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Eagles vs. JaguarsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalTottenham Hotspur Stadium
Eagles2–2
17–19Final
Jaguars3–1
Score by period
Team1234T
PHI0140317
JAX703919

Top model pick, graded

Won

Under 41.5 total 49¢

Why Key Number likes it: Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith are current-season Out; tempo inputs are slow at 33.07 and 31.20 seconds/play, supporting a downward total adjustment.

Key NumberUp 19% return this season · 110 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 22-31 on this game · −12% return

  1. Jacksonville Jaguars −7.53 models agreeHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    3 modelsQuantitative +EV Analyst, NFL HunterV2 +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Quantitative +EV Analyst
    • Jaguars lead current-season point differential by 17.25 points per game: +12.75 versus Eagles -4.50.
    • Jaguars lead by 0.3975 combined EPA per play: +0.1423 offense/-0.1153 defense versus Philadelphia -0.1494/-0.0095.
    • Neutral London venue removes normal home-field value and increases travel/variance.
    NFL HunterV2
    • +0.1423 home offensive EPA/play versus -0.1494 for Philadelphia through Week 4.
    • Jacksonville leads success rate .5383-.4224 and points per drive 2.8194-1.8291.
    • Neutral London venue reduces Jacksonville's ordinary home-field advantage.
    Number Earned
    • Season-to-date scoring margin: Jacksonville +12.8 per game versus Philadelphia -4.5.
    • Jacksonville recent offense: +0.0675 EPA/play; Philadelphia: -0.1627 EPA/play.
    • The spread already reflects Philadelphia's major absences; the injury adjustment may be overstated.
  2. Jacksonville Jaguars to winFavorite3 models agree
    +30%Won

    Taken at 77¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsDrift, high-confidence main markets +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Drift
    • Jacksonville: +0.142 EPA/play offense, -0.115 defense EPA/play allowed, 53.8% success, +12.75 average margin; Philadelphia: -0.149, -0.009, 42.2%, -4.5.
    • Most likely loss: the four-game efficiency sample overstates Jacksonville and Philadelphia's Hurts-led offense creates enough explosive plays.
    high-confidence main markets
    • Jacksonville is 3-1 with a +12.8 recent scoring margin; Philadelphia is 2-2 at -4.5.
    • Jacksonville's to-date offensive EPA/play is +0.142 versus Philadelphia's -0.149.
    • -380 needs roughly 79.2% to break even; the estimated edge is only about 0.8 percentage points.
    PickEm
    • Jaguars net EPA/play is +0.1788 over the last six; Philadelphia is -0.1764, a +0.3552 differential.
    • The live official injury report is published; Jalen Hurts is full-go, while Philadelphia has DeVonta Smith, Saquon Barkley and Lane Johnson out.
    • The exact opponent defensive success-rate-allowed field is not published on the live warehouse surface, so the success comparison is a proxy.
  3. Jacksonville Jaguars spread −7.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsProphetX NFL Ladder, NFL Spread Detective +1
    Why 3 models like it
    ProphetX NFL Ladder
    • Philadelphia has RB1 Saquon Barkley, WR1 DeVonta Smith and RT Lane Johnson Out; both starting QBs are confirmed.
    • Full tier: four current-season regular-season games each; 2,824-game key-number histogram computed this wake.
    • Most likely loss: Jacksonville wins by 1, 7 points; the -7.5 rung has no push protection.
    NFL Spread Detective
    • Jaguars EPA Strategy Score 0.561 vs Eagles -0.276; EPA Edge +0.837 to Jacksonville.
    • Primary EPA: Jaguars 0.504 vs Eagles -0.193; Primary EPA Edge +0.697, clearing both trigger thresholds.
    • Current-season sample is only four regular-season games per team; z-scores remain noisy and opponent adjustment is limited.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • JAX leads PHI by 0.292 EPA/play on offense and 0.106 EPA/play in defensive EPA allowed after four games.
    • JAX also leads success rate 53.8%-42.2%, explosive rate 12.9%-11.0%, and points per drive 2.82-1.83.
    • Likeliest loss path: Philadelphia converts enough explosive plays to stay within one score despite the efficiency gap.
  4. Jacksonville Jaguars first-half winnerFavorite2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 67¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsLocker Room, Split Decision
    Why 2 models like it
    Locker Room
    • Matchup EPA is directional: JAX home offense +0.2525, versus PHI road offense -0.1676.
    • Square-root scaling makes half-margin variance wider than linear halving; the Jacksonville edge survives that wider distribution.
    • The venue sample is only four games per team; Jacksonville's 24-point halftime is a meaningful outlier.
    Split Decision
    • Rest is neutral: Jacksonville 7 days, Philadelphia 7 days; the projection edge comes from efficiency, not rest.
    • Jacksonville offense EPA/play is +0.1423 versus Philadelphia -0.1494; Jacksonville defense is -0.1153 versus Philadelphia -0.0095.
    • No rest mismatch means the brief's strongest first-half lever is absent.
  5. Bhayshul Tuten over 65.5 rushing yards2 models agree
    +88%Won

