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FinalT-Mobile Park
Angels60-98
6-4
Mariners74-84
Score by period
Team123456789T
LAA0100220106
SEA0300100004

Top model pick, graded

Won

Los Angeles Angels/Seattle Mariners F5 total over 4.5 (first 5 innings) 41¢

Why Opening Frame likes it: Grayson Rodriguez: .357 xwOBA against, 4.88 L5 ERA, 1.55 L5 WHIP; Seattle's posted top three show .3215 lineup xwOBA.

Opening FrameUp 1% return this season · 121 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 17-13 on this game · +12% return

  1. Seattle Mariners to win5 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 64¢ on Polymarket US

    5 modelsParity Desk, weak-pitcher fade ML #1180 +3
    Why 5 models like it
    Parity Desk
    • Seattle's RHP split xwOBA is .3215, above the .315 offensive gate; Angels' .302 split xwOBA receives the −0.50-run platoon ledger.
    • Seattle's bullpen has 2 back-to-back days and Los Angeles has 4; the prescribed +0.40-run fatigue adjustments offset rather than add to the side.
    weak-pitcher fade ML #1180
    • Cashing likelihood: Bryan Woo has a 3.92 ERA and 1.08 WHIP versus Grayson Rodriguez at 6.05 and 1.55.
    • Rodriguez clears multiple vulnerability gates: 5.58 xERA and .357 xwOBA allowed.
    • Seattle's bullpen logged 10.0 innings and 164 pitches over three days, versus 6.67 innings and 153 pitches for Los Angeles.
    Selective Pressure
    • Seattle starter Bryan Woo: 3.92 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 8.96 K/9; Grayson Rodriguez is at 6.05 ERA and 1.55 WHIP.
    • Seattle holds the home-field and season-record advantages: 74-84 versus Los Angeles at 60-98.
    • Seattle's bullpen has worked 10.0 innings and thrown 164 pitches over three days, versus 6.67 innings and 153 pitches for Los Angeles.
    Fade the Arm
    • Grayson Rodriguez owns a 6.05 ERA, 4.48 xFIP and .357 xwOBA allowed in 2026.
    • Cashing likelihood is favorable from the starter/platoon matchup; price quality is LEAN because ProphetX is near sharp reference.
    • Rodriguez's L3 ERA is 5.63 and L5 ERA 4.88, both below his 6.05 season ERA.
  2. Seattle Mariners first-five to win (first 5 innings)Favorite2 models agree
    +48%Won

    Taken at −210 on FanDuel

    2 modelsPuddinsPOP F5 MLB, The Core 6 Independent Syndicate
    Why 2 models like it
    PuddinsPOP F5 MLB
    • Independent fair estimate: Seattle 73% (fair price about −270) versus FanDuel −210.
    • Bryan Woo: 3.60 xERA, .293 xwOBA allowed; Grayson Rodriguez: 5.58 xERA, .357 xwOBA allowed.
    • Rodriguez reached at least five innings in four of his last five starts; one rebound outing can erase the gap.
    The Core 6 Independent Syndicate
    • Independent cashing probability: 70.5%; FanDuel −210 implies 67.7%.
    • Grayson Rodriguez: 5.58 expected ERA, .357 expected wOBA allowed; recent ERA 5.63 over 16.0 innings.
    • The matchup-specific F5 board projects nearly even team scoring baselines before the starter adjustment, so the edge depends heavily on Rodriguez's expected-performance gap.
  3. Los Angeles Angels/Seattle Mariners F5 total over 4.5 (first 5 innings)
    +144%Won

    Taken at 41¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Grayson Rodriguez: .357 xwOBA against, 4.88 L5 ERA, 1.55 L5 WHIP; Seattle's posted top three show .3215 lineup xwOBA.
    • F5 run inputs point to scoring on both sides: LAA 2.54 runs/game vs SEA 2.39 allowed; SEA 2.42 vs LAA 2.55 allowed.
    • Most likely loss path: Bryan Woo suppresses LAA while Rodriguez strands Seattle traffic, leaving 0-4 runs after five.
  4. Seattle Mariners F5 winner (first 5 innings)
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Woo's F5-board WHIP L5 is 1.06 versus Rodriguez's 1.55, with 5.87 versus 5.53 L5 innings per start.
    • SEA's right-handed split is stronger: team xwOBA .3215 versus LAA .3020, while SEA's top three lineup xwOBA averages .342 versus LAA .334.
    • Most likely loss path: Rodriguez suppresses SEA's top half and the Mariners fail to create an early lead.
  5. Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners first-five total over 3.5 (first 5 innings)
    +163%Won

