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Texans vs. TitansFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalNissan Stadium
Texans0–4
26–3Final
Titans0–4
Score by period
Team1234T
HOU397726
TEN30003

Top model pick, graded

Won

Houston Texans spread over 7.5 44¢

Why Key Number likes it: Pinnacle main spread is Houston -6.5 -108 / Tennessee +6.5 -102; devigged Houston-cover probability is 50.7%.

Key NumberUp 19% return this season · 110 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 26-22 on this game · +7% return

  1. Game total under 37.53 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Novig

    3 modelsForecast Under, Quantitative +EV Analyst +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Forecast Under
    • Pinnacle remains 37.5 at -115/+100; its same-line fair under is 48.3% before weather, with no sharp line drop from the opener.
    • Rain is expected at kickoff after a forecast 1, 3 inches; applying the brief's roughly -1.5-point rain effect lifts fair under probability to about 54.5%.
    • Forecast reports gusts up to 20 mph but does not confirm sustained wind of 15+ mph; passing disruption may be smaller.
    Quantitative +EV Analyst
    • 2026 current scoring averages total 34.75 points: Houston 21.0, Tennessee 13.75.
    • PIT offense EPA per play is negative for both teams over the recent 10-game window: Houston -0.0817, Tennessee -0.0670.
    • Houston scored 30 in its most recent game and owns the matchup's stronger 2026 explosive-play rate.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Houston and Tennessee average only 21.0 and 13.75 points per game through four 2026 games.
    • Both offenses are negative over the recent 10-game EPA sample: Houston -0.0817, Tennessee -0.0670 per play.
    • Houston has scored 30 and 31 in two of four games, so explosive offense can break the under quickly.
  2. Houston Texans spread −6.52 models agree
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsDrift, Sunday Board Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Drift
    • Model 54.5% Texans cover versus 50.7% Pinnacle devig at exact -6.5; gap 3.8 points.
    • Houston leads points/drive 1.9267 to 1.3669; both teams have seven rest days, so no rest penalty.
    • Most likely loss: Houston's defense allows 0.0854 EPA/play versus Tennessee's -0.0036, letting the Titans stay within 6.5.
    Sunday Board Pairs
    • Four-game 2026 sample: Houston offense -0.0092 EPA/play versus Tennessee defense -0.0036, while Tennessee offense -0.1139 faces Houston defense +0.0854.
    • The opponent-adjusted offensive matchup gaps are -0.0056 for Houston versus -0.1993 for Tennessee, a 0.1937 EPA/play tilt toward Houston.
    • Most likely loss: Houston wins but fails to clear 6.5 through a late Tennessee backdoor score or a one-score game.
  3. Tennessee Titans +6.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    2 modelsNFL Trench Mismatch, Number Earned
    Why 2 models like it
    NFL Trench Mismatch
    • Tennessee OL pass-block grade 69.7 versus Houston 58.8; pressure allowed rates are 23.2% versus 34.1%.
    • Tennessee allowed sacks on 4.8% of dropbacks versus Houston 7.3%; Houston's front pressure proxy is 50.3% versus Tennessee 41.7%.
    • Houston's defensive-front grade is 71.1 versus Tennessee's 60.4, so the raw front talent can overwhelm the protection gap.
    Number Earned
    • Estimated cover probability 57%; fair line about -133 versus DraftKings -105.
    • Current-season EPA matrix: Houston offense -0.0092 and defense +0.0854 allowed; Tennessee offense -0.1139 and defense -0.0036 allowed.
    • Houston's PFF team grade is 78.3 versus Tennessee's 61.6, a substantial quality signal favoring a blowout.
  4. David Montgomery under 13.5 rushing attempts2 models agree
    +101%Won

    Taken at +101 on DraftKings

    2 modelsMister Price, Pick With Pink (NFL) player props
    Why 2 models like it
    Mister Price
    • Montgomery's 2026 attempts are 20, 6, 11, 10: 11.75 per game and under this line in three of four.
    • His 2025 baseline was 9.3 rushing attempts per game; Houston currently splits the backfield with Woody Marks at 45.4% of snaps.
    • Week 1's 20-carry workload shows the line can be beaten if Houston controls the game.
    Pick With Pink (NFL) player props
    • L5 4/5 (80%), L10 9/10 (90%), 2026 season 3/4 (75%) under 13.5 rushing attempts.
    • Montgomery averages 11.75 carries across four 2026 games and has a committee-lead role at 54.6% snap share.
    • Sleeper and ESPN project 14.38 and 13.93 carries, both above the 13.5 line.
  5. Houston Texans exact margin 1-6Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 20¢ on Polymarket US

