 3.03-point gap is only marginally above the gate, so rounding or quote movement can erase it.
Show all 10 picks
  1. Boston Bruins–Anaheim Ducks over 2.5 first-period total goalsLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 29¢ on Polymarket US

    First Frame SumDown 31% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current-season attack/defense rates imply about 1.93 first-period goals before market calibration.
    • Nesting the 6.5 game-total environment with standard later-period means gives a first-period mean near 2.0, 2.1.
    • Boston has only seven current-season games and Anaheim six, so period rates are a thin sample.
  2. Leo Carlsson under 2.5 shots on goal
    +77%Won

    Taken at −130 on DraftKings

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 1.0 shots per game across six 2026 regular-season games; 0 of 6 exceeded 2.5.
    • Under in each of his last five games, with only 4 total shots in that span.
    • Confirmed top-six role, 20:08 average ice time, and 4:11 average power-play time.
    • Six-game sample is thin; there is no meaningful player-specific H2H sample.
  3. Boston Bruins to win
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    Morning PuckDown 26% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Boston's 3.71 GF and 2.29 GA per game remain better than Anaheim's 3.33 GF and 2.83 GA.
    • A 50% league-average shrink plus goalie adjustment gives Boston roughly 55% in the Poisson model.
    • Michael DiPietro (.897 SV%) and Lukas Dostal (.892) are both rested; Boston's backup status is not a back-to-back issue.
    • The model is built on only 6-7 completed games, so early-season rates are highly noisy.
  4. Morgan Geekie under 2.0 shots on goal
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Geekie recorded 0, 1, 3, 1, 1 shots in his last five games: under 2 in four of five.
    • Recent 1.2 SOG/game is 40% below the 2.0 PrizePicks line.
    • Confirmed on Boston's top line, preserving active-player and ice-time viability despite the under angle.
    • The 3-shot game in the last five shows the line can be cleared in a favorable shooting night.

Questions

Who won Bruins vs. Ducks?

The Bruins won 4-2 on Friday, Oct 16, 2026.

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