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Bengals vs. DolphinsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalHard Rock Stadium
Bengals2–2
31–24Final
Dolphins0–4
Score by period
Team1234T
CIN7147331
MIA7031424

Top model pick, graded

Won

Over total 46.5 44¢

Key NumberUp 19% return this season · 110 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 13-27 on this game · −35% return

  1. Cincinnati Bengals spread −73 models agree
    0%Push

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsDrift, NFL Opponent-Adjusted ATS Model +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Drift
    • Model 53.5% vs 50.0% exact-rung devigged median from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetOnline; gap 3.5p.
    • Cincinnati also leads points per drive 2.423 to 1.257; rest is even at seven days.
    • Most likely loss: Miami +7 covers if Cincinnati's questionable Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are limited or inactive.
    NFL Opponent-Adjusted ATS Model
    • Model fair spread: Cincinnati -9.5, a 2.5-point gap versus the consensus -7.
    • 2026 PIT form: Bengals +0.1183 offensive EPA/play and 0.4947 success rate; Miami -0.2135 and 0.3692.
    • Miami home field plus the key seven creates meaningful push and backdoor-cover risk.
    Quantitative +EV Analyst
    • Model cover estimate: Cincinnati 56%, versus 52.2% break-even at -109.
    • Last-10 net EPA gap favors Cincinnati by 0.548 per play: Bengals +0.2077, Miami -0.3404.
    • The last-10 sample includes only four current-season games and six prior-season games.
  2. Cincinnati Bengals −73 models agree
    0%Push

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    3 modelsNFL Trench Mismatch, NFL Spread Detective +1
    Why 3 models like it
    NFL Trench Mismatch
    • PFF 2026 OL pass-block grade: Cincinnati 67.1 versus Miami 57.4, a 9.7-point unit gap.
    • Cincinnati's defensive front grades 67.7 with an 11.3% rush-win rate; Miami's OL grade is 57.4.
    • Cincinnati's OL has allowed 8 sacks, versus 5 for Miami; sack avoidance partially offsets its blocking advantage.
    NFL Spread Detective
    • Strategy scores: Bengals -0.088, Dolphins -0.934; EPA edge +0.846 clears the 0.50 trigger.
    • Primary EPA scores: Bengals -0.021, Dolphins -0.517; primary edge +0.496 clears the 0.20 trigger.
    • Only four 2026 games per team; split samples are Bengals 164 pass/83 rush and Miami 112 pass/94 rush plays.
    NFL HunterV2
    • FPI projects Cincinnati by 9.2 points and an 81.2% win probability.
    • Cincinnati leads current-season offensive EPA/play 0.1183 to Miami's -0.2135.
    • Cincinnati's defense allows +0.0983 EPA/play, leaving a path for Miami to stay within one score.
  3. Mike Gesicki over 27.5 receiving yards2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −111 on DraftKings

    2 modelsNFL Regression Radar, Pick With Pink (NFL) player props
    Why 2 models like it
    NFL Regression Radar
    • 136.4 expected yards from 88 last-three-game routes at 1.55 YPRR versus 114 actual, a 16.4% underproduction gap.
    • Route snaps rose 20 to 23 to 45; snap share climbed 35.0% to 50.9% to 61.8%.
    • The three-game sample is small, and 61.8% is only a marginally stable snap-rate baseline.
    Pick With Pink (NFL) player props
    • L5: 3/5 over (60%); L10: 7/10 (70%); 2026 season: 3/4 (75%).
    • L5 average is 33.6 yards, 22.2% above the market line.
    • The season sample is only four games and includes one zero-yard receiving game.
  4. Miami Dolphins under 17.5 team points2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsOne Column, +EV Volume Handicapper
    Why 2 models like it
    One Column
    • Model baseline: Miami averages 9.0 points and 1.257 points per drive through four games.
    • Miami has converted only 3 of 9 red-zone possessions into touchdowns; all four team scores have stayed below 17.5.
    • Cincinnati's defense has allowed 21.25 points per game, so its +0.0983 EPA allowed indicates real rebound risk.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Miami scored 10, 10, 13, and 13 in its first four games, staying below 17.5 every time.
    • The Dolphins' last-10 profile is -0.2745 offensive EPA per play, 35.9% success, and 1.151 points per drive.
    • Cincinnati's current defensive EPA allowed is +0.0983 and it has allowed 21.3 points per game through four contests.
  5. Cincinnati Bengals spread −6.52 models agree
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsKey Number Pairs, ProphetX Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Key Number Pairs
    • Key-number density: margin 7 occurred 240 of 2,824 NFL regular/postseason games (8.5%); the ladder's -6.5-to--7 price gap implies only 3.08 percentage points of extra mass.
    • 2026 PFF team grade is Cincinnati 74.8 versus Miami 56.4; Pinnacle's -6.5 reference corroborates the directional projection.
    • Cincinnati's defense has allowed +0.0983 EPA/play to date, leaving room for a Miami scoring response.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Cincinnati leads Miami by 0.3318 offensive EPA/play, 0.1183 to -0.2135, through four games.
    • Personnel gate: the live ProphetX game board names Joe Burrow and Malik Willis; the NFL injury feed has no QB Out/Doubtful row.
    • Likeliest loss path: Miami's defensive EPA allowed is slightly better, +0.1058 versus Cincinnati's +0.0983, keeping the game within six.
  6. Tee Higgins over 50.5 receiving yards2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on DraftKings

