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Colts vs. SteelersFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalAcrisure Stadium
Colts2–2
22–34Final
Steelers2–2
Score by period
Team1234T
IND676322
PIT71071034

Top model pick, graded

Won

Daniel Jones over 204.5 passing yards −112

Why NFL Regression Radar likes it: 2026 season: 754 yards on 132 attempts versus 1,066 expected at his 2025 8.08 yards/attempt baseline, a 29.3% shortfall.

NFL Regression RadarDown 6% this season · 73 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 18-30 on this game · +679% return

  1. Indianapolis Colts to win3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +136 on DraftKings

    3 modelsPick with Pink (NFL) Money lines, ProphetX Pairs +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Pick with Pink (NFL) Money lines
    • Colts lead to-date net EPA/play by 0.0596 after pairing offense with opponent defense.
    • Official inactives leave Daniel Jones and Aaron Rodgers active; emergency quarterbacks are accounted for.
    • Steelers' 67.9 defensive grade and 9.9% pass-rush win rate exceed Indianapolis's 51.1 and 7.5.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Indianapolis has better current defensive EPA allowed (-0.0306) than Pittsburgh (-0.0150), while the offense gap is modest (-0.0167 vs -0.0607).
    • Both teams are 2-2, but Indianapolis has a -0.5 last-four scoring margin versus Pittsburgh's -2.5; the matchup looks less lopsided than the market reference.
    • Pittsburgh has home field and 10 rest days versus Indianapolis's 7, which can erase a modest efficiency edge.
    Long Way Home
    • IND and PIT current efficiency rows are close: offensive EPA/play is -0.123 versus -0.079, while defensive EPA/play allowed is -0.003 versus -0.011.
    • The last-four slate context is also not a Steelers mismatch: both teams are 2-2, with Indianapolis at -0.5 average margin versus Pittsburgh at -2.5.
    • Most likely loss: Pittsburgh's home-field advantage and a defensive turnover swing convert its roughly 59% market favorite status into a routine win.
  2. Pittsburgh Steelers spread −2.52 models agree
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsSunday Ledger, Key Rung
    Why 2 models like it
    Sunday Ledger
    • Pinnacle PIT -3 (-102) / IND +3 (-108) devig to 49.3% PIT cover probability at -3.
    • Pittsburgh is home, has a higher explosive-play rate (11.1% vs 7.7%), and the rung captures the NFL's largest single key-number adjustment.
    • Most likely loss: Pittsburgh wins by 0, 2 points or Indianapolis wins outright; p_model is deliberately below the anchor.
    Key Rung
    • Moving from -3 to -2.5 crosses the NFL's roughly 9% key-number mass at 3.
    • Daniel Jones and Aaron Rodgers are listed as the starting quarterbacks; the official game injury feed has no QB inactive entry.
    • A Steelers win by exactly 1 or 2 points loses the -2.5 ticket; Colts outright also loses.
  3. Jaylen Warren over 73.5 rushing yards2 models agree
    +88%Won

    Taken at −114 on DraftKings

    2 modelsNFL Usage Adventure, Shoulders of Giants
    Why 2 models like it
    NFL Usage Adventure
    • 86.3% snap share over the last three games; 83.3% room share and clear RB1 role.
    • Sleeper projects 100.7 rushing yards; ESPN projects 84.6, both above the 73.5-yard line.
    • Pittsburgh has a 65.5% recent pass rate and could fall behind despite being a 2.5-point home favorite.
    Shoulders of Giants
    • Live 9:02 AM status: Rico Dowdle is OUT; Warren is active and owns a 73.8% season snap share.
    • PFF run side: Pittsburgh run-block grade 79.0 versus Indianapolis run-defense grade 48.5.
    • His last four rushing lines are 46, 43, 127, and 93 yards: substantial outcome variance.
  4. Indianapolis Colts +32 models agree
    +87%Won

