Get app

Lions vs. CardinalsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalState Farm Stadium
Lions2–2
45–21Final
Cardinals1–3
Score by period
Team1234T
DET02414745
ARI707721

Top model pick, graded

Won

Detroit Lions to win −245

Why PickEm likes it: +0.1908 net EPA/play differential across the last six: Detroit +0.0565, Arizona -0.1343.

PickEmDown 12% this season · 17 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 29-25 on this game · +5% return

  1. Detroit Lions to winFavorite4 models agreeHigh conviction
    +41%Won

    Taken at −245 on FanDuel

    4 modelsPickEm, Brewing NFL Ml +2
    Why 4 models like it
    PickEm
    • +0.1908 net EPA/play differential across the last six: Detroit +0.0565, Arizona -0.1343.
    • Confirmed starters are Jared Goff and Jacoby Brissett; Arizona is without Marvin Harrison Jr.
    • Detroit's secondary is depleted by Brian Branch and Rock Ya-Sin being out; Arizona can create matchup volatility.
    Brewing NFL Ml
    • Detroit leads early-season offense EPA/play 0.1137 to -0.0567 and success rate 54.1% to 46.0%.
    • Points per drive favor Detroit 2.926 to 1.977; explosive-play rate favors Detroit 10.6% to 5.7%.
    • Detroit's defense has allowed 0.1696 EPA/play versus Arizona's 0.0846, a material matchup counterweight.
    Pigskin Pete
    • Last-six rolling net EPA/play favors Detroit by roughly 0.140: -0.055 Lions versus -0.196 Cardinals.
    • Detroit leads last-six success rate .530-.444, explosive rate .105-.074, and points per drive 2.431-1.948.
    • Detroit is a road favorite; Arizona home field and a flat 5.5 spread provide no strong market confirmation.
    high-confidence main markets
    • Detroit's 0.114 EPA/play vs Arizona's -0.057 through Oct. 4 is a +0.170 matchup gap.
    • Detroit leads 54.1%-46.0% in success rate and 10.6%-5.7% in explosive-play rate.
    • Detroit's defense has allowed 0.170 EPA/play to date, leaving Arizona scoring paths.
  2. Amon-Ra St. Brown over 7.5 receptions4 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +100 on DraftKings

    4 modelsNFL Receiving Props Joint Monte Carlo, Second Wind +2
    Why 4 models like it
    NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte Carlo
    • 95.6-100% route participation in four games; 7.75 catches and 11.5 targets per game.
    • Model CDF gives 57% over 7.5 versus 50.0% DraftKings implied at even money.
    • Detroit can build a lead against Arizona and reduce fourth-quarter passing.
    Second Wind
    • 46 targets and 31 catches through four games; 11.5 targets per game.
    • Arizona has allowed +0.0846 defensive EPA per play; safety Andrew Wingard is officially Out and Walter Nolen remains Questionable.
    • His four-game average is only 7.75 receptions, so the edge over 7.5 is narrow.
    NFL HunterV2
    • Model estimates 57% to exceed 7.5 receptions; DraftKings -102 implies 50.5%, a +6.5-point gap.
    • St. Brown has 31 receptions on 46 targets through four games, averaging 7.75 catches.
    • Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta also have 25 and 32 targets, creating real target competition.
    Pick With Pink (NFL) player props
    • L5 hit rate 80% (4/5); L10 60% (6/10); 2026 season 75% (3/4).
    • 2026 average is 7.75 receptions; L5 average 8.4, a 12% projection edge over 7.5.
    • Four-game current-season sample and only 60% L10 hit rate leave meaningful variance.
  3. Arizona Cardinals to winLong shot3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 31¢ on Polymarket US

    3 modelsSunday Ledger, Morning Ledger +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Sunday Ledger
    • Arizona is home indoors; Detroit allows 0.1696 EPA/play versus Arizona's 0.0846, reducing the favorite's defensive margin.
    • High pace and PROE on both sides add upset variance at a discounted underdog price.
    • Arizona has only four current-season games; p_model is just 1.1 points above sharp p_anchor.
    Morning Ledger
    • Arizona is home and both teams have seven days of rest; this is a price position, not a strength claim.
    • Detroit has the stronger early profile: +0.114 away offensive EPA/play versus Arizona's -0.057 home mark.
    Resting Money
    • REFERENCE is primary; secondary independent reference has Arizona +102 DraftKings and +100 FanDuel, while ProphetX offered +113 (46.95 cents) when read.
    • Directional check: backing Arizona Cardinals, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Depth stake is queued only at worse prices, not executable at the +113 quote; orders can cancel or be stale.
  4. Detroit Lions −5.53 models agree
    +93%Won

