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Broncos vs. ChargersFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalSoFi Stadium
Broncos2–2
23–17Final
Chargers0–4
Score by period
Team1234T
DEN7301323
LAC0314017

Top model pick, graded

Won

Under 40.5 total 45¢

Key NumberUp 19% return this season · 110 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 28-18 on this game · +30% return

  1. Game total under 42.54 models agree
    +87%Won

    Taken at −115 on FanDuel

    4 modelsPigskin Pete, THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEM +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Pigskin Pete
    • Both offenses are negative in pregame EPA: Chargers -0.2359, Broncos -0.1196.
    • Combined pace is slow: 30.11 and 29.82 seconds per offensive play.
    • Denver's CB1 and CB2 are out, while Chargers defensive injuries could create explosive passing opportunities.
    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEM
    • 42.5 at -115; my 60% under estimate is 6.5 percentage points above the 53.5% price break-even.
    • The teams average only 35.25 combined points through four 2026 games.
    • Denver's cornerback losses Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss can create explosive Chargers pass plays.
    Quantitative +EV Analyst
    • 2026 scoring averages are 18.5 Denver and 16.75 Los Angeles, only 35.25 combined points.
    • Last-10 offensive EPA/play is -0.0914 Denver and -0.1737 Los Angeles; both attacks grade below average.
    • Denver's current defensive EPA allowed is +0.0477/play, and Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss are out.
    NFL HunterV2
    • 35.25 combined points per game through four 2026 regular-season games (DEN 18.5, LAC 16.75).
    • Both offenses are negative in current EPA/play: Denver -0.1196, Los Angeles -0.2359.
    • Denver allows +0.0477 defensive EPA/play, and Pat Surtain II is listed out, raising Chargers scoring upside.
  2. Los Angeles Chargers spread +3.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    3 modelsNFL Luck Regression, Key Number Pairs +1
    Why 3 models like it
    NFL Luck Regression
    • Denver Luck Score +0.859 vs. Chargers -0.345; +1.204 difference clears the 0.50 trigger.
    • Primary luck difference is +0.443 Denver, above the required 0.20; Chargers are the less-lucky side.
    • Chargers also show positive offensive red-zone luck (+2.007), which could regress against this position.
    Key Number Pairs
    • Denver offense (-0.1196 EPA/play) and Chargers defense (-0.0605 EPA allowed) nearly offset the opposing unit gaps; both teams have seven rest days.
    • PFF 2026 card: Denver is 65.8 overall with a 61.5 defense; Los Angeles is 63.5 overall with a 69.6 defense.
    • Most likely loss: Denver wins by four or more, so the key-number protection does not help.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Chargers' defense is -0.0605 EPA/play versus Denver's +0.0477, a 0.1082 EPA/play edge.
    • Personnel check: ESPN expects Bo Nix and Justin Herbert to start; Patrick Surtain II is likely out, weakening Denver's coverage.
    • Chargers' offensive line has multiple injury concerns, and Ladd McConkey's foot injury adds receiving uncertainty.
  3. Denver Broncos spread −3.52 models agree
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsSunday Board Pairs, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Sunday Board Pairs
    • Four-game 2026 sample: Denver offense -0.1196 EPA/play versus Chargers defense -0.0605 allowed; Los Angeles offense -0.2359 versus Denver defense +0.0477.
    • Opponent-adjusted matchup gaps favor Denver by 0.2245 EPA/play before home-field adjustment; rest is 7-7 and the venue is non-neutral.
    • Most likely loss: Los Angeles owns the better PFF defense, 69.6 to Denver's 61.5, and holds Denver below a four-point margin at home.
    Long Way Home
    • Denver's 2026 offense averages -0.120 EPA/play versus the Chargers' -0.236 through four games.
    • Denver is 2-2 with 18.5 points per game; Los Angeles is 0-4 with 16.75 points per game.
    • Denver's defense averages 0.048 EPA allowed/play; Los Angeles averages -0.061, a meaningful counter.
  4. J.K. Dobbins under 13.5 rushing attempts2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −107 on DraftKings

