Bears vs. PackersFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalLambeau Field
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| GB | 7 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 31 |
Top model pick, graded
WonD'Andre Swift under 84.5 rushing yards −113
Why Pick With Pink (NFL) player props likes it: L5: 4/5 under; L10: 7/10; 2026 season: 3/4.
Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 25% this season · 101 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 14-18 on this game · −15% return
- Green Bay Packers to win+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket
3 modelsVig Gap, Resting Money +1Why 3 models like it
Vig Gap- Chicago can win outright; NFL moneyline variance is large relative to a 4.38-point gap.
Resting Money- book_levels are Packers 3 versus Bears 3: tied, so the thin-at-quote and deep-total measures are the two agreeing signals.
- Directional coherence check: backing Green Bay Packers, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- Venue self-reference only; a stale or unclaimed resting quote can mimic order-flow signal.
Long Way Home- Chicago's official preview has Tyson Bagent starting for injured Caleb Williams; the market still prices the Bears as a road favorite.
- Through four games, Chicago's offense averages +0.097 EPA/play while Green Bay averages -0.107; Bagent's downgrade and Lambeau home field reverse that baseline matchup.
- Most likely loss: Bagent avoids pressure and Chicago's stronger early-season form wins the turnover and field-position battle.
- Chicago Bears −1.5−100%Lost
Taken at −106 on FanDuel
3 modelsNFL Trench Mismatch, NFL Spread Detective +1Why 3 models like it
NFL Trench Mismatch- Primary pass-trench edge is approximately +0.94 before injury adjustment, well above the +0.25 trigger.
- Chicago OL: 68.2 pass-block grade, 71.6 weighted run-block grade, 31 pressures and 1 sack allowed; Green Bay: 50.2, 50.5, 57 and 5.
- Caleb Williams is out, so quarterback replacement risk can overwhelm an otherwise favorable trench edge.
NFL Spread Detective- EPA scores: Chicago +0.649, Green Bay -0.260; EPA Edge +0.909.
- Primary EPA: Chicago +0.577, Green Bay -0.246; Primary EPA Edge +0.823.
- Caleb Williams is confirmed inactive; Tyson Bagent starts, while the EPA sample includes the prior quarterback mix.
Number Earned- Fair spread Chicago -2.5; 54.8% cover versus 52.8% break-even at -112.
- Chicago leads recent five-game EPA/play by roughly 0.20 on offense and 0.21 on defense.
- Caleb Williams is out with a hamstring injury; Bagent's sample is small and his efficiency may regress.
- Chicago Bears to win−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
3 modelsKey Number Pairs, ProphetX Pairs +1Why 3 models like it
Key Number Pairs- Chicago’s recent five-game offense EPA/play is +0.1011 and defense EPA allowed is -0.1471; Green Bay is -0.0740 and +0.0652 respectively.
- The latest PFF team card favors Chicago 72.5 overall and 75.9 offense versus Green Bay at 55.9 and 53.1; the venue ladder points the same direction.
- Most likely loss: Caleb Williams’ hamstring issue keeps him out or limits him; ESPN live lists him Questionable at 5:26 AM PDT, despite his QB1 depth-chart slot.
ProphetX Pairs- Chicago leads current offensive EPA/play 0.0971 to Green Bay -0.1066 and defensive EPA allowed -0.1711 to +0.0319; Pinnacle is reference only.
- Personnel gate passes: Tyson Bagent's start is confirmed by the coach report; Jordan Love is identified in ProphetX's live player board, with neither starter Out/Doubtful.
- Caleb Williams remains officially questionable, even though Tyson Bagent is reported as the starter; any late status change adds uncertainty.
Brewing NFL Ml- Chicago's opponent-adjusted offense EPA/play is 0.097 versus Green Bay's -0.107; defense is -0.171 versus +0.032.
- Bears lead current success rate 48.4% to 43.3% and recent-10 offense EPA/play 0.037 to -0.035.