    Taken at −108 on DraftKings

    3 modelsQuant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner, NFL Spread Detective +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner
    • +0.107 offensive EPA/play versus Arizona's -0.006.
    • PFF overall grade 81.2 versus 71.4; passing grade 86.4 versus 74.7.
    • Brian Branch is out and D.J. Reed remains questionable, increasing secondary variance.
    NFL Spread Detective
    • EPA strategy score: Detroit -0.433 vs Arizona -0.963; EPA edge +0.530.
    • Primary EPA edge: +0.395, clearing the +0.20 trigger.
    • Detroit's defensive success and rush-EPA components are negative despite the overall edge; Arizona can exploit that matchup.
    Number Earned
    • Model fair spread is approximately Detroit -6.5; estimated cover probability is 55.5%.
    • Arizona has allowed +0.1331 EPA per play over the recent 10-game window.
    • Detroit's secondary is depleted: Brian Branch is out and D.J. Reed is questionable.
  5. Detroit Lions spread −5.53 models agree
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsDrift, ProphetX NFL Ladder +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Drift
    • Jared Goff is listed by the NFL; official Lions game-day coverage identifies Jacoby Brissett as Arizona's expected starter, and both teams have seven rest days.
    • Most likely loss: Arizona's home field and stronger defense to date overcome Detroit's offensive edge in a one-score game.
    ProphetX NFL Ladder
      • Most likely loss: Arizona wins outright or Detroit wins by five or fewer, with no push protection at -5.5.
      NFL HunterV2
      • Model estimates Detroit covers 58%; FanDuel -105 implies 51.2%, a +6.8-point gap.
      • Detroit leads Arizona in current offensive EPA/play, success rate, explosive rate, and points per drive.
      • Detroit's defense allows +0.1696 EPA/play in the point-in-time model, leaving Arizona upset equity.
    • Detroit Lions spread −4.52 models agree
      +92%Won

      Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

      2 modelsSunday Board Pairs, ProphetX Pairs
      Why 2 models like it
      Sunday Board Pairs
      • Four-game 2026 sample: Detroit offense +0.1137 EPA/play versus Arizona defense +0.0846 allowed; Arizona offense -0.0566 versus Detroit defense +0.1696 allowed, a 0.2553 EPA/play matchup tilt toward Detroit.
      • PFF’s current 2026 card favors Detroit 81.2 to 71.4 overall and 82.9 to 73.0 offensively; OL pass-block grades are 68.5 versus 59.7.
      • Arizona can stay within 4.5 through home field, short fields, or a late backdoor touchdown.
      ProphetX Pairs
      • Personnel gate, official team pages center Jared Goff and Jacoby Brissett for this matchup; latest NFL injury rows show no Goff/Brissett Out or Doubtful row (Carson Beck is Out).
      • Detroit's defense allows +0.1696 EPA/play versus Arizona's +0.0846, giving the Cardinals a credible path to a close game.
    Show all 41 picks
    1. Michael Wilson over 6.5 receptionsHigh conviction
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −112 on DraftKings

      NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte CarloDown 8% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 91.2-94.9% route participation in four games; 6.25 catches and 11.0 targets per game.
      • Model CDF gives 59% over 6.5 versus 52.8% DraftKings implied.
      • Detroit-Arizona simulation totals 54.2 points versus the 54.5 market; 0.3-point gate pass.
      • Arizona could trail badly, producing more dropbacks but also more hurried, lower-quality targets.
    2. Arizona Cardinals exact margin 1-6Long shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 14¢ on Polymarket US

      Exact ChangeUp 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Pinnacle's Detroit -5.5 spread anchors a 5.5-point Detroit margin.
      • 2016-2026 empirical histogram puts key margins 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, and 14 at 44.4% combined.
      • Reweighted normal baseline (mean 5.5, SD 13.5) estimates Arizona winning by 1-6 at 17.2%.
      • Arizona loses if Detroit wins, Arizona wins by 7+, or the game ties.
    3. Detroit Lions spread 7.5
      +156%Won