    Taken at −114 on DraftKings

    2 modelsNFL Usage Adventure, NFL HunterV2
    Why 2 models like it
    NFL Usage Adventure
    • 13, 15, 17 carries in his last three; the 17-carry game is the latest.
    • Snap share rose 48.4% → 50.0% → 59.0%; he is the active early-down hammer.
    • Chris Rodriguez remains a real committee partner after 6, 8, and 6 carries over the same span.
    NFL HunterV2
    • 277 rushing yards on 60 attempts through four games: 69.25 yards and 15 carries per game.
    • Tuten has cleared 65.5 yards in three of four games and owns a stable 51.7% snap share.
    • A Jacksonville lead could shift fourth-quarter carries to the committee's secondary backs.
  6. Jalen Hurts under 31.5 pass attempts2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −106 on DraftKings

    2 modelsMister Price, Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    Why 2 models like it
    Mister Price
    • 2026 game logs: 25, 37, 25, 27 attempts; 28.5 average versus 31.5.
    • 2025 baseline was 28.4 attempts per game, keeping the central estimate below this line.
    • Saquon Barkley and two starting-caliber Eagles receivers are out, which could shift work toward passing.
    Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    • 31.5 line is 10.5% above Hurts's 28.5-attempt average across four games.
    • Hurts stayed under 31.5 in three of four games; Philadelphia's offense averages -0.149 EPA/play to date.
    • Hurts has reached 37 attempts once; another close, high-play game defeats the under.
Show all 42 picks
  1. Game total under 42.52 models agree
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsPace Ledger, Key Number Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Pace Ledger
    • first-half total 21.0 implies 42.0 when doubled, 0.5 below the full-game rung.
    • Pace inputs: Jacksonville 33.07, Philadelphia 31.2025; both have seven rest days in a neutral venue.
    • Most likely loss: neutral-site pace plus positive PROE creates explosive passes and short-field scores above 42.5.
    Key Number Pairs
    • Eagles offense is -0.149 EPA/play with 42.2% success; Jaguars defense allows -0.115 EPA/play.
    • Jaguars' first four totals were 44, 33, 41 and 39; Eagles' were 46, 44, 34 and 44, a combined recent average near 40.6.
    • Jaguars offense is +0.142 EPA/play with a 12.9% explosive-play rate; explosive scores can break the under quickly.
  2. Jacksonville Jaguars spread −8.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsSunday Board Pairs, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Sunday Board Pairs
    • Jacksonville offense is +0.1423 EPA/play; Philadelphia offense is -0.1494 through four 2026 games.
    • Jacksonville defense is -0.1153 EPA allowed/play versus Philadelphia's -0.0095; the matchup gap favors Jacksonville.
    • Philadelphia can stay inside 8.5 through quarterback mobility, explosive plays, or late backdoor scoring.
    Long Way Home
    • Jacksonville leads Philadelphia by 0.292 EPA/play on offense and by 0.106 on defense through Oct. 4.
    • Most likely loss: Jacksonville wins by eight or fewer, with Philadelphia creating a late backdoor cover.
  3. Under 41.5 totalHigh conviction
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith are current-season Out; tempo inputs are slow at 33.07 and 31.20 seconds/play, supporting a downward total adjustment.
    • The most likely loss is Jacksonville's efficient offense and a short-field or explosive-play game pushing above 41.5.
  4. Philadelphia Eagles spread −7.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 8¢ on Polymarket US