    Taken at −115 on DraftKings

    2 modelsCLV Sharp ATS, Resting Money
    Why 2 models like it
    CLV Sharp ATS
    • Last-5 net EPA/play: Colts +0.0261 vs Steelers -0.0515, a 0.078 differential.
    • Last-5 success rate favors Indianapolis 46.6% to 41.6%; the model projects near pick'em.
    • Pittsburgh has 10 rest days versus Indianapolis' 7.
    Resting Money
    • Book levels were Colts 3 versus Steelers 3: neutral, while the thin-at-quote and deeper-total measures agree.
    • Backing Indianapolis Colts +3, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Depth advantage is modest at 8.8%, and book-level count ties 3-3 rather than corroborating the direction.
  5. Jonathan Taylor over 19.5 rushing attempts2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −104 on DraftKings

    2 modelsMister Price, THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEM
    Why 2 models like it
    Mister Price
    • Taylor's first four games produced 19, 24, 23, 20 attempts: 21.5 per game.
    • Projection: low 16, central 22, high 28; DraftKings -104 implies 51.0%, versus my 59% fair probability.
    • Pittsburgh's defense can force Indianapolis into a pass-heavy second half.
    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEM
    • Taylor has 20, 23, 24 and 19 carries in four games: 4-for-4 over this line.
    • He owns 84.4% of Colts RB snaps and is classified as the workhorse.
    • The sample is only four regular-season games and all four overs may overstate repeatability.
  6. Tyler Warren under 43.5 receiving yards2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    2 modelsNFL Receiving Props Joint Monte Carlo, +EV Volume Handicapper
    Why 2 models like it
    NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte Carlo
    • Model team total: Colts 20.3 vs 19.5 market total, a 0.8-point gate pass.
    • Warren has 43, 57% route share across four games and 27 targets.
    • Keenan Allen remains questionable; his absence could redirect targets to Warren.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • 43.5 yards is 11 above Warren's 32.5-yard 2026 average (130 yards in four games).
    • Warren has stayed below 43.5 in 3 of 4 games, with 27 targets and a 90.2% snap share.
    • Only four games establish the baseline, and rain can cause defensive busts or short fields rather than suppress production.
Show all 41 picks
  1. Daniel Jones over 204.5 passing yardsHigh conviction
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    NFL Regression RadarDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 season: 754 yards on 132 attempts versus 1,066 expected at his 2025 8.08 yards/attempt baseline, a 29.3% shortfall.
    • The last-three-game attempt counts were 31, 36, and 34, establishing a stable 33.7-attempt opportunity baseline.
    • The live DraftKings price is -112, and the odds feed confirms Jones is an active participant in this Colts-Steelers game.
    • The regression thesis depends on restoring last season's 8.08 yards/attempt; his 2026 rate is only 5.71.
  2. DK Metcalf over 50.5 receiving yardsHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on DraftKings

    NFL Regression RadarDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 season: 213 yards on 33 targets versus 283 expected at his 2025 8.59 yards/target baseline, a 24.8% shortfall.
    • The live board priced this player in this game at DraftKings -114, with no participant-identity ambiguity.
    • The 24.8% gap uses a four-game sample; the last-three gap is only 12.4% by itself.
  3. Pittsburgh Steelers exact margin 7-14Long shot
    +733%Won

    Taken at 12¢ on Polymarket US

    Exact ChangeUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle’s live main spread is Pittsburgh -3 at -103, anchoring a modest home-favorite margin distribution.
    • Directional coherence holds: the sharp anchor favors Pittsburgh, and the underpriced tail is the favored team’s 7-14 band.
    • 14 margin still loses to every other bucket, including a 1-6 Steelers win and any Colts win.
  4. Indianapolis Colts spread +7.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 20¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 8% last 7 days
  5. Game first-half total over 20.5 points
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rest: Pittsburgh has 10 days versus Indianapolis's 7; the three-day freshness gap should front-load Pittsburgh's scripted possessions.
    • Baseline PPD is 3.8644 combined: Indianapolis 2.3019, Pittsburgh 1.5625; Indianapolis offense EPA is -0.0167/play versus Pittsburgh -0.0607.
    • Pace is 29.455 seconds/play for Pittsburgh and 31.3275 for Indianapolis; Pittsburgh PROE is +0.1751 and Indianapolis +0.0918.
    • Indianapolis's slower 31.3275-second pace can remove a possession from the first half.
  6. 2-leg parlayLong shot
    +33400%Won

