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FinalTruist Park
Reds73-84
2-3
Braves92-65
Score by period
Team12345678910T
CIN10000010002
ATL00000110013

Top model pick, graded

Won

Atlanta Braves to win −255

Why Brewing MLB Ml likes it: Chris Sale is confirmed against Andrew Abbott: Sale owns a 3.06 xERA and .271 xwOBA allowed versus Abbott's 5.02 and .341.

Brewing MLB MlUp 27% return this season · 70 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 13-11 on this game · −6% return

  1. Atlanta Braves to winFavorite4 models agree
    +39%Won

    Taken at −255 on FanDuel

    4 modelsBrewing MLB Ml, MLB ML Deep Dive +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Brewing MLB Ml
    • Chris Sale is confirmed against Andrew Abbott: Sale owns a 3.06 xERA and .271 xwOBA allowed versus Abbott's 5.02 and .341.
    • Sale's season K/9 is 10.89 versus Abbott's 7.08, with Atlanta holding the clear starting-pitching edge.
    • Cincinnati's current xwOBA versus left-handed pitching is .3217, above Atlanta's .3056, limiting the lineup matchup edge.
    MLB ML Deep Dive
    • Own estimate: Atlanta 75% win probability; fair line approximately −300.
    • Chris Sale: 3.06 xERA, .271 xwOBA allowed, 10.89 K/9 and 1.78 BB/9.
    • Cincinnati owns the stronger season platoon split versus left-handers: .322 xwOBA versus Atlanta's .306.
    Drift
    • Atlanta run differential +116 versus Cincinnati −159 through 157 games.
    • Confirmed Chris Sale xERA 3.06 versus confirmed Andrew Abbott xERA 5.02; both starters posted.
    • The model is a compact run-differential/starter blend; current-season starter xERA inputs are snapshot-based and sample details are limited.
    Undertow
    • MLB dossier supports the direction: Sale 2.18 ERA/0.27 xwOBA against versus Abbott 4.76/0.34; Atlanta is 92-65 versus Cincinnati 73-84.
    • Cincinnati leads 1-0 in the bottom of the second; the live state can quickly invalidate the pregame matchup advantage.
  2. Chris Sale over 7.5 strikeouts3 models agree
    +114%Won

    Taken at +114 on FanDuel

    3 modelsSeñor Strikeouts, Picks with pink pro reader +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Señor Strikeouts
    • Sale recorded 6, 7, 11, and 6 Ks in his last four starts, with 94-109 pitches each time.
    • FanDuel offers +114 on an eight-or-more strikeout outcome equivalent to this 7.5 line.
    • Sale has been on extended rest: 12 days since his September 11 start, creating command and workload uncertainty.
    Picks with pink pro reader
    • Sale has 10.89 K/9 for the season and 10.32 K/9 over his last five starts.
    • Sale is confirmed active and starting; the posted lineup and odds feed identify this exact matchup.
    • Sale exceeded 7.5 strikeouts in only 4 of his last 10 starts, failing the brief's recent-form threshold.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Estimated true probability 56%; Pinnacle devigged reference is 45.6%, a 10.4-point gap.
    • Sale owns an 11.82 K/9 season rate, with 12.00 over his last 3 and 12.33 over his last 5.
    • Sale reached 8+ strikeouts in only 3 of his last 7 starts.
  3. Andrew Abbott under 4.5 strikeouts2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −185 on BetMGM

    2 modelsK-Zone Fade, Slate K Model · Sharp Reference Layer
    Why 2 models like it
    K-Zone Fade
    • Abbott averaged 66.3 pitches over his last three starts (98, 43, 58), creating short-outing risk to the over.
    • Abbott's season workload is 89.32 pitches per start, so a normal full outing can produce five-plus strikeouts.
    Slate K Model · Sharp Reference Layer
    • Pinnacle 3.5 anchor (−145 over / +109 under) de-vigs to 55.2% over.
    • Confirmed nine-man Atlanta lineup plus Abbott's 125 K in 701 BF feed a Poisson-binomial baseline.
    • Estimated edge is only about 1.2 percentage points before model error and market friction.
  4. Elly De La Cruz over 0.5 hits2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −155 on BetMGM

    2 modelsPicks with pink pro reader, Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    Why 2 models like it
    Picks with pink pro reader
    • Model: approximately 72% after blending .2865 season average with 13-for-35 over his last 10 and discounting Sale's contact suppression.
    • Elly recorded a hit in 8 of his last 10 appearances, clearing the brief's 60% recent-form threshold.
    • Chris Sale owns a 2.18 ERA and .220 expected batting average allowed this season.
    Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    • 8 hits in his last 10 games (80%) versus a −190 implied rate near 65.5%.
    • 2026 average versus left-handed pitching is .3375, 17.8% above his .2865 season average.
    • Ten-game form sample can regress sharply in one plate-appearance-driven market.
  5. Cincinnati Reds spread +1.5
    +61%Won

    Taken at 62¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Anchors imply Atlanta around 56% to win, with the 7.5-run total leaning under.
    • In 1,006 2026 games totaling seven runs or fewer, the away +1.5 cover rate was 68.9%.
    • Live FanDuel/DraftKings reference prices Reds +1.5 at −220/−222, independently supporting this direction.
    • This is a live game at 1-0; bullpen usage and score-state changes can move the fitted distribution.
  6. Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves first-five total under 3.5 (first 5 innings)
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Liquid Polymarket US anchors imply Atlanta around 71% and a full-game total centered near 7.5 runs.
    • 5,681 MLB finals show a right-skewed shape: 9.1 average, 9 median, 12 at the 75th percentile, 15 at the 90th.
    • Applying the anchor total to the starter-heavy first five gives roughly 3.6, 3.8 expected runs and about 53% for 3 or fewer.
    • An early defensive mistake, walk cluster, or either starter's poor command can produce four runs before the sixth.
Show all 18 picks
  1. Atlanta Braves over 4.5 runs scored
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Andrew Abbott's current 2026 last-five line is 9.61 ERA, 1.98 WHIP, and 19.67 innings.
    • Abbott's season quality-of-contact profile is .341 xwOBA allowed and 5.02 expected ERA.
    • The Atlanta-vs-left split is labeled season 2025, so it is not a clean current-season sample.
  2. Austin Riley hits NO 0.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi

    Quiet BatUp 14% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Riley is 35-for-180 (.2215) versus lefties in 2026, with 58 strikeouts; season profile is .2177 AVG and 31.5% K.
    • One Riley hit loses the contract; a single Sale mistake or favorable BABIP is enough.
  3. Ke'Bryan Hayes under 0.5 RBIFavoriteHigh conviction
    +15%Won

    Taken at −650 on DraftKings

    Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • −650 DraftKings price clears the −300 to −1000 prop gate.
    • Hayes recorded 0 RBI in 9 of his last 10 games (90%).
    • Hayes is confirmed batting ninth in the Reds lineup.
    • Hayes has limited RBI opportunity from the ninth spot, but a single productive plate appearance loses the bet.
  4. Atlanta Braves spread −1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Atlanta run differential +0.74/game versus Cincinnati −1.01: 1.75-run team-efficiency gap.
    • Confirmed starters: Chris Sale xERA 3.06 versus Andrew Abbott xERA 5.02; both are listed starters.
    • Atlanta −1.5 loses in a one-run game even if Sale wins the matchup.
  5. Chris Sale over 4.5 strikeoutsFavorite
    +15%Won

    Taken at 87¢ on Kalshi

    High LimboUp 27% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last 10 K counts: 6, 7, 11, 6, 9, 8, 9, 11, 6, 5; median 7.5, minimum 5, trailing max 11, season max 11.
    • Recent fastball state is stable: last three starts averaged 96.12 mph and 2,408 rpm versus 2026 baselines of 96.06 mph and 2,349 rpm.
    • No pitch-count cap or hook guarantee was found; command trouble can end the outing before the mass appears.
  6. Game total over 7.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +104 on FanDuel

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected 8.1 runs; fair total 8.0; Over 7.5 win probability 56.8%; push probability 0% (model run at 5:45 PM CDT; price captured 5:46 PM CDT).
    • Cincinnati lineup posted 5:40 PM CDT: team .3217 xwOBA versus left-handed pitching; Abbott allows .341 xwOBA overall with a 5.02 xERA.
    • Derek Thomas has a 10.65 average total runs and 75% Over-9 rate in 2026; Truist Park factors are 102 runs and 105 home runs.
    • Sale owns a 2.18 ERA, 2.28 FIP, 10.89 K/9 and .271 xwOBA allowed; a deep dominant start can strand the total.
  7. Andrew Abbott 4+ strikeouts: No
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model: 3.3 Ks from 4.15 projected IP; Abbott owns a 7.1 season K/9 and 8.4 L3 K/9.
    • Confirmed Atlanta lineup: 291 Ks in 1,454 PA versus lefties (20%), below the 22% contact-heavy cutoff.
    • Last four pitch counts: 98, 43, 58, 68; only one reached 80, three were below 70.
    • Abbott’s latest start was 98 pitches; a restored normal leash could produce 5+ strikeouts.
  8. Game total under 7 runs
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Under 7 pushes/refunds at exactly 7 runs; it loses there only if priced as a half-point under.
    • The under-7.5 quote is venue self-reference, not an independent sharp probability; ProphetX may already price the push option correctly.
  9. Atlanta Braves run line −1Favorite
    0%Push

    Taken at 65¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Braves −1 pushes on a one-run win; adjacent Braves −1.5 loses on that same margin.
    • Braves −1 still loses on every Atlanta loss; only an exact one-run Atlanta win pushes.
  10. Chris Sale over 15.5 outs recorded
    +120%Won

    Taken at +120 on FanDuel

    +EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Estimated true probability 61%; BetMGM devigged reference is 43.4%, a 17.6-point gap.
    • Sale has completed at least 6.0 innings in each of his last 6 starts.
    • His season workload is 6.0 innings and 96.75 pitches per start.
    • Over 15.5 requires six complete innings, so one abbreviated inning or traffic can lose it.
  11. Atlanta Braves first-five to win (first 5 innings)Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −290 on FanDuel

    The Core 6 Independent SyndicateDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Abbott: 5.02 xERA and .341 xwOBA allowed; Sale: 3.06 xERA and .271 xwOBA allowed.
    • Sale owns 10.89 K/9 and 19 quality starts in 26 starts; Abbott has 7.08 K/9 and 11 quality starts in 31.
    • Confirmed lineups are posted; Atlanta's .3056 xwOBA versus lefties is materially better than Cincinnati's .3217 profile against lefties only in a weaker pitcher matchup.
    • Abbott's 2026 season ERA is 4.75, but a sharper-than-season start can erase the matchup edge.
  12. Game total runs over 7
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection corroborates: Derek Thomas carries 9.74 average runs; park factors are 102 runs and 105 home runs.
    • Sharp reference agrees: Pinnacle shows 7 runs, over −116. Board as_of_pt: 2026-09-23T15:42:03-07:00.
    • Chris Sale has a 2.18 season ERA and 2.98 current-game feature xFIP.

Questions

Who won Reds vs. Braves?

The Braves won 3-2 on Wednesday, Sep 23, 2026.

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