    2 modelsNFL HunterV2, Pick With Pink (NFL) player props
    Why 2 models like it
    NFL HunterV2
    • Higgins has 401 yards on 39 targets through four games, averaging 100.3 yards.
    • He cleared 50.5 yards in all four current-season games: 59, 95, 90, and 157.
    • Higgins is officially questionable with adductor/neck concerns; a managed snap count would damage the over.
    Pick With Pink (NFL) player props
    • L5: 5/5 over (100%); L10: 9/10 (90%); 2026 season: 4/4 (100%).
    • L5 average is 93.6 yards, 85.3% above the 50.5-yard line.
    • Higgins carried a game-day questionable designation; the odds feed lists him active, but a late limitation or scratch remains possible.
Show all 38 picks
  1. Tee Higgins over 49.5 receiving yardsHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    Target Quality YardsUp 42% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PFF REGPO, 4 games: weighted aDOT 14.5; 26/38 targets were medium/deep (68.4%).
    • NGS REG, 4 games: intended air yards averaged 13.87; separation averaged 2.42, rising 2.18 to 2.73 recently.
    • 46.2% air-yards share, 2.80 YPRR, 90.7 route grade and 96.0% route rate.
    • Tee remains questionable with a groin injury in the ESPN live feed, despite not appearing on the official inactive list.
  2. Cincinnati Bengals spread −7.5High conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full tier: Joe Burrow and Malik Willis are QB1 on latest depth charts; both teams have four current-season games; 2,824-game key-number histogram computed.
    • Most likely loss: Cincinnati wins by seven or fewer, or Miami wins outright; -7.5 has no push protection.
  3. Miami Dolphins exact margin 1-6Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 9¢ on Polymarket US

    Exact ChangeUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle Bengals -6.5 (-119) anchors a Cincinnati-favored margin distribution.
    • 2016+ NFL histogram this wake: margins 3, 4, and 6 total 26.2%; all 1-6 margins total 39.9%.
    • Tier 1: margins 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, and 14 total 44.4%, within the brief's 3-point sanity band.
    • The sharp -6.5 anchor favors Cincinnati; the directional tilt may overstate Miami's share of close wins.
  4. Under total 44.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    Sunday LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Miami's 32.215-second pace is slower than Cincinnati's 30.2825; the Dolphins' low-output offense is the primary under support.
    • Most likely loss: Cincinnati's 0.1183 offensive EPA/play, 2.4228 points/drive, and 0.1951 PROE produce an efficient shootout.
  5. Over total 46.5
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 8% last 7 days
  6. Cincinnati Bengals spread 10.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 38¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 8% last 7 days
  7. Game first-half total under 21.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • fitted first-half mean is about 20.0 points versus the 21.5 line; under costs 48¢.
    • Miami averages 54.5 plays and 1.26 points per drive; its -0.214 offensive EPA/play and 32.22-second pace suppress early scoring.
    • Cincinnati averages 64.5 plays and 2.42 points per drive, but the combined pace/efficiency fit remains below 21.5 before tail adjustment.
    • Both defenses allow roughly +0.10 EPA/play, so Cincinnati explosives or short fields can break the under quickly.
  8. Malik Washington over 46.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on DraftKings