    Exact ChangeUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's live anchor is Houston -6.5 (-108), with directional support for a Texans-margin bucket.
    • The 24% estimate is model-sensitive to the chosen NFL margin dispersion and to transferring absolute-margin frequencies into this matchup.
  6. Tennessee Titans spread +5.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US

    Sunday LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
Show all 44 picks
  1. Houston Texans spread over 7.5
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle main spread is Houston -6.5 -108 / Tennessee +6.5 -102; devigged Houston-cover probability is 50.7%.
    • Most likely loss: Tennessee wins outright or keeps Houston below an eight-point margin behind its stronger current defensive EPA.
  2. Over 40.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle wake reference is 37.5: Over -110 / Under -103, devigged Over probability 50.8%; the main number at filing remains 37.5.
    • Most likely loss: Tennessee's -0.1139 offensive EPA/play and 13.75 points per game overwhelm the over thesis, leaving the game at 40 points or fewer.
  3. Houston Texans first-half spread over 2.5
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Houston’s offense EPA-to-date is -0.0092 versus Tennessee’s -0.1139, a 0.1047 EPA/play Houston advantage.
    • Houston leads success rate .4734-.4400 and points per drive 1.9267-1.3669; pace/PROE also favor Houston, 28.4175/.1709 versus 28.115/.1064.
    • Pinnacle’s pregame HOU -6.5 scaled by a 0.55 first-half script/possession factor gives a DERIVED REFERENCE of HOU -3.6, above this 2.5 rung.
    • Houston trails 3-0 with 3:06 elapsed in Q1; it must reverse the margin and finish at least three points ahead by halftime.
  4. David Montgomery anytime touchdown
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +135 on DraftKings

    TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 47 carries and 7 targets through four games; he owns 54.6% of Houston RB snaps.
    • Montgomery has scored 3 times already, retaining both rushing and receiving touchdown paths.
    • Houston's -6.5 favorite status and 37.5 total support multiple Texans scoring opportunities.
    • Woody Marks still has 45.4% of Houston RB snaps and 2 rushing touchdowns.
  5. Tennessee Titans first-half spread +3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 63¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current live state is Tennessee 3-0 with 3:06 left in Q1; Houston must lead by 4+ at halftime to lose.
    • Square-root scaling matters: margin SD grows with sqrt(drives), not linearly, so a half has wider relative variance than a mechanically halved game line.
    • VENUE SELF-REFERENCE. EDGE CLASS: INTERNAL COHERENCE, full-game Houston -3.5 is 58c, versus first-half Houston -3.5 at 39c; the shorter window makes Tennessee +3.5 the coherent side.
    • Houston's away offense has only 0.850 points per drive, but one explosive possession can still create a four-point halftime lead.
  6. Game first-half total under 19.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket US full-game total is 37.5 and 2H total is 18.5; simple reconciliation leaves 19.0 for 1H, making 19.5 rich.
    • 2026 points per drive are Houston 1.927 and Tennessee 1.367 through four games; the low-efficiency matchup projects below the board's 19.5.
    • Pace inputs are 28.115 and 28.418 seconds per play; roughly half-game drives plus the square-root scaling of variance favor a tighter first-half total than linear halving implies.
    • Current-season sample is only four games per team; turnovers, defensive scores, and short fields can overwhelm points-per-drive estimates.
  7. Houston Texans under 22.5 team total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    Conversion LedgerNew model
    Why it likes it
    • 35.2% (19/54) Houston third down versus 35.8% (19/53) Tennessee allowed; adjusted 35.5%, REG, below the 36% under gate.
    • 57.1% (8/14) Houston red-zone TD rate versus 66.7% (8/12) Tennessee allowed; both conversion rows point under.
    • Houston averaged -0.0092 offensive EPA/play and 1.927 points/drive; the Tennessee-opponent context averaged 2.05 points/drive.
    • Most likely loss: Houston converts Tennessee's 66.7% red-zone allowance into three touchdowns and reaches 24 points.
  8. Tony Pollard over 51.5 rushing yards
    +92%Won

    Taken at −109 on DraftKings

    NFL Usage AdventureDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pollard averaged 62.0 rushing yards on 15.7 carries over the last three games; 51.5 is 83% of that output.
    • Houston allowed positive defensive EPA per play in three of four games and averaged +0.0854 through Week 4.
    • DraftKings -109 requires about 52.2%; my estimated win probability is 55%.
    • Tennessee is a 6.5-point underdog, so a negative script could shift work toward Tyjae Spears and passing.
  9. Under total 30.5Long shot
    +245%Won

