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FinalloanDepot park
Braves93-66
0-3
Marlins78-81
Score by period
Team123456789T
ATL0000000000
MIA00000012-3

Top model pick, graded

Won

Eury Pérez over 4.5 strikeouts −166

Why MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL likes it: 5.45 projected Ks; 0.95 above the 4.5 line; simulated clear probability 63%.

MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODELDown 3% this season · 117 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 7-20 on this game · −55% return

  1. Atlanta Braves to win4 models agreeHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    4 modelsDrift, Selective Pressure +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Drift
    • Atlanta is +116 in run differential versus Miami +3, with a 3.62 team ERA versus 4.10.
    • Confirmed starters: Ray Kerr has a 1.76 ERA and .522 WHIP; Miami starter Eury Pérez is 4.14 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.
    • Kerr has only 15.33 current-season innings and zero prior 2026 starts, so his excellent rate line is a thin sample.
    Selective Pressure
    • Atlanta is 93-66 with a +116 run differential; Miami is 78-81 with a +3 differential.
    • Verified starters favor Atlanta's profile: Ray Kerr 1.76 ERA/0.52 WHIP versus Eury Pérez 4.14 ERA/1.27 WHIP.
    • Kerr's excellent line comes from only 15.3 innings, a very thin sample.
    Fade the Arm
    • Eury Pérez's 2026 recent ERA is 8.56 over his last 3 and 10.12 over his last 5, versus 4.14 season ERA.
    • Pérez's recent WHIP is 2.19/2.25, while TTO3/TTO4 xwOBA allowed (.3395/.3237) worsens from .306 in TTO1.
    • Miami's bullpen has no back-to-back relievers and only 7.67 innings/110 pitches over three days, limiting the early-exit advantage.
    Deep Book
    • Pinnacle lists Atlanta −109. ProphetX home-side history moved from 0.49 to 0.48 by 12:50 PM PDT.
    • The existing Braves −1.5 position does not validate this moneyline; a one-run game remains high variance.
  2. Eury Pérez under 5.5 strikeouts4 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −134 on DraftKings

    4 modelsSeñor Strikeouts, Picks with pink pro reader +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Señor Strikeouts
    • Pérez averaged 4.4 strikeouts across his last five starts, with 4-5 Ks in four of them.
    • DraftKings prices the under 5.5 at −134, a playable number against the matchup and recent-results profile.
    • He threw a one-inning, three-strikeout relief appearance on September 22; its effect on workload and stuff is uncertain.
    Picks with pink pro reader
    • 80% under rate: Pérez stayed below 5.5 Ks in 8 of his last 10 starts.
    • Model estimate: 70% under; DraftKings −134 implies 57.3%, clearing the 4-point value gate.
    • Atlanta's 21.9% K rate versus RHP is contact-oriented and makes a five-plus-K outing plausible.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • 64% modeled under versus 57.9% devigged Pinnacle reference: +6.1 percentage points.
    • Eury averages 5.32 innings and 91.21 pitches per start across 28 2026 starts.
    • Eury's 9.72 K/9 and established 91-pitch workload can still reach six strikeouts.
    Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    • 4.4 strikeouts per start across Pérez’s last five starts: 4, 5, 5, 3, 5.
    • All five recent starts stayed under the 5.5-strikeout line.
    • The five-start sample is thin, and Pérez has reached 96, 102 pitches in three of those outings.
  3. Atlanta Braves run line −1.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 39¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsFade the Arm, Deep Book
    Why 2 models like it
    Fade the Arm
    • PROJECTION; cashing likelihood moderate, driven by Eury Pérez's 8.56 L3 ERA/2.19 L3 WHIP and Atlanta's .3229 xwOBA versus RHP.
    • Eury's 2026 TTO K rate falls to 21.8% in TTO4 from 27.3% in TTO1; late-order decay supports Atlanta's offense.
    • Atlanta's own starter Kerr has only 15.33 innings in 2026; a short outing can erase the matchup edge.
    Deep Book
    • Cross-market flow agrees: Atlanta leads moneyline size 15.0x; total under 7.5 leads 163.6x.
    • Ray Kerr 1.76 ERA and 0.52 WHIP versus Eury Pérez 4.14 ERA and 1.27 WHIP; lineups are posted. ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-09-25T13:41:14-07:00.
    • The most likely loss is a one-run Atlanta win; −1.5 requires a two-run margin.
  4. No 9th-inning draw
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Moneyline anchor implies Atlanta about 51.5% versus Miami 48.5%; total anchor implies a 7.5-run game with over around 53.5%.
    • Pinnacle independently supports the same mild Atlanta edge and roughly eight-run scoring environment.
    • The inning ladder prices a draw at 58% in the first inning but 70% in the ninth, opposite the expected late-inning scoring adjustment.
    • A ninth-inning draw is a thin, high-variance low-count outcome; one walk or late run decides it.
  5. Game first-five total over 4.5 (first 5 innings)Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 23¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Atlanta Braves, Miami F5 over 4.5 costs 23¢; the adjacent over 5.5 costs 25¢.
    • Nested outcomes require over 4.5 to be at least as likely as over 5.5; the live ladder reverses that order.
    • Liquid anchors show Atlanta 53% to win and 43% for full-game over 7.5, a coherent moderate-scoring environment.
    • Game is live at 0-0 through two innings; five-plus runs in the remaining F5 window is highly volatile.
  6. Atlanta Braves over 3.5 team runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Atlanta vs RHP: .3229 team xwOBA over 3,879 PA; Eury Pérez is confirmed right-handed.
    • Pérez: 4.14 season ERA versus 10.12 ERA and 2.25 WHIP over his last 5 starts (21.33 IP).
    • Confirmed Atlanta 1-9 includes three left-handed bats in the top four around Ronald Acuña Jr.; the lineup is known, not inferred.
    • loanDepot park is suppressive: runs factor 94 and home-run factor 78; the roof is closed with no wind boost.
Show all 21 picks
  1. Total runs over 8.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US