- Bagent's sample is thin: only 43 season attempts in the PFF season view, so the QB estimate has wide error bars.
- D'Andre Swift under 19.5 rushing attempts+88%Won
Taken at −114 on DraftKings
2 modelsPick With Pink (NFL) player props, Mister PriceWhy 2 models like it
Pick With Pink (NFL) player props- L5: 4/5 under; L10: 9/10; 2026 season: 3/4.
- Recent-average projection is 15.8 attempts versus 19.5: 19.0% under-side edge.
- Snap share ranged from 35.5% to 69.4%, so the committee workload is not fully stable.
Mister Price- Swift's 2026 attempt log is 18, 16, 20, 15: 17.25 per game and under in three of four.
- His 2025 baseline was 13.9 attempts per game; 2026 usage still labels him committee lead rather than workhorse.
- Chicago's 48.9% recent pass-play rate supports a run-heavy script and can create extra carries.
- Chicago Bears exact margin 1-6−100%Lost
Taken at 20¢ on Polymarket US
Exact ChangeUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle's live main spread is Bears -1 (-108), Packers +1 (-102); the moneyline reference devigs to about 52.4% Bears.
- The other Bears buckets modeled at roughly 15.7% (7-14) and 13.6% (15+), making 1-6 the strongest structurally supported Bears tail.
- Exact-margin outcomes are high variance: roughly 77% of modeled mass lands outside this bucket, including ties and other Bears wins.
- D'Andre Swift under 84.5 rushing yards+88%Won
Taken at −113 on DraftKings
Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- L5: 4/5 under; L10: 7/10; 2026 season: 3/4.
- Recent-average projection is 70.2 rushing yards versus 84.5: 16.9% under-side edge.
- Swift is Active on the live prop board, while the Bears' committee-led usage limits a pure workhorse projection.
- Snap share ranged from 35.5% to 69.4%; an unexpected workload spike can erase the under.
Show all 25 picks
- Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers second-quarter total under 17.5+69%Won
Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket US
Opening DriveUp 35% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Both teams average about 2.01 points per drive; the 28.54/31.26-second pace figures imply roughly 5, 6 combined quarter possessions, not an 18-point baseline.
- GB pregame offense is -0.107 EPA/play and Chicago defense is -0.171 EPA/play allowed; Bagent has already thrown a first-quarter interception.
- Q2 retains first-half script residue and end-of-half clock management, but my conservative fitted probability is 70% for 17 or fewer points.
- A short field, explosive play, or defensive score can produce 18+ points from only a few possessions.
- Under total 46.5+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
DriftUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model 53.5% under versus a 49.2% median devigged fair price from FanDuel, BetMGM and Fanatics at exact 46.5: gap 4.3 points.
- Green Bay's offense is -0.1066 EPA/play and Chicago's defense allows -0.1711 EPA/play; combined points per drive is 4.1883.
- Most likely loss: Bagent avoids mistakes while Love and Green Bay's explosive offense turn short fields into touchdowns.
- Game first-half total under 20.5−100%Lost
Taken at 43¢ on Polymarket US
Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Fitted first-half mean is near 20 points from current pace, EPA and points-per-drive inputs; Bears defense EPA allowed is -0.1711.
- Full-game total 46.5 versus 1H 20.5 plus 2H 20.5 leaves a 5.5-point gap; a modest late scoring bump does not fully reconcile it.
- The half distribution scales with the square root of expected drives, not a linear half of full-game variance; that favors a tighter first-half tail.
- A larger-than-normal second-half scoring bump could make the 46.5 full-game anchor more credible and weaken the under.
- Matthew Golden over 56.5 receiving yards+88%Won
Taken at −113 on FanDuel
Target Quality YardsUp 42% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PFF REGPO depth buckets: 20 of 34 targets were medium/deep (58.8%), stable versus 60.5% in his 2025 REGPO baseline; weighted PFF aDOT is 15.0.