    Taken at 29¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days
  10. First-half total under 19.5 points
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Split Decision (Kalshi 1H)Down 52% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 37.5 full-game sharp total is unchanged from open; 47, 49% maps to roughly 17.6, 18.4 first-half points.
    • Opening-drive points averaged 1.75 for Houston and 0.75 for Tennessee across their four 2026 games.
    • First-down pass rates are 57.8% Houston and 47.9% Tennessee; Tennessee is averaging only 1.37 points per drive.
    • Four-game early-season samples make opening-drive rates noisy.
  11. Cam Ward under 190.5 passing yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    Shoulders of GiantsDown 19% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • O-line state: no game-specific Titans OL injury entry; Houston DL has Kayden McDonald questionable and Clowney late-practice uncertainty.
    • Pass matchup: Titans OL grades 69.7 with 97.7% PBE versus Houston DL grade 71.1 and 11.0% win rate.
    • Run matchup: Tennessee run-block grade is 45.6 against Houston run-defense grade 62.8, limiting efficient rushing relief.
    • McDonald is questionable and Clowney's late practice status adds uncertainty to Houston's pass-rush edge.
  12. C.J. Stroud over 31.5 pass attempts
    +79%Won

    Taken at −126 on DraftKings

    Mister PriceDown 7% profit over 40 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Stroud has 151 attempts through four games: 38, 55, 27, 31, or 37.8 per game.
    • His 2025 and 2024 baselines were 30.2 and 31.3 attempts per game, so the central projection is role-and-script supported rather than a pure hot start.
    • Projection: low 28, central 37, high 48; fair win probability 62% versus 55.8% break-even at -126.
    • Two of four games are at or below 31.5, so the cushion is smaller than the raw average suggests.
  13. David Montgomery over 43.5 rushing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    NFL Regression RadarDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 27 carries over the last 3 games; workload is stable at 6, 11, and 10 carries.
    • His 2026 efficiency has fallen to 2.70 YPC, and this is a new-team sample rather than a stable Texans baseline.
  14. Houston Texans under 22.5 team points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection + internal coherence; Polymarket US is a self-reference, not a sharp team-total quote.
    • Houston offense is -0.0092 EPA/play to date; Tennessee defense is -0.0036 EPA/play allowed.
    • Houston 22.5 plus Tennessee 14.5 equals 37, near the 35.5 game total, but the TT gap is directionally inverted.
    • Houston already has 3 points; an early touchdown sharply reduces the remaining cushion.
  15. Houston Texans under 23.5 team points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • HOU offense -0.009 EPA/play versus TEN defense -0.0036 allowed: near-average matchup, not an explosive-over profile.
    • Houston averages 1.927 points per drive through four games; roughly 21-22 points before injury adjustment.
    • Houston averages 3.5 red-zone trips and 2.0 conversions per game; Tank Dell is officially out.
    • Braden Smith is listed questionable by the official weekly report, while ESPN live data lists him on injured reserve; offensive-line status remains unresolved.
  16. Houston Texans winning margin 7-14Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 26¢ on Kalshi

    NFL EPA Margin SharpDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last-5 EPA profile favors Houston: offense -0.045 vs Tennessee -0.132; defensive EPA allowed -0.050 vs +0.051.
    • Season EPA remains Houston-positive after opponent cross-matchup: Texans offense -0.009 and Titans offense -0.114.
    • Success rate favors Houston 45.9% to 41.5% over the five-game window; points per drive also leads by about 0.56.
    • Houston is 0-4 and its recent defensive EPA includes a volatile 0.2805 allowed mark against Buffalo.
  17. Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans under 35.5 total points
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US

    Shawn’s NFL Live EV HunterUp 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 6-6 with 1:44 left in Q1; 23 EPA-charted plays produced only two field goals.
    • Live success rates are 45.5% Houston and 33.3% Tennessee; combined live EPA/play is negative.
    • Pregame last-10 offense EPA/play was -0.0817 Houston and -0.0670 Tennessee, supporting a low-scoring baseline.
    • Only 13:16 of game time has elapsed; one explosive touchdown can materially damage the under.
  18. Nico Collins receptions over 5.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 7 receptions in both 2026 appearances; 14 catches on 18 targets.
    • Season target rate is 9.0 per game with 7.0 receptions per game.
    • 84.6 PFF route grade and 2.88 yards per route run lead Houston's verified receiving sample.
    • Only two active-game observations make the reception projection sample thin.
  19. David Montgomery 1+ touchdown
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 41¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • RECOMMENDED PROJECTION; VENUE SELF-REFERENCE, 41c yes price has both sides quoted and the contract is tradable.
    • Houston has 14 red-zone trips and 8 conversions through four games; Tennessee has allowed 6 scores on 12 opponent trips.
    • Montgomery leads Houston's current RB chart and usage snapshot: 54.6% snaps, 47 carries, plus 4 touchdowns in four games.
    • Woody Marks still owns 45.4% of Houston snaps and has scored twice in the last two games; this is a committee, not a locked goal-line monopoly.
  20. Houston Texans first touchdown
    +64%Won