    Parity DeskUp 29% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ledger: Miami's bullpen logged 14.67 IP/3d, adding 0.40 runs to Atlanta; Atlanta's 12.33 IP/3d adds 0.40 to Miami; Miami vs LHP xwOBA .3038 subtracts 0.50; net +0.30 runs.
    • Most likely loss path: Eury Pérez dominates Atlanta and Kerr's limited workload is followed by effective bulk relief, keeping the game at 8 or fewer.
  2. Eury Pérez over 4.5 strikeouts
    +60%Won

    Taken at −166 on FanDuel

    MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODELUp 24% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 5.45 projected Ks; 0.95 above the 4.5 line; simulated clear probability 63%.
    • FanDuel's −166 over / +130 under de-vigs to roughly 58.9%; the model's 63% is a positive price gap.
    • Only 3 of Eury's last 5 starts cleared 4.5 Ks; the 63% projection is close to the minimum bar.
  3. Miami Marlins 2nd-inning winnerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 23¢ on Polymarket US

    Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • inning 2 draw is 65¢, highest among innings 1-8, while innings 1, 3-5 are 58-61¢.
    • F5 winner prices are nearly balanced (MIA 43¢, ATL 42¢) with only a 16¢ F5 draw, inconsistent with inning 2's unusually draw-heavy quote.
    • Inning 2 middle-order matchup favors Miami slightly: Sanoja, Conine and Ramírez combine for .323 current xwOBA vs lefties; Harris, Dubón and Albies are at .314 vs righties.
    • The F5 draw and inning prices are different aggregation markets; run clustering can make a 16¢ F5 draw coexist with high single-inning draw rates.
  4. Game total runs under 8.5
    +78%Won

    Taken at −128 on FanDuel

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: 8.3 projected total runs, fair total line 8.3, 58% under-8.5 win probability, 0% push probability; inputs locked 5:40 PM CDT and price refreshed 5:41 PM CDT.
    • Atlanta projects .3229 xwOBA and .4185 SLG versus right-handed pitching; Miami is at .3038 xwOBA and .3894 SLG versus left-handed pitching.
    • Roof closed at 72°F with no wind and loanDepot Park's 94 run-factor support a lower-scoring environment.
    • Ray Kerr has only 15.33 snapshot innings and zero starts, creating uncertainty about his workload and the Atlanta bullpen bridge.
  5. Eury Pérez 4+ strikeoutsFavorite
    +30%Won

    Taken at 77¢ on Kalshi

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last four starts: 97/96/92/102 pitches; 95.0-pitch L3 average implies 5.9 projected innings.
    • 5+ YES and 6+ YES fail the 1.5-K separation gate; 4+ is the workload-insulated qualifying rung. Adam Hamari confirmed; K/CS data N/A, neutral.
    • Perez averaged 4.4 Ks over his last five starts; a 4-K outing loses despite the projected workload.
  6. Eury Pérez under 15.5 outs recorded
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −130 on BetMGM