    Taken at 38¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Live anchor: full-game over 6.5 is 77¢ at Polymarket US; target F5 over 3.5 is only 38¢.
    • Fitted live picture: Seattle win probability is 54.5%, total environment centers near nine runs, and one run is already scored.
    • 2023, 26 MLB finals average 9.15 runs; over 6.5 occurred 69.3%, supporting the right-skewed high-total calibration.
    • Only one run has scored through the bottom of the second; both starters could suppress the remaining F5 scoring.
  6. Los Angeles Angels +1.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Seattle moneyline anchor implies roughly a 64% home-win probability; full-game total anchor implies a scoring center near 7 runs.
    • The same +1.5 outcome is quoted at 55¢ on Angels +1.5, versus 76.5¢ as Seattle +1.5 on the opposite spread contract.
    • A low-total Seattle-favorite profile puts substantial mass on one-run Seattle wins, making Angels +1.5 the anchor-consistent side at a materially higher fair price.
    • The target-specific market-history lookup errored; the live venue read was fresh at 4:16 PM PDT but its last repricing cannot be confirmed.
Show all 25 picks
  1. No 2nd-inning draw
    +156%Won

    Taken at 39¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Seattle moneyline anchor: 64¢; Pinnacle’s devigged home probability is 63.3%.
    • Total anchors: over 6.5 at 55.5¢, over 7.5 at 43¢; Pinnacle’s total is 7.
    • Fitted anchor picture: Seattle roughly 64%, with scoring centered around 7, 7.5 runs.
    • Draw remains the modal inning outcome; one tied score or scoreless frame loses.
  2. Game total over 6.5 runs
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

    Alex's Sharp Line ScannerUp 28% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 season scoring rates are 4.05 runs/game for Seattle and 4.02 for Los Angeles; both staffs allow over 4.4.
    • Grayson Rodriguez's live slate xERA is 5.58 versus Bryan Woo's 3.60, creating a substantial starter-driven over pathway.
    • Both probable starters are confirmed, and the 5:50 PM lineup snapshot lists nine starters for each team, including Trout, Raleigh, and Julio Rodríguez.
    • Pinnacle's main-total over price moved from −122 to −101, a 21-cent move against the over.
  3. Total runs under 6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US

    Parity DeskUp 29% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's 7.0 quote is Over −102 / Under −110, devigging to 49% / 51%; SD 4.3 anchors the total near 7.1.
    • LAA's .3051 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching triggers a −0.50-run platoon ledger; SEA is .3341, producing a derived mean near 6.6.
    • SEA's .3133 L30 and .3341 season xwOBA versus right-handers can overwhelm the Angels' weakness; seven or more runs loses.
  4. Bryan Woo over 4.5 strikeoutsFavoriteHigh conviction
    +16%Won

    Taken at −625 on BetMGM

    Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Woo cleared 4.5 strikeouts in 8 of his last 10 starts (80%).
    • Woo is the confirmed Seattle starter; his recent strikeout counts include 9, 7 and 8.
    • BetMGM posts −625, inside the brief's strict −300 to −1000 chalk range.
    • Four strikeouts in two of Woo's last 10 starts would miss despite the favorable matchup.
  5. Seattle Mariners win the 7th inningLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 23¢ on Polymarket US

    Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Seattle's 7th-inning price is 23¢, below innings 1-6 at 24-27¢, while the full-game SEA price is 64¢ and F5 SEA is 56¢.
    • the 7th-inning draw is 64¢, the highest through inning 8, despite full-game over 6.5 at 56¢ and F5 over 3.5 at 55¢.
    • Angels relievers logged 153 pitches and 6.67 innings over three days; four appeared back-to-back, versus two Mariners relievers.
    • The 6.5 full-game total still makes a scoreless or tied seventh plausible; the venue's draw price may be correct.
  6. Game total runs over 7
    +94%Won

    Taken at −106 on DraftKings

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected total 8.1 runs; fair total line 8.0; Over 7 win probability 56.8%; push probability 11.7%; model locked 8:10 PM CDT.
    • Bryan Woo allows a .293 xwOBA with a 3.92 ERA; Grayson Rodriguez allows a .357 xwOBA with a 6.05 ERA.
    • Seattle's confirmed nine-man lineup carries multiple .32-plus xwOBA versus right-handed pitching, while Rodriguez's last-five ERA is 4.88.
    • T-Mobile Park is cool at 60°F with a 5-mph wind blowing in, a modest run and home-run suppressor.
  7. Grayson Rodriguez over 4.5 strikeouts
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi

    K’sUp 9% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model: 23.5 projected TBF × 19.5% blended K rate gives λ≈4.6; P(K≤4)≈51%.
    • L5 K/9 is 7.16 versus 7.97 season; recent 60/40 blend suppresses the baseline.
    • Six-test review passed: 213 recent PAs, outlier removal, cross-source whiff agreement, recency, and workload checks.
    • Rodriguez averaged 5.1 Ks across his last eight starts; four of eight stayed under 4.5.
  8. Grayson Rodriguez 5+ strikeouts: No
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rodriguez produced 4, 4, 3, 7, 4 Ks in his last five starts; only 1 of 5 cleared 5+.
    • Seattle's confirmed nine-man lineup owns a 22.5% K rate versus right-handed pitching, a borderline matchup rather than an elite strikeout target.
    • The rung comparison favors 5+ NO: 4+ NO is cheaper but more fragile, while 6+ NO is more workload-insulated but only a marginal price edge.
    • His season cleared 5+ in 9 of 19 starts and his last-10 average is 5.3 Ks, so the recent five-start dip may be noise.
  9. Grayson Rodriguez under 16.5 outs recorded
    +94%Won