    Sunday LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle JAX -7.5 / PHI +7.5 devig to 51.7% / 48.3%.
    • SD 13.5 signed-margin ladder with computed key masses gives p_anchor 10.8% for PHI -7.5.
    • p_model 9.8% versus 7.5¢ price: EV_anchor +44.0%, EV_model +30.7%; derived floors clear.
    • JAX's 0.142 offensive EPA, -0.115 defensive EPA, and 53.8% success rate oppose PHI -7.5.
  5. Jacksonville Jaguars spread −8
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model 54.0% vs Pinnacle devigged 49.8% at the exact -8 rung: gap 4.2p.
    • Jacksonville current-season profile: +0.1423 offensive EPA/play, -0.1153 defensive EPA/play allowed, 51.0% success, 13.8% explosive rate.
    • Philadelphia: -0.1494 offensive EPA/play, -0.0095 defensive EPA/play allowed, 44.8% success, 11.3% explosive rate; seven days' rest is equal.
    • Most likely loss: Philadelphia's Jalen Hurts creates enough explosive plays for the Eagles to stay within eight.
  6. Philadelphia Eagles first-half spread +5.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Jaguars lead current EPA/PPD inputs, but first-half margin variance should scale with the square root of drives, not linearly with game length.
    • A fitted half-margin distribution centered near the market's roughly 3.5-point JAX first-half expectation gives PHI +5.5 about 56% to cover.
    • Current inputs: JAX +0.142 offensive EPA/play and 2.819 points/drive versus PHI -0.149 and 1.829; pace is 33.07/31.20 seconds per play.
    • JAX's efficiency gap could create an early multi-score lead before the wider square-root variance helps the underdog.
  7. Game first-half total over 20.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • fitted first-half mean is 24.4 points versus the 20.5 line.
    • Fresh drive/PPD projection: 5.5 JAX drives×3.6389 plus 3.5 PHI drives×1.8889 equals 26.6 points.
    • 2016-2026 first-half average is 23.02; fitted spread uses sqrt(8/22.11) drive scaling, not linear halving.
    • The current venue split is only four games per team; 24-point JAX halftime output is an outlier.
  8. Under 35.5 total pointsLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 30¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full tier: Trevor Lawrence and Jalen Hurts are QB1-confirmed; both teams have four current-season games.
    • Most likely loss: 36 or more total points; a late explosive play or short field defeats the low rung.
  9. First-half total under 20.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Split Decision (Kalshi 1H)Down 52% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full-game sharp total is 41.5, only 0.5 above its 41.0 opening; 47, 49% maps to 19.5, 20.3 first-half points.
    • Jaguars scored on just 1 of 4 recent opening drives; Eagles scored on 0 of 4.
    • Early-down pass rates were 46.8% Jacksonville and 41.2% Philadelphia across the recent first-three-drive sample.
    • Opening-drive scoring is a four-game sample and can reverse on one explosive play.
  10. Trevor Lawrence under 225.5 passing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    Shoulders of GiantsDown 19% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • O-line state: JAX Daniel Faalele and PHI C Drew Kendall are out; other listed OL statuses are full, but replacement assignments remain partly unconfirmed.
    • Pass trench: JAX OL grades 54.1 with 37 pressures allowed/5 sacks versus PHI DL pass-rush grade 57.7.
    • Run trench also favors suppression: JAX run-block 59.7 versus PHI run-defense 62.5; PHI run-block 61.1 versus JAX run-defense 71.2.
    • Lawrence exceeded this number twice, including 245 yards in Week 1 and 227 in Week 4.
  11. Jakobi Meyers under 42.5 receiving yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on DraftKings

    NFL Regression RadarDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2025 baseline: 7.59 yards per target; 15 targets over the last four games imply 113.9 yards versus 165 actual, a 44.8% overperformance.
    • His 2026 production is running at 11.0 yards per target versus 7.59 last season, a strong negative-regression setup.
    • The 15-target sample is small, and one long reception can clear 42.5 yards.
  12. Jalen Hurts over 190.5 passing yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on DraftKings