    BelloUp 7% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • L5 starts average 12.8 outs; the 15.5 threshold requires 5.17 innings, above every recent start.
    • Physical verification is stable: rolling fastball velocity about −0.37 mph and release spin about −3 rpm versus season baselines, so no decay classification.
    • Marlins bullpen has thrown 236 pitches over three days, but Upgrade V leash override is bypassed because decay is unverified.
    • Miami's 236-pitch bullpen load can force McCullough to extend Pérez beyond the recent workload pattern.
  7. Miami Marlins +1.5 run lineHigh conviction
    +61%Won

    Taken at 62¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Marlins +1.5 wins a one-run loss; Marlins +1 pushes that exact margin.
    • ProphetX quotes +1.5 at −160 (61.54¢) versus +1 at −125 (55.56¢): only a 5.98¢ implied-price gap.
    • Unconfirmed late lineup or weather changes could shift this matchup's margin distribution.
  8. Game total over 8 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • over 8 wins at 9+ runs, pushes at exactly 8; adjacent over 8.5 loses at 8.
    • ProphetX quotes over 8 at 50.74¢ (−103) versus over 8.5 at 46.95¢ (+113), only a 3.79-point gap.
    • Over 8 loses on 0-7 runs; an exactly-8 final returns stake but produces no profit.
  9. Game total over 7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    Selective PressureUp 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Own estimate: approximately 57% for 8+ runs versus a 54¢ executable price.
    • Adam Hamari's warehouse profile shows a 10.1-run average and 58.1% over-9 rate.
    • Eury Pérez carries a 4.14 ERA and 4.20 xERA; Ray Kerr's 2026 sample is only 15.33 innings.
    • loanDepot park has a 94 run factor and 78 HR factor; roof is closed with no wind assist.
  10. Deyvison De Los Santos under 0.5 hits
    +100%Won

    Taken at +100 on BetMGM

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 80% under rate: De Los Santos recorded no hit in 8 of his last 10 appearances.
    • Model estimate: 72% no-hit; BetMGM +100 implies 50%, a 22-point value margin.
    • His 2026 regular-season profile is .1724 batting average with 5 hits in 29 at-bats.
    • Two of the last 10 appearances had zero at-bats, inflating the recent no-hit appearance rate.
  11. Drake Baldwin over 0.5 hitsFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 66¢ on Kalshi

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 8 hits in his last 10 games (80%); 4 of his last 5 (80%).
    • Hit in 97 of 135 games this season (71.9%); season .2876 average and .366 xwOBA.
    • Confirmed batting first for Atlanta at 1:10 PM PDT; no active IL row or injury signal found.
    • A one-game hit prop remains highly volatile even with a leadoff role and expected four-plus plate appearances.
  12. Eury Pérez 6 or more strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Working distribution: P(6+) 0.31; exact-K mass 0-2 .20, 3 .14, 4 .18, 5 .17, 6 .13, 7 .10, 8+ .08.
    • Eury's last five starts averaged 4.27 IP and 4.4 K; none exceeded 5 IP or 5 strikeouts.
    • Season baseline is stronger: 28 starts averaged 5.68 K and 5.32 IP; 15 of 28 reached 6+.
  13. Atlanta Braves first-five to win (first 5 innings)
    0%Push

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    The Core 6 Independent SyndicateDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Independent cash estimate: 54%; DraftKings −105 implies 51.2%, fair price approximately −117.
    • Eury Pérez: 4.14 ERA, 4.20 xERA, .315 xwOBA allowed; last-three ERA is 8.56.
    • Atlanta posts a .323 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching; four confirmed top-four hitters exceed .340 individual xwOBA.
    • Kerr has only 15.33 innings and zero prior starts, so his workload and role remain unusually uncertain.
  14. No run in the 1st inning
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • lineup-specific blend estimates RFI YES 43%, so NO 57% versus Kalshi's raw 0.48 fraction (48.5¢).
    • Confirmed top threes: Braves xwOBA .366/.368/.354; Marlins .327/.310/.348, rather than generic full-game offense.
    • Eury Pérez first-inning profile: .215 BA, 29.3% K rate, 7 HR in 116 PA; Atlanta sees him once, cold.
    • Kerr has no 2026 first-inning sample and zero prior starts in the profile; his listed-starter role is unusual.
  15. Miami Marlins to win
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    UndertowUp 2% over 123 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Direction maps cleanly to Kalshi's Miami YES contract; Kalshi shows both sides trading with a one-cent spread.
    • Atlanta has the stronger record (93-66 versus Miami 78-81) and slightly better 2026 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching (.323 versus .312).

Questions

Who won Braves vs. Marlins?

The Marlins won 3-0 on Friday, Sep 25, 2026.

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