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Raiders vs. PatriotsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalGillette Stadium
Raiders3–1
17–45Final
Patriots2–2
Score by period
Team1234T
LV703717
NE147141045

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total Q2 under 13.5 50¢

Why Opening Drive likes it: Pregame PIT: New England averages 1.31 points per drive and Las Vegas 2.39; five-to-six combined drives center below 13.5.

Opening DriveUp 24% return this season · 46 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 7-44 on this game · −69% return

  1. Las Vegas Raiders to win7 models agreeHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +154 on DraftKings

    7 modelsQuantitative +EV Analyst, EV & Line Value Multi-Sport Scanner +5
    Why 7 models like it
    Quantitative +EV Analyst
    • Season-to-date net EPA edge is +0.2752/play for Las Vegas versus New England.
    • Last-10 net EPA edge remains +0.1244/play; Raiders PPD 2.388 versus Patriots 1.307.
    • New England remains the sharp-market favorite at roughly 63.4% home win probability and has home-field advantage.
    EV & Line Value Multi-Sport Scanner
    • Raiders lead New England in offense EPA/play, -0.0225 to -0.1515.
    • PFF grades favor Las Vegas overall 73.6 to 68.9 and offense 71.3 to 66.5.
    • Ashton Jeanty is questionable, and his availability could materially change Las Vegas' offensive efficiency.
    Pigskin Pete
    • Season-to-date offense EPA/play: Raiders +0.0556 versus Patriots -0.1064; defense also favors Las Vegas, -0.1319 versus -0.0187 allowed.
    • Points per drive is 2.39 for Las Vegas versus 1.31 for New England; Raiders are 3-1 with a +7.8 recent scoring margin.
    • The sharp reference still makes Las Vegas a substantial underdog; this is a contrarian 11-point probability disagreement.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Through four 2026 games, Las Vegas leads offensive EPA/play 0.0556 to -0.1064.
    • Las Vegas leads defensive EPA/play allowed -0.1319 to -0.0187 and points/drive 2.3877 to 1.3065.
    • Likeliest loss path: New England's home field and a turnover swing erase Las Vegas' efficiency advantage.
  2. Las Vegas Raiders spread +3.54 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    4 modelsDrift, Sunday Board Pairs +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Drift
    • Raiders lead to-date offense EPA/play 0.0556 to -0.1064 and defense EPA allowed -0.1319 to -0.0187.
    • Ashton Jeanty remains questionable, while Raiders C/G Trey Zuhn III is out; late personnel changes could reduce the offensive edge.
    Sunday Board Pairs
    • Four-game 2026 sample: Raiders offense is +0.0556 EPA/play versus New England's -0.0187 defensive EPA/play allowed, a +0.0743 matchup gap.
    • Raiders defense allows -0.1319 EPA/play against a Patriots offense at -0.1064, reinforcing the two-way efficiency lean toward Las Vegas.
    • Most likely loss: New England converts the matchup into a 4+ point win through turnovers, short fields, or late-game variance.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Raiders lead Patriots by 0.162 EPA/play in the pregame feature row.
    • Raiders defense is -0.1319 EPA/play allowed versus New England at -0.0187.
    • Ashton Jeanty is game-day questionable with an ankle injury, creating workload uncertainty.
    Number Earned
    • Raiders: +0.0079 offensive EPA/play and -0.1118 defensive EPA allowed/play over the recent five-game window.
    • Patriots: -0.119 offensive EPA/play and only 2-2 with -3.0 points per game in the recent form card.
    • Ashton Jeanty is still questionable with an ankle injury; his absence lowers Raiders offensive efficiency and rushing balance.
  3. Las Vegas Raiders +3.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    3 modelsBills Belichicks, Resting Money +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Bills Belichicks
    • Klint Kubiak's 3-1 career record is 16.7 percentage points above Mike Vrabel's 70-50 mark.
    • Raiders average 30 penalty yards per game versus New England's 46 through four games.
    • Kubiak's 3-1 head-coaching sample is extremely thin; the live coach record lists zero prior experience years.
    Resting Money
    • Book levels tie 3-3; backing Raiders, the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. ProphetX price 50.5c.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate: 3 Raiders levels versus 3 Patriots levels.
    NFL HunterV2
    • Model probability 58% versus 52.4% market-implied: +5.6 points.
    • Raiders lead current-season EPA/play (+0.056 to -0.106) and points per drive (2.39 to 1.31).
    • Ashton Jeanty's ankle/foot status remains Questionable after not practicing; his absence could reduce Raiders efficiency.
  4. Las Vegas Raiders spread over 2.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 33¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • LV efficiency leads: +0.0556 vs NE -0.1064 offensive EPA and -0.1319 vs -0.0187 defensive EPA allowed; LV mean shifted 1.5 points.
    • Most likely loss: New England wins outright or holds the margin under three behind home field and a better-than-expected Drake Maye performance.
  5. Under total 38.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 30¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Both teams are slow by the ledger: LV 29.90 and NE 29.83 seconds/play; NE offense is -0.1064 EPA/play with 1.3065 points/drive.
    • Most likely loss: Las Vegas converts its +0.0556 offensive EPA profile into explosive drives and the game reaches 39 points.
  6. Las Vegas Raiders first-half winner
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 37¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rest: Las Vegas 7 days, New England 7 days; no rest edge, so this is a pure efficiency projection.
    • LV matchup EPA is +0.0185/play versus NE at -0.1192/play, a +0.1376 LV gap.
    • LV leads success rate .475 to .4676, PROE .0717 to .0580, and points per drive 2.3877 to 1.3065.
    • No short-week or bye advantage; the brief's strongest rest lever is absent.
Show all 40 picks
  1. Game total Q2 under 13.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening DriveUp 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pregame PIT: New England averages 1.31 points per drive and Las Vegas 2.39; five-to-six combined drives center below 13.5.
    • New England's −0.1064 offensive EPA/play and Las Vegas's +0.0556 profile do not require a shootout projection.
    • Second quarter retains first-half script residue; the 12-point model/price separation clears the wider quarter-market variance bar.
    • The live first quarter has already produced 21 points; current EPA/play is 0.4867 for New England and 0.3349 for Las Vegas.
  2. Brock Bowers anytime touchdown
    +140%Won