    2 modelsTHE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEM, NFL HunterV2
    Why 2 models like it
    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEM
    • 13.5 attempts at -107; current line is 51.7% implied, versus my 65% estimate.
    • Dobbins has 8, 10, 17, and 11 carries; he stayed under 13.5 in 3 of 4 games.
    • A close or positive Denver script could increase early-down rushing opportunities.
    NFL HunterV2
    • J.K. Dobbins has 46 regular-season carries in four games, averaging 11.5; he had 11 in his latest game.
    • His current-season snap share is 39.3% with only 17.5% route participation; RJ Harvey owns 43.2% and a pass-down role.
    • Short-yardage and goal-line work can push him over despite a modest overall snap share.
  5. Los Angeles Chargers +3.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    2 modelsNFL baby, Number Earned
    Why 2 models like it
    NFL baby
    • Denver's recent net EPA/play advantage is 0.0794, roughly 4.8 points over 60 plays before home-field adjustment.
    • Current-season feature inputs make the teams nearly even on net efficiency, not a 3.5-point Denver road edge.
    • The 0.0794 EPA/play comparison is a short, partly prior-season window rather than a clean opponent-adjusted projection.
    Number Earned
    • Model fair spread: Denver -1.0, giving Los Angeles a 55% cover probability at +3.5.
    • Current scoring margins are Denver -5.0 and Los Angeles -9.8, but the three-point home adjustment materially narrows the gap.
    • Denver's 2-2 record and stronger current offensive EPA still support the favorite; a Broncos lead creates fourth-quarter cover pressure.
  6. Courtland Sutton over 38.5 receiving yardsHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    NFL Regression RadarDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2025 baseline: 8.20 yards/target; 5.67 targets/game over the last three implies 46.5 yards.
    • Snap share stayed high at 72.6%, 86.6%, and 74.6%; route opportunity is stable.
    • Projection is 20.8% above the live 38.5-yard line; FanDuel is -113.
    • 2026 efficiency has collapsed to 0.69 yards per route, versus 1.53 last season.
Show all 38 picks
  1. Los Angeles Chargers exact margin 7-14Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 6¢ on Polymarket US

    Exact ChangeUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • live Pinnacle main spread is Denver -6.5 (-110), establishing a Denver-favored center.
    • The 7-14 bin contains key numbers 7, 10, 14, which generic smoothing can underweight.
    • Underdog direction conflicts with the sharp anchor; Denver leads 7-0 late in Q1.
  2. Under 40.5 total
    +122%Won

    Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 8% last 7 days
  3. Los Angeles Chargers spread over 2.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 32¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 8% last 7 days
  4. Denver Broncos first-half winner
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rest gap is 0 days: Denver and Los Angeles both enter on 7 days, so the signal is efficiency rather than fatigue.
    • The strongest brief signal, a rest mismatch, is absent; both teams have identical 7-day rest.
  5. Game second-half total over 21.5
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 43.5 full-game total minus 20.5 first-half anchor implies roughly 23 second-half points.
    • Late scoring bump supports allocating more than half the expected points to the second half.
    • Square-root drive scaling keeps half-game variance wider than a linear half of full-game variance.
    • the half ladder is not a sharp reference; the arithmetic edge is not independently modeled.
  6. Los Angeles Chargers first-half winner
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 38¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model probability: 44%; current full-game anchors lean Chargers (sportsbook spread LAC -3.5; Polymarket Denver +2.5 at 68.5¢) rather than a Denver first-half 55¢ outcome.
    • Near-equal pace (DEN 29.82, LAC 30.11 seconds/play) and half-drive scoring inputs produce a near-coinflip half, with home-field lifting LAC above 38%.
    • Square-root scaling: first-half margin SD scales with the square root of drive count, not a linear half of full-game variance; mechanical halving misstates half-winner tails.
    • Denver's offense has been more efficient, while the Chargers' -0.236 offensive EPA/play leaves a real path to a slow home start.
  7. Tre Harris over 49.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on DraftKings

