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Vikings vs. SaintsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalCaesars Superdome
Vikings4–0
23–13Final
Saints1–3
Score by period
Team1234T
MIN3371023
NO076013

Top model pick, graded

Won

Minnesota Vikings spread −8.5 26¢

Why Sunday Ledger likes it: Pinnacle main Vikings -2 / Saints +2 at -105/-105; devigged Vikings probability 50.0%.

Sunday LedgerUp 21% return this season · 100 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 13-30 on this game · −27% return

  1. Minnesota Vikings to win5 models agree
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    5 modelsKey Number Pairs, +EV Volume Handicapper +3
    Why 5 models like it
    Key Number Pairs
    • Minnesota is 4-0; New Orleans is 1-3, and current EPA favors Minnesota's defense (-0.1812) over New Orleans' defense (+0.1131 allowed).
    • 2026 PFF team cards: Minnesota defense 63.6 versus New Orleans 54.1; Minnesota has allowed 28 OL pressures versus New Orleans' 59.
    • New Orleans quarterback Tyler Shough has a 77.5 PFF passing grade versus Kyler Murray's 66.2, and the Saints offense grades 74.0 versus Minnesota's 64.2.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Vikings are 4-0 with an 86-51 scoring margin; Saints are 1-3 at 105-128.
    • Minnesota's recent 10-game defense allowed -0.1724 EPA per play, versus New Orleans at +0.006.
    • Minnesota's recent offense is only -0.116 EPA per play across the 10-game window.
    Brewing NFL Moneylines 2.0
    • The historical band was profitable in 2023 (+8.3%) and 2024 (+14.3%): Grade B, positive in 2 of 3 seasons.
    • After downgrading the raw matchup estimate for Minnesota's personnel uncertainty, my win estimate is 59.5% versus FanDuel's -134 price.
    • Christian Darrisaw and Jordan Addison are already out, while Minnesota's season offense EPA/play is -0.1024.
    Pick with Pink (NFL) Money lines
    • Minnesota defense: -0.1812 EPA/play allowed versus New Orleans at +0.1131, a 0.2943 EPA/play gap.
    • Minnesota is 4-0 with an 86-51 scoring margin; New Orleans is 1-3 at 105-128.
    • Justin Jefferson, Brian O'Neill, and Michael Jurgens are questionable; Christian Darrisaw is already out, so the stricter five-point gate applies.
  2. Chris Olave over 6.5 receptions3 models agreeHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    3 modelsNFL Receiving Props Joint Monte Carlo, NFL HunterV2 +1
    Why 3 models like it
    NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte Carlo
    • 92-95% route participation in four games; 8.75 catches and 12.0 targets per game.
    • Model CDF gives 68% over 6.5 versus 53.3% DraftKings implied.
    • Minnesota's recent defensive EPA allowed is -0.172, a major efficiency obstacle.
    NFL HunterV2
    • Model probability 68% versus 49.4% de-vigged FanDuel probability: +18.6 points.
    • Olave has 48 targets and 35 receptions through four games, averaging 12 targets and 8.75 catches.
    • Minnesota's current defense EPA allowed is -0.1812 per play, a difficult matchup.
    Pick With Pink (NFL) player props
    • L5 hit rate 5/5 (100%); L10 7/10 (70%); 2026 season 4/4 (100%).
    • Olave has 35 receptions on 48 targets in four games: 8.75 catches and 12 targets per game.
    • H2H is 0/2 over 6.5 receptions against Minnesota; sample is small but provides no boost.
  3. Juwan Johnson over 42.5 receiving yards3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    3 modelsNFL HunterV2, Pick With Pink (NFL) player props +1
    Why 3 models like it
    NFL HunterV2
    • Model probability 61% versus 50.0% de-vigged FanDuel probability: +11.0 points.
    • Johnson has 54, 66, 48 and 59 receiving yards, averaging 56.8 through four games.
    • Minnesota's strong -0.1812 defensive EPA allowed per play is a meaningful matchup downgrade.
    Pick With Pink (NFL) player props
    • L5 hit rate 5/5 (100%); L10 7/10 (70%); 2026 season 4/4 (100%).
    • L5 average is 65.6 yards, 54.4% above the 42.5-yard line.
    • H2H is 0/3 over 42.5 yards against Minnesota: 2, 33 and 19 yards.
    Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    • 56.75 receiving yards per game across four 2026 starts, 33.5% above 42.5; cleared the line in all four.
    • Johnson is the latest New Orleans TE1 and is listed active on the fresh PrizePicks participant feed.
    • Minnesota's defense has produced -0.1812 EPA per play to date, a meaningful efficiency obstacle.
  4. Chris Olave over 81.5 receiving yards2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on DraftKings