    Taken at +140 on DraftKings

    TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Bowers has scored twice on 24 targets across his two active games.
    • His 83.0 PFF route grade, 2.43 yards per route run and 80.5% snap share indicate high-quality, concentrated opportunity.
    • Raiders' +0.0556 offensive EPA/play and 2.3877 points per drive support multiple scoring paths.
    • Bowers' two-game sample is unusually short and touchdown rates regress quickly.
  3. Ashton Jeanty first touchdownLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +700 on DraftKings

    TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Jeanty owns 75.8% season snaps, 78 carries and 24 targets through four games.
    • Raiders model for roughly 2.8 offensive touchdowns; the first-score module credits Jeanty's opening-possession workload.
    • Official game-day source confirms Jeanty active despite the ankle question.
    • An active ankle issue could still trim Jeanty's early workload.
  4. Las Vegas Raiders second-half winner
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 38¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • VENUE SELF-REFERENCE; EDGE CLASS: PROJECTION + INTERNAL COHERENCE.
    • Raiders' 2026 to-date road points per drive: 2.81 versus Patriots' home 2.34; EPA inputs also favor Las Vegas.
    • Possession variance scales with the square root of drives, not linearly with drives; that widens half-game uncertainty versus naive halving.
    • The 2H market is thin relative to the full game; self-reference deserves conservative sizing.
  5. Game first-half total under 23.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • VENUE SELF-REFERENCE; EDGE CLASS: PROJECTION.
    • 2026 through four games: Raiders average 28.75 points, Patriots 16.25; Patriots' offense averages only 1.307 points per drive.
    • Similar pace inputs (29.90 Raiders, 29.83 Patriots seconds/play) produce about 20.3 modeled first-half points, below 23.5.
    • The 2026 sample is four games; Patriots points per drive ranged from 0.60 to 2.33.
  6. Las Vegas Raiders first-half spread +2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • VENUE SELF-REFERENCE; EDGE CLASS: PROJECTION.
    • 2026 inputs: Raiders +0.056 offensive EPA/play versus Patriots -0.106; Raiders defense -0.132 EPA/play allowed versus Patriots -0.019.
    • Points per drive are 2.388 for Las Vegas versus 1.307 for New England across four games; pace is nearly identical.
    • Only four 2026 games inform the EPA and points-per-drive inputs; early-season estimates are noisy.
  7. Romeo Doubs over 49.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    Target Quality YardsUp 42% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PFF REGPO, 4 games: 6 deep, 6 medium and 6 short targets; weighted depth is approximately 17.4 yards, with 66.7% deep-plus-medium.
    • NGS REG, 1 current-season row: 14.68 intended air yards and 2.82-yard separation; separation exceeds his 2025 nine-row average of 2.51.
    • NGS REG air-yards share is 35.4%; PFF REGPO has 1.88 YPRR, 93.1% route rate and 1.86 YPRR in his 2025 baseline.
    • Only one current-season NGS row and Doubs changed teams; the partial estimate is sensitive to role translation.
  8. Drake Maye over 32.5 rushing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    NFL Usage AdventureDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 37.6 ESPN and 36.1 Sleeper rushing-yard projections clear the 32.5-yard line.
    • Maye owns a 93.7% snap share and averages 5.3 carries across his last three games.
    • New England is favored with a 24.5-point implied total, supporting quarterback rushing opportunities.
    • Raiders rank fifth in defensive EPA allowed and 15th versus quarterbacks, limiting matchup upside.
  9. Over total 45.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days
  10. New England Patriots first-half spread over 2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Split Decision (Kalshi 1H)Down 52% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full-game sharp spread remains Patriots -3.5, unchanged from the -3.5 open; baseline first-half margin is only about +1.75.
    • Recent first two drives: Raiders posted a 53.3% early-down pass rate and scored on 3 of 4 opening drives for 17 points.
    • Recent first two drives: Patriots posted a 39.5% early-down pass rate and scored on 1 of 4 opening drives for 7 points.
    • Ashton Jeanty remains questionable for Las Vegas, creating meaningful uncertainty around the Raiders' early offense.
  11. Ashton Jeanty over 14.5 rushing attempts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +101 on DraftKings