- NGS REG, 4 games: 14.15 intended air yards and 2.71-yard separation; separation recovered from 2.10 in Week 3 to 2.51 in Week 4.
- PFF REGPO, 4 games: 1.93 YPRR, 68.9 route grade, 92.8% route rate; he is Green Bay's WR1 by snap share at 84.6%.
- Four current-season games is a narrow FULL-coverage sample; the 2025 NGS separation baseline is only three rows and averaged 3.08 yards.
- Colston Loveland over 39.5 receiving yards−100%Lost
Taken at −113 on FanDuel
NFL Usage AdventureDown 22% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 86.1% average snaps over the last three games; routes stayed high at 32, 28, and 29.
- Targets rose 3→4→9, with receiving yards rising 3→31→57.
- Green Bay allowed +0.0316 defensive EPA per play over its last three games, a favorable recent team-level matchup.
- Loveland has cleared 39.5 only once in the three-game sample; yardage variance is substantial.
- Game total under 47.5+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
Pace LedgerDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- full-game 47.5 is 0.5 above the two 23.5 team-total rungs summing to 47.0.
- full-game 47.5 is 2.5 above twice the 22.5 first-half reference, or 45.0.
- the 2026 feature row has pace inputs 28.54 (GB) and 31.2575 (CHI), with four completed regular-season games informing each side.
- Most likely loss: Green Bay's high +0.2012 PROE turns into efficient explosive passing and the game clears 47.5.
- Green Bay Packers under 23.5 team points−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US
One ColumnUp 27% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- GB offense is -0.1066 EPA/play; Chicago defense allows -0.1711 EPA/play, a strong matchup-specific suppression.
- GB produces 1.846 points per drive versus Chicago's efficient defense; the offense profile is below this threshold.
- The board looks independently modeled, not spread-split: 46.5 total and GB -1.5 imply GB 24, while PM's near-even TT rungs do not reconcile.
- GB's 28.54-second pace can create extra possessions and backdoor points.
- Chicago Bears winning margin 1-6−100%Lost
Taken at 20¢ on Polymarket US
NFL EPA Margin SharpDown 59% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- EPA/play: Chicago offense +0.1011 and defense allowed -0.1471 over the last five; Green Bay is -0.0740 and +0.0652.
- After home field and the Bagent-for-Caleb adjustment, my projected margin is Chicago +2.5 versus a market spread around Green Bay -1.5.
- Polymarket US fee coefficient is 0.0695; effective cost is about 21.1c, still roughly an 18% price edge.
- Caleb Williams is out; Tyson Bagent is slated for his second straight start, and quarterback uncertainty widens the margin distribution.
- Chicago Bears spread +1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US
Morning LedgerDown 106% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Sharp anchor: Pinnacle makes Chicago -1 at -114; shifting to +1.5 adds the key-number cushion.
- 2026 to-date EPA: Chicago +0.097 offense and -0.171 defense; Green Bay -0.107 and +0.032.
- Caleb Williams is officially questionable with a hamstring injury; an inactive or limited quarterback could erase the edge.
- Chicago Bears +9.5−100%Lost
Taken at −113 on DraftKings
Shawn’s NFL Live EV HunterUp 20% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pregame Pinnacle was Packers -4.5; the live spread is now Packers -9.5 after one early touchdown.
- At 7-0 with 15:00 in Q2, Chicago has roughly three quarters to stay within two scores.
- Chicago's prior four-game offense averaged +0.097 EPA/play; Green Bay's prior defense allowed +0.032 EPA/play.
- Green Bay remains on a live drive at the Chicago 6-yard line; a touchdown makes the cushion materially thinner.
- Tucker Kraft under 50.5 receiving yards−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 season average is 37.0 receiving yards (148 on 24 targets) through four games.
- Under 50.5 yards in 3 of Kraft's last 4 games: 42, 26, 15, 65.
- Kraft has a stable TE1 role: 82.2% snap share and 80.0% route rate across four games.
- 8 target workload can overcome the low season average with one explosive catch.