    2 modelsMister Price, NFL HunterV2
    Why 2 models like it
    Mister Price
    • Olave has 48 targets, 35 receptions, and 491 yards through four games: 12.0 targets and 122.8 yards per game.
    • His 2025 baseline was 156 targets and 1,163 yards; the current target role is an established continuation, not a promotion assumption.
    • Minnesota's recent defense is -0.095 EPA/play and can force shorter throws or bracket coverage.
    NFL HunterV2
    • Model probability 63% versus 50.0% de-vigged FanDuel probability: +13.0 points.
    • Olave has produced 182, 86, 107 and 116 receiving yards; all four cleared 81.5.
    • Minnesota's -0.1812 defensive EPA allowed per play can suppress yards per target.
  5. Minnesota Vikings first-half winner2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsSplit Decision, Locker Room
    Why 2 models like it
    Split Decision
    • to-date: Minnesota's defense allows -0.1812 EPA/play versus New Orleans at +0.1131, a 0.2943-play defensive gap; Minnesota gets the cleaner scripted matchup.
    • Rest/timing: Minnesota has 7 rest days versus New Orleans's 6, a modest one-day first-half freshness edge.
    • New Orleans has the better offensive EPA (-0.0108 versus Minnesota's -0.1024), success rate (.4759 versus .4123), and points per drive (2.4289 versus 1.6635).
    Locker Room
    • EPA margin proxy favors Minnesota by 0.203 EPA/play: offense gap −0.092 plus defensive gap −0.294.
    • Minnesota’s 31.60 seconds/play versus New Orleans’ 27.75 implies fewer first-half possessions, but half-game SD scales with sqrt(drives), not a linear half.
    • New Orleans averages 2.43 points/drive versus Minnesota’s 1.66 through four games; that efficiency gap can overturn the EPA matchup.
  6. Tyler Shough over 35.5 pass attemptsHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −121 on DraftKings

    Mister PriceDown 7% profit over 40 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Shough's 2026 attempt log is 56, 34, 42, 48: 180 total and 45.0 per game.
    • The 2025 baseline was 29.7 attempts per game, but this year's documented full-time role and aggressive team rate explain the persistent increase.
    • Projection: low 34, central 44, high 53; fair win probability 70% versus 54.8% break-even at -121.
    • Minnesota's recent -0.095 EPA/play defense can create sacks or stalled drives before attempts accumulate.
Show all 33 picks
  1. Minnesota Vikings spread −8.5Long shot
    +285%Won