    Snap ShareDown 16% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Weeks 2-4 role: 81.0%/24, 84.3%/26, 66.7%/35 snap share/routes.
    • Workhorse RB1: 75.8% season snaps, 36.6% run-snap rate, 63.3% route participation.
    • Raiders averaged 69.5 plays; project 68 plays, 30.8 rushes, Jeanty 17.2 attempts.
    • ESPN_live lists Jeanty Questionable while the fresh odds participant feed lists him Active; limitation risk remains.
  12. Romeo Doubs under 49.5 receiving yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on DraftKings

    NFL Regression RadarDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 17 targets over his last 3 games produced 203 yards.
    • His 2026 baseline is 10.15 yards per target; 17 targets project to 172.6 yards versus 203 actual, a 17.6% overperformance gap.
    • The 17-target sample is only three games and includes a 96-yard outlier.
  13. Las Vegas Raiders over 20.5 team points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • LV offense is +0.0556 EPA/play with 2.388 points per drive; NE defense is -0.0187 EPA/play allowed.
    • A pace-adjusted offense-versus-defense blend fits Las Vegas around 24, 25 points, above the 20.5 threshold.
    • Las Vegas scored 27, 35, 26, and 27 in its four regular-season games; 29.90 pace is near the 30.38 league average.
    • NE’s defense is slightly better than league average, so a few stalled red-zone drives can leave LV at 20 or below.
  14. Game total under 47
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number PairsDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Form supports a lower baseline: Las Vegas offense is +0.0556 EPA/play and New England is -0.1064; both defenses are negative EPA allowed.
    • The Raiders average 2.388 points per drive versus New England's 1.306; the 45.5 market total leaves room for a 47 protection rung.
    • QB gate passes: Kirk Cousins and Drake Maye were QB1 at the latest 12:00 AM PDT depth-chart snapshot; neither is Out or Doubtful in the latest injury surface.
    • Most likely loss: a late touchdown, defensive score, or overtime pushes the game to 48 or more.
  15. Brock Bowers over 8.5 receptions
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +105 on DraftKings

    Shawn’s NFL Live EV HunterUp 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Bowers has 2 catches on 2 targets for 37 yards at 1:30 of Q1, confirming immediate route and target involvement.
    • His 2026 baseline is 16 receptions on 24 targets across two games, or 8.0 catches per game.
    • The +105 8.5-reception rung offers materially better payout than the sharper lower 6.5-reception reference.
    • Only two baseline games and one live drive create substantial target-share uncertainty.
  16. New England Patriots exact margin 7-14Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 19¢ on Polymarket US