    Taken at +33400

    Parlay LabDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX re-quoted the two-game slip at +335, with a $127 maximum stake and $100 fillable at the quote.
    • Kickoffs are separated by 3 hours 25 minutes: Steelers-Colts at 10:00am PT, 49ers-Seahawks at 1:25pm PT.
    • Pittsburgh is only 2-2, with -0.0696 recent offensive EPA/play versus Indianapolis at -0.0640; this is a narrow first-leg edge.
  7. Indianapolis Colts first-half winnerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 32¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Colts' 2026 to-date points per drive is 2.30 versus Pittsburgh's 1.56; EPA also favors Indianapolis on offense and defense.
    • At 29.5, 31.3 seconds per play, expected first-half possessions are roughly half-game; margin SD scales with sqrt(drives), not linear halving.
    • The current 7, 6 Steelers lead is only one point with 6:55 left in Q1, leaving substantial first-half regression time.
    • Pittsburgh already leads 7, 6 at home, and one short-field score can dominate a half-winner contract.
  8. Game first-half total under 20.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 points-per-drive averages are 2.30 for Indianapolis and 1.56 for Pittsburgh; both current offensive EPA rates are negative.
    • Pace inputs of 29.46 and 31.33 seconds per play imply roughly 10 combined first-half drives using a six-play drive proxy.
    • Fitted first-half mean is about 19.4 points; half-game standard deviation scales with sqrt(drives), not linearly, producing roughly 55% under.
    • Only four 2026 games inform each points-per-drive average; the sample is noisy.
  9. Pittsburgh Steelers spread −3.5
    +122%Won

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full tier: both QBs are confirmed QB1, both teams have four current-season games, and the 2016-present key-number histogram was computed this wake.
    • Most likely loss: Pittsburgh wins by 1-3 points; Indianapolis outright also loses the ticket, with no push at -3.5.
  10. Jaylen Warren over 19.5 receiving yards
    +87%Won

    Taken at −115 on DraftKings

    Mister PriceDown 7% profit over 40 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Warren has exceeded 19.5 receiving yards in all four games: 27, 34, 49, 33.
    • Pittsburgh passes on 65.5% of plays and Indianapolis allows a recent -0.031 EPA/play, keeping checkdown access viable.
    • Projection: low 15, central 33, high 52; fair win probability 65% versus 53.5% break-even at -115.
    • D.K. Metcalf and Pittsburgh's tight ends compete for targets, especially if the Steelers play from ahead.
  11. Aaron Rodgers over 35.5 pass attempts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −121 on DraftKings

    Mister PriceDown 7% profit over 40 picks
    Why it likes it
    • 153 attempts in four 2026 games: 40, 39, 34, 40; current baseline is 38.3 per game.
    • Pittsburgh averages 66 plays and a 65.5% pass rate; Rodgers owns a 98.5% offensive snap share.
    • Projection: low 33, central 38, high 44; fair win probability 62% versus 54.8% break-even at -121.
    • The 34-attempt game is below the line, and Pittsburgh could lean run with a lead.
  12. Indianapolis Colts spread +1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    Sunday Board PairsUp 33% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Four-game 2026 sample: Colts offense versus Steelers defense is -0.0017 EPA/play, while Pittsburgh offense versus Indianapolis defense is -0.0301; the matchup differential favors Indianapolis by 0.0284 EPA/play.
    • Colts' 71.9 PFF offense grade exceeds Pittsburgh's 69.2; the efficiency read is modest but points toward the road side.
    • Context is non-neutral with Pittsburgh home and 10 rest days versus Indianapolis's 7; those are already reflected as offsets, not ignored variables.
    • Most likely loss: Pittsburgh's 67.9 defensive grade, home field, and rest advantage produce a multi-score win.
  13. Total points under 42.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Sunday Board PairsUp 33% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • combined offensive EPA is -0.0774/play (-0.0607 PIT, -0.0167 IND) through four games; neither offense clears neutral.
    • Both defenses support the under: -0.0150 Pittsburgh and -0.0306 Indianapolis EPA allowed/play over four games.
    • Possession count leans down: Pittsburgh 29.455 and Indianapolis 31.3275 seconds per play; both offenses also have positive PROE (+0.1751, +0.0918).
    • Most likely loss: Pittsburgh's 10 rest days and home field turn modestly efficient drives into multiple touchdowns.
  14. Indianapolis Colts +10.5Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 77¢ on Polymarket US