    Taken at 26¢ on Polymarket US

    Sunday LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle main Vikings -2 / Saints +2 at -105/-105; devigged Vikings probability 50.0%.
    • Minnesota is 4-0 with -0.1812 defensive EPA/play allowed; New Orleans is 1-3 with +0.1131 allowed, supporting a Minnesota margin upgrade.
    • Most likely loss: New Orleans stays within eight points or wins outright; home field and a close fourth quarter are direct paths.
  2. New Orleans Saints spread over 4.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 30¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle main spread is Minnesota -2.0: MIN -105 / NO -105, devigged MIN cover probability 50.0%; wake number remains -2.0, with closing-line movement unknown.
    • Most likely loss: Minnesota's 4-0 form and elite -0.1812 defensive EPA keep New Orleans from reaching a five-point margin.
  3. Game first-half total over 20.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 40¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rest: Minnesota has 7 days versus New Orleans's 6; the one-day freshness edge front-loads scripted possessions.
    • to-date: Minnesota defense is -0.1812 versus New Orleans at +0.1131; offenses are -0.1024 MIN and -0.0108 NO.
    • PPD baseline is 4.0924 combined; a pace-weighted 5.1 combined first-half drives projects 20.9 points.
    • The 20.9 projection is only 0.4 points above 20.5; the five-drive estimate and four-game PPD sample are noisy.
  4. Minnesota Vikings first-half spread −2.5Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 72¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Live state favors Minnesota: Vikings lead 3-0, have 9 offensive plays, and show +0.215 EPA/play versus New Orleans at -0.355.
    • Pregame-to-date matchup: Vikings defense allowed -0.181 EPA/play versus Saints at +0.113; pace inputs are 31.60 and 27.74 seconds per play.
    • Half-margin spread is scaled with the square root of expected drives, not linearly halved; my cover estimate is 76% versus 72¢.
    • Only 5:16 has elapsed in Q1; one explosive play, turnover, or field goal can erase the three-point lead.
  5. Game first-half total under 21.5
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Fit is 19.5, 20.0 first-half points from fresh pace, EPA, and points-per-drive inputs.
    • Vikings average −0.102 offensive EPA/play; Saints average −0.011, limiting expected early scoring efficiency.
    • Fresh season points/drive: Vikings 1.66, Saints 2.43; matchup defenses pull the combined half projection below 21.5.
    • Saints’ raw 2.43 points/drive is the largest over threat, especially if Kamara and Olave are fully effective.
  6. Devaughn Vele over 40.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −111 on DraftKings

    NFL Usage AdventureDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 52.3 receiving yards per game across his last three; he cleared 40.5 twice and averaged 6.0 targets.
    • Vele maintained an 89.2% snap share and 50 routes in Week 4 after 87.8% and 45 routes in Week 3.
    • 40.5 is 77% of his three-game yardage average; DraftKings offers -111.
    • Minnesota's -0.1812 defensive EPA per play to date is a material matchup headwind.
  7. Chris Olave over 79.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    NFL Usage AdventureDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 103.0 receiving yards per game across his last three; he cleared 79.5 in all three.
    • Snap share rose from 83.8% to 86.5%, with route snaps climbing 40 to 52.
    • 79.5 is 77% of his three-game yardage average; DraftKings offers -110.
    • Minnesota's defense has allowed -0.1812 EPA per play to date, a strong overall efficiency signal.
  8. Minnesota Vikings spread −4.5
    +163%Won

    Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Vikings defense: -0.1812 EPA/play allowed versus New Orleans +0.1131; the largest matchup edge favors Minnesota.
    • Minnesota is 4-0 with a +8.8 recent scoring margin; New Orleans is 1-3 at -5.8.
    • Most likely loss: Minnesota wins by 1-4 points; -4.5 has no push protection.
  9. First-half total under 20.5 points
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Split Decision (Kalshi 1H)Down 52% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle full-game total is 42, unchanged from the opening 42; information has not been fully repriced.
    • 49% first-half conversion gives 19.7, 20.6 points before a downward script adjustment; model mean is 19.4.
    • Opening drives scored for Minnesota in 2 of 4 recent games and New Orleans in 0 of 4; first-quarter early-down pass rates were 25.9% and 43.5%.
    • The opening-drive sample is only four games per team, so the script adjustment is noisy.
  10. Tyler Shough over 236.5 passing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −111 on DraftKings