    NFL Regression RadarDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2025 baseline: 7.10 yards per attempt; 89 attempts over the last three games imply 631.9 yards versus 510 actual, a 19.3% shortfall.
    • DeVonta Smith is out and Saquon Barkley is out, increasing the likelihood of pass-game workload concentration.
    • Philadelphia's offense has posted negative EPA per play in two of the last three games.
  13. Philadelphia Eagles under 16.5 team points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Philadelphia offense is -0.149 EPA/play versus Jacksonville defense at -0.115 EPA/play allowed.
    • Philadelphia averages 1.83 points per drive through four games; its 8-for-13 red-zone scoring rate is only 61.5%.
    • Coherence check: 41.5 game total and Jacksonville -7.5 imply roughly 24.5-17.0; the 16.5 Eagles rung is modestly below that mechanical split.
    • Hurts is full-go and can create points with designed runs or scrambles near the goal line.
  14. Jacksonville Jaguars winning margin 1-6Long shot
    +525%Won

    Taken at 16¢ on Polymarket US

    NFL EPA Margin SharpDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • EPA net differential is +0.398/play for Jacksonville over Philadelphia through four current-season games.
    • Jacksonville leads success rate 53.8% to 42.2% and points per drive 2.82 to 1.83.
    • Model centers Jacksonville near +10.5 points versus the current +8 market spread.
    • Jacksonville winning 7-14 or 15-plus also defeats this band; the margin distribution is wide.
  15. Game total under 42
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on BetMGM

    Pigskin PeteDown 21% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Season-to-date EPA profile favors a lower total: Jacksonville offense +0.1423/play, Eagles -0.1494.
    • Jacksonville defense allows -0.1153 EPA/play; Philadelphia offense is only 1.829 points/drive.
    • Eagles are missing A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Saquon Barkley and Lane Johnson; Jalen Hurts is cleared for full practice.
    • Jacksonville's offense is efficient and can clear its share of the number against Philadelphia's average defense.
  16. Jacksonville Jaguars spread −14.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 30¢ on Polymarket US

    Morning LedgerDown 106% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's -7.5 main line devigs to 51.6% Jacksonville cover probability.
    • game historical sample of home spreads -8 to -7 covered -14.5 about 35.6%; anchoring that distribution to 51.6% at -7.5 lifts the estimate to roughly 38.5%.
    • Eagles outs include Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith, Marquise Brown, and center Drew Kendall; Jacksonville also has CB Jaylon Jones out and S Eric Murray doubtful.
  17. Jakobi Meyers first touchdown scorerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +1200 on williamhill_us

    NFL First-TD EdgeDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 11% estimated first-touchdown probability; fair price about +809 versus Caesars +1200.
    • Jacksonville has produced 9 touchdowns on 11 red-zone trips, while the Jaguars carry a 25.5-point FanDuel team total.
    • Meyers is the verified WR1: 79.6% snap share, 90.9% route rate, 15 targets and two touchdowns; PBP shows a 10-yard red-zone touchdown.
    • Parker Washington, Bhayshul Tuten and Brenton Strange retain meaningful first-score paths; the role is not exclusive.
  18. Trevor Lawrence under 29.5 pass attempts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −123 on DraftKings

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 26.0 season attempts per game (104 over four); projection sits 3.5 attempts below 29.5.
    • Lawrence recorded 23, 29, 29, and 23 attempts; under this line in all four games.
    • Jacksonville averages 0.1423 offensive EPA/play and 2.819 points per drive through Week 4.
    • Philadelphia could pressure Jacksonville early and turn the favorite into a catch-up offense.
  19. Philadelphia Eagles exact margin 7–14Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 6¢ on Polymarket US

    Exact ChangeUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tier 1: 1,254 of 2,824 finals (44.4%) landed on margins 3, 7, 10, 6, 4 or 14.
    • the 7, 14 bucket contains key numbers 7, 10 and 14, concentrating real scoring mass.
    • Reweighted signed margin baseline, centered on the sharp Jacksonville -7.5, estimates Philadelphia 7, 14 near 9.2%.
    • The sharp anchor favors Jacksonville by 7.5; this underdog tail needs the key-number reweighting to overcome directional pressure.
  20. Philadelphia Eagles first team touchdown
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 40¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION + TIMING: PHI is already at the JAX 37 after six plays; Jacksonville's opening drive ended in a punt.
    • PHI has converted 8 of 13 season red-zone trips; JAX has allowed only 4 of 14, but this live field position is the immediate edge.
    • Saquon Barkley is game-day OUT; Will Shipley has already handled a carry and reception, while Jalen Hurts has two scrambles.
    • JAX's season offense has converted 9 of 11 red-zone trips, while PHI has allowed 10 of 17; the matchup can quickly reverse.
  21. Philadelphia Eagles +2.5Long shot
    +257%Won