    NFL Usage AdventureDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Receiving yards rose 43 → 56 → 67, averaging 55.3 across the same span.
    • Cincinnati allowed +0.0834 defensive EPA per play over its last three; coverage grade is 39.3.
    • Miami is a 7-point home underdog, creating a pass-favorable trailing script.
    • Miami scored only 10, 10, and 13 points in its last three games.
  9. Joe Burrow over 256.5 passing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    Shoulders of GiantsDown 19% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • OL gate verified: CIN’s five primary linemen played 99%+ through Week 4; MIA’s primary five each played 100%.
    • Pass matchup favors Cincinnati: CIN pass-block grade 67.1, PBE 97.5 versus MIA pass-rush grade 61.6.
    • Mechanism confirmed: Burrow’s time-to-throw rose from 2.54 to 2.64 seconds; he has 1,171 yards on 157 attempts.
    • A large Cincinnati lead could suppress Burrow’s second-half attempts despite the protection edge.
  10. Cincinnati Bengals −6.5
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    CLV Sharp ATSDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Recent five-game EPA: Cincinnati offense +0.1349, Miami -0.2252; success rates 50.0% versus 37.7%.
    • Net EPA gap is approximately +0.366 per play; internal conversion projects Cincinnati by 8.7, 1.7 above the consensus -7.
    • US books mostly show Cincinnati -7; Polymarket US offers Cincinnati -6.5, capturing the key 7 at 54c.
    • Miami home field and Malik Willis mobility could create explosive plays and a backdoor cover.
  11. Cincinnati Bengals spread −5.5
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX

    Sunday Board PairsUp 33% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX prices Cincinnati's moneyline at -320 while its main spread is only -5.5 at -134.
    • Four-game efficiency sample: Cincinnati offense is +0.1183 EPA/play versus Miami's -0.2135; records are Bengals 2-2 and Dolphins 0-4.
    • 2026 PFF team grades favor Cincinnati 74.8 to 56.4 overall and 80.2 to 57.4 on offense; rest is seven days each.
    • Most likely loss: Cincinnati's defense allows +0.0983 EPA/play, giving Miami enough home explosives or a backdoor drive to stay within 5.5.
  12. Cincinnati Bengals under 27.5 team points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Cincinnati averages 24.25 points and 2.423 points per drive through four games; 27.5 requires a material step above its observed scoring baseline.
    • Cincinnati's +0.1183 offensive EPA/play is good, but Miami's defense allows +0.1058 EPA/play and 19.25 points per game; the matchup is not a shutdown spot, yet it does not support 28 points as a median outcome.
    • Internal-coherence edge: 27.5 Cincinnati plus 17.5 Miami totals 45, close to the 44.5 game total, but the 10-point team-total gap is wider than Cincinnati's roughly 6.5-point spread edge; Cincinnati appears overallocated.
    • Cincinnati has scored 27 or more in two of four games and carries a 50% red-zone touchdown rate.
  13. Cincinnati Bengals winning margin 7-14Long shot
    +335%Won

    Taken at 23¢ on Kalshi

    NFL EPA Margin SharpDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Recent five-game EPA split favors Cincinnati: offense +0.1349/play versus Miami -0.2252/play.
    • based margin estimate is Cincinnati by roughly 10.5, about four points beyond the market's -6.5 spread.
    • Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins remain game-day questionable; either absence materially lowers Cincinnati's margin projection.
  14. Game total under 43.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on FanDuel

    Pigskin PeteDown 21% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected midpoint is approximately 41.1 points, 2.4 below the 43.5 market total.
    • Miami averages 11.5 points, -0.2135 offensive EPA per play, and 1.257 points per drive.
    • Malik Willis' weighted 2026 CPOE is approximately -4.3%; Miami's PFF passing grade is 50.4.
    • Joe Burrow carries an 83.9 PFF passing grade and can push Cincinnati above 30 points alone.
  15. Ollie Gordon II over 16.5 rushing attempts
    +100%Won