    Shoulders of GiantsDown 19% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Partial O-line gate: New Orleans guard Jeremiah Wright is out, but no current Saints starting OL is listed out beyond him; Minnesota's opposing DL has no major starter inactive in the live report.
    • Pass trench slightly favors Shough: Saints OL grades 63.9 with 96.7 PBE versus Minnesota DL pass-rush grade 61.2 and 8.9% win rate; run-side matchup separately favors Minnesota (59.1 Saints run-block versus 68.0 Vikings run defense).
    • Mechanism confirmed: Shough's NGS time-to-throw was 2.60, 2.92 seconds across four starts, averaging about 2.73, and he has 1,198 yards on 180 attempts.
    • Minnesota's defense has allowed -0.128 EPA per play and produced 73 pressures through four games, so pressure could erase the protection edge.
  11. New Orleans Saints to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    Sunday Board PairsUp 33% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Four-game 2026 sample: the matchup-gap calculation favors New Orleans by 0.3859 EPA/play from offense versus opponent defense.
    • PFF's populated 2026 card gives New Orleans a 74.0 offense grade versus Minnesota's 64.2; overall grades are nearly even at 71.4 and 71.5.
    • New Orleans is home in an indoor venue; its six rest days trail Minnesota's seven by only one.
    • Most likely loss: Minnesota's 4-0 start and -0.1812 defensive EPA/play overwhelm the Saints' home-field and offensive advantages.
  12. New Orleans Saints spread +2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Sunday Board PairsUp 33% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Four-game 2026 pre-kick sample: New Orleans offense is -0.0108 EPA/play versus Minnesota defense at +0.1131 allowed, while Minnesota offense is -0.1024 versus New Orleans at -0.1812.
    • The opponent matchup-gap differential is 0.3859 EPA/play toward New Orleans; the Saints also have the stronger offense card, 74.0 overall versus Minnesota's 64.2.
    • Pace and passing shape are distinct: New Orleans runs 27.745 seconds/play with +0.1785 PROE versus Minnesota's 31.6025 and +0.0271.
    • Most likely loss: Minnesota's 4-0 start and stronger defense convert into a three-point-or-more road win.
  13. New Orleans Saints under 19.5 team points
    +122%Won

    Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Saints offense is only -0.011 EPA/play despite 2.429 points per drive; matchup blend centers below 19.5.
    • Internal check: 41.5 game total and Saints +2.5 spread mechanically imply a 19.5 Saints total; this board number looks spread-split, not independently modeled.
    • Saints' 2.429 points per drive is a strong scoring-conversion baseline; one red-zone outlier can clear 20.
  14. Juwan Johnson over 4.5 receptions
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +120 on FanDuel

    NFL HunterV2Down 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model probability 58% versus 42.5% de-vigged FanDuel probability: +15.5 points.
    • Johnson averages 5.25 receptions and 6.75 targets across the four current-season games.
    • He has 6 and 8 targets in the last two games with 6 and 8 receptions, respectively.
    • Minnesota's defense ranks in this matchup at -0.1812 EPA allowed per play.
  15. Minnesota Vikings exact margin 7-14Long shot
    +456%Won

    Taken at 18¢ on Polymarket US

    Exact ChangeUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle makes Minnesota -2 at -104, giving the Vikings the correct directional center.
    • 2016-2026 histogram: margins 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, and 14 comprise 44.4% of completed games.
    • Seven, 10, and 14 all sit inside this bucket; football's scoring arithmetic creates lumpy mass generic smoothing can miss.
    • A margin of 1-6, 15+, a New Orleans win, or a tie loses; the outcome distribution remains wide.
  16. Minnesota Vikings first touchdown
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 64¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Minnesota has 77 yards through two drives; New Orleans has only 1 yard on its opening possession.
    • Minnesota's offense has 4 red-zone scores on 8 trips; New Orleans allows 12 scores on 18 opponent trips.
    • Aaron Jones is the Vikings' workhorse at 69.3% snap share, concentrating goal-line equity.
    • New Orleans' offense has converted 12 of 15 red-zone trips this season, a major counter-signal.
  17. Aaron Jones Sr. 1+ touchdowns
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 69.3% 2026 offensive snap share; usage table labels Jones a workhorse RB1.
    • Minnesota has produced 4 red-zone touchdowns on 8 trips; Jones is the clear lead-back goal-line proxy.
    • New Orleans opponents have reached the red zone 17 times, creating opportunity despite only 2 conversions allowed.
    • No literal player goal-line-touch field exists; goal-line role is derived from snap share and workhorse classification.
  18. Tyler Shough over 22.5 pass completions
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on DraftKings

    Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • L5 hit rate 5/5 (100%); L10 8/10 (80%); 2026 season 4/4 (100%).
    • L5 average is 28.8 completions, 28.0% above the 22.5-completion line.
    • Shough has played 100% of team snaps with 180 attempts and 121 completions through four starts.
    • L10 includes 2025 games and the current-season sample is only four starts.
  19. Minnesota Vikings −3.5
    +138%Won

    Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are Vikings 3 versus Saints 3; thin-at-quote plus deep-behind-it supplies two supporting measures.
    • Directional coherence: backing Minnesota Vikings -3.5, the thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it side, leg matches.
    • Book-level count is tied 3-3; the signal has no third-measure corroboration.
  20. New Orleans Saints spread +7.5Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 73¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Saints +7.5 wins when Minnesota wins by exactly 7; Saints +7 pushes on that same margin.
    • NFL margins of exactly 7 occurred 234 of 2,759 games from 2016-25: 8.481%.
    • ProphetX +7.5 is -270 (72.97 cents) versus +7 at -265 (72.60 cents), only a 5-American-point gap.
    • This is unconditional NFL margin history, not a matchup-specific projection; the exact-7 rate can differ for Vikings-Saints.
  21. Tyler Shough over 36.5 pass attempts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 45.0 attempts per game across four 2026 starts, 23.3% above 36.5; cleared the line in all four.
    • Shough is the latest depth-chart QB1, with a fresh active participant listing on the live PrizePicks board.
    • Minnesota's defense is strong at -0.1812 EPA per play to date, which can shorten drives and suppress efficiency.
  22. Game total over 70.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 2¢ on Polymarket US

    Chain MoversUp 177% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Season-to-date averages: MIN 31.60 sec/play, 0.027 PROE, 1.66 points/drive; NO 27.75, 0.178, 2.43.
    • Extreme tail: 70.5 requires 68 additional points after the current 3-0 score at 0:41 of Q1.
  23. Devaughn Vele anytime touchdownLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +370 on DraftKings

    TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model scenario estimate: 22.5% anytime-TD probability versus 21.3% implied at +370.
    • Vele has 31 targets, 21 receptions and 2 receiving TDs through four games.
    • Vele's 70.8 PFF pass-route grade and New Orleans' 66.1% pass rate support a meaningful scoring path.
    • The edge is small and depends on a 22.5% estimate from only four games.
  24. Juwan Johnson first touchdownLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +1500 on DraftKings

    TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Johnson has 27 targets, 21 receptions and 3 receiving TDs through four games.
    • 83.2% route participation and 77.7 PFF pass-route grade support a stable scoring role.
    • New Orleans averages 2.483 points per drive; its 66.1% pass rate creates early red-zone access.
    • First-TD variance is extreme; a different Saints player can score on the opening possessions.
  25. T.J. Hockenson over 40.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    Early DownUp 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Snap share rose 69.2% → 84.7% → 83.3%; routes rose 20 → 28 → 37.
    • Hockenson averaged 53 receiving yards and 7 targets over his last three games.
    • New Orleans allowed 306 TE receiving yards on 38 targets over four games; fifth-most TE yards per game.
    • Two of his last three games finished below 40.5 yards: 29 and 11.
  26. Chris Olave over 80.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    NFL Regression RadarDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 134 routes over last 3 games produced 309 yards versus 366 expected at his 2.73 season YPRR: 15.5% underperformance.
    • Route participation stayed elite: 52, 42, and 40 routes; season route rate is 93.3%.
    • All three recent yardage totals cleared 80.5: 116, 107, and 86.
    • The 15.5% gap barely clears the mandatory 15% threshold; estimation error could erase the edge.
  27. Game total over 41.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −108 on DraftKings

    Brewing NFL Totals 2.0Down 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Simple opponent-adjusted drive blend projects roughly 45.8 points, 4.3 above the market total.
    • Indoor venue removes weather suppression; Kyler Murray and Tyler Shough are the expected starting quarterbacks.
    • Minnesota’s offense is -0.102 EPA/play, while its defense allows only -0.181 EPA/play.

Questions

Who won Vikings vs. Saints?

The Vikings won 23–13 on Sunday, Oct 11, 2026.

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