    Exact ChangeUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 1,254 of 2,824 margins (44.4%) were key numbers 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, or 14; Tier 1 is stable.
    • Pinnacle’s live sharp anchor is New England -3.5 (-101), centering the margin baseline near a modest home edge.
    • The 7, 14 bucket contains key numbers 7, 10, and 14; reweighting the smooth baseline gives approximately 20.0% probability.
    • The estimated edge is only about 1, 2 percentage points before venue fees; variance dominates.
  17. Kirk Cousins 2+ passing touchdowns
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION / INTERNAL COHERENCE; venue self-reference.
    • 11 passing TDs in four games; Cousins has reached 2+ in all four, including 3+ three times.
    • Depth chart and usage leader both confirm Cousins as QB1 with a 100% snap share.
    • Four-game sample is thin; 2.75 passing TDs per game is unlikely to persist.
  18. Las Vegas Raiders first touchdown
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 41¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket US offers Las Vegas first touchdown at 41¢; my usage estimate is 48%.
    • Las Vegas has 15 red-zone trips and 8 conversions through four games; New England has only 9 and 4.
    • Las Vegas averages 2.39 points per drive with +0.0556 offensive EPA; New England is at 1.31 and -0.1064.
    • New England’s defense has allowed 7 of 12 opponent red-zone trips to convert; Las Vegas has allowed 10 of 13.
  19. Over 45.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels tie 3-3; backing over, the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. ProphetX price 48.78c.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate: over has 3 levels versus under's 3 levels.
  20. Hunter Henry under 37.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 33.25-yard average across four 2026 games is 11.3% below the 37.5 line.
    • Under in 3 of 4 games; only the Week 4 spike cleared this number comfortably.
    • Raiders rank 5th in current-season defensive EPA per play at -0.1319.
    • A single deep completion or red-zone-heavy script can clear 37.5 quickly.
  21. Game total under 30.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 12¢ on Polymarket US

    Chain MoversUp 177% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Four-game inputs: LV/NE pace is 29.90/29.83 seconds per play, PROE +7.2%/+5.8%, and points per drive 2.39/1.31.
    • Far-tail scoring is less certain than the center; the 13.5-point SD is an approximation, not fitted tail data.
  22. Game first-half total under 28.5 pointsLong shot
    +300%Won

    Taken at 25¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rest is 7 days versus 7: no short-week distortion; the under is driven by baseline scoring and the live price.
    • Combined PPD is 3.6942, with near-equal pace at 29.83 seconds/play for New England and 29.90 for Las Vegas.
    • The live score is 14-14 with 18:54 left in the half; my residual-drive reweight projects roughly 26.5 first-half points, making 15+ more points the loss path.
    • Fourteen points are already on the board; two touchdowns plus a field goal in the remaining half would beat 28.5.
  23. New England Patriots first-half spread NO 2.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 32¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rest is 7 days versus 7: no freshness edge; the position is efficiency-driven.
    • EPA matchup favors Las Vegas: +0.1376/play combined proxy (LV +0.0185 versus NE -0.1192).
    • LV leads PPD 2.3877 to 1.3065; pace is nearly identical at 29.90 versus 29.83 seconds/play.
    • No rest mismatch supplies the brief's strongest first-half signal.
  24. Las Vegas Raiders spread +3
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • game sample: Raiders offense +0.0556 EPA/play versus Patriots -0.1064, a +0.1620 gap.
    • Raiders defense allows -0.1319 EPA/play versus New England -0.0187, a further 0.1132-play defensive advantage.
    • Kirk Cousins was confirmed as Las Vegas' starter; Drake Maye is the Patriots' starter, clearing the QB availability gate.
    • Only four current-season games support the EPA comparison; early-season estimates are volatile.
  25. Las Vegas Raiders 1H spread +2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Novig

    Half MeasureUp 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model: full-game NE -3.5 × roughly 0.50, shaded to NE -1.5; LV +2.5 clears the minimum 1.0-point deviation.
    • Raiders’ last six first halves averaged 10.8 points scored and 9.3 allowed, a +1.5-point differential.
    • Patriots’ last six first halves were materially stronger: 14.3 points scored and 7.8 allowed per game.
  26. Las Vegas Raiders over 3.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    PickEmDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last six net EPA/play: Raiders +0.074 versus Patriots -0.054, a +0.128 Raiders differential.
    • Through four games, Raiders offense EPA/play is -0.0225 versus New England's -0.1515.
    • Four Patriots cornerbacks are officially out; Charles Woods remains questionable.
    • Fallback last-six net yards/play favors New England, +0.08 to -0.40.
  27. Ashton Jeanty under 16 fantasy pointsFavorite
    +49%Won