    Taken at 61¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Houston owns 14 red-zone trips and 8 conversions; Tennessee has 12 trips and 6 conversions through four games.
    • Houston's pregame points/drive is 1.927 versus Tennessee's 1.367, and Houston's offense EPA-to-date is less negative (-0.0092 versus -0.1139).
    • The market makes Houston a 6.5-point favorite; I explicitly assume a favorable script concentrates early scoring opportunity and goal-line usage for Houston.
    • First-touchdown timing depends on the opening possession and scripted-drive execution, not just full-game efficiency.
  21. Cam Ward over 0.5 passing touchdowns
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −178 on FanDuel

    Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • L5 3/5 (60%), L10 7/10 (70%), 2026 season 3/4 (75%) over 0.5 passing touchdowns.
    • Sleeper and ESPN project 0.88 and 0.92 passing TDs, an 80% projection lift over the 0.5 line.
    • Ward has 100% snaps; Houston allows 20.5 QB PPR points per game, 21% above league average.
    • H2H is 0/1 versus Houston, so the only direct meeting is a negative but tiny sample.
  22. Houston Texans to winFavorite
    +37%Won

    Taken at 73¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Directional check: backing Houston Texans, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Only two of three measures agree: book_levels are tied, Houston 3 versus Tennessee 3.
  23. Houston Texans spread −7.5
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book_levels are Houston 3 versus Tennessee 3: neutral corroboration, but the two core measures agree and thin-side size exceeds a few hundred dollars.
    • Directional coherence: backing Houston Texans -7.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Book_levels do not corroborate the direction, so this is a two-measure signal rather than a three-measure confirmation.
  24. Tennessee Titans spread +3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Titans +3.5 wins on a 3-point Houston win; adjacent Titans +3 pushes.
    • 257 of 1,691 NFL games from 2020-25 landed on margin 3: 15.198% exact-margin push mass.
    • The six-season aggregate may not transfer to this matchup; +3.5 loses if Houston wins by 4 or more.
  25. David Montgomery under 45.5 rushing yards
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 31.8 rushing yards per game across four starts is 30% below the 45.5 projection.
    • Montgomery stayed under in three of four games, with 24, 33, and 10 yards in the latest three.
    • He is the listed RB1 but has averaged only 11.8 carries and a 54.6% snap share.
    • Week 1’s 60-yard performance shows the line can be cleared with one efficient outing.
  26. Xavier Hutchinson over 14.5 receiving yards
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 41.5 receiving yards per game across four starts is 186% above the 14.5 projection.
    • Cleared 14.5 in all four games: 32, 37, 51, and 46 yards.
    • Current depth chart lists Hutchinson WR2; he has 119 route snaps and a 57.6% snap share.
    • Only four games of sample; five-to-nine targets per game still creates volatility.
  27. Game total under 17.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 4¢ on Polymarket US

    Chain MoversUp 177% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 120.5 combined plays and PPD 1.93 HOU/1.37 TEN produce roughly 33.5 mechanism points; sharp main total is 37.5.
    • This is 20 points below the sharp center; tail behavior is materially less certain than the central distribution.
  28. Tennessee Titans first-half winnerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 31¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rest is neutral: Houston 7 days, Tennessee 7 days; no scripted-freshness advantage.
    • Houston leads offensive EPA by 0.1047/play, success rate by 0.0334, PPD by 0.5598, and PROE by 0.0645, but Tennessee leads defensive EPA allowed by 0.0890/play.
    • the balanced EPA-versus-defense profile supports a small Titans contract edge rather than a Houston blowout script.
    • Tennessee's offensive EPA is -0.1139/play and PPD is 1.3669, both materially below Houston's baseline.
  29. Game first-half total under 20.5 points
    +72%Won

    Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rest is even: Houston 7 days, Tennessee 7 days; no short-week distortion.
    • EPA is mixed, not inflated: Houston offense -0.0092/play versus Tennessee -0.1139, but Houston defense +0.0854 versus Tennessee -0.0036.
    • PPD baseline is 3.2936 combined (Houston 1.9267, Tennessee 1.3669); near-identical pace is 28.42 versus 28.12 seconds/play.
    • No rest advantage, so the strongest first-half mechanism is absent.
  30. Houston Texans spread −5.5
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Official Texans preview expects C.J. Stroud and Cam Ward as the opposing starters; the personnel gate is met absent a same-day QB designation.
    • Likeliest loss path: Tennessee's stronger defense, -0.0036 EPA allowed versus Houston's +0.0854, suppresses the Texans’ offense.
  31. Nico Collins over 77.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    Target Quality YardsUp 42% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • NGS REG, 2 games: intended air yards 13.85; separation rose from 1.11 to 2.70 yards, with the latest above his 2025 REG average.
    • PFF REGPO, 2 games: 12 of 17 targets were deep or medium (70.6%); current PFF aDOT is unpublished, so this is partial coverage.
    • NGS REG air-yards share averaged 37.6%; PFF REGPO gives Collins 2.88 YPRR, an 84.6 route grade, and a 90.5% route rate.
    • Only two 2026 games; the 2025 same-team REGPO baseline has 16 games, but the current sample remains partial.
  32. Total points over 38
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Sunday Board PairsUp 33% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Four-game 2026 sample: Houston offense is -0.0092 EPA/play against Tennessee defense at -0.0036; Tennessee offense is -0.1139 against Houston defense at +0.0854.
    • Both offenses are pass-leaning: Houston PROE +0.1711 and Tennessee +0.1066; pace is 28.4175 and 28.115 seconds per play.
    • Equal seven-day rest and a non-neutral site; the captured sportsbook reference total is 37.5, while ProphetX offers the over-38 rung at plus money.
    • Most likely loss: Tennessee's -0.1139 offensive EPA/play persists and Houston cannot generate 39 points.
  33. Tennessee Titans 1Q to win
    0%Push

    Taken at +152 on FanDuel

    NFL Division Dogs 1st Q MLDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Titans scored 6, 0, 6, 3, 6 first-quarter points in their last five games: 4.2 PPG, clearing the 4.0 gate.
    • Houston, Tennessee is an AFC South divisional matchup; familiarity supports the scripted-drive angle.
    • FanDuel offers +152 versus +140 at DraftKings, improving the underdog entry price.
    • Houston's last-five first-quarter defensive EPA allowed was -0.158/play, better than the brief's slow-start threshold of -0.05.
  34. Game total under 37.5 points
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    Brewing NFL Totals 2.0Down 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current-season scoring averages combine for 34.75 points through four games; both offenses rank below zero in EPA/play.
    • Pace is modest at 28.1 seconds/play for Tennessee and 28.4 for Houston; outdoor forecast has 10 mph wind and 20 mph gusts.
    • Total stayed 37.5 while DraftKings under juice moved from -105 to -112, confirming under pressure without losing the key number.
    • Houston has allowed 0.0854 defensive EPA/play and owns a 0.1358 explosive-play rate, creating a path to a fast over.
  35. Carnell Tate over 4.5 receptions
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +109 on DraftKings

    NFL HunterV2Down 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 8.0 targets per game through four current-season games; 12 targets last week.
    • 84.1% season snap share and active status were confirmed on today's board.
    • 57% model probability versus roughly 48% implied at +109 clears the value bar.
    • Tate has cleared 4.5 receptions only twice in four games; the sample is still small.
  36. C.J. Stroud over 20.5 pass completions
    +81%Won

    Taken at −123 on DraftKings

    Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • L5 3/5 (60%), L10 6/10 (60%), 2026 season 3/4 (75%) over 20.5 completions.
    • ESPN projects 21.79 completions versus Sleeper's 19.4; the blended 20.6 is just above the line.
    • Stroud owns a 99.7% snap share; Houston passes on 63.5% of plays and ranks sixth in pace.
    • Projection disagreement straddles the line, so the modeled edge is below the brief's 5% high-conviction threshold.
  37. Tennessee Titans to winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 23¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • live tie at 3-3 with Houston holding only a 92-56 yardage edge; Tennessee remains materially live.
    • Most likely loss: Houston converts its sizable pregame-class advantage into second-half scoring and Tennessee cannot answer.
  38. Houston Texans spread −7
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Houston's five-game offense is -0.0454 EPA/play versus Tennessee's -0.1321; defense allows 0.009 versus 0.0512 EPA/play.
    • Houston's 0-4 record and Tennessee home field can still produce a one-score game.

Questions

Who won Texans vs. Titans?

The Texans won 26–3 on Sunday, Oct 11, 2026.

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