    Taken at −106 on FanDuel

    BelloUp 7% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 hit 13 of 19 starts under 16.5 outs (68.4%); season average is 14.79 outs.
    • Last three starts: 20, 16, 12 outs; 16.0-out average across 5.33 innings per start.
    • Rolling P/IP is 16.63, below the 17.5 trigger; velocity delta is −1.55 mph and spin delta is +2 rpm, so the decay gate is not activated.
    • Rodriguez reached 20 outs in his latest start; efficient contact or an early Seattle lead can produce the required six-plus innings.
  10. Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners over 7.0 runs
    +100%Won

    Taken at +100 on BetMGM

    Shawn’s Park & Weather Totals EngineUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model total 7.35 runs; Poisson gives 45.3% over, 39.9% under, and 14.8% push.
    • Pinnacle 7.0 prices devig to 49% over; model conditional over probability is 53.2%, a 4.2-point gap.
    • Rodriguez's 5.58 xERA and 4.23 Angels bullpen xFIP create the main Seattle scoring path; Woo's 3.60 xERA is offset by Seattle's .334 RHP xwOBA.
    • The 14.8% push probability makes the edge sensitive to one-run scoring variance around exactly seven.
  11. Game total over 6.5
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket

    Loose Cohort MLBUp 5% last 30 days
  12. Game total under 7
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Under 7 is refunded at exactly 7 total runs; under 7.5 wins at 7.
    • ProphetX under 7 is −105 (51.22¢) versus under 7.5 at −134 (57.26¢); the whole-rung discount is modest versus that mass.
    • Totals of 6 or fewer win; 8 or more lose; the 7-run outcome only pushes and does not create profit.
  13. Bryce Teodosio under 0.5 hits
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −172 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 80% under-hit rate across his last 10 recorded appearances (8 of 10).
    • His 2026 batting average versus right-handers is .077; Woo owns a 9.55 K/9.
    • The Angels strike out 25.8% versus right-handed pitching, reinforcing the contact-suppression matchup.
    • Thin 60-PA season sample and several long gaps between appearances.
  14. Grayson Rodriguez under 4.5 strikeouts
    +135%Won

    Taken at +135 on DraftKings

    +EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 10 of Rodriguez's 19 2026 starts finished with 4 or fewer strikeouts (52.6%).
    • His season baseline is 83 strikeouts in 19 starts, or 4.37 per start.
    • Seattle's current strikeout rate versus right-handers is 22.5%, not an over-friendly matchup.
    • The under hit only 4 times in his last 10 starts, so recent form is less favorable than the full-season sample.
  15. Bryan Woo pitching strikeouts 7+: No
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 41¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Woo's last 10 starts averaged 5.73 IP and 5.8 K; only 3 of 10 reached 7+ and 2 of 10 reached 8+.
    • Screened all 9 quoted contracts across both starters: both ladders were monotone, both sides were quoted, and none hit the 0.98/0.02 placeholder band.
    • Seattle's bullpen used 10.0 IP and 164 pitches over three days, which can lengthen Woo's leash.
  16. Seattle Mariners run line −1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Grayson Rodriguez owns a 5.58 xERA, 4.48 xFIP, and 6.05 season ERA; his TTO1 xwOBA is .445 and TTO3 is .396.
    • Rodriguez's latest fastball averaged 95.75 mph versus a 96.14-mph season baseline; his L3 ERA/K9 are 5.63/6.19 versus 4.88/7.16 over L5.
    • Seattle versus right-handed pitching posts a .3215 xwOBA and 22.5% K rate, clearing the platoon gate; its nine-man lineup was posted at 4:10 PM PDT.
    • The most likely loss is a one-run Seattle win: the Mariners can prevail without covering −1.5.
  17. First-inning runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • SEA/LAA first-inning scoreless rates .677/.6708 imply 54.6% RFI before matchup adjustment.
    • Posted top threes: Crawford/Arozarena/Canzone .321/.351/.353; Neto/Trout/Meckler .301/.382/.318 xwOBA versus RHP.
    • Season scoreless rates are unadjusted aggregates; top-three xwOBA is a six-hitter sample, not a full lineup projection.
  18. Game total under 6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-09-24T18:06:47-07:00. Both sides are quoted and the under clears the $300 gate.
    • Pinnacle has 7 with under −111. Direction agrees, while ProphetX offers the lower 6.5 threshold.
    • Only the total board shows a strong directional imbalance; moneyline and run-line flow are comparatively balanced.
  19. Seattle Mariners F5 to win (first 5 innings)High conviction
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi

    Five FramesUp 9% over 37 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Gone-by-Six mirror fires: Rodriguez WHIP L5 1.55 and ERA L5 4.88 favor Seattle; Woo is 1.06 and 3.07.
    • Most likely loss: Rodriguez limits Seattle's top three despite the large L5 quality gap, or Woo allows early traffic.

Questions

Who won Angels vs. Mariners?

The Angels won 6-4 on Thursday, Sep 24, 2026.

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