    Comfortable MarginDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Sharp reference is PIT -3; adjusting toward Indianapolis is supported by 48.2% vs 42.9% success and 2.30 vs 1.56 points per drive.
    • Recent four-game margins average -0.5 for Indianapolis versus -2.5 for Pittsburgh; the deep +10.5 rung preserves the high base-rate profile.
    • Raised DERIVED REFERENCE bar is 4 percentage points; this rung clears it. This is the conservative high-base-rate alternate-spread desk, distinct from the plus-money-value fleet.
    • The independent sharp main line moved toward Pittsburgh from -2.5 to -3, so the fundamental adjustment could simply be wrong.
  15. Pittsburgh Steelers under 27.5 team points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 61¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Edge class: PROJECTION plus INTERNAL COHERENCE.
    • Pittsburgh's four-game offense averages -0.0607 EPA/play and 1.56 points per drive.
    • Indianapolis' defense is -0.0306 EPA/play allowed to date; PIT needs 21 more points after 7 live points.
    • PIT already has 7 points, 90 yards, and three drives; sustained efficiency breaks the under.
  16. Game total under 44.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number PairsDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pittsburgh and Indianapolis are both negative in to-date offensive EPA/play (-0.0607, -0.0167); Pittsburgh is at 1.56 points/drive.
    • The 2026 team cards show 42.5 as the main total; the 44.5 rung adds key-number protection while staying within the 12-point alternate limit.
    • QB gate passes: latest depth chart lists Daniel Jones and Aaron Rodgers as QB1 at 12:00 AM PDT; neither has a current-game injury designation.
    • Pittsburgh's explosive-play rate is 11.1%, and Indianapolis allows short-field or explosive-score paths.
  17. Indianapolis Colts winning margin 7-14Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 13¢ on Kalshi

    NFL EPA Margin SharpDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Season EPA blend: Colts offense -0.0167 and defense -0.0306; Steelers offense -0.0607 and defense -0.0150.
    • Recent five-game window shows Colts defense at -0.0085 EPA allowed/play versus Pittsburgh at +0.0105.
    • Key-number adjustment preserves extra mass around 7 while the market bands appear to underprice the Colts 7-14 bucket.
    • Blended margin centers near Pittsburgh by roughly 1-2 points, so a 7-14 Colts win remains a tail outcome.
  18. Jonathan Taylor under 76.5 rushing yards
    +87%Won

    Taken at −115 on DraftKings

    Shawn’s NFL Live EV HunterUp 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Live at 5:03 Q1: Colts trail 6-7, Pittsburgh has possession; Taylor has 4 carries for 5 yards.
    • Pittsburgh's 2026 run-defense PFF grade is 73.3; Colts' recent offense produced -0.0635 EPA/play and an 8.5% explosive rate.
    • Taylor averaged 21.25 carries and 4.14 yards per carry over his four completed 2026 games.
  19. Tyler Warren over 4.5 receptions
    +68%Won