    Taken at +100 on DraftKings

    Shawn’s NFL Live EV HunterUp 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Gordon has 6 carries for 32 yards and a touchdown; Miami has run on 9 of 11 offensive plays.
    • Miami's live pass rate is 18.2% with -0.257 PROE, while the game is tied 7-7 at 5:37 Q1.
    • Achane is on IR and Kaytron Allen is out; Gordon is the active lead back with the strongest current workload.
    • Gordon's pregame role was committee-lead at 43.4% of snaps across four games, so rotation risk remains.
  16. Tee Higgins over 4.5 receptions
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on DraftKings

    NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte CarloDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 90-100% route participation in four games; 6.25 catches and 9.75 targets per game.
    • Model CDF gives 64% over 4.5 versus 53.3% DraftKings implied.
    • Cincinnati-Miami simulation totals 44.7 points versus the 43.5 market; 1.2-point gate pass.
    • Ja'Marr Chase is questionable despite full practice; his final availability changes Higgins' target share.
  17. Joe Burrow NO 3+ passing touchdowns
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Burrow's first four games produced 1, 2, 3, and 1 passing TDs; 3+ cleared once.
    • He already has one pass TD, but this position still needs two more passing scores with 52 minutes remaining.
    • Cincinnati's workhorse Chase Brown owns a 73.2% snap share, concentrating goal-line equity away from Burrow rushing/pass attempts.
    • The opening drive produced a Burrow pass TD on only three attempts, showing immediate red-zone efficiency.
  18. Cincinnati Bengals first touchdown
    +64%Won

    Taken at 61¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Cincinnati averages 2.423 points per drive versus Miami's 1.257 through four games.
    • Cincinnati has 12 red-zone trips and six conversions; Miami has allowed 17 opponent red-zone trips with 11 conversions.
    • Favorite-script assumption: if Cincinnati leads, Brown's concentrated backfield role should capture more goal-line equity.
    • Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins remain ESPN-live Questionable, widening Cincinnati's touchdown distribution.
  19. Chase Brown 1+ touchdowns
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 58¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Chase Brown leads Cincinnati backs at 73.2% snaps and carries a workhorse role.
    • Cincinnati averaged 3.0 red-zone attempts per game through Week 4; Miami allowed 4.25 opponent attempts and 64.7% conversion.
    • Cincinnati's pregame offense leads Miami in EPA/play (0.118 vs -0.214) and points/drive (2.423 vs 1.257); favorite script should concentrate late red-zone carries.
    • Only 12 Bengals red-zone attempts are in the four-game sample; goal-line carry allocation is not directly charted.
  20. Malik Washington over 44.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    +EV Volume HandicapperUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 log: 67, 56, 43, 53 yards; Washington cleared 44.5 in 3 of 4.
    • He has at least 5 targets in all four games and an 85.8% snap share, the Dolphins' top WR workload.
    • FanDuel -113 implies 53.1%; my fair probability is 62%, an estimated +8.9 percentage-point edge.
    • Only four games of current-season evidence; the 43-yard miss shows meaningful variance.
  21. Chase Brown under 67.5 rushing yards
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 51.75 rushing yards per game across four starts versus the 67.5 line (-23.3%).
    • Brown stayed under 67.5 in 3 of 4 games: 10, 61, 80, 56 rushing yards.
    • The active board prices the under at 67.5 yards; recent production and pass-heavy team usage point the same way.
    • Brown's workhorse role can produce 15-plus carries if Cincinnati controls the game.
  22. Joe Burrow over 33.0 pass attempts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 39.25 attempts per game across four 2026 starts versus the 33.0 line (+18.9%).
    • Burrow cleared 33 attempts in 3 of 4 games: 54, 37, 31, 35.
    • Cincinnati averages 64.5 plays and a 66.1% pass rate, implying roughly 42.6 attempts before game-script adjustment.
    • Cincinnati is a seven-point favorite, so a late lead could suppress fourth-quarter passing.
  23. Cincinnati Bengals first-half winner
    +59%Won