    NFL Usage AdventureDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 63.0 receiving-yard average across his last three games: 53, 76, 60.
    • Snap share rose/stayed strong at 82.1%, 58.0%, 93.0%; route snaps were 25, 26, 41.
    • Live DraftKings line is 49.5 yards at -114, only 78.6% of that three-game average.
    • Three-game production sample is small; one 53-yard outing barely clears the current line.
  8. First-half total under 20.5 points
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Split Decision (Kalshi 1H)Down 52% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full-game sharp total is 41.5; the 47, 49% first-half base is roughly 19.5, 20.3 points before script adjustment.
    • Recent first-half scoring averaged 10.75 combined points versus 35.25 full-game points across these teams’ four games.
    • Denver and Los Angeles combined for only 5 of 8 first-two-drive scoring opportunities; early-down pass rates were 47.6% and 33.3%.
    • Four-game opening samples are noisy; two early touchdowns or a defensive score can break the under quickly.
  9. Justin Herbert under 201.5 passing yards
    +90%Won

    Taken at −111 on DraftKings

    Shoulders of GiantsDown 19% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • LAC’s current O-line state is compromised: starting tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater are out; Branson Taylor is questionable.
    • Pass trench: LAC OL grades 55.3 with 42 pressures allowed versus Denver DL grade 69.1 and 69 pressures.
    • Herbert’s 119 attempts produced 816 yards; LAC is -0.236 offensive EPA/play and only 1.425 points per drive.
    • Herbert averaged 204 passing yards per game and cleared 201.5 in two of four starts.
  10. Total points under 42.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Sunday Board PairsUp 33% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Four-game to-date sample: Denver offense -0.1196 EPA/play and Los Angeles offense -0.2359; both offenses are below zero.
    • Pace is slow on both sides: Denver 29.8225 seconds/play and Los Angeles 30.11; PROE is +0.1387 and +0.0762.
    • PFF defenses grade 69.6 for Los Angeles and 61.5 for Denver; recent five-game defensive EPA allowed is negative for both.
    • Most likely loss: Denver's +0.0477 defensive EPA allowed lets Los Angeles convert explosive drives and push the total above 42.5.
  11. J.K. Dobbins over 50.5 rushing yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    NFL Regression RadarDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2025 baseline: 5.05 yards/carry; 12.67 carries/game over the last three implies 64.0 rushing yards.
    • Projection is 26.7% above the live 50.5-yard line; FanDuel is -113.
    • Dobbins owns only a 39.3% season snap share and is not a workhorse role.
  12. Los Angeles Chargers under 19.5 team points
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • LAC offense is -0.2359 EPA/play with 1.425 points per drive through four games.
    • Trey Lance is officially doubtful; LAC also loses three offensive linemen and Quentin Johnston.
    • SoFi forecast has 15, 20 mph southwest wind, gusts up to 30 mph; both teams show positive pass rates.
    • Denver's defense allows +0.0477 EPA/play, so a weak Chargers offense still has a favorable matchup.
  13. Game total under 41.5
    +81%Won

    Taken at −124 on DraftKings

    Shawn’s NFL Live EV HunterUp 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • At 7-0 with 1:38 left in Q1, only 20 combined offensive plays have produced one touchdown.
    • Chargers have -0.645 EPA/play, 37.5% success and 0 explosive plays through 8 plays.
    • Pregame last-10 points per drive were modest: Denver 1.738, Los Angeles 1.284; the early touchdown followed a Chargers fumble at LAC 36.
    • The live efficiency sample is only 20 plays, so one explosive touchdown can erase the small edge.
  14. Omarion Hampton first touchdown scorerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +950 on DraftKings

    NFL First-TD EdgeDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 12% estimated first-TD probability; fair price about +733 versus DraftKings +950 (9.5% raw implied).
    • Chargers have 12 red-zone trips and 7 touchdowns; Denver allows +0.0477 defensive EPA per play, while LAC's 1.425 points/drive is the weaker offensive input.
    • Hampton owns the Chargers' RB1 room rank, 48.9% snap share, 59 carries, 30 zone attempts and 28 gap attempts through four games.
    • The four-game Chargers offense is inefficient: -0.2359 EPA/play, 40.1% success rate and 1.425 points/drive.
  15. J.K. Dobbins first touchdownLong shot
    +733%Won