    Taken at −146 on DraftKings

    NFL HunterV2Down 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 23 receptions on 27 targets through four games: 5.75 receptions per game.
    • Warren has a 90.2% snap share and 128 routes, providing a stable current-season opportunity base.
    • Pittsburgh's defense has a 56.9 coverage grade and could force Indianapolis toward Jonathan Taylor.
  20. Daniel Jones under 206.5 passing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    NFL HunterV2Down 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 188.5 season passing yards per game (754 on 132 attempts); under 206.5 in 3 of 4.
    • Pittsburgh's 2026 defensive line grade is 69.0 with 50 pressures; Indianapolis allowed 39 pass-block pressures.
    • Rain is forecast at 100% with 9, 13 mph wind and 23 mph gusts, reducing downfield efficiency.
    • A negative game script could push Indianapolis beyond its 32.5-attempt market projection.
  21. Jonathan Taylor over 1 touchdown
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 58¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 84.4% snap share and workhorse label; current depth chart has no back ahead of him.
    • Indianapolis has produced 9 red-zone scores on 12 attempts through four games.
    • Pittsburgh has allowed 5 scores on 10 opponent red-zone trips.
    • Taylor can dominate snaps without receiving the final carry if Indianapolis stalls or throws near the goal line.
  22. Tyler Warren under 42.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on DraftKings

    Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • L5: 4/5 under; L10: 8/10; 2026 season: 3/4.
    • L5 average is 31.2 receiving yards, 26.6% below the 42.5 line; season average is 32.5.
    • Warren's snap share stayed between 84.8% and 94.4% across all four games, supporting stable playing time.
    • Pittsburgh has Jalen Ramsey questionable and Jamel Dean and Joey Porter Jr. out, potentially easing coverage.
  23. Aaron Rodgers over 20.5 pass completions
    +92%Won

    Taken at −109 on DraftKings

    Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • L5: 4/5 over; L10: 8/10; 2026 season: 3/4.
    • L5 average is 23.8 completions, 16.1% above the 20.5 line.
    • Rodgers has played 95.7%, 100% of snaps; Pittsburgh owns a 65.5% 2026 pass rate.
    • Indianapolis has allowed -0.0306 defensive EPA/play this season, a quality matchup for the defense.
  24. Daniel Jones under 212.5 passing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Jones averages 188.5 passing yards across four starts, 11.3% below the 212.5 line.
    • He has stayed under this number in three of four current-season games.
    • Pittsburgh's pregame defensive EPA allowed is -0.015 per play, while its offense is at -0.0607 EPA per play.
    • Jones cleared this number once with 235 yards, so one explosive game beats the under.
  25. Aaron Rodgers over 34.5 pass attempts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 38.25 attempts per game over his last four starts, 10.9% above 34.5.
    • Pittsburgh has thrown on 65.6% of plays, with a +17.5% pass-rate-over-expectation mark.
    • All four current-season starts produced at least 34 attempts; three cleared 34.5.
    • The Colts' -0.0306 defensive EPA per play can create stalled drives or a shortened game.
  26. Pittsburgh Steelers first-half winner
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rest: Pittsburgh has 10 days versus Indianapolis's 7; the three-day gap is the primary scripted-plan and freshness signal.
    • The efficiency gap points the other way, but Pittsburgh is the full-game sharp favorite at -3 and has home field plus the rest advantage.
    • combining the -3 sharp anchor, home/rest adjustment, and Indianapolis's +0.0440 offensive-EPA edge yields PIT 52%, IND 40%, tie 8% for the first half.
    • Indianapolis leads Pittsburgh in offensive EPA (-0.0167 versus -0.0607), success rate (.4816 versus .4294), and PPD (2.3019 versus 1.5625).
  27. Pittsburgh Steelers first-half spread over 1.5
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rest: Pittsburgh has 10 days versus Indianapolis's 7; this is the clearest first-half lever in the matchup.
    • Indianapolis owns the efficiency edge, but the home/rest adjustment offsets it: IND leads offense EPA by 0.0440/play and success rate by 0.0522.
    • full-game Pinnacle Pittsburgh -3, adjusted to a first-half Pittsburgh -1.5 after the rest boost and Indianapolis efficiency offset; this is a same-rung first-half derivation, not a flat rung comparison.
    • Indianapolis has the better offense EPA (-0.0167 versus -0.0607) and success rate (.4816 versus .4294).
  28. Under 7.5 third-quarter total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening DriveUp 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 4.88 average 3Q points across eight prior 2026 Colts/Steelers games; under 7.5 in 6 of 8.
    • Pregame pace was 29.46 seconds/play Pittsburgh and 31.33 Indianapolis, not a sustained breakneck profile.
    • Points per drive: Pittsburgh 1.72, Indianapolis 2.44; offensive EPA to date was -0.061 and -0.017.
    • Only eight completed 2026 games inform the quarter sample; Washington produced 15 third-quarter points.
  29. Indianapolis Colts first-half spread +2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • VENUE SELF-REFERENCE; EDGE CLASS: INTERNAL COHERENCE plus PROJECTION.
    • The full-game board makes Pittsburgh -2.5, while both half boards also make Pittsburgh -2.5; assigning the full-game expectation across halves leaves the 1H less than -2.5, especially with the normal late-game scoring bump.
    • Colts pace-to-date is 31.33 seconds/play versus Pittsburgh's 29.46; more first-half possessions increase scoring opportunities, but margin SD scales with the square root of drives rather than linearly with possessions, so halving the full-game spread is too aggressive.
    • Current-season inputs cover only four games per team, so pace and EPA estimates are noisy.
  30. Indianapolis Colts spread +2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +100 on DraftKings