    Taken at 63¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rest gap is 0 days: Cincinnati 7, Miami 7; the edge is efficiency, not short-week fatigue.
    • Cincinnati leads Miami by 0.3318 offensive EPA/play, 0.1255 success rate, and 1.1656 points/drive.
    • Cincinnati’s 30.28-second pace and +0.1951 PROE support a more aggressive scripted opening than Miami’s 32.22 and +0.0447.
    • The Kalshi contract loses on a halftime tie; Kalshi’s separate tie quote is 9¢, so two-way sharp probability cannot be used unadjusted.
  24. Cincinnati Bengals second-half spread +1.5Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 65¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Reference: VENUE SELF-REFERENCE; named edge class: PROJECTION.
    • Cincinnati's fresh to-date offense is +0.118 EPA/play and 2.42 points/drive; Miami is -0.213 and 1.26.
    • Live at 7-7 early in Q1, Cincinnati has 0.791 offensive EPA/play on three plays versus Miami's -0.230 on ten.
    • The second-half distribution is conditional on halftime score and strategy; this to-date projection cannot model that conditioning.
  25. Cincinnati Bengals to winFavorite
    +28%Won

    Taken at −355 on DraftKings

    Brewing NFL MlDown 12% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PIT EPA/play: Cincinnati +0.1183 vs Miami -0.2135; offense gap is 0.3318.
    • DraftKings -355 implies roughly 76.3% after Pinnacle no-vigging; my model makes Cincinnati 81.5%.
    • Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins remain questionable, creating meaningful uncertainty in Cincinnati's receiving efficiency.
  26. Chase Brown under 16.5 rushing attempts
    +76%Won

    Taken at −132 on DraftKings

    Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • L5: 4/5 under (80%); L10: 7/10 (70%); 2026 season: 3/4 (75%).
    • L5 average is 14.2 attempts, 13.9% below the 16.5-attempt line.
    • Snap share remained 70.0%-78.9% across Weeks 1-4; the usage board labels Brown a workhorse.
    • H2H has only one observation and cannot establish a reliable opponent-specific rate.
  27. Miami Dolphins spread +5.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • book_levels are Miami 3 versus Cincinnati 3; the two core measures agree, while level count does not corroborate. Directional coherence: backing Miami, the thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it side, leg matches.
    • Venue self-reference only; no independent order-flow validation, so one stale or concentrated quote could mislead.
  28. Miami Dolphins spread +7.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Miami +7.5 wins when Cincinnati wins by exactly seven; Miami +7 only pushes.
    • Exact seven-point NFL margins occurred 124 of 1,612 regular-season games, a 7.688% push mass (2020-25).
    • Miami +7.5 still loses when Cincinnati wins by eight or more; no independent score projection is supplied.
  29. Miami Dolphins to winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 25¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • My live estimate is 30% for Miami, above both the 25% ProphetX contract price and the roughly 27.2% de-vigged sharp reference.
    • Most likely loss: Cincinnati's pregame strength and quarterback edge take over after the tied opening quarter.
  30. Total points under 44.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Cincinnati and Miami's four-game scoring averages imply a crude matchup total around 41.0, 3.5 points below 44.5.
    • The prior under 43.5 position is not blindly repeated: the number has moved to a new 44.5 line, adding a full point of protection at a plus price.
    • Most likely loss: Cincinnati's offense creates explosive or short-field scores and the game reaches 45 points.
  31. Total points under 43.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Miami is at -0.301 offensive EPA/play and 34.4% success; Cincinnati's defense is -0.053 EPA/play allowed through Week 4.
    • Pinnacle's same-game total also leans under at +103; ProphetX improves that reference to +111.
    • Most likely loss: Cincinnati creates explosive or short-field scores and the game reaches 44 points.
  32. Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins over/under 44.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    Number EarnedDown 26% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected scoring baseline is about 41 points from current 4-game points-for/against splits.
    • Miami averages 11.5 points and -0.2745 offensive EPA/play across the recent 10-game window.
    • Cincinnati allows 21.25 points per current game and owns -0.0727 defensive EPA/play in the recent window.
    • Cincinnati's offense has produced 27+ points in three of four games, so efficiency can overwhelm the under.

Questions

Who won Bengals vs. Dolphins?

The Bengals won 31–24 on Sunday, Oct 11, 2026.

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