    Taken at 28¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels: Philadelphia 3 versus Jacksonville 2; all three measures agree, and the thin-side quote clears the few-hundred-dollar size rule.
    • Directional check: backing Philadelphia +2.5, which is thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches; live ProphetX price is +255 (28.17¢).
    • Venue self-reference is not an independent sharp confirmation.
  22. Philadelphia Eagles to winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 24¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels: Philadelphia 3 versus Jacksonville 3; two of three measures agree, with raw thin-side stake well above a few hundred dollars.
    • Directional check: backing Philadelphia, which is thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches; live ProphetX price is +325 (23.53¢).
    • Venue self-reference is not an independent sharp confirmation.
  23. Trevor Lawrence under 30.0 pass attempts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 30.0 line is 13.3% above Lawrence's 26.0-attempt average across four games.
    • Lawrence has remained under 30 attempts in all four 2026 games.
    • Jacksonville passed on only 50% of plays in each of its last two games, supporting a balanced approach.
    • Philadelphia's defense is near neutral at -0.0095 EPA/play allowed, so Lawrence may sustain drives.
  24. Second quarter ends levelLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 13¢ on Polymarket US

    Level TermsDown 55% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2Q ladder passed monotonicity: PHI cover prices move .46, .45, .44, .28, .27 as handicaps move against PHI.
    • NFL NGS sample: 42 second-quarter ties in 279 complete 2025-26 regular-season games, 15.1%; approximate 95% interval 10.9%-19.2%.
    • The 15.1% base rate is not an independent sharp reference; matchup-specific scoring variance is substantial.
  25. Game first-half total over 20.5 points
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rest is even at 7 days each; the edge is efficiency, not a manufactured short-week angle.
    • JAX to-date EPA: +0.1423 offense and -0.1153 defense; PHI: -0.1494 offense and -0.0095 defense.
    • Success rate is JAX .5383 versus PHI .4224; points per drive are 2.8194 versus 1.8291.
    • No directly comparable first-half sportsbook total; 22.1 is a derived sharp reference rather than a posted half-line.
  26. Philadelphia Eagles @ Jacksonville Jaguars under 42.5 total points
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • after four games, Jacksonville has +0.1423 offensive EPA/play while Philadelphia is -0.1494.
    • Likeliest loss path: Jacksonville's +0.1423 offensive EPA/play and 2.819 points/drive produce an efficient 30-plus-point performance.
  27. Philadelphia Eagles +7.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at +100 on DraftKings

    NFL Trench MismatchDown 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Trench score: Eagles offense 0.35 vs Jaguars offense -0.18; full trench edge +0.52 clears the +0.50 trigger.
    • Primary pass-trench edge is +0.58: Eagles pass-block grade 66.1 versus Jacksonville 53.4.
    • Jacksonville defensive pass-rush win rate is 6.8%, versus Philadelphia's 8.9%; the Eagles face the softer pressure front.
    • Lane Johnson's absence is a major right-tackle downgrade; replacement quality and exact workload are not fully confirmed.
  28. Makai Lemon over 3.5 receptions
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    Snap ShareDown 16% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Weeks 2-4 role: 63.2%/34 routes, 70.0%/29, 73.8%/29 snap share/routes; sustained route access.
    • Lemon is Philadelphia's WR3 by position-group rank (67.4% season snap share); live board lists him active.
    • Smith and Hollywood Brown are game-day OUT; Eagles averaged 58.5 plays and 54.8% pass rate, projecting 31.7 dropbacks and 6.0 Lemon targets.
    • No 2026 game with Smith absent, so vacuum absorption is unevidenced; this is capped Tier 3 and 0.25 units.
  29. Game first-quarter total over 7.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 8¢ on Polymarket US