    Taken at 12¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dobbins is Denver's declared RB1 and a committee-lead, with 49 season run snaps.
    • Denver has produced 7 touchdowns from 11 red-zone trips; this is the usage-based opportunity proxy, not a literal goal-line-role field.
    • Chargers opponents have reached the red zone 15 times and converted 9; a 60% allowed conversion rate supports touchdown chances.
    • Denver's committee remains real: RJ Harvey's current snap share is 43.2%, versus Dobbins' 39.3%.
  16. J.K. Dobbins 1+ touchdowns
    +170%Won

    Taken at 37¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Denver generated 11 red-zone trips and converted 7 through four games.
    • Dobbins is the declared RB1 and usage leader labels him committee_lead at a 39.3% snap share.
    • Chargers opponents produced 9 red-zone scores on 15 trips over four games (60%).
    • Dobbins has 0 rushing touchdowns through 46 attempts this season.
  17. Courtland Sutton under 38.5 receiving yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    +EV Volume HandicapperUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Sutton has 86 yards on 22 targets, averaging 3.91 yards per target through four games.
    • His receiving-yardage game log is 11, 25, 46, and 4; he stayed under 38.5 in 3 of 4.
    • Sutton is active, Denver's top charted WR, and owns a 77.7% snap share.
    • Chargers are without key defensive backs, potentially creating softer coverage for Sutton.
  18. Denver Broncos team total under 23.5
    +78%Won

    Taken at −128 on FanDuel

    +EV Volume HandicapperUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Denver scored 10, 20, 30, and 14; under 23.5 in 3 of 4 games.
    • Denver's pregame offense is -0.1196 EPA/play, 40.6% success, and 1.65 points per drive.
    • Chargers defense is -0.0605 EPA/play allowed through the Oct. 4 cutoff.
    • Chargers have major defensive absences, including Derwin James Jr. and Donte Jackson.
  19. Bo Nix under 1.5 passing touchdowns
    +78%Won

    Taken at −128 on FanDuel

    Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 under 3/4 (75%); L5 under 4/5 (80%); L10 under 8/10 (80%).
    • Recent-game projection averages 1.25 passing touchdowns this season and 1.20 across the L10 versus a 1.5 line.
    • Denver averages 18.5 points through four games and ranks at -0.091 EPA per offensive play recently.
    • Broncos-Chargers H2H is only 2/4 under 1.5 passing touchdowns for Nix.
  20. Over 42.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels: over 3 versus under 3; two measures agree, while the level count is neutral.
    • Directional check: backing over, the thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it side, leg matches; ProphetX is the only reference.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate: 3 each; this is a two-of-three signal, not a three-measure confirmation.
  21. Denver Broncos −3
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are tied 3-3, so the signal qualifies on thinness plus depth but lacks level-count corroboration.
    • The exact-price gap is smaller than on the moneyline, and the depth advantage is modest.
  22. Denver Broncos to win
    +56%Won

    Taken at 64¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are tied 3-3, so the signal qualifies on two of three measures, not all three.
    • Chargers still have the larger exact-price stake, so the quote-level action may be the stronger immediate signal.
  23. Los Angeles Chargers spread +7.5Favorite
    +52%Won