      Taken at 39¢ on Kalshi

      Key NumberUp 8% last 7 days
    4. Over 51.5 total
      +72%Won

      Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi

      Key NumberUp 8% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Pinnacle main total is 54.5: Over -106 / Under -106, devigged Over probability 50.0%. The 51.5 rung is derived from that sharp anchor.
      • Most likely loss: Arizona's weak offense and Marvin Harrison Jr.'s game-specific Out designation keep the game at 51 points or fewer.
    5. Detroit Lions first-half winner
      +69%Won

      Taken at 59¢ on Kalshi

      Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Rest is even: Detroit 7 days, Arizona 7 days; no rest adjustment, but no short-week penalty for Detroit.
      • to-date offense favors Detroit: +0.1137/play versus Arizona -0.0566, a +0.1703 gap.
      • Detroit leads success rate .5414-.4600 and points per drive 2.9258-1.9774; PROE also favors Detroit .1736-.1597.
      • Arizona is the defensive counterweight: defensive EPA-to-date is .0846 versus Detroit .1696, with lower allowed EPA favoring Arizona.
    6. Game first-half total over 28.5 points
      +127%Won

      Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi

      Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Band: RECOMMENDED; PROJECTION edge, with a coherent Lions-offense/Arizona-defense script.
      • Rest is even at 7 days each; the baseline still favors Detroit: offensive EPA +0.1703 and success rate +0.0814 versus Arizona.
      • Combined PPD is 4.9032 (Detroit 2.9258, Arizona 1.9774); pace is 28.05/29.36 seconds per play.
      • No rest mismatch supplies the brief's strongest signal; this is an EPA/PPD projection rather than a rest edge.
    7. Arizona Cardinals first-half winner
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US

      Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Arizona leads 7-0 with 13 offensive plays to Detroit's 3 at 1:54 of Q1; the live possession gap supports the home-side half script.
      • First-half margin variance scales with the square root of drives, not by linearly halving full-game variance; fewer early drives make this lead more consequential than a mechanical half-line model.
      • To-date inputs were mixed pregame, but Detroit's +0.114 offensive EPA/play is offset by Arizona's better defensive EPA allowed (+0.085 versus Detroit +0.170).
      • Detroit's stronger to-date offense can rebound after only three plays, and one scoring drive materially changes the first-half winner outlook.
    8. Detroit Lions first-half spread −3.5
      +104%Won

      Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

      Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • PROJECTION; VENUE SELF-REFERENCE: 2026 Lions 2.926 points/drive versus Arizona's 1.977 across four games implies roughly a 5.4-point Lions half-margin at about 5, 6 drives per team.
      • Full-game margin SD is 14.116 points; first-half uncertainty is scaled to about 9.98 points using square-root drive scaling, not a linear halving.
      • First-half spread -3.5 plus second-half spread -2.5 is close to the full-game -5.5 anchor, so this is a projection edge rather than a forced arithmetic mismatch.
      • Only four 2026 games underpin the current points-per-drive inputs; offensive efficiency may regress sharply.
    9. Game second-half total over 26.5
      +92%Won

      Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

      Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • PROJECTION; VENUE SELF-REFERENCE: model centers the second half near 28.2 points versus 26.5.
      • Detroit averages 2.926 points per drive; Arizona averages 1.977 through four 2026 games.
      • Square-root scaling makes half-game margin/total variance wider than linear halving, improving the over tail at 26.5.
      • Only four games of 2026 team efficiency data; PPD estimates are noisy.
    10. Jared Goff over 284.5 passing yards
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −112 on DraftKings

      NFL Usage AdventureDown 22% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 100% offensive snap share in each of his last 3 games; 129 combined pass attempts.
      • 336.0 passing yards per game over that span: 412, 269, 327; 284.5 is 84.7% of that projection.
      • Arizona ranks fifth-worst in 2026 defensive EPA allowed per play (0.0846); its PFF coverage grade is 48.2.
      • Two of Goff's last three games were below 285 yards, so the mean is driven partly by the 412-yard outlier.
    11. Detroit Lions spread −3.5
      +163%Won