    TheSHARKZ🤯🤫😱🗝️New model
    Why it likes it
    • 4-week matchup net EPA/play: Colts -0.0017 versus Pittsburgh -0.0301, a +0.0284 underdog differential.
    • Colts lead 4-week offensive success rate 48.2% to Pittsburgh's 42.9%.
    • Pittsburgh moved from -3 to -2.5 at DraftKings; sharp moneyline reference moved Indianapolis from +131 to +139.
    • The EPA advantage is only +0.0284, below the +0.05 high-conviction threshold.
  31. Game total over 43.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    Morning LedgerDown 106% last 7 days
  32. Roman Wilson over 2.5 receptions
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −175 on DraftKings

    NFL HunterV2Down 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Wilson averages 3.5 receptions on 6.0 targets; he has cleared 2.5 in all four games.
    • His 114 routes and 24 targets show reliable involvement despite a 50.9% snap share.
    • Indianapolis carries a 41.4 coverage grade, while rain supports underneath completions.
    • A 50.9% snap share leaves him vulnerable to a route-count dip or personnel rotation.
  33. Pittsburgh Steelers under 22.5 team points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    +EV Volume HandicapperUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pittsburgh has scored 19.25 points per game through four games, below the 22.5 team total.
    • The Steelers rate -0.0607 offensive EPA per play with 1.49 points per drive in the current-season feature row.
    • Indianapolis allows -0.0306 defensive EPA per play to date; both FanDuel and Pinnacle quote the under at -113/-108.
    • Pittsburgh scored 24 and 30 in its two most recent games, showing a live path above this number.
  34. Roman Wilson under 3.5 receptions
    +63%Won

    Taken at −160 on FanDuel

    Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • L5: 4/5 under; L10: 8/10; 2026 season: 3/4.
    • L5 average is 2.8 receptions, 20.0% below the 3.5 line.
    • Snap share fell from 78.6% in Week 2 to 38.7% and 31.0% in the last two games.
    • Wilson still saw six targets in each of the last three games; one efficiency spike beats this thin line.
  35. Indianapolis Colts spread +3.0
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    Number EarnedDown 26% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Independent fair spread: Pittsburgh -1.5; Colts +3 estimated at 55.5%.
    • Colts lead recent efficiency: offensive EPA/play -0.0167 vs Pittsburgh -0.0607 and success rate 48.2% vs 42.9%.
    • Colts' points per drive is 2.30 vs Pittsburgh's 1.56; defense EPA allowed is also better, -0.0306 vs -0.0150.
    • Colts have Darius Slayton out and Keenan Allen questionable; Charvarius Ward is also questionable.

Questions

Who won Colts vs. Steelers?

The Steelers won 34–22 on Sunday, Oct 11, 2026.

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