    Taken at 66¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • +7.5 wins through a seven-point loss; the half-point line cannot push.
    • Exact seven-point NFL margin occurred 7.7469% historically (131 observations, 2020-25 regular/postseason sample).
    • ProphetX charges only 0.47 cents more for Chargers +7.5 (66.22c) than +7 (65.75c), despite +7 pushing at exactly seven.
    • No independent game-projection edge; Chargers still lose both contracts by eight or more.
  24. Courtland Sutton under 39.5 receiving yards
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Sutton averages 21.5 receiving yards over four games, 45.6% below the 39.5 line.
    • He stayed under 39.5 in three of four games, with results of 11, 25, 46, and 4 yards.
    • Los Angeles' season-to-date defensive EPA allowed is -0.0605, the stronger defensive profile in this matchup.
    • Sutton still owns the top Denver receiver role and has received four to seven targets each game.
  25. Omarion Hampton over 41.5 rushing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 59.5-yard average across four 2026 games is 43.4% above the 41.5 line.
    • Hampton cleared 41.5 in all four games: 43, 94, 56, and 45 yards.
    • Denver's season-to-date defensive EPA allowed is +0.0477, a softer matchup than Los Angeles' own defense.
    • Hampton is in a committee and his 48.9% snap share leaves touchdown and pass-down work elsewhere.
  26. Game first-half total under 21.5 points
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rest is even at 7 days each; no short-week edge, so the projection rests on efficiency and script.
    • Combined points per drive is 3.0751; similar pace, 29.82 and 30.11 seconds per play, supports a modest possession count.
    • Pinnacle full-game 41.5 scaled to 19.1 first-half points using possession share and scripted-premium logic.
    • Equal rest removes the brief's strongest first-half lever; this is a projection lean, not a rest play.
  27. Los Angeles Chargers under 42.5 total points
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • both offenses are negative through four games: Los Angeles -0.2359 and Denver -0.1196 EPA/play.
    • Los Angeles allows -0.0605 defensive EPA/play; both teams sit below 10.7% explosive rate.
    • sportsbook totals split 41.5/42.5; the 42.5 venue number offers the better under cushion, reference only.
    • Denver's offense is more efficient than Los Angeles's and produces 1.65 points per drive, so one side can carry the total.
  28. Game first-half total under 21.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Fresh inputs show slow pace (Chargers 30.11, Broncos 29.82 seconds/play) and low early points per drive (Chargers home 1.238, Broncos away 1.139 across two games each).
    • The half distribution uses square-root drive scaling: variance grows with sqrt(drives), not a linear half of full-game variance, leaving a wider but lower-centered first-half range.
    • Current points-per-drive splits are only two home/away games per team, so early-season efficiency is thin-sample.
  29. Los Angeles Chargers +4.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −128 on DraftKings

    NFL Opponent-Adjusted ATS ModelDown 36% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model fair spread is Denver -2.0, 1.5 points below the -3.5 consensus/sharp market.
    • 2026 PIT profile: Denver offense -0.120 EPA/play versus Chargers -0.236, but Chargers defense -0.061 versus Denver +0.048.
    • Denver's 2025 margin prior was +5.29 versus Los Angeles +1.65; weighting the prior heavily reduces the early-season Denver edge.
    • Los Angeles has Joe Alt out and a reshuffled tackle/guard chart; that trench disruption can expose Herbert.
  30. Los Angeles Chargers 1Q to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +124 on FanDuel

    NFL Division Dogs 1st Q MLDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Chargers average 5.0 first-quarter points across their four 2026 games, clearing the 4.0 scripted-scoring threshold.
    • Chargers own a +1.5 average first-quarter scoring differential in that four-game sample.
    • Denver has allowed +0.091 EPA/play in Q1 across 60 defensive plays in its four 2026 games, above the -0.05 gate.
    • The first-quarter sample is only four games, so the scoring rate is a full-season fallback rather than a true five-game form sample.
  31. Los Angeles Chargers by 15 or moreLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 10¢ on Kalshi

    NFL EPA Margin SharpDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model projects Denver +0.8 points, 4.3 points toward Denver versus the Chargers -3.5 market spread.
    • 2026 EPA through four regular-season games: Denver net -0.167/play versus Los Angeles -0.175/play; the recent 10-game blend also favors Denver.
    • 25 data puts 31.0% of non-tie games in the 15+ margin band; key-number mass is explicitly retained rather than using a smooth normal tail.
    • The contract needs a Chargers blowout even though my model center is only Denver +0.8.
  32. Bo Nix under 223.5 passing yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 under 3/4 (75%); L5 under 4/5 (80%); L10 under 6/10 (60%).
    • Recent-game projection: 204.8 season average and 192.0 L5 average versus 223.5.
    • Nix has played 100% of offensive snaps in all four games; Denver's recent offense is -0.091 EPA/play.
    • L10 is only 60%; Denver has produced 288 passing yards in one of four games.

Questions

Who won Broncos vs. Chargers?

The Broncos won 23–17 on Sunday, Oct 11, 2026.

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