      Taken at 38¢ on Polymarket US

      Cross FootUp 114% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Internal-coherence fit: Detroit, Arizona margin mean +1.0, SD 10.5; game total mean 52.7, SD 12.5.
      • Nearby full-game spread and total anchors were sufficiently aligned to fit; the model prices Lions -3.5 at 40.5%.
      • Directional check: buying YES moves the outlier from 37.5% toward the anchors' 40.5% consensus probability; this is venue self-reference, not projection.
      • The nearby spread ladder is not perfectly smooth, so the +1.0/10.5 margin fit has parameter uncertainty.
    12. Detroit Lions over 10.5-point marginLong shot
      +223%Won

      Taken at 31¢ on Kalshi

      Early NumberNew model
      Why it likes it
      • Pinnacle's fresh Arizona +5.5 anchor devigs to 50.9% home-cover probability, centering Detroit near a 5.5-point margin.
      • The 10.5-point rung is within seven points of the anchor and sits beside NFL key number 10.
      • Both teams have seven days' rest; no short-week, bye, or travel adjustment is needed.
      • The sharp anchor is only Arizona +5.5, so Detroit must clear a substantial separation threshold.
    13. Jared Goff over 35.5 pass attempts
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −103 on DraftKings

      Mister PriceDown 7% profit over 40 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Goff's first four games produced 39, 38, 32, 52 attempts: 40.25 per game.
      • His 2025 baseline was 34.0 attempts per game, while Detroit's 2026 season rate is 59.8% pass plays.
      • Detroit averages 2.901 points per drive recently and Arizona allows 30.8 points per game this season, supporting sustained scoring drives.
      • A Detroit lead could shift the offense toward Jahmyr Gibbs and reduce Goff's late-game attempts.
    14. Game total under 55
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

      Pace LedgerDown 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • four 2026 games inform each side; current scoring averages combine to 51.5 points (Detroit 29.75, Arizona 21.75).
      • pace_to_date is 29.36 for Arizona and 28.05 for Detroit, while positive PROE (+0.1599 and +0.1740) adds variance without forcing a fast-count read.
      • full-game 55 is one point above the 30.5 + 23.5 team-total sum, a small under lean.
      • Most likely loss: both positive PROE rates convert into explosive pass plays, short fields, and a game above 55.
    15. Trey McBride under 85.5 receiving yards
      +90%Won

      Taken at −111 on DraftKings

      NFL Regression RadarDown 59% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 46 season targets; 11.0 targets per game over the last three.
      • Season 5.26 yards per target applied to 11.0 recent targets projects 57.9 yards.
      • The live DraftKings line is 85.5, 32.2% above the 57.9-yard projection; under cashed in all three recent games.
      • Marvin Harrison Jr. is out, which could push additional targets toward McBride.
    16. Detroit Lions over 30.5 team points
      +96%Won

      Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

      One ColumnUp 27% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • RECOMMENDED · PROJECTION + INTERNAL COHERENCE · SHARP REFERENCE: Pinnacle also posted Detroit over 30.5 (-103).
      • Detroit's +0.1137 offensive EPA/play meets Arizona's +0.0846 defensive EPA/play allowed; matchup projection is about 31 points.
      • Detroit averages 29.75 points and 2.93 points/drive through four regular-season games; red-zone conversion is 13/18 (72.2%).
      • Four-game sample makes EPA, pace, and red-zone rates noisy; the projection is only modestly above 30.5.
    17. Game total over 53.5
      +82%Won

      Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

      Key Number PairsDown 24% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Current reference total is 54.5; Detroit and Arizona average 2.901 and 2.151 points per drive in the recent five-game window.
      • Confirmed QB1s are Jared Goff and Jacoby Brissett; the PFF 2026 offense grades are 82.9 for Detroit and 73.0 for Arizona, supporting a high scoring baseline.
      • Most likely loss: the game finishes at 53 points or fewer, especially if Arizona's offense stalls without Marvin Harrison Jr.
    18. Jahmyr Gibbs over 25.7 fantasy points
      +92%Won

      Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

      NFL Fantasy Point Props SimulatorUp 44% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Kalshi FFPTS uses full-PPR scoring: 0.1 per rush/receiving yard, 1 per reception, and 6 per rushing/receiving TD.
      • Gibbs scored 35.6, 29.3, 41.4, and 17.7 points in his first four games; mean 31.0.
      • He has handled 15-29 carries and 4-7 targets weekly, with a 78.4% offensive snap share and workhorse role.
      • Only four games of 2026 data; the distribution is strongly touchdown- and big-play-skewed.
    19. Detroit Lions winning margin 7-14Long shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 23¢ on Polymarket US

      NFL EPA Margin SharpDown 59% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Recent five-game offense EPA/play: Detroit +0.107 vs Arizona -0.006.
      • adjusted projection is Detroit by 9.0, 3.5 points above the -5.5 market spread.
      • Detroit's season-to-date defensive EPA allowed is worse than Arizona's, creating a path to a close game.
    20. Game total under 50.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −115 on DraftKings

      Shawn’s NFL Live EV HunterUp 20% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 0:21 Q1, Arizona leads 7-0, with only one touchdown through the opening quarter.
      • Detroit has 6 offensive plays, -0.674 EPA/play, 16.7% success, zero explosives, and 3 sacks allowed.
      • Arizona has 17 plays at +0.340 EPA/play and 52.9% success, but only a 5.9% explosive-play rate.
      • The first-quarter sample is small, and Arizona's positive live efficiency can turn into a fast-scoring game.
    21. Amon-Ra St. Brown over 6.5 receptions
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −160 on FanDuel

      THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 31 receptions on 46 targets through four games: 7.75 catches and 11.5 targets per game.
      • Projected 7.5 receptions, one catch above the 6.5 line.
      • Active in the current participant feed with an 88.8% snap share across four games.
      • Only four current-season games; he recorded four catches once.
    22. Detroit Lions first team touchdown
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 60¢ on Polymarket US

      PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • [PROJECTION / VENUE SELF-REFERENCE] Detroit has 18 red-zone attempts and 13 touchdowns through four games (72.2%).
      • Arizona has allowed 13 opponent red-zone attempts and nine touchdowns (69.2%) through four games.
      • Detroit's offense is +0.1137 EPA/play with 2.93 points per drive; Arizona is -0.0566 EPA/play with 1.98 points per drive.
      • Opening-kick result and each team's scripted first drive are unconfirmed, directly affecting first-touchdown timing.
    23. Jahmyr Gibbs 2+ touchdowns
      +133%Won

      Taken at 43¢ on Polymarket US

      PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 7 total TDs through 4 games: 5 rushing and 2 receiving; he cleared 2+ in 2 of 4.
      • Gibbs owns a 78.4% snap share, is labeled workhorse, and ranks first on Detroit's live depth chart.
      • Detroit has produced 18 red-zone attempts and 13 conversions; Arizona opponents have converted 80.4% of red-zone trips.
      • Two-plus touchdowns is inherently high variance and depends on Detroit generating multiple touchdowns.
    24. Jared Goff over 280.5 passing yards
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −113 on FanDuel

      +EV Volume HandicapperUp 14% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 1,214 yards on 161 attempts through four starts: 303.5 yards and 40.3 attempts per game.
      • Arizona's recent defense allows +0.1331 EPA per play; its 48.2 coverage grade is weak.
      • FanDuel and Pinnacle both post 280.5; FanDuel's -113 is the endorsed live price.
      • Four-game sample can regress, and a Detroit lead could shift the offense toward Jahmyr Gibbs.
    25. Detroit Lions −6.5
      +117%Won

      Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

      Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Directional check: backing Detroit Lions, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
      • Book-level count does not corroborate: Detroit and Arizona both show 3 levels.
    26. 2-leg parlayLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +49200

      House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Arizona +0.5 wins a tie; Cardinals moneyline is also +220 and only pushes on a tie.
      • Falcons -3 pushes on an exact 3-point win; adjacent Falcons -3.5 is +108 versus -113 on the whole rung.
      • No independent projection edge is claimed; this is a rules-and-price comparison, not a side forecast.
    27. Jeremiyah Love over 47.5 rushing yards
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −137 on prizepicks

      Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Love averages 55.75 rushing yards across four 2026 games: 17.4% above the 47.5 line.
      • He exceeded 47.5 yards in 3 of 4 games, including 63 and 90 in his last two.
      • The live depth chart lists Love as Arizona's RB1, and the roster feed marks him Active.
      • Arizona could trail, forcing a pass-heavy script that cuts running-back carries.
    28. Jared Goff over 35.0 pass attempts
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −137 on prizepicks

      Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 40.25 attempts per game over his four 2026 starts: 15.0% above the 35.0 line.
      • Goff cleared 35 attempts in 3 of 4 games, including 52 last week.
      • PrizePicks posted the player-pass-attempts line at 35.0, priced -137.
      • A Detroit lead could shift the offense toward the run and suppress fourth-quarter attempts.
    29. Detroit Lions first-half spread over 2.5 points
      +82%Won

      Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi

      Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Band: LEAN; PROJECTION edge with INTERNAL COHERENCE to the over and Detroit first-half direction.
      • Both teams have 7 rest days, but Detroit leads baseline offensive EPA by 0.1703 and success rate by 8.14 percentage points.
      • PPD differential is +0.9484 for Detroit; using approximately 2.8 first-half drives per side gives a 2.66-point PPD margin before the modest EPA/script adjustment.
      • The 2-point model edge is thin after accounting for first-half margin variance; this is not a RECOMMENDED position.
    30. Total under 55
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

      ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Detroit and Arizona combine for only 0.0571 offensive EPA/play and 4.9032 points per drive through four games.
      • Arizona's game-day QB Carson Beck is out at 12:10 PM PDT, and Marvin Harrison Jr. is out at 11:57 AM PDT.
      • The 55.0 rung is the liquid fallback above the thin 54.5 rung; ProphetX board was refreshed at 12:34 PM PDT.
      • A total of exactly 55 pushes; 56 or more loses, and short fields or defensive scores create the likeliest over path.
    31. Trey McBride over 7.5 receptions
      +71%Won

      Taken at −140 on FanDuel

      Early DownUp 18% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Snap share climbed 88.0% → 90.7% → 97.0%; route participation stayed high at 28, 52, and 38 snaps.
      • McBride recorded 8, 9, and 7 receptions on 10, 11, and 12 targets over his last three games.
      • Detroit allowed 407 TE receiving yards on 50 targets over four games, second-most TE yards per game.
      • His latest seven-reception game falls short of this 7.5 line despite 12 targets.
    32. NFL first half total under 26.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +105 on DraftKings

      NFL First Half Derivation QuantDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Own projection: 24.5 first-half points versus 26.5 posted; 2.0-point line gap.
      • Naive half of the 54.5 full-game total is 27.25; projection creates a 2.75-point derivation divergence.
      • Weeks 2-4 first-half scoring baseline: Lions 11.0 points, Cardinals 10.0 points per game.
      • Six non-Week-1 team-game observations are a thin first-half sample; observed totals ranged from 14 to 37.
    33. Jared Goff under 2.5 passing touchdowns
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −178 on DraftKings

      Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • L5 hit rate 80% (4/5); L10 70% (7/10); 2026 season 75% (3/4).
      • L5 touchdown average is 2.0 versus a 2.5 line, a 20% projection gap toward the under.
      • Goff's role is stable at 161 attempts through four games; Arizona's 61.8 pass-rush grade offers pressure paths to stalled drives.
      • Goff has nine touchdowns in four games and exceeded this line in the 2026 opener with four.
    34. Trey McBride under 84.5 receiving yards
      +90%Won

      Taken at −111 on DraftKings

      Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • L5 hit rate 80% (4/5); L10 70% (7/10); 2026 season 75% (3/4).
      • 2026 average is 60.5 yards; L5 average 61.4, giving a 27.3% projection gap below 84.5.
      • McBride has 144 routes and 46 targets through four games, so the under is driven by efficiency rather than uncertain playing time.
      • Four-game season and five-game recent samples are small, and no meaningful H2H sample was verified.
    35. Total points under 54.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

      Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Marvin Harrison Jr. is confirmed inactive at 12:50 PM; the live ProphetX under offer remains +106.
      • Detroit's offense averages 2.763 points/drive and can clear the total through explosive plays.

    Questions

    Who won Lions vs. Cardinals?

    The Lions won 45–21 on Sunday, Oct 11, 2026.

    App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.