- D'Andre Swift 1+ touchdown+72%Won
Taken at 58¢ on Polymarket US
PaydirtUp 17% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Swift is Chicago's current RB1: 56.1% season snap share and a committee-lead role.
- Kyle Monangai is officially out; latest depth chart leaves Swift first, so his backfield and goal-line opportunity should expand.
- Chicago has produced 19 red-zone attempts and 8 conversions; Green Bay's opponents have converted 12 of 14 red-zone chances.
- Caleb Williams is game-day questionable, and a quarterback change could reduce Chicago's touchdown chances.
- Chicago Bears spread −1−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Directional coherence check: backing Chicago Bears -1, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- This is ProphetX self-reference, not an independent sharp or projection check; resting orders can be stale, strategic, or cancelled.
- Tucker Kraft under 49.5 receiving yards−100%Lost
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 37.0 receiving yards per game across four 2026 games is 25.3% below the 49.5 line.
- Kraft stayed under this number in three of four games; the last three outputs were 15, 26, and 42 yards.
- Chicago's defense is allowing -0.1711 EPA per play to date, the stronger side of this matchup.
- His 65-yard Week 1 game cleared this line; one explosive catch can decide the prop.
- Green Bay Packers 1Q to win+106%Won
Taken at +106 on FanDuel
NFL Division Dogs 1st Q MLDown 100% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- NFC North divisional matchup; Green Bay qualifies as a 1Q underdog at +106.
- Packers average 4.0 first-quarter points per game, meeting the brief's fallback threshold.
- Green Bay is at home, with early familiarity and rivalry intensity supporting scripted execution.
- The 4.0 PPG figure is a full-season fallback, not a verified last-five rate.
- Christian Watson under 15.5 fantasy points−100%Lost
Taken at 64¢ on Kalshi
NFL Fantasy Point Props SimulatorUp 44% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Sleeper PPR is verified as 0.10 per rush/receiving yard, 1 per reception, and 6 per rushing/receiving touchdown.
- Watson’s Sleeper and ESPN PPR projections are 16.00 and 13.83; my blended posterior centers below 15.5.
- Chicago’s defense allows -0.171 EPA per play over the recent window, second-best in this slate’s preview.
- Sleeper’s 16.00-point baseline is already above the line, so the edge is narrow and variance dominates.
- Christian Watson over 4.5 receptions+112%Won
Taken at +112 on FanDuel
NFL HunterV2Down 3% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 32 targets and 20 receptions through four games: 8.0 targets and 5.0 catches per game.
- Watson owns a 78.7% offensive snap share and 146 route snaps this season.
- Green Bay's current-season pass rate is approximately 69%; Jordan Love has 154 attempts and 8 passing touchdowns.
- Chicago's defense has allowed negative EPA per play over its recent five-game window, so efficiency could disappoint.
- D'Andre Swift first touchdown−100%Lost
Taken at 18¢ on Polymarket US
PaydirtUp 17% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection / venue self-reference: Swift leads Chicago RBs with 56.1% projected snaps and is the depth-chart RB1.
- Kyle Monangai is game-day Out, removing the charted RB2 and concentrating early-down and goal-line access.
- Chicago has produced 19 red-zone trips and 8 conversions through four games; Swift is the lead remaining back.
- Caleb Williams is game-day Out; Tyson Bagent replaces him, lowering Chicago's scoring expectation.
- Under 47.5 total points+85%Won
Taken at −118 on DraftKings
Number EarnedDown 26% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projected total is 44.5 points; model win probability is 55.5% versus 54.1% break-even at -118.
- Green Bay averages only 1.67 points per drive to date; Chicago's defense allows -0.171 EPA per play.
- Chicago's four-game defense has allowed 65 points; Green Bay's offense has scored only 73.
- Chicago's defense has a low 54.1 current team grade despite strong EPA, so regression could create scoring.
Questions
Who won Bears vs. Packers?
The Packers won 31–7 on Sunday, Oct 11, 2026.