    Taken at 67¢ on Kalshi

    NFL Fantasy Point Props SimulatorUp 44% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Jeanty is officially questionable with ankle/foot issues after a Friday DNP; Las Vegas elevated another running back.
    • Sleeper PPR projection is 12.78 points; my injury-mixture posterior gives 72% for under 16.
    • If Jeanty clears the workout fully, his 75.8% snap share and 24.25 recent touches can produce 17+.
  28. Las Vegas Raiders winning margin 1-6Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 17¢ on Kalshi

    NFL EPA Margin SharpDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last-5 EPA: Las Vegas offense +0.0079/play and defense -0.1118 allowed; New England is -0.119 and +0.0382.
    • EPA matchup projects roughly a Raiders +5.5 to +6 margin versus Patriots -3.5, a 9-point spread divergence.
    • Ashton Jeanty is questionable, and late availability could materially change Las Vegas' offensive distribution.
  29. TreVeyon Henderson over 12.5 rushing attempts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +106 on DraftKings

    NFL HunterV2Down 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model probability 56% versus 48.5% market-implied: +7.5 points.
    • Henderson already averages 12.7 carries across three games, essentially matching the line before the role change.
    • Stevenson's official out designation removes New England's 44 carries and 0.615 season snap-share lead from the backfield.
    • Henderson has only 38 carries and a 0.433 season snap share, so the workload projection is thin.
  30. New England Patriots under 24.5 team points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −118 on FanDuel

    NFL HunterV2Down 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model probability 61% versus 54.1% market-implied: +6.9 points.
    • New England averages only 1.31 points per drive and -0.106 EPA/play this season.
    • The Raiders allow -0.132 defensive EPA/play and own a 72.2 pass-rush grade against a Patriots line with a 53.4 center pass-block grade.
    • Raiders' Jeanty uncertainty could give New England favorable field position or extra possessions.
  31. New England Patriots team total under 24.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −118 on FanDuel

    +EV Volume HandicapperUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Patriots average 1.3065 points per drive and -0.1064 offensive EPA/play through four games.
    • Raiders defense allows -0.1319 EPA/play; New England has scored 65 points in four games.
    • Own under estimate 60.0% versus FanDuel break-even 54.1%: +5.9 points.
    • Rhamondre Stevenson is game-day questionable with a knee injury; playing effectively would lift rushing output.
  32. DeMario Douglas under 2.5 receptions
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • L5 under hit rate: 4/5 (80%); L10: 8/10 (80%); 2026 season: 3/4 (75%).
    • Recent-game average is 2.2 receptions; the 2.5 line implies a 12% under-side projection margin.
    • Target share is volatile, ranging from 8.1% to 21.2%; one concentrated game script can beat the under.
  33. Las Vegas Raiders +7.5 spreadFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 66¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • exact final margin 7 occurred in 19.133% of 2016-25 NFL regular/post games.
    • ProphetX charges only a 4-American-point premium: +7.5 at -194 (65.99¢) versus +7 at -190 (65.52¢ implied).
    • DraftKings -212 and FanDuel -235 also price Raiders +7.5, above ProphetX's -194.
    • Raiders +7.5 still loses if New England wins by 8 or more; this desk is not adding a game-projection claim.
  34. Under 45.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −120 on DraftKings

    Number EarnedDown 26% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Recent scoring averages imply approximately 42.6 combined points: Las Vegas 28.8 scored/21.0 allowed, New England 16.3 scored/19.3 allowed.
    • New England's offense is at -0.119 EPA/play over the recent five-game window, while Las Vegas allows -0.1118 defensive EPA/play.
    • Raiders games have stayed under this number in three of four current-season results; the Patriots have produced 23 or fewer points in three of four.
    • Both teams have recent explosive-play rates above 9%, so a few chunk gains can clear 45.5 quickly.

Questions

Who won Raiders vs. Patriots?

The Patriots won 45–17 on Sunday, Oct 11, 2026.

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