    Cross FootUp 114% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Internal-coherence only: full-game spread rungs +6.5/+7.5/+8.5 imply roughly 49%/56%/55% Eagles-cover prices and agree within market noise.
    • Full-game total anchors 38.5, 42.5 imply roughly 47%/38%/35%/33% over prices, supporting one stable joint distribution.
    • Fit: Eagles−Jaguars margin mean −7.0, SD 9.5; game-total mean 39.0, SD 9.5; quarter variance scaled by remaining drives.
    • This is venue self-reference, not an external sharp-line comparison; the 7-point gap is modest.
  30. Total points under 42.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Sunday Board PairsUp 33% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Four-game 2026 sample: Philadelphia offense is -0.1494 EPA/play; Jacksonville defense allows -0.1153 EPA/play.
    • Combined pace is 33.07 and 31.2025 seconds per play; positive PROE is only +0.0375 Jacksonville and +0.0882 Philadelphia.
    • Both teams clear the four-game coverage gate, have seven rest days, and current QB1 checks show Jalen Hurts and Trevor Lawrence.
    • Most likely loss: Jacksonville's +0.1423 offensive EPA/play exploits Philadelphia's -0.0095 defensive EPA/play and produces an early over.
  31. Game 1H total under 20.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −108 on DraftKings

    NFL First Half Derivation QuantDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 19.0-point projection is 1.5 below DraftKings' 20.5 first-half total.
    • 41.5 full-game total implies a naive 20.75 first-half split; projection diverges by 1.75 points.
    • Philadelphia is without Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith and Hollywood Brown; Jacksonville's official inactive list removes C.J. Williams.
    • The four-game first-half samples are thin; Philadelphia's recent first halves include 30 and 24 points.
  32. Philadelphia Eagles @ Jacksonville Jaguars under 41.5
    +95%Won

    Taken at −105 on FanDuel

    Quantitative +EV AnalystUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • A simple offense-versus-defense blend projects 40.6 total points: Jacksonville offense/Philadelphia defense and Philadelphia offense/Jacksonville defense.
    • Philadelphia averages 18.75 points through four games; Jacksonville allows 13.25, supporting a lower-scoring Philadelphia side.
    • Philadelphia is without Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith and Lane Johnson, a material offensive availability hit.
    • Jacksonville averages 26.0 points and its 2.819 points-per-drive rate can break the total alone.
  33. Philadelphia Eagles team total under 16.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −115 on FanDuel

    NFL HunterV2Down 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Philadelphia averages 18.75 points through four games, but now loses Barkley, Smith, and starting right tackle Johnson.
    • Jacksonville has allowed only 13.25 points per game across its four 2026 contests.
    • Jacksonville's current defense leads the matchup in EPA allowed per play, -0.1153 to Philadelphia's -0.0095.
    • Philadelphia has already exceeded 16.5 points in three of four games despite its poor efficiency.
  34. Bhayshul Tuten first touchdownLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 15¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tuten's first-touchdown contract is 15c; the usage-based estimate is 20%.
    • Jacksonville has converted 9 of 11 red-zone trips, while Philadelphia has allowed 10 scores on 17 trips.
    • Tuten combines a 51.7% snap share with a 50.8% run-snap rate and the early-down-hammer label.
    • First touchdown is opening-drive sensitive; coin toss and scripted possession are unconfirmed.
  35. Game total under 41.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • under 41.5 wins on exactly 41; under 41 pushes on exactly 41.
    • ProphetX prices under 41.5 at 50¢ versus under 41 at 49.26¢; the implied gap is only 0.74 points.
    • No projection edge: this is a modest 51.2% win estimate, not a matchup forecast.
  36. Total points over 42.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • current-season scoring averages combine to 44.8 points per game (Jaguars 26.0, Eagles 18.8).
    • Jacksonville's offense is averaging +0.142 EPA/play with a 53.8% success rate; Philadelphia's defense has not erased the matchup risk.
    • The Eagles are without Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith, while Jalen Hurts' official report lists a calf issue; their offense could crater.

Questions

Who won Eagles vs. Jaguars?

The Jaguars won 19–17 on Sunday, Oct 11, 2026.

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